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  • Mid-day Friday, August 20 2010 - Good possibility today, next week will be VERY bad... [View instapost]
    Well----I agree, it is all too possible the market will be very bad indeed.
    But let's think ahead a couple of weeks on the fundamental side. All that Bernanke needs to do is let the Big Banks know the Fed "will approve" two trillion in QEII and will POSSIBLY initiate the same type of action it did starting March of 2009. Even if all he does is say this, and then in fact do nothing----would the market still go down? Or would it sit there in a nervous holding pattern, wondering when he would strike? To help with the elections, he only needs to keep markets from crashing, they don't actually need to go up.
    Aug 21, 2010. 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking Under the Hood of the Philly Fed Index Report [View article]
    Your analysis is much more meaningful and valuable than that of the MSM.
    Aug 19, 2010. 03:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economics of U.S. Military Interventions: The Numbers (Part 1) [View article]
    Money spent on these wars is money thrown into the trash. All the self righteous fanatics on that "fair and balanced" tv network will not convince me otherwise. Lets end these wars and spend the money here at home.
    Aug 13, 2010. 01:06 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • While the stock market may look like it was panicking over a possible double-dip, this week's selloff may mean nothing more than normal volatility in a range-bound market. Don't draw any meaningful conclusions until after investors come back from summer vacation, market pros say.  [View news story]
    A very sensible point of view. For example, on 7/16 we saw people bail out of the market----but then the market proceeded to go right back up. Could it happen again-----I would think possibly it could.
    Aug 12, 2010. 03:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wednesday, August 4, 2010 - Ending Diagonal in Play [View instapost]
    Inquiring minds want to know: will it be a straight line down, or will we stair step down much as we have stair stepped up?
    Aug 11, 2010. 06:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumption Contraction Intensifies [View article]
    The information in these graphs is alarming.
    Aug 8, 2010. 09:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anatomy of a Potential Market Top [View article]
    A fascinating analysis, I look forward to updates of your views as you develop them.
    Aug 8, 2010. 06:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Breaking Down from their Rising Wedges [View instapost]
    In a way you are right, I think, it is all rigged.
    And yet the market has been going up and down all year. What is to prevent that from taking place again? June 21st it started down and kept on going till early July; then we had a rally. Something like that is bound to happen again, rigged game or not; I think of it as just part of the way the rigged game is being worked.
    Aug 7, 2010. 02:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wednesday, August 4, 2010 - Ending Diagonal in Play [View instapost]
    Well--in principle I agree with you. I concur market should go a little higher and then tank; whether that is this week, I can't say. Often I have seen markets change direction around Option Expiration day, in this case August 20th.
    Given your analysis of market direction and so forth, do you think puts expiring August 20 are attractive?-----they are getting very low in price. Or is it better to pay more and get September options?
    Aug 4, 2010. 07:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's unexpected 1.7% drop in nondurable goods inventories, on top of a 2.5% drop in May, probably means last Friday's GDP estimate of 2.4% is far too optimistic. Commerce Department had assumed a 0.5% inventory rise for June; economists now say Q2 GDP was more likely in the 1.7-2% range.  [View news story]
    They will revise the number to less than zero.
    Market will rally big time, knowing more government money will be pumped in to keep the markets going up. They have an election to win.
    Aug 3, 2010. 05:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECRI's Growth Gauge Continues to Decline [View article]
    I have a high regard for the ECRI, and regardless of what Mr. Achuthan may say, I feel that their indexes provide a valuable insight into the state and direction of the economy. Right now it is looking pretty bad.
    Aug 1, 2010. 07:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thursday, July 29, 2010 - A Lesson in Elliot [View instapost]
    Great analysis, timely and interesting.
    1. I know some would point out: the VIX went down today, not up as one might have expected if such a decline is in the offing. For the event of 7/16, the Vix was also at odds with the market, causing some to feel skeptical at that point.
    2. Nonetheless it does seem a logical time to expect a decline. Are you estimating a time to the new bottom----Aug 13th perhaps, if I read your chart correctly---and have you formed an opinion on the estimated target area?
    3. Lastly, some analysts thought a rise to 1131 or even 1146 was possible prior to this current projected decline, but it looks like you are ruling it out.
    Jul 29, 2010. 04:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Under a little-noticed provision of the new financial legislation, the SEC no longer must comply with nearly all requests for information releases from the public, including those filed under the Freedom of Information Act. Congress and federal agencies can request information, but the public cannot.  [View news story]
    Now let us be pro-active here. Consider the following:

    NO NEW TAXES, No few fees, no new borrowing. And no increases in rates., either.

    If this were the law, government would have to shrink rapidly. It wouldn't go from being a whale to a minnow, but it would get mighty small. If we do not like it, why pay for it?
    Jul 28, 2010. 07:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday July 26, 2010 - Comments After the Close - Overbought and Weakening  [View instapost]
    Great analysis, of course. I too anticipate some sort of market pullback. Back on July 15th, I felt a pullback was due, and prices did go down----but all too briefly, and we then got into this current uptrend.
    Let me ask you for the impossible. How do I determine whether the pullback we are about to have is to be a Big Event (e.g. a decline of a week or two) or just a one or two day pullback?
    Jul 26, 2010. 08:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Local governments are in a race to the bottom and will likely need more than $1T from U.S. taxpayers over the next three years, former L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan says. "It's not just L.A., it's not just California, it's all over the country - you're going to see all these entities become totally insolvent."  [View news story]
    Government spending must be cut back to what the public is willing to support. Obviously there will be different ways of doing this and the most effective ways will emerge after a period of pain.
    The point is, the system needs to be fixed in a drastic way and this is a great opportunity to do it.
    Jul 23, 2010. 12:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment