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What 2011 Holds for Sirius XM
Looked over the past 4 Quarterly earnings periods. This is what I saw.
FEB 25, 2010
Run up began 8 trading days before reporting date for a gain of 26%. The price peaked 2 days before reporting. The price began to fall the day before reporting and didnt stop for 4 days.
May 4th, 2010
Run up began 14 days out for a gain of 28%. Peaked day before earnings at 1.23 but hit 1.20 3 days before. Price began to fall the day before reporting and didn't stop for 4 days. *Keep in mind that the month of April the share price climb steady. April 1= .84 April 30=1.18 but there was a marked up swwing beginning the 13th.
Aug 4th, 2010
Run up began 8 out for a gain of 11%. Peaked the day of earnings. Price began to fall two days after earnings and didn't stop for 5 days. * Keep in mind that Aug earnings was very lack luster as it relates to share price reaction.
Nov 4th, 2010
Run up began 10 days out for a gain of 20%. Peaked 2 days before reporting date. Price began to drop on the 9th and contined for 6 days. *Interesting price action on the two trading days after reporting date.
Price change from beginning of run up to peak.
I could say that once I decided the price is running up, which has averaged 10 days prior to reporting date, wait till It goes up .20-.25 then this should be your peak of the run.
AVG run up is 10 days before reporting
AVG peak share price is 2 days before reporting
AVG retrace is 5.25 days
There are two exit points the peak and then just slightly lower than that 2 or 3 days prior to the peak.
All of this is very subjective of course. Please chime in and give me some thoughts.
Jan 20 08:59 AM
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