Smalltownbanker

First-Time Homebuyers Proliferate: What Are the Consequences?

Investor purchase activity today is value driven as opposed to speculation driven. Most investor purchase activity that I see today is buy and hold (rental) as opposed to buy and flip which put us where we are. I think your concerns are unfounded. The high percentage of first time buyers is encouraging and leads to a recovery in the move up market. When the first time buyer purchases it allows the seller to move up. Problem so far is that many with the opportunity to move up have become tenants. This has driven the investment property growth as well.

Housing Litmus Tests: Good News, Bad News, and a Black Swan

Are there any published statistics on what percentage of current sellers, who are the beneficiaries of the tax credit subsidized sale, are actually re-investing in another home. In Georgia we have seen very limited growth in move up buyers who have managed to sell to an FTF. (First Time Fool)

Worst Housing Number in Decades: What Is the Wall Street Media Smoking?

The fact is that the numbers 4 years ago were seriously out of whack with reality of genuine demand. We were building to speculatory demand and not real demand for homes. The articles you quote are looking for positive evidence of a bottom or the beginning of recovery whichever way you want to spin it. Increasing housing starts are an indication of an increase in new loans building specifically for a buyer who has not found what they want in a foreclosure or market resale.

As a mortgage banker for a Community Bank I am speaking with people almost everyday who are preparing to build their own new home. This is positive. Yes we still have a lot of pain to go through but I will not and never will succomb to the idiots who have no perspective on the Great Depression, my parents lived through it, since our situation today is no where close to what they went through.

I am as troubled as anyone by the current and just past administration's handling of this mess but think they are too stupid to get much done in a positive vein anyway. As long as they are fumbling around up in Washington this will be a protracted recession of historical proportions but I see no evidence pointing to depression.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Isn't it encouraging to know that the bailout funds for GMAC / GM are being used to re-instate a program that hasn't worked to help the two companies over the last two years. I am soooo sure it will work now that we are all paying the tab for the buyers interest...

What Happened to Objectivity and Integrity?

Great article. There is certainly enough guilt to go around and as a sort of private regulatory entity CPA's certainly are entitled to their share however the lenders, the regulators, the underwriters, the appraisers, and in all cases the policy makers share a portion of the blame. The CEO's and other senior management personnel who led the banks and investment banks efforts to package and sell this trash to the investor should be held responsible and someone should be subject to prosecution for the perpetration of the largest fraud scheme in American History.

We are prosecuting appraisers on the front end of individual transactions for overstating a home's value. Why then are we not prosecuting the responsible individuals at the back end for grossly overstating the value of assets. Abberant behavior is best discouraged by meaningful punishment and in this case incarceration would be appropriate, not just for the Maddof's but possibly those who created the means by which this fraud was perpetrated.

Has the Housing Price Bubble Deflated?

The answer to your headline question is in general "No". In certain markets the answer may be yes but nationally there is still excess air in that baby due to the excess supply and the demand which continues to fall. If you listen to academics for economic solutions you will get historical perspectives. Our current situation is somewhat unique in that it doesn't compare well directly with previous bubbles in real estate. That bubble will deflate fully when the foreclosure levels return to more normal levels and the affordability returns to normal based on real wages.

Here Comes the Foreclosure Cavalry

In short.

The government did not exercise its regulatory authority when it should have so now they are intervening in every way the can and prolonging the mess which they allowed to go unchecked. I am not sure which is worse, the greed which created the problem or the ignorance and incompetence which allowed it and is now perpetuating it.

Time Not for a Bailout, But for Nationalization

Thank God you are no longer in the White House advising anyone!

Talk of a Real Estate Bottom Already Is a Waste of Breath

Remove Arizona, California, Florida, Nevada and a few other coastal markets from your chart and you will find a different picture of those spreads. The biggest problem with all of the analysis out there is that it is generalized over the entire nation excluding adjustments for regional differences. See analysis performed by PMI for risk assessment (available at pmigroup.com). The majority of the nation is not expected to see the catastrophic plunges in market value that will be experienced in these markets where speculative purchases ruled the day. Reality is that most of the nation's markets will scarcely see a decline because they are still actually affordable. OK. Now you can go back to the sky is falling and your chicken little story.

Jobless Claims Not in Recession Territory Yet

Care to take a wag at what those numbers would look like if you factored in all of the illegal aliens who cannot file jobless claims who have lost their construction, landscaping and day labor jobs in the last 12 months.