I am an experienced individual investor who has been trading merger arbitrage stocks and options since the 90's. I am a writer with a Master of Science from Northwestern University and I truly enjoy writing articles about the stock market. I try to look for opportunities where the odds are in my favor and there is a definite edge. On Seeking Alpha my articles will aim to provide insight and favorable risk/reward for the readers.However, I am not an investment advisor so any recomendations or ideas I write about in my articles, blogs, or comments shouldn't be taken as investment advice. I recommend using my writings as a starting point to which you should add your own research or that of an investment advisor.
"Any time you make a bet with the best of it, where the odds are in your favor, you have earned something on that bet, whether you actually win or lose the bet. By the same token, when you make a bet with the worst of it, where the odds are not in your favor, you have lost something, whether you actually win or lose the bet."
-David Sklansky, "The Theory of Poker"
Asia/U.S. Deep-Value Wide-Moat Stocks is a research service for value investors seeking value stocks with a huge gap between price and intrinsic value, leaning towards deep value balance sheet bargains (i.e. buying assets at a discount e.g. net cash stocks, net-nets, low P/B stocks, sum-of-the-parts discounts) and wide moat stocks (i.e. buying earnings power at a discount in great companies like "Magic Formula" stocks, high quality businesses, hidden champions and wide moat compounders).
Those who believe that the pendulum will move in one direction forever—or reside at an extreme forever— eventually will lose huge sums. Those who understand the pendulum's behavior can benefit enormously. ~ Howard Marks
Investment ideas for Asia/U.S. Deep-Value Wide-Moat Stocks are generated from screens, insider trades, 13Fs, fund manager letters, analyst reports, blogs and forums. The initial ideas sourced are subsequently evaluated using The Cheapness-Safety-Quality (CSQ) framework, applying customized investment checklists to ask the right questions of the investments in question, along the dimension of cheapness, safety and quality. Asia/U.S. Deep-Value Wide-Moat Stocks' value investing philosophy borrows from the wisdom of value investing gurus, using both quantitative screens and qualitative inputs to filter the global stock markets for investment ideas.
Eric Nickolaison is a financial auditor who holds a BA in accounting and MBA. He provides investment analysis through Offshoot Investment Research on SA which focuses on equity spin-offs and event-driven deep value situations. Warren Buffet once said, "You have to turn over a lot of rocks to find those little anomalies", which can be prevalent in Offshoot Investment's areas of research.
I use value investing methods of analysis to search out undervalued companies using a combination of financial analysis and a qualitative assessment of management, industry & company fundamentals and circumstances to evaluate the odds of a successful investment. Emphasis is currently on consumer non-durables with strong brands and market shares, but there is no limit to such investments only. Past investments have included oil companies, consumer retail and consumer durables.
----->Top Idea #1: Zooplus, publ. Oct. 24th 2014, return since: +116.3%
----->Top Idea #2: Coca-Cola Bottling Co., publ. May 20th 2015, return: +72%
(calculated as of Sept 30th 2015)
I try to generate a couple of high probability ideas (2-3) every year and take very concentrated positions based on those ideas. Over the past 8 years this strategy has generated a 22,87% compounded average return net of all costs and taxes on my investment portfolio, with the strongest returns mostly during the past five years.
Current sectors under coverage by me at Seeking Alpha:
-personal & household goods
Disclaimer: all investment analyses and information written and published by me, as well as all comments, should not be considered as investment advice or used as such. All readers are strongly urged to perform their own research and due diligence on the equity shares and other investment products I have written about. I have no business or any other forms of relationship with the companies featured in my analyses, unless explicitly stated so in the article disclaimer.
I have been trading part time for the past 10 years, focusing on swing trades and identifying how different stocks will "inhale and exhale" through the market. My primary targets are in the $2-$10 range, averaging over 2 million shares traded daily, and looking for an upswing. My goal is to average 10% per month, but will hold on for the long run with stocks that I believe in.
Spencer Grimes is a former sell side equity analyst and private equity investor who now serves as principal of Twinleaf Management LLC where he focuses on sub-$3 billion market cap equities primarily in the technology, telecom and media space that he believes may be undervalued, out-of-favor, misunderstood or mispriced. He also teaches a post-grad Media Economics course at The New School in New York City.
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Focused on boring low/no-growth industries with valuations wildly divergent from their cash flow based valuation. To end up in my price target, it's gotta be quantifiable, no qualitative upsides.
In between: Crossfit fanatic
Benjamin is the founder of ModernGraham.com, a website devoted to the study and modernization of the teachings of Benjamin Graham. Benjamin graduated cum laude with a J.D. and Certificate in Taxation from DePaul University College of Law, and a B.S. in Finance (Honors) from DePaul University College of Commerce.
Articles posted on Seeking Alpha are a sample of the articles posted on ModernGraham.com. Please visit the website for more ModernGraham content.
Brad Thomas is a research analyst and he currently writes weekly for Forbes and Seeking Alpha where he maintains research on many publicly-listed REITs. In addition, Thomas is the Senior Analyst at iREIT Forbes and Editor of the Forbes Real Estate Investor, a monthly subscription-based newsletter.
Thomas has also been featured in Forbes Magazine, Kiplinger’s, US News & World Report, Money, NPR, Institutional Investor, GlobeStreet, and Fox Business. He was the #1 contributing analyst on Seeking Alpha in 2014 (as ranked by TipRanks) and he is currently writing a book on the legendary investor Donald Trump.
Thomas has co-authored a book (The Intelligent REIT Investor) that is available on Amazon.
Thomas received a Bachelor of Science degree in Business/Economics from Presbyterian College where he played basketball. He resides in South Carolina with his wife and kids.
RH Analytics specializes in deep-dive fundamental research on companies and sectors. We focus on topics where we believe there is a disconnect between current perceptions of the investment opportunity and the underlying reality. Our work dispels the myth and illuminates the reality.
I am a dividend investor and look for undervalued investments in the stock market. I identify misunderstood and undervalued equity investments and hold those securities until their price approximates my estimate of intrinsic value. I am a long-term investor only.
I am building a $100,000 high-yield income portfolio. I am running this portfolio as an experiment to see if long-term sustainable income can be generated from a diversified pool of high-risk, high-yield securities. I am willing to accept high risk in order to meet my performance goals.
Chris DeMuth Jr. is the founder of Rangeley Capital LLC. Rangeley is an investment firm that focuses on event driven, value-oriented investment opportunities. Rangeley Capital and his value investing forum, Sifting the World (StW), search the world for misplaced bets. Rangeley exploits them for its investors and then Mr. DeMuth writes about them on StW.
The writer is a long term value investor and M.Sc graduate in Financial Markets with over 10 years experience. Value can be found in both long and short ideas and uses options to enhance the risk-return profile of investment ideas.
Disclaimer: This article provides opinions and information, but does not contain recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Do your own research or obtain suitable personal advice.
I focus on the microcap space (market cap below $250 million) because it is one of the most inefficient and "alpha rich" areas of the global equity market, which provides the greatest opportunity to generate alpha through fundamental research.
I use a bottom up, investment decision making process. The ideal investment has an asymmetric risk/return profile with a limited downside (e.g. high net cash balance, strong cash flow) and significant upside (e.g. asset value extraction, overlooked business model transition).
Microcaps are particularly attractive to the following groups:
Activist investors. A small absolute investment (on a dollar basis) can be leveraged into a relatively large position (as a percentage of shares outstanding), which provides a greater ability to demand change.
Private equity firms. The persistent microcap discount can be “arbed away” via an LBO with the new owners accruing all of the gains for themselves. The small absolute size of many microcaps on an EV basis significantly expands the number of firms able to pursue this strategy.
This inefficiency exists for several reasons.
A lack of analyst coverage due to lower trading volume (less soft dollars from HF/MF), the global settlement that permanently severed the link between research/banking and the rise in electronic trading/decimalization. Moreover, none of these trends are likely to reverse for the foreseeable future (if ever).
A lack of institutional products given the natural capacity constraint for new/existing managers.
An inability to effectively implement a passive approach (e.g. ETFs, index funds) due to the lower liquidity and wider bid/ask spread. However, each of these obstacles can be overcome by using a combination of electronic trading tools (e.g. algos) and patience in building a positive size.
Inaccurate and persistent misconceptions about microcaps (e.g. they are riskier than larger cap stocks).
I currently trade for my personal account but would like to move into the investment management side of the industry.
John Huber is the portfolio manager of Saber Capital Management, LLC, an investment firm that manages separate accounts for clients. Saber employs a value investing strategy with a primary goal of patiently compounding capital for the long-term.
John also writes about investing at the blog www.basehitinvesting.com, and can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Troy Racki, DDS is a private practitioner located in Northern California. Entering college at 17, he graduated with a BS in biology and completed his Doctor of Dental Surgery from Loma Linda University. He has been a personal investor since age 14, opening his first brokerage account on the Monday following his 18th birthday. Additionally he serves as Vice President on the board of directors for the non-profit organization Redding Writers Forum which is dedicated to serving authors of Northern California.
I am a Private Investor. Have been at it for quite a while. I have a bit of an activist streak.
Look for undervalued situations based on absolute value or relative value. I read my SEC or Sedar reports. Specialty is small thrifts in the U.S. trading as discounts to tangible book with earnings and lots of tangible equity to assets...........ie.............mutual to stock conversions.
I like hard asset plays right here for 25-30% of the portfolio. Oil and Gas. Uranium, Potash, Gold, Silver.
Andrew Shapiro is Founder, President and Portfolio Manager of Lawndale Capital Management, an investment advisor that has managed activist hedge funds focused on small- and micro-cap companies for over 23 years, one of the longest periods of experience deploying an activist/relational investment strategy today. Mr. Shapiro’s proactive ownership approach has been effective in directly creating and unlocking shareholder value in Lawndale’s portfolio companies and has contributed to Lawndale’s activist funds often being ranked among the top event-driven and small-cap value funds in peer databases for long-term performance. In addition to leading Lawndale, Mr. Shapiro has also served as a Director or Observer on portfolio company boards and debt and equity bankruptcy committees. Mr. Shapiro is a member of the National Association of Corporate Directors (NACD) and, via Lawndale, has been a long-time Sustaining Member of the Council of Institutional Investors (CII).
Mr. Shapiro has more than two decades of portfolio management and analytically varied experience from a number of "buy-side" positions, employing a rare combination of credit, legal and equity analytic and workout skills. Prior to founding the Lawndale organization in 1992, Mr. Shapiro managed the workout and restructuring of large portfolios of high-yield bonds, distressed equities and risk arbitrage securities for the Belzberg family's entity, First City Capital. Before joining First City, Mr. Shapiro was involved in numerous highly leveraged corporate acquisition and recapitalization transactions for both Manufacturers Hanover Trust and the Spectrum Group, a private equity firm.
Mr. Shapiro received his JD degree from the UCLA School of Law where he was an Olin Fellow, an MBA from UCLA's Anderson Graduate School of Management where he was a Venture Capital Fellow and a BS in Business Administration from UC Berkeley's Haas School of Business, where he has taught finance courses and frequently guest lectures.
Mr. Shapiro was recently selected to the 2012 NACD Directorship 100, a list of the most influential leaders in the boardroom and corporate governance community. He is often quoted on matters of corporate governance, fiduciary duty and activist investing and has been the subject of several articles, including a Business Week article in 2000 calling him “The Gary Cooper of Governance”. Mr. Shapiro frequent speaks and panels on corporate governance and activist investing issues at a broad range of prestigious forums that include the Council of Institutional Investors, National Association of Corporate Directors, American Society of Corporate Secretaries, SEC Advisory Committee on Small Public Companies, and the Director’s education programs of Stanford Law School, UCLA Anderson Grad. School of Mgmt., the Wisconsin Business School and Yale’s Millstein Center for Corporate Governance, among others. Mr. Shapiro is a Contributing Author at Seeking Alpha.
Mr. Shapiro started Lawndale’s funds in 1993 with only $188,000 under management and through performance and added capital has grown the firm’s managed assets substantially. Lawndale applies a private equity approach through active and relational ownership of public company securities. In most investments, Lawndale plays a constructive relational role by actively working with boards and management teams to help them achieve their strategic and operating goals. In other instances, Lawndale is a direct value-unlocking catalyst, utilizing a range of tools that include aggressively promoting improvements in a company's governance and operational structures, proxy actions, asserting shareowner’s legal rights and taking active roles in restructuring and buyout proposal negotiations..
Malcolm holds a MSc in Geology and has 13 years of experience spanning the resource and investment industries. He started his career as a geoscientist at PanCanadian Petroleum (now EnCana) before transitioning into the investment industry as an international energy research analyst at Wellington West Capital Markets. Before joining Hydra Capital, Malcolm was a Vice President at K2 & Associates Investment Management where he focused on the energy and materials sectors.
Peter started TF Market Advisors in 2011 as a platform to trade and provide market information. The trading strategies are macro, but the direction and value decisions are based on insights into the credit markets. The firm’s commentary has been gaining respect and Peter has become a recognized source of information on the developments in Europe in particular, but has also been very involved in recommendations on the banking industry and high yield bonds. He has appeared numerous times on Bloomberg TV and radio, and has been quoted in articles in the Wall Street Journal, the Associated Press, and Fox Business News. Many top hedge funds, money managers, and asset allocators have asked to be included on the distribution list.
Peter was a Portfolio Manager at KLS in the fall of 2008 and spring of 2009. He achieved positive performance for the period using a combination of single credit positions, well timed macro trading, and an active trading strategy that developed additional trading revenue around the core credit decisions and enhanced relationships to ensure allocations on investment grade new issues that could perform well. The returns were aided by product choice as much as specific credit decisions because the understanding of bonds, loans, and CDS, and investment grade and high yield, and single name and index, helped maximize returns or minimize downside for any level of risk.
