Tesla Motors (TSLA +14.6%) tightens its grip on the shorts, now up 43% in 2 days following Wednesday's earnings. Ivan Hoff extrapolates into the future and suggests Tesla could be a $100B company in 10 years (that's all?). Musk's SolarCity (SCTY +9.4%) gains as well. [View news story]
There is no need to set up a straw man of my arguments. When I said somewhat questionable, I did not mean illegal -- there are plenty of ways a company can book revenues, address its PPE, and draw out tax payments that make financial statements look rosier than they would under a different methodology. Tesla uses these accounting practices, which is neither here nor there, I am just a little surprised nobody brought it up in a discussion of the company's quarterly results.
A (highly optimistic) ceiling of a million cars is laughable, given as there were 250+ million actively driven vehicles in the US in 2007 and likely more today, but that's really not the point, is it? The point is that unless I make an expensive retrofitting effort, I will have few places to charge my electric car in a city as densely populated as New York. I don't doubt that if a financial incentive is there, a nationwide, convenient, and cheap network of charging stations will spring up, a la Europe, but that future is probably at least ten years down the road. Longer, if the country hits a recessionary bump or two along the way.
Tesla Motors (TSLA +14.6%) tightens its grip on the shorts, now up 43% in 2 days following Wednesday's earnings. Ivan Hoff extrapolates into the future and suggests Tesla could be a $100B company in 10 years (that's all?). Musk's SolarCity (SCTY +9.4%) gains as well. [View news story]
I am not in the stock on either side, but I've been watching Tesla since the early prototypes way back and isn't anybody concerned about the company's somewhat questionable accounting practices? Or the fact that electric cars are a rarity for a good reason: because the national infrastructure will not catch up to the technology for many years at the most optimistic?
More on the Q1 GDP (first estimate) miss: Government spending slowdown continues, with real federal government spending off 8.4% vs. 14.8% in Q4; defense spending off 11.5% vs. 22.1%. Real PCE +3.2%. Nonresidential fixed investment +2.1%. Real exports +2.9%, Real imports +5.4%. Real final sales +1.5% vs. 1.9% in Q4. Inventories added 103 bps to GDP in Q1 after subtracting 152 bps in Q4. SPY -0.3% premarket. The long bond pops half of a point. TLT +0.8% premarket. (full report) [View news story]
This was not a bad report -- the unexpected part was the resilience of the consumer sector, a positive. Please, all of you bears, go and sell, so that I could pick up a few excellent stocks at throwaway prices.
Ready for the "iRing"? After meeting with hardware suppliers in China and Taiwan, Brian White believes Apple (AAPL) will launch a TV this year with a ring accessory allowing a user to control the set by pointing their finger. White also sees the iTV coming with a 9.7" mini iTV screen to be used for things such as home security, phone calls, and video conferencing. [View news story]
Pretty nice. The second reading is only 40% of the survey, but it managed to move the gauge in a meaningful way. However, this survey is mostly influenced by gas prices and the stock market, so I wouldn't read too much into it.
21 BDCs - The Good, The Bad And The Maybe? Part 17: Gladstone Capital [View article]
When I was compiling my own list of potential BDC acquisitions two years ago, I listened to three of the latest Gladstone earnings calls. To any person who is considering this stock, I recommend doing the same. David Gladstone is definitely a character and I found myself disagreeing with pretty much everything he said about the economic and market fundamentals. If my only investment option was Gladstone, I'd keep my money in cash.
iWatch? iTV? Apple's Innovation Death A Media Construct [View article]
For what it's worth, I never felt that the success of modern Apple was due to the company being this great innovator. Apple engineers excel at taking existing concepts/products and repackaging them in an amazingly appealing way, but nothing they've done in the past ten years had been really "new" in a physical sense.
So, I am not waiting for Apple to come up with a completely new product. I just want them to continue doing what they have been doing -- introduce a less expensive mass market phone to appeal to a wider foreign customer base, build up the app universe and connect it to other virtual pieces, etc. Even if Apple is past its meteoric growth phase, there are plenty of companies with middling growth prospects trading for an 18-20X multiple of trailing earnings. Apple has plenty of value, I just wish its day-to-day operations got less hype.
Comparing Kors to Coach is apples to oranges. Kors is an aggressive multi-channel retailer that has expanded into everything known to man, from high end bags to low end puffer jackets. Coach is mostly a handbag brand and controls its retail outlets to a greater degree. Even setting aside a more established brand image and much wider customer base, Coach to me has more of an upside, expansion-wise than Kors does.
