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JackB125

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  • Tesla's Success Bad News For Hybrids And EREVs, Good News For BEVs [View article]
    The problem with this comparison is that the jet engine didn't drop the number of moving parts in a plane by 80%. Also, the first jets were not the safest way of flying for quite a while.

    With the Model S, we have a new vehicle that is superior in every category except range and cost -- both areas in which we are expecting continual improvements.

    We're already at a tipping point. But as the range & cost improve, it will become a landslide. The market will shift enormous resources in a very short period of time to meet demand. This is just the adaptable and resilient nature of a free market that has been with us since the industrial revolution.

    Yesterday, George Kesarios contributed an interesting article about the creative destruction he sees coming due to what Tesla has started. See http://bit.ly/1kIopDT . If anything, I think his predictions may be understated.
    Mar 19 11:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Efforts afoot in New York to ban Tesla Motors' direct sales method [View news story]
    Click-seeking with rent-seeking?
    Mar 14 02:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Efforts afoot in New York to ban Tesla Motors' direct sales method [View news story]
    Don't forget the step-down gear fluid. It has to be changed every 12 years. :-)
    Mar 14 11:33 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can New Jersey Harsh Tesla's Mellow? [View article]
    EXCELLENT, Excellent quote!!! Thank you for posting it!
    Mar 12 03:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla faces a roadblock in New Jersey [View news story]
    Finance and politics could not be more closely connected. It's expected that discussions will overlap the these two areas.
    Mar 11 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Should Buy Tesla... On One Condition [View article]
    If either Google or Apple wants to put a few of their cash BILLIONS to work, they should fund the Gigafactory!! The potential ROI is enormous.
    Mar 6 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just How Profitable Can Tesla's Supercharging Be? [View article]
    Right now it varies from SC station to SC station. But, I do remember Elon mentioning a CA SC station that had a 500kWh battery system.
    Mar 2 08:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just How Profitable Can Tesla's Supercharging Be? [View article]
    @Miro, Remember the BEV has only 20% of the moving parts of a comparable ICEV. This should be a big plus in terms of depreciation for the BEV.

    Also, with the Model S in particular, the 85kWh battery is under warranty for 8 years; but, the engineers are expecting as much as 12 years out of it. So, let's say you keep the car 10 years (a very long time for most people), and you need a new battery pack. Your new battery pack will either 1) cost 1/2 what the original pack cost, or 2) have twice the range of the original pack.

    The thing about BEV's is that they have an immense mechanical advantage over ICEV's, and their power supply keeps improving year by year. At some point, it just won't make any sense to continue pursuing ICE development.

    For those of us interested in the automobile industry, I think that the next ten years are going to be fascinating.
    Mar 2 08:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just How Profitable Can Tesla's Supercharging Be? [View article]
    @RSA, Elon has already mentioned a 500 mile battery pack. And, if you use the typical 8% annual energy density improvement rate and put it all into distance, you get that 500 mile battery pack right around 2020.

    Not sure that you would get as much of an improved recharge rate that you're looking for. Current US SC's can go as high as 120kW. I believe that it will be possible to go to 150kW at some point with the current SC hardware. But this is a maximum possible rate -- no idea what the 2020 battery will be capable of receiving. Certainly better than the current 85kWh battery pack's 170 miles in 30 minutes. However, without a bigger SC cable or higher DC voltage, I wouldn't expect more than about 200 miles in 25 minutes. But a lot can happen in six years.
    Mar 2 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just How Profitable Can Tesla's Supercharging Be? [View article]
    The Tesla SC is so much better than anything else out there, I think it likely to become the de facto EV charging standard. If this occurs, I would expect Tesla to license their SC technology to other EV manufacturers. This would do two things...

    1) provide Tesla with another revenue stream; and,

    2) help fulfill the company's primary mission -- "To accelerate the electrification of transportation."
    Mar 2 06:11 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Shift In The Fueling Paradigm Is Coming, Driven By Tesla Motors [View article]
    If you're planning on using an extension cord, you'll have to figure in voltage drop. The largest 100 ft pre-made cord I could find online at Home Depot was one that used 10 AWG conductors for about $140. Assuming a 12 amp draw on a 15 amp 120V circuit, this would give you a 4% voltage drop (the charger will be seeing 115V rather than the nominal 120V). I sure wouldn't try anything longer or smaller gauge than this.

    If you were to use a typical 16 AWG extension cord, the voltage drop would be whopping 16.5% (the charger would only be seeing 100V, not 120V).

    To go 200 ft and not exceed a 4% voltage drop, you would need a custom made 6 AWG conductor cable.

    If you have access to a 240V 30A dryer outlet, you'd actually do a lot better. With a 240V circuit, you don't have to include the return leg of the cord in your voltage drop calculations since the two hot conductors are 180 degrees out of phase. Home Depot sells a 25 ft 240V 30A (works with electric dryer outlets -- NEMA L14-30) 10 AWG conductor pre-made extension cord. But, they are pricey @ $100. Also, the manufacturer recommends no more that 3 (75 ft) to be connected together. The upside is that you could draw 24 amps with this setup at twice the voltage and the charger would only see about a 1.5% voltage drop. Plus your charge rate would jump from about 1.38 kW on the 100 ft 120V circuit to about 5.67 kW on this 75 ft 240V circuit.

    Bottom line is beware the use of extension cords. If you do have to use one, be sure to do your voltage drop calculations & don't exceed a 4% drop.
    Feb 28 04:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Shift In The Fueling Paradigm Is Coming, Driven By Tesla Motors [View article]
    Just as we see charging stations popping up at grocery stores, I fully expected to see the same thing occurring at apartment complexes and other businesses.

    The businesses that offer the charging stations will get more of the customers that drive EV's; those that don't, less. In the case of apartment complexes, it becomes a requirement for the EV owners -- quite a differentiator for the apartment complex owners indeed.

    In 2011, only 10,064 plug-in vehicles (PHEV, BEV) were sold; in 2012, 52,835 plug-in vehicles; in 2013, 96,702 plug-in vehicles. (ref http://bit.ly/1aH9Zkc) See the trend?

    Nothing special has to be done here. The market is going to drive the build-out of charging stations for the EV owners that don't live in the typical single family residences of the average Model S owner.
    Feb 28 03:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Leading The Shift Towards Electric Cars [View article]
    @ solucky,

    I agree with you that the $600/yr Model S maintenance plan seems way out of line -- especially so in light of the stated "net-zero-profit" goal for Tesla Service Centers.

    Also, one of the primary advantages of a BEV is the very low maintenance costs. The $600/yr plan just doesn't make sense.

    In some of the recent european Tesla town hall meetings, participants complained about this plan directly to Elon Musk multiple times. I'm hoping that we see a more reasonable plan announced in the very near future.
    Feb 28 01:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Exuberance Of Disruption [View article]
    @Sam Salton,

    It's actually a 3-phase AC induction motor. Interesting historical note... Nikola Tesla patented the AC induction motor in 1888!
    Feb 26 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Hope Dies Last [View article]
    I've posted this comparison one time before & apologize for the duplication. But, this article cries out for this...

    A comparison of how Tesla and Ford used their ATVM loans.

    Tesla Motors ATVM Loan -- $465 Million -- paid back with interest 5/22/2013
    Results - Model S ($63,000 - $111,000)
    .............. Consumer Reports 99/100 -- "Best car ever tested"
    .............. Motor Trend 2013 Car of the Year (first unanimous vote in its 64 year history)
    .............. Automobile Magazine 2013 Car of the Year
    .............. 2013 World Green Car of the Year
    .............. Yahoo! Autos 2013 Car of the Year
    .............. Time Magazine Best 25 Inventions of the Year 2012 Award
    .............. Popular Science's Auto Grand Award Winner Best of What's New list 2012
    .............. Popular Mechanic's 2013's Most Innovative Car Award
    .............. CNET Tech Car of the Year for 2012
    .............. Green Car Reports' Best Car To Buy 2013
    .............. 2013 AutoGuide.com Reader’s Choice Car of the Year
    .............. Natural Resources Canada 2013 EcoENERGY for Vehicles Awards in the full-size category
    .............. 0-60 mph - 4.2 sec
    .............. Top Speed - 130 mph
    .............. Range - 265 miles
    .............. Mileage - 89 MPGe
    .............. Safety - NHTSA 5 stars in all categories

    Ford Motors ATVM Loan -- $5.907 Billion -- payback date 2022?
    Results - Ford Focus Electric (Starting at $40,000)
    .............. 2011 Green Car Vision Award at the 2011 Washington Auto Show
    .............. 2012 Green Car of the Year awarded by the Green Car Journal
    .............. 0-60 mph - 9.5 sec
    .............. Top Speed - 84 mph
    .............. Range - 76 miles
    .............. Mileage - 105 MPGe
    .............. Safety - NHTSA 5 star overall

    Enough said.
    Feb 25 11:21 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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