Mar. Nonfarm Payrolls: +120K vs. consensus of +201K, prior 227K. Unemployment 8.2% vs 8.3% expected. Average workweek 34.5 in-line with expectations. Average hourly earnings 0.2% in-line with expectations. [View news story]
3-5% correction expected.....instead of May, better to sell and go away now....damn all that profit from Jan-March 12% slowly getting eroded...
The Eurogroup statement on Spain: "The loan will be scaled to provide an effective backstop covering for all possible capital requirements ... with an additional margin of safety up to €100B in total ... the Fund for Orderly Restructuring (FROB), acting as agent of the Spanish government, could receive the funds and channel them to the financial institutions concerned." [View news story]
What a joke....the spainish are playing low ball saying they need 40 billion to bail out their banks and the govt acts as sponsors (guarantors/ interest payees) and the EU finance ministers say that they can give 100 billion Euros. Seriously, did we not hear this in 2007/2008- so bear sterns, lehman brothers, AIG, Northern Rock, Bank of Scotland and a bunch of other banks went down. What we talking about housing bubble amongst other things. What is Spain- a huge housing bubble so 40 billion to capitalise their banks is a joke...CDS must be in abundance and whoever is betting on US banks might make money in the short term but in the long run banks are betting where the risk is high and loosing sometimes like the London whale (Did not JPM say 1 billion and now its 5 billion). Give me a break short the Eurousd and the DAX instead and go long the USD and buy gold @ 1480(speculative)..... The chinese in my view are doing just that: largest holder of USD reserves, will probably devalue their currency and then convert their USD reserves in yuan or use the USD to buy European assets which are cheap with a rising USD. They are also the worlds largest buyers of Gold.....so they are stocking their reserve in case the US stop printing USD which is not happening in the short term, if anything the Central bank will print more USD in July/August.....before elections are over....
Seeking Alpha welcomes its 1 millionth member! That's a community 1M strong (and counting) of your fellow investors, reading, blogging and chatting about where to invest. To celebrate our million users, imagine you have $1M in play money to put where you like; use the comments on this post to tell us what stocks, ETFs or other investments would get your allocations - and how you use Seeking Alpha to help make those decisions. [View news story]
Seeking Alpha is the most awesome website for live updates and breaking news, I love it and my favourite watchlist is comprised after checking the stocks with seeking alpha regarding earnings, broker updates etc. Take a look at my current favourite watch list.... http://on.fb.me/Hb8ARw sorry for the link but I could not type in all the names....this list is a list of explosive European and US stocks that are/should be breaking out...... seeking alpha rocks and congrats for the 1 millionth customer......Germany has already started it's own version of seeking alpha but it is still not as fast......
Really well written, where these other gems that you are buying. My take on apple- The q2 guidance is range bound and leaves no room for an upside, secondly as it is range bound there is no estimate on EPS. Technically, the bottom is the beginning of 2012 take off, exactly one year ago. The gap up because of q1 results was never closed and 426 USD would close that gap. http://bit.ly/14eXUNS
A Complete Financial Analysis Of Apple [View article]
Awesome article. The q2 guidance is range bound and leaves no room for an upside, secondly as it is range bound there is no estimate on EPS. Technically, the bottom is the beginning of 2012 take off, exactly one year ago. The gap up because of q1 results was never closed and 426 USD would close that gap. http://bit.ly/14eXUNS
A little more on Deutsche/Apple: The firm notes Japanese analyst Yasuo Nakane has long been cautious about FQ2 (March quarter) iPhone builds, and thinks the consensus for FQ2 iPhone sales has fallen to around 37M. The U.S. team thinks Nakane's estimates (45M builds in FQ1, 28M-30M in FQ2) implies upside to his FQ1 sales forecast, and downside to his FQ2 forecast. Meanwhile, his forecast for 17M-19M FQ2 iPad builds implies upside to an FQ2 forecast for sales of 15M. [View news story]
Not entirely accurate as the android operating system in sold smart phones can be estimated....
