Seeking Alpha

PeterPatersonSenior

PeterPatersonSenior
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View PeterPatersonSenior's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Baidu, Inc: Greater Than Google, Or Safer To Sell? An Algorithmic Perspective [View article]
    Thanks for a well reasoned article. I was sometimes right, and many times wrong about short to medium term BIDU stock movement. Typically, I underestimated the range the stock would move up or down. Some people here dislike promotion of a product, but I for one will take a look and find out how IKnowFirst handled some other stocks that I followed for years. If it analyzed on target most of the times, I sure will use it advice for BIDU.
    Aug 15 02:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu's Global Expansion Model Is Going To Fail [View article]
    Makes perfect sense to me. Agree. BIDU has plenty of market to fight for in China, and will have continued growth there. But BIDU will be squashed everywhere else, wasting money. Maybe with some minor exceptions that will add nothing to profitability.
    Jul 22 09:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu 2Q14 Preview: Competition Heating Up In Mobile Search [View article]
    I used to be more bullish on BIDU. I even predicted that it will not cross $190 until 3rd or 4th quarter of this year, and was right withing a couple of days in 3rd quarter (a bit sooner than I actually expected). I believe the stock has a long term potential. However I also see a high likelihood of BIDU crossing under $172 short term. Having similar feeling as you do, I sold all my BIDU stock at a bit over $185 a couple of weeks ago. Now I am really tempted to short, but likely will wait to go one way or the other till dust settles after the earnings release. On one hand, BIDU being momentum stock, may easily run up to $220 (and just as easy back down again). On the other hand, my overall bullishness is tempered by feeling that a NASDAQ correction now is really due soon, and tech momentum stocks will acquire drop like a rock momentum, as they usually do in these situations. Which will provide the puzzle of determining and entering near the bottom if that happens.
    Jul 20 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zacks' Bull Of The Day: Qihoo 360 [View article]
    I guess you are right. If Icahn can do similar things, why not Zacks?
    Jun 25 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zacks' Bull Of The Day: Qihoo 360 [View article]
    I have no issue with the commentary overall on QIHU in this article. QIHU should rally sooner or later. The question is only: when?

    What I don't appreciate is the timing of the original article. One of the places - NASDAQ placed Zacks "Bull of The Day" at 3:26 AM today, June 24th. This article also posted at Yahoo at 1:00 AM. Yesterday QIHU was down. "Bull of The Day" comes out before the day even started, WTF? Zacks good guess, one would hope? Or an element of Zacks shameless market rigging? I learned over years, this kind of nonsense is typical to Zacks.
    Jun 24 05:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's What To Expect From Baidu This Evening [View article]
    Yes, who can't do teach. Who can't teach, set a scene. Since when wisdom is in not claiming anything, because it can be proven wrong next day? While still producing a lot of words? Wiser yet would be to say nothing.
    Apr 24 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's What To Expect From Baidu This Evening [View article]
    Agree with alcides. AH, you have one hour to give a stock price - let say what price you predict in a week from tonight report, or as alcides asked, a range before Q2 report. Risky but, what was the meaning of your article if you don't make any predictions that prove or disprove your point. Otherwise it is just empty rambling that is obsolete tomorrow; no one can make any marks for the future whether to trust your opinions, and even look for them, because you don't clearly state anything.

    So, your price estimate is: ?????
    Apr 24 03:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu Q1 2014: Poised For Growth [View article]
    First of all, let me admit my short term mistake: when I called Zacks strong sell (Five) few weeks ago a folly, I was wrong, and Zacks had a rare correct call.

    In any case I claimed many times in the past that BIDU will cross over $190 no sooner than in third or forth quarter, and it may prove to be correct. I did not expect it touch $142.5 this spring...

