James Cullen

http://collegeanalysts.com

132 Comments

    • ON: Tue Oct 7th 15:18 PM
      Commented on:
      Wells Fargo and the Wachovia Bid: Crafty or Crazy?
      Sumosama,
      Seems lately when I show any optimism and do that, it doesn't work out too well...
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    • ON: Sat Oct 4th 23:33 PM
      Commented on:
      Five Reasons RIMM Will Continue to Fall
      I did an analysis that was awfully similar to this a year ago when RIMM was around $100. I got plenty of nasty emails, laughed at, mocked, and had mean things said about my mother. I have no opinion on RIMM at present, but hope you'll stick by your convictions... after all, without the people who still believe, how would this fall even more?
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Oct 2nd 17:27 PM
      Commented on:
      Fortis Fails: Who's Next?
      I am not a paid "scaremonger"... and object to any comments suggesting that.

      All I'm trying to show is that leverage is high in European banks - this isn't intrinsically bad, but is worth noting... Now, the assets being leveraged absolutely matter, but the idea that a bank won't have problems because it has been around forever is not logical - see also: Barings, mid-1700s to 1995.
      View article »
    • ON: Mon Sep 15th 00:58 AM
      Commented on:
      Thain's Elegant Exit
      I'd love to know how Thain got a premium for MER stock when it was set to get slaughtered come Monday...
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    • ON: Wed Sep 10th 09:08 AM
      Commented on:
      Primus CEO: Fannie/Freddie Impact Minimal, CDS Will Endure
      The webcast of the presentation and a PDF of the slides is at ir.primusguaranty.com/...
      View article »
    • ON: Fri Sep 5th 16:22 PM
      Commented on:
      The End of the End-of-the-World Trade
      Just the Facts - good point, might need to make a follow up post showing that.
      View article »
    • ON: Tue Sep 2nd 15:33 PM
      Commented on:
      On Being Rich
      An excellent perspective...
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    • ON: Thu Aug 28th 00:10 AM
      Commented on:
      Notes from My Conversation with Cal-Maine CFO Tim Dawson
      Derek,
      Not a problem - I thought your comments were constructive. I tried, unsuccessfully, to argue the various datapoints - cyclical stocks with low P/Es tend to be a bad idea, the price per chicken is skewed in the public/private market, etc., but that's only made me look quite wrong...
      View article »
    • ON: Tue Aug 26th 08:21 AM
      Commented on:
      Credit Default Swaps and Trade
      I agree it's a little ridiculous to start pushing CDS protection on exposures involving receivables, but it isn't entirely bogus - maybe if you compare the financing costs of nonrecourse receivable financing relative to a short-duration CDS, you could get a better idea if there's some arbitrage or value creation in the process...
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    • ON: Mon Aug 25th 00:08 AM
      Commented on:
      Primus Guaranty and the Viability of the CDPC Model
      You raise a good point about the debt Primus is writing insurance on being essentially backed by some of these alphabet soup structured products. Now, the equity in those companies is in the first loss position, but it is possible that the nonperformance of, say, RMBS causes things higher up in the capital structure to be hit. This is something that's always on my mind, but right now I just don't see it being probable. I've said several times I'm essentially hoping not to be black-swanned out of my position, because the other contingencies seem accounted for.

      GAAP doesn't help, but I feel that the industry players are smart enough not to let something like those marks in a continuation vehicle impact their presumption of solvency. Now, if I'm a risk manager I'd be very wary of most counterparties right now - particularly a smaller, newer company like Primus - but should the company come through this market in tact, I'd think it would be difficult to justify not transacting business with them. That's a management problem though, and I trust Primus' management...
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    • ON: Sat Aug 23rd 13:52 PM
      Commented on:
      Notes from My Conversation with Cal-Maine CFO Tim Dawson
      First,
      I think you're splitting hairs, but sure - I was completely wrong about the direction CALM would trade in over the last four months. But does the stock price increasingput my concerns about the fundamentals driving Cal-Maine's business to rest? No.
      View article »
    • ON: Sat Aug 23rd 00:49 AM
      Commented on:
      Notes from My Conversation with Cal-Maine CFO Tim Dawson
      Derek,
      Sorry if I wasn't quite clear. My comments on Primus relate to SouthShore's knock that I missed out on a big gain, and he hopes I'm not being graded on this.

      To clarify things, the purchase of CALM was the result of a democratic vote by my school's investment club. I voted no; the majority voted yes. CALM was thus added to the portfolio, but I have no personal position in the stock.

      Also, the pickup in the rate of insider selling isn't lost on me. Just because I relay what a company's management tells me, doesn't mean I necessarily agree that their optimism will be justified.
      View article »
    • ON: Tue Aug 19th 21:20 PM
      Commented on:
      How Does Barron's Move the Market?
      Every market move needs to be attributed to something, per CNBC policy. Barron's was most convenient for the moment.
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Aug 14th 17:43 PM
      Commented on:
      Notes from My Conversation with Cal-Maine CFO Tim Dawson
      South Shore,
      If you understood how the investment club I'm involved with functions, you'd realize I have to think beyond short-term trading moves. Running a portfolio democratically makes for different circumstances - trades need to be planned ahead of time and voted on, etc., and things grind to a halt for several months out of each year. CALM still makes me nervous because of factors like that.

      Right now, I only own one company - Primus Guaranty - through both the common stock and senior debt. That blend has returned 75%, so I'm not too concerned about missing out on 50% in something I don't understand on nearly the same level.
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Aug 7th 21:18 PM
      Commented on:
      When Is Safety Worse Than Risk?
      Excellent article...
      View article »
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