A little more on Deutsche/Apple: The firm notes Japanese analyst Yasuo Nakane has long been cautious about FQ2 (March quarter) iPhone builds, and thinks the consensus for FQ2 iPhone sales has fallen to around 37M. The U.S. team thinks Nakane's estimates (45M builds in FQ1, 28M-30M in FQ2) implies upside to his FQ1 sales forecast, and downside to his FQ2 forecast. Meanwhile, his forecast for 17M-19M FQ2 iPad builds implies upside to an FQ2 forecast for sales of 15M. [View news story]
Let Negative Sentiment Help You Get Long Apple [View article]
Nice article, very well thought through. My two cents on apple earnings-. Apple has already lost 12% to date which is the correction one would expect if it does not beat expectations-Upside 10 downside 5 to 7% looking only at 2012 earnings which actually in my opinion reflect the multpile new upgrades and products. Taking iPad sales and then new iPhone sales into account the results for this quarter should be normally better due to presales compared to sales in the previous quarters. Also after yesterday new ipad mini and new upgraded ipad and new imac it would appear that apple is reinventing itself and going into shorter product cycles becuase it is an invention company which outsources all production hence reducing fixed costs and inventories. Margins might decrease but as long as sales grow and profits increase everything else is illusionary.
Having said that, the overall markets are correcting and apple is along for the ride. I would expect a price Movement of 630 prior to announcement of results before it being blown up or down. I believe that the ride will be upside as the new products and pricing tend to prove that apple has no fear with their sales growth and earning growth.
Take this years quarterly results - Jan 24, 8% after market rise (in a very bullish overall market) followed by a 46% rise into April. Following overall General market movement look at S&P 500. We are currently priced at exactly the day after the April results came out and that was a upside of 11% followed by a ride down 15% and the S&P also went down 10% followed by a ride up starting June of 2012 up 12% for the S&P and 35% for apple. July apple had a good quarter but fell 5% but do not forget it was already up with the overall market 16% and then regained to chalk up another 20%. Long story short markets are correcting and are not yet near their possible retracement- 1393 for the S&P which fits nicely with a 586 for apple. I expect apple to move up and then fall with the overall market. Apple day trading 630 then falling to 586. What do you think? Would appreciate your feedback? Thanks
A Hedged Approach To Trading Apple Earnings This Time Around [View article]
"October has delivered a split with 3 positive versus two negative changes. " Nice article but I think that your data analysis is incorrect as you have not taken into effect that in this year alone apple came out with favorable results beating analysts expectation and then took a 5 % to 10% dive. If you lock this into your statistics then you will have different results. Apple has already lost 12% to date which is the correction one would expect if it does not beat expectations-Upside 10 downside 5 to 7%. Taking iPad sales and then new iPhone sales into account the results for this quarter should be normally better due to presales compared to sales in the previous quarters. The overall markets are correcting and apple is along for the ride. I would expect a price Movement of 630 prior to announcement of results before it being blown up or down. I believe that the ride will be upside as the new products and pricing tend to prove that apple has no fear with their sales growth and earning growth. Take this years results which are not included in your analysis. Jan 24, 8% after market rise followed by a 46% rise into April. General market movement look at S&P 500. We are currently priced at exactly the day after the April results came out and that was a upside of 11% followed by a ride down 15% and the S&P also went down 10% followed by a ride up starting June of 2012 up 12% for the S&P and 35% for apple. July apple had a good quarter but fell 5% but do not forget it was already up with the overall market 16% and then regained to chalk up another 20%. Long story short markets are correcting and are not yet near their possible retracement- 1393 for the S&P which fits nicely with a 586 for apple. I expect apple to move up and then fall with the overall market.
The Eurogroup statement on Spain: "The loan will be scaled to provide an effective backstop covering for all possible capital requirements ... with an additional margin of safety up to €100B in total ... the Fund for Orderly Restructuring (FROB), acting as agent of the Spanish government, could receive the funds and channel them to the financial institutions concerned." [View news story]
What a rally, Europe opened so high that I almost fell of my chair....(I wanted to short but PEER pressure killed me) but now I get it, profit taken, bond prices rose to new highs and the rally died, Euro back up vs the USD, that I FIND ridiculous as there is no OpTwist or QE3 before next month.....so what we waiting for- the Greeks to act :)
The conventional wisdom says risk markets rally Monday in Pavlovian response to the latest bailout, but the news may be baked in: Spain (EWP) was 10% higher last week, the S&P 500 +4%. Is the rescue even good news? "Spain is the Rubicon that should have never been crossed," says Nicholas Spiro. "A limited bailout for Spain (will) fail to restore confidence in the markets, (and) could fuel fears that more aid will be needed at a later stage (with Italy waiting in the wings)." [View news story]
Money makes the world go around, rumours make the world hyperdrive. Southern Europe is drowning, Northern Europe has Germany its powerhouse and France which is socialist, everything else is minute in their offering. Euro/USD has to fall for Europe to be able to export like a powerhouse- so why is it rallying? If Spain is going to be bailed out with a 100 billion Euro rescue packet (only its banks) then why is the Euro rallying? One of you mentioned that traders bought on Friday that is true but the volumes were very low, so it was not a majority that bought. Europe will open before the US is true but the markets open in Japan first then down Asia Pacific before Europe. China has to come out with data supporting its interest rate cut, apparently that is suppose to be really bad....Did some one say Gold, well that only rallys when the USD is falling and the last I checked America is supposedly growing (Beige book) and not printing more money. So my logic is telling me short the Euro and the DAX and go long the USD while waiting for Gold to fall to 1480 before contemplating buying it as security....
