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JackB125

JackB125
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  • Market Greets Tesla Game Changer With Yawn [View article]
    @Dave_M,

    I agree 100% with your "glimpse of the future". 8-10 years from now when the switch from ICEV's to BEV's is in full swing, the creative-destruction will be massive and brutal. I sure wouldn't want to be in the transmission repair business at that time. The disruption is going to be so sweeping that it is difficult to imagine the scale of change & displacement.

    I am long TSLA and believe that these changes will likely be great for me financially; but, I can't help but to be concerned for the workers & their families that will get hit by these changes.

    Well regulated (e.g., antitrust laws -- good; rentier laws for your buddies -- bad) free-market capitalism is a wonderful system for efficiently providing goods and services, as well as constantly spurring innovation of all kinds. But, among its downsides are the sometimes brutal changes that come along with it.
    Oct 13 05:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Greets Tesla Game Changer With Yawn [View article]
    @keefwotspeaksthetroof,

    “Tesla have now blocked access to the TMC forums except to registered owners.
    What are they afraid of, that people will read the litany of complaints from owners?”

    I’m not following the reasoning of your comment. It seems to me that if TMC restricted their forums to registered owners, the impetus is much more likely to be that of blocking the “faux” comments from non-owners that Navy Man mentions above (http://bit.ly/1qgineL).

    If you disagree, please explain further.
    Oct 12 02:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Musk reveals dual-motor Model S with F1 acceleration [View news story]
    Tesla Mission Statement:

    "To accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible."

    The affordable, mass-market BEV has ALWAYS been the ultimate goal. The high-end vehicles are necessary steps to get there.
    Oct 11 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Musk reveals dual-motor Model S with F1 acceleration [View news story]
    @David at Imperial Beach,

    "No other car, EV or otherwise, has dual motors that actually increase efficiency and range, as well as acceleration."

    I agree 100%. I also am looking forward to seeing how the Model S AWD versions with a 100% independent front/rear system that operates on a millisecond basis compares to other high-end sedans on traction & stability control.

    "Tesla is leapfrogging the competition in autopilot features ..."

    Absolutely. And this from a company with less than 7,000 employees!

    "... the Mobileye technology still has to be integrated into the car's controls. Mobileye itself only sells products that warn the driver when she is about to do something stupid. The car manufacturers that integrate it into the car actually control the steering, power, and braking."

    Plus GPS and traffic data integration. Again, less than 7,000 employees. This is an amazing leap forward.

    After the TSLA Friday price drop & reading some of the comments about the Thursday announcements, I can't help but think that some people have become quite jaded to Tesla's outstanding technical execution. If some of the older, established auto-manufacturers had an announcement with multi-functional enhancements as significant as Tesla’s recent announcement, we'd all be gaping slack-jawed from shock. But, with Tesla, many people are saying, “Ho-hum, is that all?”
    Oct 11 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's 'D', A Disappointment And Huge Financial Risk [View article]
    Randy, CONGRATULATIONS -- you nailed it! 0-60 mph in 3.2 seconds! Exactly what you estimated in your "The 3 Tesla Secrets" SA article (http://bit.ly/1sPzUAY).

    One additional enhancement that I didn't see mentioned was a top speed increase on the P85D to 155 mph up from the P85’s 130 mph. Folks that drive the autobahn will probably like that enhancement.

    I have two technical opinion questions for you, then some of my own Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) musings…

    1) How much of an improvement in traction control & stability control would you expect from Tesla’s independent front/back, millisecond based system when compared to a typical ICE AWD sedan system?

    2) Do you think that there will be much of a hit to the Model S’s front end (especially the offset) crash test results with the front drivetrain?

    I would love to get a CPO Model S in the $40,000 - $60,000 price range. I suspect that my brother and a couple of brother-in-laws would also be interested. I certainly agree with you that Tesla is at risk with their guaranteed residual value buy-back program. If they do get into trouble there, that would be good for me as a CPO buyer; but, bad (of course) as a long TSLA investor. My guess on this one is that I'm going to end up as a disappointed CPO non-buyer/relieved investor – especially if they put in new battery packs with a good warranty. In any case, it will be interesting watching this play out.
    Oct 10 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Modest pace to fuel economy improvement in the U.S. [View news story]
    @Renewable Interest,

    We've certainly gotten better at the more difficult oil extractions & put off the depletion problem for a time. But, the more pernicious problem at this point is global warming. The exhaust of modern a ICE is actually fairly clean; older, poorly maintained ICE's -- not so good. But, in any case, ICE's directly produce CO2. The CO2 emissions + "the tragedy of the commons" is the real problem.

    I would agree with you that CAFE is a poor set of regulations. They are full of loopholes; but, more importantly, they only indirectly address the more serious problem of CO2 emissions. It would be better to dump CAFE and directly tax CO2 emissions.

    The problem today with CO2 emissions is that you are adding to a long term problem; yet, you pay nothing for doing so. Thus, we fall into the tragedy of the commons -- everyone acting in their own best interests & by doing so, collectively creating a long term problem that will ultimately be very expensive for all of us. I think it would be much better to try to setup a system where we pay for our choices & actions as we go along. Thus, a reasonable, best guess, tax on CO2 (and other greenhouse gases) emissions seems like a fairer, and likely more effective, regulatory basis than the CAFE morass.
    Oct 8 08:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Speculation builds heading into Tesla Motors event [View news story]
    @matirw04,

    On Gold (Au)...

    Gold does hold some inherent value for electronics, dentistry, jewelry, medicine & even aerospace. But, by in large, it is mainly valuable because people agree it is valuable. Remember, you can't eat it, burn it or build much with it.

    Some folks keep it as a hedge against the end of civilization. But, since it is the agreement of people in a civilization that really gives gold its value, it is a poor hedge indeed. You'd be much better off with a bottle of bourbon than a bar of gold if civilization collapsed.

    Some folks think that we should go back to the "Gold Standard" for our currency. They hate that the Fed can make (and unmake) money out of thin air. But, that is what central banks (among their other duties) are supposed to do. Say, we were to go back to the gold standard today. Then, ten years down the road, the economy has doubled (or at least had the potential to double, except we put ourselves back on the idiot gold standard). How do you double the money supply to accommodate the new 2x economy? You certainly cannot double the gold supply in such a short time. If you change the dollar value of gold, that's no different than having no gold standard at all. This lack of flexibility is pretty much why no nation on Earth uses the gold standard today.

    Just my 2 cents on gold. I've always been leery of it as an investment. Perhaps fun for speculation, but generally not the best investment vehicle.
    Oct 6 08:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla to unveil 'D' and something else Oct. 9 [View news story]
    I think the battery swap station rollout has been (temporarily?) shelved due to lack of customer interest. The problems I see from the customer standpoint are:

    1) It certainly costs more than a 30 minute SuperCharge.
    2) Unknown history of the loaner battery pack.
    3) At some point, you have to go back to your original swap station to get back your battery pack -- this has the potential of being very inconvenient.

    One other consideration is that future battery technology (e.g., solid-state Li-ion, ultra-capacitors, etc.) could have significantly shorter recharge times making the relatively expensive swap stations obsolete.
    Oct 2 06:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's talk about the D [View news story]
    I think that we're going to find out how close you are on your 0-60 mph estimate (3.2 sec) with an AWD version of the P85 in http://bit.ly/1sPzUAY . I suspect that you are very close.
    Oct 2 04:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors September U.S. sales (estimate) [View news story]
    @keefwotspeaksthetroof, Not a particularly useful comment. Do you mean to say that 3Q sales numbers are not pertinent? If so, what's the thinking? Please expand.
    Oct 1 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors September U.S. sales (estimate) [View news story]
    Hi markcc, I just checked the link in the article's first bullet. The numbers are from insideevs.com. They show 500 for July, 600 for August and 2500 for September. These are US SALES ONLY (caps for emphasis -- not yelling :-) ). I wish that we had worldwide numbers instead. Hopefully we'll get a reference to them later in the commentary.
    Oct 1 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors September U.S. sales (estimate) [View news story]
    Wow! I just got the email and you already grabbed the first comment slot! Congrats again LT.

    Just saw that these were US only numbers. Any estimates on worldwide deliveries? Thx.
    Oct 1 03:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Compelling Markets [View article]
    @All Your Bases,

    On "Sales" vs. "Demand", exactly! Also, sales are based on delivery. And, since Tesla is juggling deliveries to the various locales based on wait times, new geography market establishment and required infrastructures, the "Sales" have an atypically weak connection to "Demand" as broken down by geographies. Consequently, the slack demand arguments that have been based on changes in geographic deliveries are inherently weak.
    Sep 24 06:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reservations strong for Model S cars in China [View news story]
    I believe that there are three things that should be considered as you decide how much weight to put into this current low demand argument:

    1. The 2Q2014 deposits numbers are getting pretty old to use against a current order number. This is especially true in a new market like China. We have no idea how many of the 4000 orders came in after June.

    2. I'd like to get a better understanding of the 2-phase deposit system in China from a reliable source. Specifically, is it always a 2 week period between the first and second deposit?

    3. We still need to account for the current 3+ month deposit to delivery delays in North America & 4+ month delays everywhere else.

    One last thought... If Tesla really needs to firm up its demand, why are they still not advertising? Enthusiasts have already given them a couple of pretty good commercials. Why not use them?

    Whether you are long or short TSLA, the demand question is ripe for bias confirmation. Be careful out there.
    Sep 24 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Compelling Markets [View article]
    Hi TFTF,

    "Then why is he opening all those expensive showrooms in China and other 'new' countries?"

    That is certainly a valid question. I honestly believe that Elon's goal with Tesla is actually what is called out in Tesla's mission statement. I.e.,

    "To accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible."

    To that end, I suspect that Elon wants Tesla to establish a global presence as quickly as possible in order to better serve the stated mission. This is just my personal speculation -- no data or executive statements to back this thinking up.

    I am long TSLA & admire Elon Musk. However, I also recognize that his goals for Tesla and my goals for Tesla are almost certainly different. I want to profit from my long TSLA positions; Elon wants to serve the Tesla mission statement. They are two different things & this does give me pause.

    That said, I think that the two goals mostly overlap -- fortunately. And, while I'm currently planning on holding my TSLA stock for the next several years, I am not a blind "fan-boy" -- I've cashed out some positions on TSLA's way up & I'm keeping some of my current paper profits collared as well.

    Best regards.
    Sep 24 12:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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