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  • Nokia Vs. Research In Motion: Only One Will Survive [View article]
    That is true, though it is not the case anymore (cost of SW). Software for personal use has become inexpensive, so it is easy to switch if only look at the cost of SW perspective.

    I belong to the small group who prefers OS X over Windows for my personal computing needs. In corporate world the reality is however different. The three major reasons for sticking with Windows in business are probably the large installed base of legacy systems, relative ease of Windows deployment and end user skills. Even if you get software for free, the real cost of switching into something new is deployment and end user training and tech support. This is probably one explanation why Linux and Open Office have never really taken off.

    The same applies to a certain extent to phones as well. I switched over from iOS to WP8 and I am a heavy OS X / iOS user - still use iPads. The migration from whatever to iOS was quite smooth. The migration from iOS / i Cloud to WP8 is a PITA. Also, I find the UI in WP8 more inconsistent than iOS, but I think it will improve with time.

    My point here is, that the cost of switching is not the cost of software you may have to replace, it is the time you need to put down into learning something new and figuring out how to synchronise your stationary/cloud data with your mobile devices. This creates stickiness.

    Again, the UI in cars is pretty much the same. You can have a stick vs automatic, but the rest is just about the same. Driving is just as much about observing the world around than handling your car. It is much easier to switch.
    Jan 16 06:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will 2013 Be The Year Of Nokia? [View article]
    For mobile browsing it (LTE vs 3G) really doesn't make that much of a difference. For downloading media and other big files it does.

    It is great to have the fast connection when sharing the connection for your laptop, for example. You can always plug a cable into a usb port and not worry about your phone battery.
    Jan 16 04:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will 2013 Be The Year Of Nokia? [View article]
    @Systemet, Leont68

    Thanks for good hints. I will turn off LTE and only use it if I tether a laptop for dl's & videos if that helps. I did turn off automatic calendar and email sync too in order to increase battery life. It is true that some background tasks can really drain your battery, so I need to check what's going on.

    We'll see if that makes a difference...
    Jan 15 05:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2012 Global Handset Market Share Analysis [View article]
    I don't think the smartphone market is any different to any other maturing market in consumer goods or services. It gets increasingly more difficult to get extraordinary profits and margins will inevitably shrink. From this perspective, the players with the fattest margins have most to lose.

    The only ones able to retain abnormal margins over time are high end luxury players like Hermès, Bottega Veneta, Graff, Patek Philippe, and likes. Vertu is really the only consumer electronics brand that has ever seriously tried to make it in the luxury scene. Their offering is more than hardware, it includes also services, such as the concierge. Vertu has not been too successful in it - I have a Vertu phone collecting dust in a drawer.

    So, I believe Apple is far from a safe position and vulnerable to margin erosion. Hence shipped volume is, imo, more interesting in the long run than margin.
    Jan 14 07:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Is Now The Time To Cash In? [View article]
    @stealthology

    Markets are, as you pointed out, a lot about psychology.

    The rise of computer / algorithm trading during the past years has, however, changed the behaviour of the financial markets to, imho, a more irrational direction.

    People use technical analys hoping to catch part of that market psychology. We know that there is mean reversion in (price) time series of financial instruments and that there are traders who manage to perform quite well over time doing time series analysis. These guys are, however, typically quant shops with more PhD's than secretaries - such as D.E. Shaw.

    Market timing is really difficult - there is a saying that the Wall Street has killed more j than H. Trading is a full time job and there are no guarantees that you make it - so I don't trade, I invest.
    Jan 14 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Vs. Research In Motion: Only One Will Survive [View article]
    Cars and phones/computers are not quite the same. The UI in all cars is pretty much the same. They all run the "same OS" if we compare cars to computers.

    I think a more relevant comparison is personal computers. Windows is a dominant platform in it's different incarnations, OS X has around 7 % of the desktops and Linux is hovering somewhere between 1 and 2 %.

    I think the the author does have a point in that long term risks in RIMM are much greater than in Nokia.

    I think you should Google Benefon. Benefon was a highly successful Finnish maker of Nordic NMT phones (Nordiska Mobiltelefongruppen). They had a lot of problems moving into GSM radio technology and were a late entrant to the GSM scene. They did have some really cool products like the Benefon Esc!, announced 1999. This was probably the first phone in the world with GPS and maps - and it was water and shock resistant too.
    http://bit.ly/UlE9jx

    Anyway, Benefon didn't get their act together in time and it was trading for quite some time as a penny stock before they finally went belly up.
    http://bit.ly/10v4emo
    Jan 14 06:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will 2013 Be The Year Of Nokia? [View article]
    I have the latest OS update but still think the battery life is not great. I do use the phone a lot for online access with LTE & Wifi. Let's see if charge/discharge cycles help. BandWith gives me LTE download speeds between 10-14 Mbps depending on the server etc. Quite good.
    Jan 14 05:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will 2013 Be The Year Of Nokia? [View article]
    Dividends are the most important contributor to long term real return on equities. Hence paying dividends is imo almost always a better option than buybacks - though you do have a point with the current valuation.