Peter has been involved in all aspects of credit trading. He started his career with Bankers Trust in 1994 in the newly formed Credit Derivatives group. While at Bankers Trust and then Deutsche Bank, Peter ran High Yield Credit Derivatives which included cash, CDS, synthetic CDO’s, total return swaps on leveraged loans, and hybrid CLO’s. During this time he was very involved in the industry groups that developed the CDS product and that deep familiarity with the product helps when trading as the in depth knowledge can spot trading opportunities when markets are volatile or headline driven. He was hired by UBS to build out those businesses there, but over time became involved in the Credit Index Trading. He was a board member of CDS Indexco, which created the CDX suite of indices. He went on to start a successful index trading business at RBS in North America, where during 2007 and early 2008, the business went from nowhere to being profitable and a top 5 liquidity provider.
Peter received his Bachelors of Mathematics degree, Joint Honors Computer Science and Combinatorics and Optimization from the University of Waterloo, where he was a Descartes Fellow and graduated as the all-time leading scorer on the football team. He completed his MBA in Finance and Marketing at Vanderbilt University and was awarded the Matt Wiggington Leadership award for outstanding performance in finance.
Our small-cap hedge fund strategy beat the market by 44 percentage points since its inception 18 months ago. Visit our website to learn how you can do the same. Insider Monkey is a finance website that provides free hedge fund and insider trading data. We believe ordinary investors can beat the market by imitating insiders and best hedge fund managers. They have access to better information and experts than ordinary investors do. Take advantage of the SEC filings where hedge funds and insiders disclose their stock transactions.
Here is our team:
Ms. Krishnamsetty is the Editor of Insider Monkey. Prior to creating Insider Monkey with Dr. Dogan, Ms. Krishnamsetty was Associate Producer at Bloomberg Television. Prior to that, Ms. Krishnamsetty was on the afternoon news team at CNBC. Additionally, Ms. Krishnamsetty reported for NPR and worked as a risk management consultant at Marsh & McLennan. Ms. Krishnamsetty has a M.S. in Journalism from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Journalism.
Insider Monkey’s hybrid evaluation system ...More was created in 2003 by Dr. Ian Dogan. Dr. Dogan has a Ph.D. in financial economics with a specialization in insider trading. Dr. Dogan has provided consulting services to institutional investors and hedge funds, and managed a $200+ million fund using a strategy he developed utilizing insider transactions. Dr. Dogan recently authored the insider trading chapter of soon to be published “The Handbook of Investment Anomalies” by Zacks Investment Research. Insider Monkey will serve the outcome of the methodologies developed by Dr. Dogan to ordinary investors who don’t have access to academic quality research and tools to shape their investments.
For your inquiries please contact us at email@example.com
Kate Stalter is the founder of Better Money Decisions, an asset-management firm with offices in Albuquerque and Santa Fe, New Mexico and Scottsdale, Arizona. She is an expert investment columnist for numerous media outlets including Forbes, US News & World Report, Benzinga, TheStreet.com and Morningstar, and is a frequent on podcasts and radio shows, discussing investment topics. Better Money Decisions implements stock-and-bond portfolios using an asset-allocation strategy with funds from Dimensional Fund Advisors. Kate is a Series 65-licensed investment advisor representative, and has a Master's in Business Administration from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management.
You can follow Kate on Twitter @katestalter and receive her free monthly newsletter at www.katestalter.com
Eamon Keane has an undergraduate degree in Mechanical Engineering and a master's degree in Energy Systems, graduating both with first class honours. He has received the Institute of Mechanical Engineers Best Student Certificate, a Veolia Environment research scholarship and two IBM PhD fellowships.
My undergraduate thesis looked at whether aluminium alloys would be a useful energy vector for in-vehicle hydrogen production (no). My master's degree thesis explored the effect high levels of wind generation would have on the economics of Combined Heat and Power (significant negative impact).
I'm interested in all things energy related, in particular oil, rare earth elements and electric vehicles.
I'm a well-informed retail investor and post on SA in order to expose my thought process to critical examination and comment from readers. It makes me a better investor.
I'm particularly proud of bullish macro articles posted in 2009 and later, in which I presented ideas that encouraged me to invest very profitably in a rising market. I also did articles on individual stocks, many of which contained insights not available elsewhere. Finally, I wrote a number of thoughtful articles critical of financialism and the lack of ethics on Wall Street.
I do not post for compensation, as I am concerned that editorial policy encourages and pays a premium for articles that invite the reader to speculate on the short term movements of microcaps, penny stocks, and controversial issues. The best way for me to monetize my insights is to invest accordingly.
As a retail investor, I don't give investment advice. I write about what I'm investing in, and the thought process involved in decision making and stock selection. Hopefully some of what I write is of benefit to others, by sharing my experience as I interpret it and helping them improve their investment thinking and process.