More on Case-Shiller: Home prices (the 20-city composite) gained 6.8% for all of 2012, the best performance since 2006. However, with prices on the upswing for nearly a full year now, the days of easy comparisons are over. "The strongest numbers may have already been seen," says S&P's David Blitzer. SPY +0.5%, QQQ +0.3% premarket. (full report) [View news story]
Untrue. Those laid off were hired temporarily to deal with the 2008-2009 mortgage remediations. These workers had nothing to do with the regular "bread-and-butter" mortgage operations.
Coach has been on my watchlist a long time and for lots of reasons I don't feel MK is taking away significant market share or will be a serious threat in the future. However, let's say you take Chinese growth away or even cut it in half. How does Coach stack up then?
Tesla Motors (TSLA +14.6%) tightens its grip on the shorts, now up 43% in 2 days following Wednesday's earnings. Ivan Hoff extrapolates into the future and suggests Tesla could be a $100B company in 10 years (that's all?). Musk's SolarCity (SCTY +9.4%) gains as well. [View news story]
A (highly optimistic) ceiling of a million cars is laughable, given as there were 250+ million actively driven vehicles in the US in 2007 and likely more today, but that's really not the point, is it? The point is that unless I make an expensive retrofitting effort, I will have few places to charge my electric car in a city as densely populated as New York. I don't doubt that if a financial incentive is there, a nationwide, convenient, and cheap network of charging stations will spring up, a la Europe, but that future is probably at least ten years down the road. Longer, if the country hits a recessionary bump or two along the way.
Investing In Increased Tattoo Removal With Cynosure [View article]
Tesla Motors (TSLA +14.6%) tightens its grip on the shorts, now up 43% in 2 days following Wednesday's earnings. Ivan Hoff extrapolates into the future and suggests Tesla could be a $100B company in 10 years (that's all?). Musk's SolarCity (SCTY +9.4%) gains as well. [View news story]
Revising The Calculation Of GDP: Fuzzy Accounting Raises Red Flags [View article]
More on the Q1 GDP (first estimate) miss: Government spending slowdown continues, with real federal government spending off 8.4% vs. 14.8% in Q4; defense spending off 11.5% vs. 22.1%. Real PCE +3.2%. Nonresidential fixed investment +2.1%. Real exports +2.9%, Real imports +5.4%. Real final sales +1.5% vs. 1.9% in Q4. Inventories added 103 bps to GDP in Q1 after subtracting 152 bps in Q4. SPY -0.3% premarket. The long bond pops half of a point. TLT +0.8% premarket. (full report) [View news story]
Ready for the "iRing"? After meeting with hardware suppliers in China and Taiwan, Brian White believes Apple (AAPL) will launch a TV this year with a ring accessory allowing a user to control the set by pointing their finger. White also sees the iTV coming with a 9.7" mini iTV screen to be used for things such as home security, phone calls, and video conferencing. [View news story]
Mar. Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment: 78.6 vs. 72.5 expected and 71.8 prior. [View news story]
21 BDCs - The Good, The Bad And The Maybe? Part 17: Gladstone Capital [View article]
Mar. Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment: 71.8 vs. 77.5 expected and 77.6 prior. [View news story]
The Stagnation Behind The Excellent Jobs Report [View article]
iWatch? iTV? Apple's Innovation Death A Media Construct [View article]
So, I am not waiting for Apple to come up with a completely new product. I just want them to continue doing what they have been doing -- introduce a less expensive mass market phone to appeal to a wider foreign customer base, build up the app universe and connect it to other virtual pieces, etc. Even if Apple is past its meteoric growth phase, there are plenty of companies with middling growth prospects trading for an 18-20X multiple of trailing earnings. Apple has plenty of value, I just wish its day-to-day operations got less hype.
Michael Kors Or Coach? [View article]
Unexpected Value In Coach [View article]
More on Case-Shiller: Home prices (the 20-city composite) gained 6.8% for all of 2012, the best performance since 2006. However, with prices on the upswing for nearly a full year now, the days of easy comparisons are over. "The strongest numbers may have already been seen," says S&P's David Blitzer. SPY +0.5%, QQQ +0.3% premarket. (full report) [View news story]
7 Reasons To Love Coach [View article]