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froggey77

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  • Norway Approves Shell Proposal To Use The Transocean Barents [View article]
    Rig has been making lower lows and lower highs (Until it more or less flatlined into the last 50% drop) since the crash in 08.
    This is while oil price and other offshore drillers were rising multiples.
    Not to mention rig entered into this downturn with one of the oldest fleets.
    Which means the company wasn't spending their there.
    According to Yahoo's chart SDRL was paying larger Dividends and the price of SDRL went up over 4X during that same period.
    Other than a turnaround story I don't get it. RIG looks like something I would have avoided for a few years now.
    I will admit I'm a newbie to this area so would someone take a shot at educating me?
    May 17, 2015. 08:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Incremental Positives For Tesla In California [View article]
    Slevental
    "I recently heard that the state representatives of Michigan are considering to put special tax on EVs"

    There are a couple of states already taxing EVs for road use.
    About $100 Yearly. (If memory serves.)

    I'll use round numbers as every state is different.
    Assuming 10,000 driven per year by an ICE that gets 20 mpg you will use 500 gal of gas.

    According to the American Petroleum institute The National average tax on a gallon of gas is:
    $0.48 per gal but a bit over 20 cents goes to the Fed and 9+ cents is listed as other leaving 18.85 cents as Excise tax. (I'll round to 20 cents.)

    500 gal X .20 = $100.

    How much tax an ICE driver actually pays depends their specific state on how much they actually drive and how good their gas millage is.
    A Prius is in the area of 50 mpg and other cars far worse than 20.
    In some states you would probably still get a better deal with EVs in other stated worse.
    http://www.api.org~/media/files/stat...

    Is $100 a year likely to make a major difference to people who buy EVs?
    I doubt it.
    May 17, 2015. 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying Planet Payment Hand Over Fist [View article]
    Derek
    ".just wondering if the Seeking Alpha hype will get it back cheaper :)

    Ditto on that.
    May 14, 2015. 08:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying Planet Payment Hand Over Fist [View article]
    Ace
    "Funny article on a little penny stock with really bad fundamentals. "
    At $2.57 you're pushing the limits of a penny stock description.

    " Additionally there has been a great deal of insider selling."
    Well according to Yahoo there has not been a sale since Sept 8. over 8 months ago and one purchase since then.
    Perhaps you looked at PYDS which truly is a Penny stock (At $0.33) and has a ton of insider selling. I did note however; nearly all of the sales for the last year can be attributed to one guy. The most recent other sale by anyone else was 9 months ago. ($2,600)

    Your interesting link (Thanks for that) gives it :
    http://bit.ly/1FlBnoO
    9/10 on financial stability which for a 'penny stock' seems exceptional.

    4/10 on growth which isn't a buy but it's not a screaming short either.

    Perhaps you or the people who gave you a thumbs up could enlighten me as to why you think this is a short candidate?
    No I don't own any of the stocks mentioned but I'm possibly interested.
    May 14, 2015. 08:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turns Out A Tesla Supercharger Costs 2 Or 3 Times What Elon Musk Said [View article]
    Adam
    " A bad lead would cost either side money. "

    Not really; If you think the financial information is important you have no business being long in Tesla. This is minor compared to stuff Elon has claimed.

    Take the Q 2Earnings call.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    July 25, 2012 5:30 p.m. ET
    "Elon Musk - Chairman, Product Architect, and CEO
    Well, the only two things we’re considering are raising zero money or a small amount. There’s not some third option. Then if we raised a small amount of money, it would be probably half of it for cushion value and then half of it for future projects which would be the Model X and the Gen III. We’ve got to come up with a better name than Gen III by the way. [laughter] "

    Within 25 hours a CPA wrote an article on SA saying Tesla wouldn't make it through the Q That's 2 months 5 days from the call

    Is Tesla Motors running out of money — again?
    Matthew DeBord September 28 2012
    (Three days before the CPA's deadline.)

    http://bit.ly/1cudDBY
    "The bottom line is that Tesla needs money to keep pace with its payments to the DOE and expects to be able to raise said moolah with the second offering"

    But if you go back to the transcript you find this little tidbit:
    "
    Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays
    And then if we’re thinking about the demands on your cash for the near term. I was wondering when do you expect to start paying back the DOE loan?

    Deepak Ahuja - Chief Financial Officer
    We start paying that back in December of this year.

    Elon Musk - Chairman, Product Architect, and CEO
    We’re required to pay it back in December. We’ll start paying it back no later than December.

    Deepak Ahuja - Chief Financial Officer
    And then there’s quarterly payments thereafter.

    Amir Rozwadowski - Barclays
    So in terms of the demands on your cash, that’s factored into your expectations for where you will end fourth quarter cash in terms of a relatively okay position?

    Deepak Ahuja - Chief Financial Officer
    Yes.
    "
    So they claimed they would end up fine in the 4th Q including paying the DOE loan and didn't make it to the 3rd Q and this was in Q2.
    And A CPA could predict this in less than a day after looking at their numbers but Elon and his CFO with far more time couldn't?

    In the May call of 2013 no mention of another raise but 2 weeks later there was one. Much of this one was used to pay off the DOE loan. (That Tesla was likely in danger of falling afoul of the covenants there. )

    Many have disputed his is why but other than to say, "WE did it!"
    Why would any company get a higher cost loan to pay off a govt. loan early unless they had to?

    After they are proven wrong about the finances the longs have just continued on their merry way. This is minor.

    Tesla stock just a show and I'm here for the entertainment.
    May 12, 2015. 06:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turns Out A Tesla Supercharger Costs 2 Or 3 Times What Elon Musk Said [View article]
    Randy
    In this link Musk says most of the early stations were at highway stops with little to Zero costs.
    http://bit.ly/1cPn8ME
    Key Take Aways From The Tesla Motors Annual Shareholder Meeting
    Jun. 5, 2013

    In this July article They describe the partner program where Tesla would pay all of the costs but are just spots in the partners parking lot. Called "hosts"
    Inside Tesla’s Supercharger Partner Program: The Costs And Commitments Of Electrifying Road Transport
    http://tcrn.ch/13iTliz

    "For “prospective hosts” of Tesla Superchargers, the ask isn’t too steep: Tesla covers all costs, upfront and ongoing associated with installing supercharger stations, according to the documents obtained by TechCrunch. That covers maintenance, as well as power costs, with Tesla optionally offering to install a dedicated meter just for the charging station alone, from which the bill will go directly to Tesla itself.

    The cost for Tesla is between $100,000 and $175,000 depending on the station, and a lot of those come from the permanent modifications needed at the site to support the Supercharger itself. "

    Having seen some pictures most appear to be spots in the lot with a charger. While this may require some cement work etc. I don't think it is a large variable cost as Tesla in many places could have gone elsewhere.
    May 12, 2015. 05:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turns Out A Tesla Supercharger Costs 2 Or 3 Times What Elon Musk Said [View article]
    Adam
    The quotes were from early to mid 2013 according to one article there were 8 supercharging stations. Mostly CA and 2 in Delaware.
    none in extraordinarily different areas for labor.

    About the property. From the sited article
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Key Take Aways From The Tesla Motors Annual Shareholder Meeting
    Jun. 5, 2013

    The supercharger station costs approximately $150,000 to build one, and approximately $300,000 to build a solar super charger station. The on-going maintenance costs are much lower than people estimate according to Elon Musk, and rent for these supercharger stations is zero or very little since they are on highway rest-stops. Elon also mentioned that these low rents are due to the supercharger stations serving as a driver for traffic to these highway rest-stops.

    So little to no land costs and no cheap labor costs either.
    May 12, 2015. 04:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Amazing Powerwall Reservations [View article]
    Dracut
    Alevo does not mention the weight to energy ratio which considering all the other 'Facts' listed it seems this is likely a show stopper in use for the cars.

    For grid storage weight is irrelevant in most application.
    http://bit.ly/1uBWvQS

    However if I'm understanding this correctly it loses
    20% of its storage in about 2-3,000 cycles
    30+% in 5K cycles
    50% in 12-13K cycles
    While it still has 20-25% at 40K cycles you would have to know a lot more about it and the situation to work out the economics.
    May 11, 2015. 07:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean: Unusual Insight Into Management... But New CEO Will Set Tone [View article]
    Humm I'm not sure what the deal is here. (I'm not in either stock and have come here because the whole section has been crushed.)
    So forgive the newbie probably argument but RIG has been making lower highs and lower lows since Oct 07.
    It dropped under $50 in Dec 08 made a lower low in July 10 and another lower low Dec 11 at this point in basically flat-lined for a year and a half then began dropping again.
    Oil was up over that period and many oil stocks including those in this part of the business were up over that period. As SDRL was mentioned, I'll use it as a proxy.
    SDRL was up about 5X from the Dec 08 lows $7.80 to $45 Fall 13 and appears to have been paying higher dividends (despite being a lower priced stock) during that time. (Looking at Yahoo chart but there is a problem with it May to July RIG divys 2014)
    As RIG is the biggest, I don't want to ignore it but why anybody would consider owning it except as a possible turnaround story with a new CEO is murky to me.
    BTW
    I have no intention of getting either of these stocks, at present. I think another bump down for oil prices is in the cards, unless something political happens.
    May 11, 2015. 06:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Silliness Of Tesla's 7kWh Powerwall Battery [View article]
    It doesn't need to make economic sense if it makes political sense.
    However you are assuming these companies paid full price or paid at all for their batteries. For the PR Tesla may have cut them a deal.
    May 6, 2015. 04:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coupons For Tesla [View article]
    Galt
    Two months after Elon said they would not need more money They did a raise and the stock price went up.


    Q2 2012 transcript on July 25.

    "Elon Musk - Chairman, Product Architect, and CEO
    Yeah. Actually, I think that there is arguably some merit to raising incremental funding just to protect against an unforeseen event. I do want to emphasize that our cash flow projections require no funding raise at all. If we do not raise any funding, we can reach cash flow positive with decent margin. That’s not to say that there isn’t some merit in raising a little bit funding maybe, just to increase the cushion. That’s something that we’re debating internally, and something that we may do. But I do want to emphasize it’s not something we have to do. "
    etc.
    The next day J. Petersen wrote an article saying Tesla would need a raise by the end of the Q. Oct !.
    In late Sept Tesla announced a raise.
    The stock fell from 29 to 27 and went up after the deal was finished.
    The word was that they were about to breach covenants on the govt loan and the govt. forced them to do the raise. (I can't confirm or deny.)

    6 months after the raise.
    Q1 2013 Earnings Conference Call May 7, 2013

    "Elon Musk - Chairman, CEO, and Product Architect
    Sure. Well, we don't have any plans right now to raise funding. Potentially we expect to be – we were positive cash flow in Q1 and we expect to be there relatively sort of neutral on cash flow in Q2. But if it was possible, we could be optimistic about raising a round, but we have spent no time on that at all. So if we were to do a round, it would be for the reasons that you mentioned which is to ensure that if there was some unexpected supply interruption, some sort of risk event, but should potentially protect against a portion of your event that there could be some merit to doing a round."

    Price was around $76 on May 6. based on the claimed strength the stock hit $87 on May 13. On May 17 at $91 Tesla announced the raise (they were not considering) was completed. it dropped back to $87 in a few days. (It's lowest since and a bounce to $110 and further there after.)

    Interestingly it is believed Tesla was again about to fall afoul of the loan covenants and Tesla used over half the money to get out of the govt. loan for a higher priced loan. (Which makes the covenant explanation probable. IMO)

    Short term I expect it weakens the short case long term i don't think it maters. Paulo is considering using the hype to go short and get in at a higher price. Which sounded like a good idea to me.
    Apr 29, 2015. 04:36 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Shale Oil: A Grand Parade Of Cost Improvements [View article]
    Kieth
    "oil & gas will spike upward however renewables will be more economical and take the market share. "

    A decade would not be long enough to make such a change. Synfuels are a niche at present. Bio gas from waste is more polluting to use than oil.


    Electric Cars May Not Be Better For The Environment In Places Where Power Comes From Coal
    http://huff.to/1xVPRYc
    WASHINGTON (AP) — People who own all-electric cars where coal generates the power may think they are helping the environment. But a new study finds their vehicles actually make the air dirtier, worsening global warming.
    Ethanol isn't so green, either.
    "It's kind of hard to beat gasoline" for public and environmental health, said study co-author Julian Marshall, an engineering professor at the University of Minnesota. "A lot of the technologies that we think of as being clean ... are not better than gasoline."
    ...

    "The study finds all-electric vehicles cause 86 percent more deaths from air pollution than do cars powered by regular gasoline. Coal produces 39 percent of the country's electricity, according to the Department of Energy.
    But if the power supply comes from natural gas, the all-electric car produces half as many air pollution health problems as gas-powered cars do. And if the power comes from wind, water or wave energy, it produces about one-quarter of the air pollution deaths.
    Hybrids and diesel engines are cleaner than gas, causing fewer air pollution deaths and spewing less heat-trapping gas.

    But ethanol isn't, with 80 percent more air pollution mortality, according to the study.
    "If we're using ethanol for environmental benefits, for air quality and climate change, we're going down the wrong path," Hill said.

    From the study by the National Academy of Sciences
    http://bit.ly/1Qxb1TM
    Life cycle air quality impacts of conventional and alternative light-duty transportation in the United States

    NG is cleaner than gas powered cars (60% of the pollution)
    Renewable sources such as wind, wave and PV are cleaner yet at 25%

    Very little oil goes into electricity.
    NG does and yes it's a growing amount and percentage.

    However a switch to EVs is not possible in under a decade.
    123K cars with a plug were sold in the US last year a bit over half were EVs the rest were hybrids with a plug. There are single model gas buggies that outsell the total plugins.
    Yes its growing, but a mass conversion is not even close. Or likely possible. Presently batteries are very material and energy intensive.
    possibly carbon batteries will be built some day but that is a someday thing.
    Apr 26, 2015. 03:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil And Solar Divergence Does Not Make Sense [View article]
    Netbluesky
    WhateverWorks, is mostly correct.
    "virtually no power plants are equipped to use oil as fuel."

    Petroleum is used to produce about 1% of the electricity on the US grid.

    The fossil fuel used for electricity generation is mostly coal.
    Second is NG
    Oil is used on some islands and refiners co-generate heat for refining and electricity is an add on benefit and sold on the grid.

    EIA
    http://1.usa.gov/TasNhy
    >>>

    What is U.S. electricity generation by energy source?

    In 2014, the United States generated about 4,093 billion kilowatthours of electricity.1 About 67% of the electricity generated was from fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, and petroleum).

    Major energy sources and percent share of total U.S. electricity generation in 2014:

    Coal = 39%
    Natural gas = 27%
    Nuclear = 19%
    Hydropower = 6%
    Other renewables = 7%
    Biomass = 1.7%
    Geothermal = 0.4%
    Solar = 0.4%
    Wind = 4.4%
    Petroleum = 1%
    Other gases < 1%
    >>>
    Apr 17, 2015. 08:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ripping The Shorts' Faces Off! [View article]
    Good call Paulo.
    Apr 8, 2015. 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Asymmetry - Part 5 [View article]
    Cecil
    "Nonsense. They just announced the shuttering of 5 coal fired plants around Beijing to be replaced with Nat Gas in parallel to upping targets for EVs."

    Well for the most part no. they are planning to use SNG (Synthetic Natural Gas) from Coal.

    http://bit.ly/1G7RFBk
    China plans to build 50 coal gasification plants in less populated northwestern parts of the country, using the gas produced to generate electricity in the more populated areas, where smog is prevalent. Two coal gasification pilot plants have been built, three more are under construction, and 16 have been approved for construction, while the rest are in various planning stages."
    ...
    "These plants are part of China’s plan to alleviate air pollution in its smoggiest cities by reducing coal use in these areas by 2017, instead using gas from coal produced miles away. According to the Chinese state-owned power companies, these plants are considered “clean energy” or “new energy.” To achieve cleaner air in the cities through gasification, net carbon dioxide emissions will increase, while water scarcity may result from a gasification process that uses a great deal of water."

    http://bit.ly/1G7RF4e
    The analysis shows when coal-based SNG is used for cooking,
    power generation, and steam production, life-cycle energies are
    20–108% higher than all competitive pathways, with a similar
    rate of increase in life-cycle CO2 emissions. The CNG car using
    domestic NG or imported LNG can reduce CO2 emissions by 5–14% compared to the conventional gasoline car. If CNG car uses
    SNG, the life-cycle CO2 emission will increase by 180–220% compared to the gasoline car and by 160–240% compared to the BEV pathway.

    "Not that Nat Gas is great but they are not as stupid as you are hoping to imply. "

    No That's not what I meant:
    "The idea that they would be sold in China to cut air pollution is ridiculous.
    I wonder when their govt. will figure it out? "

    What I meant was that unlike the US gov.t who insist on these "Green" subsidies that create pollution despite the National Academies telling they are causing more smog with BEVs. The Chinese will figure it out and cut the subsidies that are proven to be counter productive.
    Apr 2, 2015. 07:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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