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  • PayPal: Interesting At $44 Billion [View article]

    We expect PayPal to reprice considerably upwards on its first day as an
    independent company. Buying pre
    split is the key to owning PayPal at a
    cheap price.
    But...and there’s always a but. In buying pre
    split one must feel comfortable
    taking the risk of Marketplaces. We are happy to take on this risk.
    If PayPal trades upwards of $40 per
    share (which we think it will),
    Marketplaces would likely trade in the low $20s. This means that
    proportionally speaking, shares bought today are not ½ each, but more like
    2/3rds PayPal and 1/3

    One of the reasons Greenblatt looks
    at spins
    is for situations where the
    owners of the
    parent company
    have no interest in the spun asset. In some senses, the spun asset
    here is Marketplaces.
    So, those
    today to
    get access to PayPal
    spin will
    become sellers of Marketplaces once the spin is done.

    As someone comfortable with the Marketplaces risk, this means we are underweight
    our desired target holding on that side of the business.

    To that end, we expect to provide liquidity to those who only want PayPal and no
    Marketplaces once actual event transpires. This is the second leg of what altogether is
    an outstanding opportunity.
    Jul 20, 2015. 09:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell eBay, Buy PayPal [View article]
    100% of Paypal will be distributed to ebay shareholders 1:1 ie. the delta between Ebay and Paypal will be the opening price. Hence the only sellers will be OLD ebay shareholders selling everything to take profit on the whole deal, Old ebay shareholders selling Paypal to take a huge profit but have more than 50% loss on their ebay stock (this scenario is highly unlikely) and lastly a huge market of buyers pushing up the price for paypal stock.....its going to be a party, I think.
    Jul 20, 2015. 08:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • PayPal: Interesting At $44 Billion [View article]
    Its the delta between Paypal and 30 USD
    Jul 20, 2015. 02:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PayPal: Interesting At $44 Billion [View article]
    Awesome well articulated article.
    Where did you the required returns from and what are the returns from visa, mastercard?

    What is the probability that a whole lot of EBAY shareholders will sell both Ebay and Paypal stock on the first day of trading? My understanding is that the delta between EBAY - PAYPAL stock price will be the price of ebay. Implying that the paypal price prior to trading is just a buffer for profit taking. Flush out all the existing ebay shareholders with their paypal stock in order for them to profit and then a new bunch of investors in only Paypal. Ebay is a deadduck with paypal and now that they are offloading other business segments it leaves not much of a party with ebay stock?
    Jul 16, 2015. 07:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: China's Tsinghua Unigroup bids $21/share for Micron [View news story]
    IF VOLUME EXCEEDS 50 MILLION THEN this will send out a momentum signal!
    Jul 14, 2015. 05:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: China's Tsinghua Unigroup bids $21/share for Micron [View news story]
    THE Shorts have 2.5 days to cover as the average is 25 million..............not much but market participants are in favour of MU as the short interest is only 5% of the float. This can be the catalyst for MU to take off......
    Jul 14, 2015. 05:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: China's Tsinghua Unigroup bids $21/share for Micron [View news story]
    Chinese talking Yen? Yuan :) I guess!
    Jul 14, 2015. 04:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: China's Tsinghua Unigroup bids $21/share for Micron [View news story]
    no way! Profit taking from traders but the the shorts just got wiped out and short covering will start pushing the stock up, up and up! 10:15 it is. One GERMAN beer coming your way and if I am right then a shelby S Snake please send....
    Jul 14, 2015. 04:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: China's Tsinghua Unigroup bids $21/share for Micron [View news story]
    if is the key word just like every other company in the world......
    Jul 14, 2015. 04:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: China's Tsinghua Unigroup bids $21/share for Micron [View news story]
    The Game is on! Micron is in play and the host of companies that could be interested range from Mr China low balling co. to apple, google and facebok which would greatly benefit from owning MU. The 21 USD is a joke and it will be rejected today! 35- 45 USD incl. premium! Dont forget MU is down ~50%.
    Jul 14, 2015. 04:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Micron: The Purple Swan [View article]
    I love saturday!
    Jun 26, 2015. 12:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Micron: The Purple Swan [View article]
    Hey Zealot, I am in stocks for the best returns and am now sitting on 20% losses on this investment. That would translate into a wait for next quarter plus this pending law suit to come out in our favour.

    In my last two posts the charts showed me the direction was down as there was no upwards momentum being created pre earnings and my stomach said that this article and all the contributors to it as a majority knew something. Maybe that is right but in an investment horizon I should have got out with a .20 cent profit and waited for confirmation of a turnaround instead of having a 20% paper loss in the short term.

    I would say that all of the positive writers here, in my opinion, are in it for the long term, are retired or retiring and maybe have no need for income stocks. No offense to anyone intended.

    FOR ME investing is getting it right riding an upwards trend and trying to time reversal. I have a good track record and bought last week FB, MBLY (sold), UHS, Gild (SOLD) AGIO up from 94 to 120 and now back in. MU was the underdog and I got greedy and made a call that gave me a 2% return but then my greed got the better off me even though the signal was there it was going to get hammered.

    The Charts are not backward looking but forward as they take all information and build it into a forward price and this stagnation by MU around 24 was a clear give away.

    The pt of 34/36 usd I assume takes all the information into account in this article and the rally would start when the law suit is decided.

    Anyway, it is a risk on risk off world, getting disappointed is part of the exercise.
    One disgruntled investor today, tomorrow is a new day. New investments.....
    Have a great weekend everyone.
    Jun 26, 2015. 10:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Micron: The Purple Swan [View article]
    I dont get it! Why are all of you so positive? The Stock chart looks dead and you sing praises of it! Please explain the positivity?
    Jun 26, 2015. 03:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Micron: The Purple Swan [View article]
    Wow, stock has not moved much into earnings apart from falling to its 52 week low, great price point to buy if expecting it to beat earnings and revenue expectation vs q4 last year. But it is a contrarian view as the majority expect it to fall hence it fell. The chart is forming a bottom and it should have moved up. It did not. Uncertainty is a mother of all!
    "on average, MU has posted a one-day move of 5.3% in the session adjacent to its last eight quarterly reports. Based on the equity's near-term ATM straddle, a 6.6% shift is expected this time around." Schaeffers view
    Jun 25, 2015. 07:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece showdown: Tsipras given ultimatum [View news story]
    So much noise over 1.5 billion, default remember 2012! This Is all show, noise, stock markets are just meandering on this 1.5 billion expectation.
    What my expectations are in the remaining year:
    1. Greece saved from default
    2. Stock markets 10% up until September until first o.025% interest rate hike, a pebble in a sea, markets fall on this incredible useless news which they have had two years to price in
    3. Markets rise into December with turbulence in Europe, China bubble, UK exit from Eu discussions and greece exit back on table.

    What to buy on a dip: twx, cvs, FB,aapl, unh, bib, mdt, Googl, psx and Ba.
    Jun 25, 2015. 07:21 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment