froggey77

froggey77
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  • The Tesla Bubble Bursts  [View article]
    fxfx

    "John Peterson at SA" Petersen He was picky about that.

    He Pointed out financial errors by Tesla for a number of years.
    To be honest his favorite stock is about to go under as well.
    Feb 8, 2016. 07:27 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla Getting Cheap, Or Are Big Investors Losing Confidence?  [View article]
    Watching
    >>>The key is where the source of the electricity all-electric cars. If it comes from coal, the electric cars produce 3.6 times more soot and smog deaths than gas, because of the pollution made in generating the electricity<<<

    "What is the source of this statement? "

    It's in the links but I'll post it again.

    Life cycle air quality impacts of conventional and alternative light-duty transportation in the United States
    http://bit.ly/1I3d4wG
    "EVs powered by natural gas or by WWS (50% and 70% decrease, respectively); scenarios with substantially higher damages than gasoline include corn ethanol (80% increase) and EVs powered by grid average or coal electricity (200% and 350% increase, respectively). "

    "Does it take into account modern emissions scrubbers at coal plants? What pollution are you referring to..CO2, heavy metals, soot, dust, or something else?"


    From the Supporting Information:
    http://bit.ly/1W8ixFD

    PM2.5
    PM10
    CO
    CO2
    O3
    N2O
    NOx
    HCHO
    NH3
    SOx
    VOC
    particulate SO4,
    particulate NH4
    particulate NO3
    organic aerosol
    elemental carbon aerosol
    particle number

    "The final sensitivity analysis investigates the impact of model
    spatial resolution on calculated health impacts"
    Meaning it included where the pollution is made such as an ICE driving down the streets is far closer than a powerplant 30 mi away. Mining coal is dusty as is uranium mining and included as is additional emissions from tar sands. All
    are included.
    Feb 8, 2016. 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla Getting Cheap, Or Are Big Investors Losing Confidence?  [View article]
    Aron
    "Another thought for all the gasoline huffers out there.
    If the mighty gasoline is so gosh darn hard to beat, why not run your house on it?
    Answer: Less safe, less convenient, "

    So far so good
    "and 4-to-5 times less efficient. Just the same as with cars.
    Historically "

    Nope suffers from the same problems of getting the power to the house. Producing the power is 4-5 times less efficient.

    "And yes, I'm not daft. "

    Misinformed but not daft.

    "I realize homes don't generally need battery storage. But wake up to the reality that the cost of batteries is falling and fast."

    Battery prices are falling faster than I expected but the embedded energy/pollution in them makes them questionable in my book.
    Feb 8, 2016. 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla Getting Cheap, Or Are Big Investors Losing Confidence?  [View article]
    Arondaniel

    "The grid of today and certainly the grid of the future is not the big bad dirty coal-fired grid of your assumptions. "

    The average grid of the US today is bad enough to make your EV twice as bad as an ICE.

    Major energy sources and percent share of total U.S. electricity generation in 2014:
    Coal = 39%
    http://1.usa.gov/1MNmDO2

    The key is where the source of the electricity all-electric cars. If it comes from coal, the electric cars produce 3.6 times more soot and smog deaths than gas, because of the pollution made in generating the electricity


    39% of the grid is coal meaning that part of the grid will kill 1.4 times as many people as an ICE.
    While the rest of the grid is cleaner than ICE it is still causing some death and would be 1.4 plus the pollution from other sources. Also as NG peaker plants run during the day and not at night, as does solar, night time charging will have a greater amount of base load charging. In many cases greater coal use.
    in the study I linked to, they used the grid expected in 2020. And totaled twice the deaths caused by smog and related air pollution.

    "And even if it were, just the electricity used to REFINE oil into gas will power ~13% of all driven miles in an EV."

    All of the power used to refine oil to gas comes from parts of the oil that are not of other commercial value. Refiners sell electricity to the grid.

    Here is a list of Texas electricity sources:
    http://bit.ly/Pr6fuz
    Exon and Total among others have refineries selling power to the grid.

    You may note that there are more refineries than listed here.
    Sometimes for example tax purposes or two separate nearby companies create a third company and buy from it as needed. In this way the are recorded as "Buying electricity from the grid."

    Here is an example: Port Arthur Steam Energy LP
    http://bit.ly/1StUwuT

    "Electric cars are 4-to-5 times as efficient. As solar PV follows the same ramp as battery storage, it will all be 100% clean or nearly so. There is no Toyota gas engine gonna close that gap."

    The cars are the fuel source brings the difference down to zero. which I've already proved and you have supplied no evidence to the contrary.

    As you said
    "Garbage in, garbage out."

    BTW someday we will have a much cleaner grid we just don't now.
    Feb 8, 2016. 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla Getting Cheap, Or Are Big Investors Losing Confidence?  [View article]
    While i got couple of comments nobody mentioned that I messed up a bit. I only used the engine and fuel losses for the high efficiency ICE/Hybrid. When you add in the drive train and parasitic losses, you end up about the 23% efficiency calculated for the EV.
    Feb 8, 2016. 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Gigafactory Size Revisited  [View article]
    Cpar

    First I want to say I didn't mean to particularly criticize Obama and it may have come across that I was. Yeah I think it could have been done better; but it was a large amount of money that went to the grid.

    The original promise.
    http://1.usa.gov/1Q2xrbL
    Modernizing the grid:
    "The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Recovery Act) provided the single largest smart grid investment in U.S. history ($4.5 billion matched by an additional $4.5
    billion from the private sector)"

    The amount of money needed was 164Billion from what I read at the time. (Two sources came up with the same number.)

    http://bit.ly/1Q2xrbN
    As of 2010
    "The White House website states that the recovery act provided more than $80 billion in clean energy investments."

    Would it have been better spent elsewhere?
    Who knows. Some of it yes some of it probably not.
    Feb 7, 2016. 10:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Gigafactory Size Revisited  [View article]
    Pot Pie

    Yup a lot of people never expected Tesla not to get a car out the door.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    TESLA MOTORS - ANOTHER WALL STREET SCAM 0 comments
    Jul 8, 2010 5:42 PM

    Basically as it was aluminum and carbon fiber with no manufacturing experience there were very logical arguments against Tesla succeeding. All the articles by people in the field were negative.
    I don't know enough about manufacturing to have a solid opinion so I stayed out of that argument.
    Feb 7, 2016. 09:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla Getting Cheap, Or Are Big Investors Losing Confidence?  [View article]
    Aron
    "Efficiency? Please tell me one time where a technology that was ~20% efficient won out over one that was ~90% efficient. "

    When the power source was less efficient.

    Energy efficiency is about a wash with a high efficiency ICE or hybrid.

    http://bit.ly/zP6FxN
    "For electricity generation based on steam turbines 65% of all prime energy is wasted as heat."
    Add to this another 6% energy loss getting to your house and another loss getting it into your battery for the Roadster

    http://bit.ly/1H0R7ID

    "Research suggests that an average charging efficiency loss ranges between 10-12%. Over this one month period of over 2,400 miles I’m seeing an 23% loss using the standard home charging setup that Tesla recommends. Many people quote an 85% charge efficiency for Tesla, and Tesla’s own charging calculator appears to assume a 91% charging efficiency which is quite different than the 82% actual charge efficiency I’ve measured and significantly worse than the average industry charging efficiency."

    http://bit.ly/1StUwLd

    Using the 85% efficiency " many people quote" Another 15% loss in charging.
    35% - 6% of that say 2%
    33% - 15% about 26%
    Then your EV is about 90% efficient to drive.
    23%

    Gasoline loses 20% in Drilling transportation refining etc. actually a bit less as there have been improvements in the last dozen years.

    http://bit.ly/1T7tucn

    "Upstream and midstream oil and gas are the most energy intensive industries in the world in terms of annual heat input (Fig. 1).3 4 Based on 2005 production of 254 × 1015 btu from oil and gas combined,5 the oil and gas industries collectively consume nearly 20% of the fuel value of produced fluids in compression and pumping, heating, and other processes."

    http://bit.ly/1t0w59n
    Toyota has now developed a new gasoline engine which it claims has a maximum thermal efficiency of 38 percent--greater than any other mass-produced combustion engine.

    38% - 20% = 30% for an efficient ICE.
    23% for your EV.
    Feb 7, 2016. 09:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla Getting Cheap, Or Are Big Investors Losing Confidence?  [View article]
    Aron
    Claiming:
    "More benefits to humans and less harm. Cheaper when comparing like for like. Soon to be cheaper overall.
    Harm to humans? Asphyxiation deaths. Smog. Ecosystem destruction. Birth defects. Climate change (for the non anti-science types)."

    Just doesn't match the facts:

    http://yhoo.it/1Q2pjrT

    "It's kind of hard to beat gasoline" for public and environmental health, said study co-author Julian Marshall, an engineering professor at the University of Minnesota. "A lot of the technologies that we think of as being clean ... are not better than gasoline."


    Life cycle air quality impacts of conventional and alternative light-duty transportation in the United States
    http://bit.ly/1I3d4wG
    "EVs powered by natural gas or by WWS (50% and 70% decrease, respectively); scenarios with substantially higher damages than gasoline include corn ethanol (80% increase) and EVs powered by grid average or coal electricity (200% and 350% increase, respectively). "

    In the US grid average makes an EV twice as polluting as an ICE.

