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Lanzellott

Lanzellott
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  • Strategic buyers express interest in BlackBerry - Reuters [View news story]
    According to my calculations: The minimum price for BBRY, that Watsa needs to get his investment fully back again (including the termination fee of around $225M) would be around $6.5B or 12.3$ per share in case of a foreign takeover. Everything above 6.5B$ would be fantastic to all shareholders and a big present. The maximum sales price for BBRY I see at 7.8B$ or 15$/share at most.

    1. In don't know if a buyer is willing to pay that much or even more!
    A stratectic consortium could afford to pay that much, the question is, if they will?
    2. This case is also highly politically, the Canadian government has to approve it, not only due to the many employees who will loose all their jobs in case of a break up of BBRY and the Canadian state who has to pay for them after, but also due to the sensitive secret stuff that BBRY has with his security servers (Department of defense approval, NATO approval etc.)
    3. I don't think that the Canadian government will accept a future break up of BBRY, which would give now about 7.5B or 14.3$ a
    share and therefore $0.8B in favour of the buyer!
    4. Probably a future buyer has to commit for his intentions what he will do with the parts of BBRY in the future and to continue to run them after restructuring (with high costs involved of over 0.4B) to save as many jobs as possible and to avoid that the Chinese will get the sensitive stuff. That would be for sure less attractive unless they really want to start a new business out of it.
    5. Therefore I stick first to the offer of Watsa for 9$ per share to come through for privatization, as he promised officially to keep the company in Canada and to continue to run the business after another restructuring phase! Like this he will be the winner, if he manages to run the business successfully and a future break-up would be then in his favour!
    Of course 12.3$ would be fantastic to most shareholders with a premium of about 55%.
    But I guess, that Watsa sees the potential of the parts of BBRY and he wants to make the money himself! He is for sure not on the side of the shareholders and just wants to save his investment. From his point of view 9$ is a fair offer (average of 11.5$ and 8$ of the last 3 months) for the poor shareholders to limit their losses! That's why this manipulated low ball play will continue until 4th November until another official bid will turn up. Have you noticed this negativity in the media and the market about BBRY. Even positive news where not mentioned. I guess that this is in Watsas intention to keep the stock as low as possible, as he is not able to bid more than 4.7B$ or 9$/share. And be aware, the potential bidders that showed interest are not sure to really give a bid!! The poker game continues.

    Unfortunately this is the reality!

    My point of view out of an investor in Switzerland.
    Oct 6, 2013. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Jones: BlackBerry receives interest from Cerberus, others [View news story]
    According to my calculations: The minimum price for BBRY, that Watsa needs to get his investment fully back again (including the termination fee of around $225M) would be around $6.5B or 12.3$ per share in case of a foreign takeover.

    1. In don't know if a buyer is willing to pay that much or even more!
    2. This case is also highly politically, the Canadian government has to approve it, not only due to the many employees who will loose all their jobs in case of a break up of BBRY and the Canadian state who has to pay for them after, but also due to the secret stuff that BBRY has with his security (Department of defense approval, NATO approval etc.)
    3. I don't think that the Canadian government will accept a future break up of BBRY, which would give now about 7.5B or 14.3$ a
    share and therefore $0.8B in favour of the buyer!
    4. Probably a future buyer has to commit for his intentions what he will do with the parts of BBRY in the future and to continue to run them after restructuring (with high costs involved of over 0.4B) to save as many jobs as possible and to avoid that the Chinese will get the sensitive stuff. That would be for sure less attractive unless they really want to start a new business out of it.
    5. Therefore I stick to the offer of Watsa for 9$ per share to come through for privatization, as he promised officially to keep the company in Canada and to continue to run the business after another restructuring phase! Like this he will be the winner, if he manages to to run the business successfully and a future break-up would be still in his favour!
    Of course 12.3$ would be fantastic to most shareholders with a premium of about 55%.
    But I guess, that Watsa sees the potential of the parts of BBRY and he wants to make the money himself! He is for sure not on side of the shareholders. From his point of view 9$ is a fair offer (average of 11.5$ and 8$ of the last 3 months) for the poor shareholders to limit their losses! That's why this manipulated low ball play will continue until 4th November. Have you noticed this negativity in the media and the market about BBRY. Even positive news where not mentioned.

    Unfortunately this is the reality!

    My point of view out of an investor in Switzerland.
    Oct 2, 2013. 09:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RIM: Research In Motion Pays A Bounty For Apps As It Approaches D-Day [View article]
    Looking a bit into the future from the facts we have till now from an investor from Switzerland:
    - Since Q3 2012 RIMM has exceeded always the rather "negative" expectations, from most of the analysts and from the market.
    - I'm convinced that more news and positive surprises will follow.
    - The market as realized now the potential of this stock and the shorted positions have decreased to about 20% which is still a lot.
    - I expect that the shorted positions will fade out in the near future.
    - The market will have to learn that about RIMM its not only about mobile:
    - RIMM has the potential again to get a global player of secure mobile paying and NFC. May be the greatest potential at all! Mastercard and American-Express will follow probably soon!
    - If they can sell their OS QNX to other companies like car and house and voice-control (potential of many other areas!)
    and get a global player in this areas too....
    - If they will sell their software that their secure pay-system and APPS works as well on other mobiles like IOS and android...
    - If they will have a wide choice and ecosystem of some cool and trendy APPS...
    - If the BB10 will be a milestone in mobile history and a game-changer and if they will use the same BB10 OS on their tablets....
    - If they can manage all this without system-breakdowns and software problems....and leave the past finally behind....

    there is no doubt, that RIMM will make the turnaround and will make money again in 2014 like a cash-cow!

    Many of the above points are already pointing in to the good direction and I'm positive about RIMM that they will make it.
    Specially with the German CEO with his experience from Siemens, I believe that he is the right man to manage the turnaround.

    All this together has the potential to bring RIMM company back in the long-term to a market-value of north of 50 Billions, that will result in a share-price of north of 100$!

    I would not be surprised if we will see 40$ end of 2013 and 60$ end of 2014 and in the fare 2017 100$!

    For me this plan could work out and looks quite realistic!
    I'm long with RIMM and can wait!
    Jan 19, 2013. 05:38 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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