    Here is my theory. There was a lot of reshuffling happening for 6 weeks - till around April 16th, partly large funds switching into more stable US large-cap companies before Q1 earnings, partly people selling gainers to pay taxes after a good year gains. Hence the high volume changing hands, averaging over 5mil a day. With so many trying to sell the stock, it held extremely well. If volumes go back to normal 3-4 mil a day, we can expect nice slow mostly up and sometimes down wave. Which way first - we will see on Friday after the earnings Thursday evening. BIDU is positioning to get into $190th in 3rd or 4th quarter, I think.

    Just curious to see when Zacks will change their call (likely they will do so when the airplane has already left the runway, as usual, a nice 'have a good flight' hand wave).
    Apr 22 04:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Qihoo And Buy Baidu? [View article]
    I agree with the article on all points.

    We have a new shill here www2280, either that or www2280 has a large short in danger of BIDU stock running up and squashing him? If you can, come up with some analysis, but don't throw baseless opinions. I understand that everyone ignores you anyway, and people reading SA don't have huge influence on market (talk to mutual funds, ay?), so your effort is wasted. But still, be reasonable, you are just so transparently annoying.
    Mar 12 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu: 2014 Will Be A Mobile Year [View article]
    Totally agree with the article.

    Just one somewhat tangential comment: if you noticed, Zacks had #1 - strong buy for BIDU after the Q4 report. Then it moved to #3 - hold @ $185 - so far so good, it was my opinion as well. Now they changed to #5 - strong sell @ $173. My opinion - Zacks is as incompetent as it gets, or has some other reasons for ratings, that have nothing to do with predicting the stock price movement. I was burned a few times in the past by Zacks flaky opinion on other stocks, so now I trust Zacks rating just as much as I trust a weather forecast a week from today (meaning, it is usually the opposite to what a weatherman is saying).
    Mar 12 12:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu Is Well Poised To Grow Over The Long Term [View article]
    Even though this is mostly a restatement of obvious, someone should keep things in perspective, so www2280 and like him views don't overshadow the reality. My friend, ww2280, it is not a luggage, it is digging a wide moat.

    You did well at that, PT would be nice. But I mostly like to believe larger analyst PT ~$220 is a correct one (maybe even a tiny bit conservative).
    Mar 12 10:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu Inc.: Well Positioned To Grow [View article]
    Marty, you meant GOOG overvalued?
    Mar 10 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu Inc.: Well Positioned To Grow [View article]
    Well, mostly lows are getting higher and highs are getting higher.

    I still expect a significant price appreciation in Fall, the stock will likely stay close to current range through the spring and summer, and have late Q3 or early Q4 rally. There may be a positive surprise if Q2 profitability improves (I see it unlikely, but I see somewhat possible improvement at Q3 report and surely improved Q4 profitability, but Q4 will be reported all the way in 2015), otherwise PT by December $220 is reasonable.

    On the other hand, I am looking on track record as of today, and this does not take unusual geopolitical events like possible war in Ukraine, or China/Japan conflagration, or similar; hopefully none of this will happen.
    Mar 10 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Buy Side Expects From Baidu On Wednesday [View article]
    I have no prediction on Q4 results up - we wish; down - we fear; reality we will know on Wednesday. How market takes it - still another thing altogether.

    However, author, nothing makes your opinion less believable than an obvious and easily avoidable error in your first sentence; if an author really keeps track of facts, that is. The results are due after 4:00 PM ET, not before market open. Nothing more to say about your opinion credibility.
    Feb 25 06:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Led By Mobile, Baidu Can Beat By More Than 40% [View article]
    Gentlemen, I noted that on occasion before. Yahoo finance mixes US$ and Chinese currency numbers in miscellaneous formula calculations - as the author noted and recalculated correctly. This is why the price target and forward PE looks the way it looks. After one of my comments couple of months ago Yahoo actually corrected their calculations, but it lasted only for a day, and then switched back to erroneous target and forward PE calculation again. There are many better places to find good numbers. I would recommend to look at 4-traders.com. Forward PE there is 23 and 17 for 2014 and 2015. These numbers support the general premise of this article very well.
    Feb 4 11:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
99 Comments
40 Likes