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  • Sentiment Charts Show Blood Flowing In The Street As SPY Was Down 14%  [View article]
    Hi

    I am trying to analyze the CBOE put call ratio and find that it is not very supportive of trend indication.
    Correct me and help me understand why it is a trend indicator.
    I looked up data from 2007 to 2016- 21.02.16
    Built it up into daily, weekly, monthly, yearly charts and find that at the end of Dec 2015 there was no indication that the world would fall apart in January.
    Furthermore, looking at 2008 as a base for what if situations, the pc ratio was not that high.
    In conclusion, for every put a call is bought or sold and vice versa. Hence the indicator is not very trend indicative as it acts more like a hedge.
    TAKE A LOOK AT THE CHARTS
    http://bit.ly/1nDncUO
    http://bit.ly/1nDncUR
    http://bit.ly/1nDnawh
    http://bit.ly/1nDnawj
    http://bit.ly/1nDnawl
    http://bit.ly/1nDncUV
    http://bit.ly/1nDnawr
    Jan 22, 2016. 09:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Update For The S&P 500: Is It Time To 'Buy The Dip' Or 'Sell The Rally'?  [View article]
    Hey, anyone! If you look at the CBOE website they publish the put call ratio going back to 2007. Now if you look at 2008 then the put call ratio was never higher than 1,17/1,20 which we saw this January. I don't get it. If the market falls then wouldn't it imply puts should be flying off the counter as opposed to calls? The put call ratio in 2008 should have been crazy? Please shed some light as I spent today going through data from 2006 to date! I think a reversal is in store short term as markets are over sold currently. The trend is negative but a 5% reprieve is in the making, maybe a dead cat bounce!
    Jan 21, 2016. 05:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • All eyes on ECB and Draghi news conference  [View news story]
    How can a bank do monetary policy and the stocks exchanges are all trading below the start date from exactly a year ago!!!! Wicked policy or we all should be long! I think his words only will trigger a rally today, a rally that will start a short squeeze.
    Jan 21, 2016. 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mondelez's Valuation Is Beyond Reason At This Point  [View article]
    I think 36 would be better.....but now it is s great stock and Bill Ackerman might up his stakes too...
    Jan 20, 2016. 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Schwab Reports Record Quarterly Net Income of $416 Million, Up 19%  [View article]
    Reads great! Lets see how the stock reacts.
    Jan 19, 2016. 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Update For The S&P 500: Is It Time To 'Buy The Dip' Or 'Sell The Rally'?  [View article]
    6.9% GDP is still huge and if it was 10% then it would be a warning......China is ok, Oil and the strong USD are now problems. Iran is ok as it opens a huge market for European sales......There is still no panic and when that happens then the floor will open and stocks will fall like dominos....China still has QE options and hence the floor should not fall....hope it will not :)
    Jan 19, 2016. 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mondelez's Valuation Is Beyond Reason At This Point  [View article]
    Why is book value a reasonable valuation for a company that has consumer brands? I dont think it is! It is of no value unless the brands are dead then the premium is erased.....
    Jan 19, 2016. 08:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mondelez's Valuation Is Beyond Reason At This Point  [View article]
    you buying?
    Jan 19, 2016. 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mondelez's Valuation Is Beyond Reason At This Point  [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1KoYkVN

    It fell! Hahahahaha
    Jan 19, 2016. 08:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China GDP growth sinks to 25-year low  [View news story]
    the shares go up because the market is pricing in a China QE to prop up the economy. Its the future and its called volatility, greater uncertainty about political and economic conditions. Economic fundamental analysis is that the data is in line with what the govt wanted to present and the trend line growth in intact. China will not grow at 10% ever again as that is insane. Stay long as the markets are oversold and we will see a bounce.
    Look at the weekly charts- double bottoms in place and the Chaikin mf is still above 0.10
    http://bit.ly/1StvEmd
    Nasdaq Comp 4493 is a major support and then 4298/4122. Resistance at 4639/4870 and 4961
    http://bit.ly/1StvBXJ
    DJIA 15897 is a major support and then 15416/14750. Resistance at 16945/17346 and 18000
    http://bit.ly/1StvEmf
    SP500 1871 is a major support and then 1824/1739. Resistance at 1968/2036 and 2100
    http://bit.ly/1StvEmh
    dax 9321 is a major support and then 8384/8114. Resistance at 10187/10572 and 11430
    http://bit.ly/1StvCe2
    EurUSD 1.07 is a major support and then 1.05. Resistance at 1.11/1.12 and 1.17
    http://bit.ly/1StvEmj
    Brent it is at the end of the boilinger band and there appears to be no bottoming out 34.36 is the first resistance and then 40.31
    http://bit.ly/1StvEmn
    WTI Crude is at a major support 30.87, resistance at 38.56
    http://bit.ly/1StvEmp
    Gold is trending between 1189 and 1044. Support at 1044 and resistance at 1084/1135 and 1189/1195
    Jan 19, 2016. 05:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Update For The S&P 500: Is It Time To 'Buy The Dip' Or 'Sell The Rally'?  [View article]
    True- Look at the weekly charts- double bottoms in place and the Chaikin mf is still above 0.10
    http://bit.ly/1StvEmd
    Nasdaq Comp 4493 is a major support and then 4298/4122. Resistance at 4639/4870 and 4961
    http://bit.ly/1StvBXJ
    DJIA 15897 is a major support and then 15416/14750. Resistance at 16945/17346 and 18000
    http://bit.ly/1StvEmf
    SP500 1871 is a major support and then 1824/1739. Resistance at 1968/2036 and 2100
    http://bit.ly/1StvEmh
    dax 9321 is a major support and then 8384/8114. Resistance at 10187/10572 and 11430
    http://bit.ly/1StvCe2
    EurUSD 1.07 is a major support and then 1.05. Resistance at 1.11/1.12 and 1.17
    http://bit.ly/1StvEmj
    Brent it is at the end of the boilinger band and there appears to be no bottoming out 34.36 is the first resistance and then 40.31
    http://bit.ly/1StvEmn
    WTI Crude is at a major support 30.87, resistance at 38.56
    http://bit.ly/1StvEmp
    Gold is trending between 1189 and 1044. Support at 1044 and resistance at 1084/1135 and 1189/1195
    Jan 19, 2016. 05:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Update For The S&P 500: Is It Time To 'Buy The Dip' Or 'Sell The Rally'?  [View article]
    Thank you for your time and patience. The Chinese data came out and 5.9% apparently is a bummer but the markets take it as more QE from China. Now Mario has to do something on the 22nd for the markets to shoot up another leg. Is this the bottom? On a Dax monthly chart it looks like a double bottom. Brent is up, USD is down, Today the Dax is up, a close above 9990 would signal a bullish reversal, leaving the DJIA to close above 16560 for a bullish signal. Nasdaq 4715 this week?
    Jan 19, 2016. 03:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Update For The S&P 500: Is It Time To 'Buy The Dip' Or 'Sell The Rally'?  [View article]
    I was really hoping you would try to shine some light on my open questions as I really think we are all overly positive, maybe because we are not short and missed that boat that sailed in April, May 2015!
    Jan 18, 2016. 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Update For The S&P 500: Is It Time To 'Buy The Dip' Or 'Sell The Rally'?  [View article]
    Iran out of embargo, China GDP data at 9:00 tonight, if that is below 6.5% then expect markets to continue selling. All of us are overly positive and that is how recessions occur. I watched the peaks and the troughs and now am also a long term investor, is that not convenient? 23% since May 2015 does not scare you? I also like you believe we are not in a recession and this market does not look like a recession but then China was growing for the last 20 years and that protected us all. Today the equation has changed:
    1. China growth- wait for GDP data
    2. Saudia Iran oil war- outcome uncertain but all the loans taken out from the banks to build shale are going bad!
    3. markets are dishing out symmetrical information for the Saudis as they control the price of oil. I thought market are asymmetrical but if the Saudis control the price of oil then they can be rigging the markets and buying US companies to change their dependency on oil in the future?
    4. Lastly US economy growing but real wage growth stagnating? Unemployment numbers skewed?
    5. Are the FEDs going to start easing again and loose face?

    If I was a trader I would be short equities but I am not so I suffer with you! All this about hedging is a zero sum game, how can one buy protection if the markets have already fallen and if I had bought protection before then my profits would have been eroded.
    Fear has set in and the rug can be pulled anytime, I hope not!!!!
    Last thoughts how could the FED raise rates if they knew that Irans embargo would be lifted? Mario Draghi hopefully will announce more QE europe on 22nd Jan and that could be a catalyst that could save us from this bear market. China jumps in after that to save their markets with their QE increase.....otherwise how will this market change course?
    Jan 18, 2016. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can A Drone Save GoPro?  [View article]
    growth stock? they are cutting estimates and firing 7% people! 2015 sales forecast cut. What growth?
    Jan 14, 2016. 08:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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