    Yes EVs can be cleaner with the right power source to make and power them; but in general they are not.
    Feb 7, 2016. 09:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla Getting Cheap, Or Are Big Investors Losing Confidence?  [View article]
    Zwalderon
    "I'm presently and admittedly over weighted with Tesla. My portfolio is down more like 20%. I started buying at right the wrong time. But I'm not worried. Buying opportunity here. I'm taking the longer term view."

    A word to the wise may be enough.
    Unfortunately most of us have to burn our fingers at least once.
    Consider it a learning opportunity.
    Feb 7, 2016. 05:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Gigafactory Size Revisited  [View article]
    Nope.
    in five years the grid will still be dirtier than driving an ICE.

    If perhaps Obama had spent money improving the grid rather than trying to get EVs off the ground; it is possible the grid would now be clean enough to make EVs cleaner than ICE. Possibly not.
    Feb 7, 2016. 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Gigafactory Size Revisited  [View article]
    Phoenix
    Any of those companies normal people can invest in; with good fundamentals?
    As in making money for stockholders.
    Feb 7, 2016. 03:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Gigafactory: What Did The Joker Say To The Thief?  [View article]
    Atharios
    I agree you have a reasonable argument to start the storage in the GF.
    That's assuming they ever get there.
    I don't think there is a good argument for the battery packs being made at the GF.
    Feb 7, 2016. 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors preps for fight in Michigan  [View news story]
    Capt
    "Frogfey.
    I assume this was an attempt at humor?

    "You do realize one of the largest users in each state for electricity are the gasoline refineries??"

    This is false.
    Refineries burn the parts of oil that have no other use to produce mostly heat for the continuing refining process. The heat is used also for co-generation of electricity.
    Refineries sell the extra electricity to the grid.

    Here is a list of Texas electricity sources:
    http://bit.ly/Pr6fuz
    Exon and Total among others have refineries selling power to the grid.

    You may note that there are more refineries than listed here.
    Sometimes for example tax purposes or two separate nearby companies create a third company and buy from it as needed. In this way the are recorded as "Buying electricity from the grid."

    Here is an example: Port Arthur Steam Energy LP
    http://bit.ly/1StUwuT

    "And than youmhaventhemorocess of pulling the oil out of the ground,mand polluting even more, and than transporting the gasoline,mand of course make electricity needed to run that gas station and pump the gas into your car."

    Umm OK.

    "Evs can't even come close to using the same amount of electricity that gas cars consume all while riding around on a 20-25% efficient vehicle "

    This part I've already proven false.... except for the part that was incomprehensible.

    "while,the ev driver is around 90% efficient."

    True as stated but misleading. Most of the energy is wasted before it gets to the motor. Energy efficiency is about a wash with a high efficiency ICE or hybrid.

    http://bit.ly/zP6FxN
    "For electricity generation based on steam turbines 65% of all prime energy is wasted as heat."
    Add to this another 6% energy loss getting to your house and another loss getting it into your battery for the Roadster

    http://bit.ly/1H0R7ID

    "Research suggests that an average charging efficiency loss ranges between 10-12%. Over this one month period of over 2,400 miles I’m seeing an 23% loss using the standard home charging setup that Tesla recommends. Many people quote an 85% charge efficiency for Tesla, and Tesla’s own charging calculator appears to assume a 91% charging efficiency which is quite different than the 82% actual charge efficiency I’ve measured and significantly worse than the average industry charging efficiency."

    http://bit.ly/1StUwLd

    Using the 85% efficiency " many people quote" Another 15% loss in charging
    Then your EV is about 90% efficient to drive.

    "But nice try."
    Well in your case not really.
    Feb 3, 2016. 06:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors preps for fight in Michigan  [View news story]
    Anti
    "you cut that comment right at the part where it stated how much better an EV powered by nat gas and renewables does vs a gas powered car. Why?"

    As I was talking about the southeast Mi grid which is 75% coal.
    A 75% coal powered EV will kill 2.7 times as many people as a gas powered ICE. This is assuming zero emissions for the rest of the grid. Pointing out that the remaining 25% of the grid was cleaner than an ICE, but not entirely clean and would also raise the death total, seemed unnecessary nit picking.

    Or were you trying to claim that:
    If you had a different grid somewhere else EVs would be cleaner rather than killing more as they will in the Largest richer area in Michigan?

    Did you forget Michigan was the focus of the article?
    Feb 3, 2016. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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