Seeking Alpha

Karel Ondriash

Karel Ondriash
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Karel Ondriash's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Broadwind Energy Could Be Set For A 'Towering' 2014 [View article]
    Great article, thank you for the valuable input
    May 14 07:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Third Week For The Stock Market Rebound, And Why [View article]
    An impeccable logic, I've enjoyed reading the article.
    Nov 29 06:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading An Index-Tracking ETF/Inverse ETF Pair May Yield Solid Results  [View instapost]
    Thank you for your questions, Hypnos7.

    The 38% average annual gain is a consequence of the strong market moves in 2008 and 2009. This helped the system to deliver extremely high returns during these years (see Tab.1) thus enhancing the average performance over the whole 5-year period. In my opinion, an annual performance in the range of 25-30% should be more typical.

    Unfortunately, I haven’t back-tested the system’s behavior prior to 2008 yet. I do agree that covering at least one more year - 2007 - would be beneficial for understanding how the system handles the bull market/bear market transition. I’m going to perform this test in the near future. As soon as I have the results, I’ll post them.

    The aggregate model currently consists of 16 independent rules that generate buy/sell signals separately for long and inverse ETFs. Every rule is actually an algorithm dealing with up to 7 parameters. These parameters come from P&F analysis (current market P&F pattern, price objective, and overall market trend), from analysis according to O’Neil’s concepts (current market status), and from 3 technical indicators (statuses of MAs, SSO, and BB). The parameters may have multiple values.

    Each rule has been initially developed to handle a specific market setup that had occurred at least once since January 2008. The market patterns do tend to repeat, however. Every rule has generated more than one signal already. In case of a major market move, the same signal is usually initiated by several rules either simultaneously or within a short time-frame.

    The model has some built-in constraints, including stop losses. So, if a new market pattern emerges from time to time, possible downside is limited. Afterwards, adding a new rule to the system may be considered.

    It seems like this trading system can totally fail just in one case – if the market completely changes its behavior with all the market patterns changing all of a sudden too. In my opinion, such a development is not likely to happen.


    Nov 27 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For The Rebound Is Still Intact [View article]
    Thank you for the insight. World economies seem either to improve or at least stabilize currently. This suggests that odds of a significant market downside go down in the near term. In the next year, it may be a decisive factor whether the improvement in housing will be able to boost shrinking corporate earnings.
    Nov 21 06:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bears Are Back: Out Of Hibernation And Emboldened By Lackluster Fundamentals [View article]
    Indeed, it seems like odds of further sell-off are high. However, markets often behave irrationally for quite a long period of time. This may be especially the case now when it is almost impossible to find anything positive on current market outlook. So, I won't be surprised to see markets revisiting recent highs before resuming their downward move.
    Nov 20 08:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday Market Momentum - Changing For The Better? [View article]
    Markets logged big gains on Monday, but trading volume was low. Outlook remains uncertain.
    Nov 20 05:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment