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deeef

deeef
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  • Is Las Vegas Sands A Buy For 2013? [View article]
    A crackdown on huge sums of money being laundered through Macau will deflate the LVS thesis. Most commentary is saying that will "never happen." Time will tell as new Communist party leader, Xi Jinping settles into office.
    Sorry, but Las Vegas is not part of the growth story for LVS.
    Jan 3 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital Management Uses Bond Capital Gains To Support Dividend [View article]
    Good article. Two words: reinvestment risk.
    Aug 2 07:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks Is Ready For A Repeat Of 2008-2009 [View article]
    When GDP in developed markets is 1.5% (U.S.) and negative in Europe, growth companies will slow as well. Realize that GDP slowing from 2.5% to 1.5% is a 40% change!

    It's funny that there was so much discussion about seattle's best until someone pointed out that SBUX owns that brand. So much for expert articles on Seeking Alpha.
    Jul 26 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Tower: Trouble Ahead, Trouble Behind [View article]
    Great research and commentary! So many points made well. The deep dive is needed in order to identify these short stories. AMT doesn't stand up well to scrutiny, especially their international push in light of the taxes they're paying vis a vis the REIT election. With a targeted annual distribution of $0.80 - $0.90 (slide 15 of their Q4 presentation), the stock has a puny 1.3% yield. That's just too low for a company whose recent debt refinancing got a grade one step above junk from Fitch.
    Mar 5 03:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude oil continues to march higher, May WTI taking out the $110/barrel level last seen in the summer of 2008 (it was on the way down then). OPEC contends the market is well supplied and thus cannot do anything to relieve prices. Perhaps Jeff Rubin and others are right and OPEC has no spare capacity. USO +1.4%.  [View news story]
    Perhaps it's because Iran is in charge of OPEC for the first time in 36 years and they don't mind inflicting some pain.
    Apr 7 01:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Analysts Can Make an Accurate Presentation of Free Cash Flow [View article]
    You can use reported Capex or calculate your own using a broader definition of capital expended. The calculation is
    Book Value end of year (shareholder equity) - BV beginning of yr + Depreciation. That captures some off balance sheet items like operating lease obligations, standing purchase obligations, etc and provides a clearer picture when calculating unlevered free cash flow.
    Apr 7 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Refining Stocks' Rally Likely to Stall Temporarily [View article]
    Thanks for the article, Ian. It's the short term that is more bullish however, due to the glut at Cushing. West Texas Intermediate has been enjoying a WTI/Brent discount and Valero is in a sweet spot. The company is currently exporting refined product. You are correctly watching the crack spread but right now the trend is your friend in the refining space. Until it's not.
    Feb 16 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China MediaExpress: A Shift in Perception, Not Fundamentals [View article]
    This begins to sound like a question of religious belief.

    Interesting insight can be gleaned by reading the SEC filings put out by the original SPAC (special purpose acquisition company), TM Entertainment. Formed in 2007 when these investment vehicles peaked, by late 2008 it had not found a company in which to invest. A large shareholder launched a proxy fight, seeking to have the company dissolved and funds ($81 million) returned to investors. The fight got nastier and a special shareholder meeting was set, the likely result being the return of funds. Suddenly, voila! A company was found in which to invest! Nevermind that the principal office listed for the company (Hong Kong Mandefu Holding Limited) was a hotel room in Hong Kong. TM Entertainment had achieved what it set out to do, and was able to cancel the shareholder meeting, the dispute with the activist shareholder settled. The financial engineering could begin in earnest.

    You're absolutely right, nothing has changed.
    Feb 7 03:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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