If Greece exits the eurozone, writes The Tell, the EU should consider replacing it with Turkey. The country's speedy growth and youthful demographics would help a union sorely in need of both. One wonders if the reason Turkey's economy is perky (even overheating) is because it's not part of the eurozone. The EU may want the country, but has anybody checked with Ankara? [View news story]
Alongside a wave of regulatory investigations hitting market sentiment this afternoon, former Greek PM Papademos tells Dow Jones preparations for Greece exiting the euro are being considered; the risk of leaving is real. Estimates of a cost of €500B-€1T underscore the magnitude of the consequences, he says. [View news story]
if Greece exits then portugal, Spain and Italy are next in line.....everyone stays at the party especially if Germany is paying for it..
Mar. Nonfarm Payrolls: +120K vs. consensus of +201K, prior 227K. Unemployment 8.2% vs 8.3% expected. Average workweek 34.5 in-line with expectations. Average hourly earnings 0.2% in-line with expectations. [View news story]
The Eurogroup statement on Spain: "The loan will be scaled to provide an effective backstop covering for all possible capital requirements ... with an additional margin of safety up to €100B in total ... the Fund for Orderly Restructuring (FROB), acting as agent of the Spanish government, could receive the funds and channel them to the financial institutions concerned." [View news story]
The chinese in my view are doing just that: largest holder of USD reserves, will probably devalue their currency and then convert their USD reserves in yuan or use the USD to buy European assets which are cheap with a rising USD. They are also the worlds largest buyers of Gold.....so they are stocking their reserve in case the US stop printing USD which is not happening in the short term, if anything the Central bank will print more USD in July/August.....before elections are over....
Seeking Alpha welcomes its 1 millionth member! That's a community 1M strong (and counting) of your fellow investors, reading, blogging and chatting about where to invest. To celebrate our million users, imagine you have $1M in play money to put where you like; use the comments on this post to tell us what stocks, ETFs or other investments would get your allocations - and how you use Seeking Alpha to help make those decisions. [View news story]
http://on.fb.me/Hb8ARw
sorry for the link but I could not type in all the names....this list is a list of explosive European and US stocks that are/should be breaking out......
seeking alpha rocks and congrats for the 1 millionth customer......Germany has already started it's own version of seeking alpha but it is still not as fast......
Why Apple's Plunge Makes Sense [View article]
Technically, the bottom is the beginning of 2012 take off, exactly one year ago. The gap up because of q1 results was never closed and 426 USD would close that gap. http://bit.ly/14eXUNS
A Complete Financial Analysis Of Apple [View article]
Technically, the bottom is the beginning of 2012 take off, exactly one year ago. The gap up because of q1 results was never closed and 426 USD would close that gap. http://bit.ly/14eXUNS
A little more on Deutsche/Apple: The firm notes Japanese analyst Yasuo Nakane has long been cautious about FQ2 (March quarter) iPhone builds, and thinks the consensus for FQ2 iPhone sales has fallen to around 37M. The U.S. team thinks Nakane's estimates (45M builds in FQ1, 28M-30M in FQ2) implies upside to his FQ1 sales forecast, and downside to his FQ2 forecast. Meanwhile, his forecast for 17M-19M FQ2 iPad builds implies upside to an FQ2 forecast for sales of 15M. [View news story]
A little more on Deutsche/Apple: The firm notes Japanese analyst Yasuo Nakane has long been cautious about FQ2 (March quarter) iPhone builds, and thinks the consensus for FQ2 iPhone sales has fallen to around 37M. The U.S. team thinks Nakane's estimates (45M builds in FQ1, 28M-30M in FQ2) implies upside to his FQ1 sales forecast, and downside to his FQ2 forecast. Meanwhile, his forecast for 17M-19M FQ2 iPad builds implies upside to an FQ2 forecast for sales of 15M. [View news story]
The Real Reasons Why Apple Is Tanking [View article]
Let Negative Sentiment Help You Get Long Apple [View article]
Nice article, very well thought through. My two cents on apple earnings-. Apple has already lost 12% to date which is the correction one would expect if it does not beat expectations-Upside 10 downside 5 to 7% looking only at 2012 earnings which actually in my opinion reflect the multpile new upgrades and products. Taking iPad sales and then new iPhone sales into account the results for this quarter should be normally better due to presales compared to sales in the previous quarters. Also after yesterday new ipad mini and new upgraded ipad and new imac it would appear that apple is reinventing itself and going into shorter product cycles becuase it is an invention company which outsources all production hence reducing fixed costs and inventories. Margins might decrease but as long as sales grow and profits increase everything else is illusionary.
Having said that, the overall markets are correcting and apple is along for the ride. I would expect a price Movement of 630 prior to announcement of results before it being blown up or down. I believe that the ride will be upside as the new products and pricing tend to prove that apple has no fear with their sales growth and earning growth.
Take this years quarterly results - Jan 24, 8% after market rise (in a very bullish overall market) followed by a 46% rise into April. Following overall General market movement look at S&P 500. We are currently priced at exactly the day after the April results came out and that was a upside of 11% followed by a ride down 15% and the S&P also went down 10% followed by a ride up starting June of 2012 up 12% for the S&P and 35% for apple. July apple had a good quarter but fell 5% but do not forget it was already up with the overall market 16% and then regained to chalk up another 20%. Long story short markets are correcting and are not yet near their possible retracement- 1393 for the S&P which fits nicely with a 586 for apple. I expect apple to move up and then fall with the overall market. Apple day trading 630 then falling to 586.
What do you think? Would appreciate your feedback?
Thanks
A Hedged Approach To Trading Apple Earnings This Time Around [View article]
Nice article but I think that your data analysis is incorrect as you have not taken into effect that in this year alone apple came out with favorable results beating analysts expectation and then took a 5 % to 10% dive. If you lock this into your statistics then you will have different results. Apple has already lost 12% to date which is the correction one would expect if it does not beat expectations-Upside 10 downside 5 to 7%. Taking iPad sales and then new iPhone sales into account the results for this quarter should be normally better due to presales compared to sales in the previous quarters. The overall markets are correcting and apple is along for the ride. I would expect a price Movement of 630 prior to announcement of results before it being blown up or down. I believe that the ride will be upside as the new products and pricing tend to prove that apple has no fear with their sales growth and earning growth.
Take this years results which are not included in your analysis. Jan 24, 8% after market rise followed by a 46% rise into April. General market movement look at S&P 500. We are currently priced at exactly the day after the April results came out and that was a upside of 11% followed by a ride down 15% and the S&P also went down 10% followed by a ride up starting June of 2012 up 12% for the S&P and 35% for apple. July apple had a good quarter but fell 5% but do not forget it was already up with the overall market 16% and then regained to chalk up another 20%. Long story short markets are correcting and are not yet near their possible retracement- 1393 for the S&P which fits nicely with a 586 for apple. I expect apple to move up and then fall with the overall market.
Apple: Selling Puts Ahead Of Earnings [View article]
The Eurogroup statement on Spain: "The loan will be scaled to provide an effective backstop covering for all possible capital requirements ... with an additional margin of safety up to €100B in total ... the Fund for Orderly Restructuring (FROB), acting as agent of the Spanish government, could receive the funds and channel them to the financial institutions concerned." [View news story]
The conventional wisdom says risk markets rally Monday in Pavlovian response to the latest bailout, but the news may be baked in: Spain (EWP) was 10% higher last week, the S&P 500 +4%. Is the rescue even good news? "Spain is the Rubicon that should have never been crossed," says Nicholas Spiro. "A limited bailout for Spain (will) fail to restore confidence in the markets, (and) could fuel fears that more aid will be needed at a later stage (with Italy waiting in the wings)." [View news story]
make sense?
If Greece exits the eurozone, writes The Tell, the EU should consider replacing it with Turkey. The country's speedy growth and youthful demographics would help a union sorely in need of both. One wonders if the reason Turkey's economy is perky (even overheating) is because it's not part of the eurozone. The EU may want the country, but has anybody checked with Ankara? [View news story]
Alongside a wave of regulatory investigations hitting market sentiment this afternoon, former Greek PM Papademos tells Dow Jones preparations for Greece exiting the euro are being considered; the risk of leaving is real. Estimates of a cost of €500B-€1T underscore the magnitude of the consequences, he says. [View news story]