    http://bit.ly/VYx73N
    Jan 13 08:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will 2013 Be The Year Of Nokia? [View article]
    More impressions on the new Lumia from an iOS & Mac OS X user perspective:

    I do like the phone and the large screen. There are of course some idiosyncrasies and I think that some of them are because Apple holds some UI related patents and competition has to figure out other ways to do the same thing. I have used iOS so much, that I keep on trying to do things the iOS way. It does not mean that the WP8 is worse, it is just that the gestures are in my gut. Then there are things like the screen not always rotating when you rotate the device and this happens in built in apps, which you would expect to work on both orientations.

    There are some apps I would like to see on WP and some apps I hope were better - most notably Bloomberg. I think the WP AppStore is better than Apple's. What really bugs me with Apple AppStore is that if you have browsed sever pages forward and click into an app to see the explanation etc., it usually (but not always) throws you back to screen one. I find this extremely frustrating.

    What is imo the worst and biggest problem with the WP OS, is the poor Mac OS X support. The single biggest omission that makes transition from a pure Apple environment a true pain in the butt is the lack of CalDAV / CardDAV support. I have six Macs at home and have used iCloud for calendar and contacts. Now WP OS is forcing me to go over to Google.

    In order to sync calendar and contacts you have to go through a google account and be pretty compter savvy. The OS X WP app syncs media, but not the important things, like contacts and calendar. This is definitely something that should be MS top priority and if MS is not doing it, Nokia should do a proprietary app. This makes transition a true pain.

    Now, how big an issue is this really? Not as bad as it initially sounds. If we look at the OS market shares, we see that OS X is just above 7 %. The majority uses different Windows versions and from there the transition is a walk in the park.

    http://bit.ly/xkH9iS

    Anyway, it is easier for a Windows user to deploy an iPhone than it is for an OS X user to deploy a Windows phone. I sincerely believe that this is an area that needs to be addressed.

    Overall I am happy with the phone. Battery life could be better, but making sure that you only have the radios turned on that you really need and turning off automatic account syncing improves the battery life. This is, however, a problem common to all big screen smartphones.

    Summa summarum. Great device, poor support for OS X, no CalDAV/CardDAV and there are still some quirks and features that need polishing in coming OS releases. I am still happy to be long at NOK1V:FH.
    Jan 13 08:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Earnings Preview Intervention Could Illustrate Internal Pressure On Elop [View article]
    Apart from legislation, the Rules and Regulations of the exchanges where a company is listed governs their communication. In Finland, in addition to the corporate legislation, the Securities Market Act is a central piece of legislation for a listen company (it is being rewritten at the moment): http://bit.ly/V0Qr1C

    If you look at the rules of the Nasdaq-OMX Helsinki Exchange, the general disclosure requirements can be found on p32 and specific disclosure requirements on p34.

    http://bit.ly/Wx4byc

    When it comes to forecasts and forward looking statements, the listed companies can pretty much decide what kind of guidance they want to give, if any, but they have to be consistant in doing this. Even if the management decides not to give any guidance, or in case where they have given guidance, as Nokia does, and they have new information that deviates from the guidance and can significantly affect the share price, they have to disclose the information. I would say that a piece of information that leads to a 20% daily appreciation in share price qualifies as significant.

    Just for the record, I am a member of the BoD in a company (not Nokia) listed in Helsinki.
    Jan 11 05:27 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Nokia Earnings, Don't Expect Surprises Based On Handsets [View article]
    No, I bought Nokia for the very same reason, even though I personally prefer OSX over Windows.

    If we look at enterprise solutions and larger corporations, OSX simply does not exist there. It is all Windows. I truly believe that the greatest benefits of WPnn will be there in integration to enterprise/corporate arvhitecture, data security, remote management, sharepoint and enterprise content management, etc.

    We haven't even scratched the surface of these areas yet. I think RIM is probably the player who can be hurt most in relative terms when MS starts to roll out mobile enterprise solutions big time.
    Jan 11 04:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will 2013 Be The Year Of Nokia? [View article]
    Thanks shodamo!

    Maybe I should read the .... manual ))

    I have been toying around a little more with the device and trying to figure out, among other things, how to get an iCloud calendar synced etc. (can apparently be done through Google calendar).

    I like the feel of the device - even the weight - it adds to the feel. L920 feels more rugged that the iPhones I have had. My oldest son upgraded to iPhone 5 and when comparing the devices side-by-side I prefer the feel and screen of the L920.

    Anyway, I think boh are great devices and it is great to see the MS-Nokia co-operation finally bearing fruit.
    Jan 11 04:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will 2013 Be The Year Of Nokia? [View article]
    I didn't prepay to Nokia, I prepaid to the dealer. Why? In order to make sure that I get the phone when they get them. If I only had reserved it (and not fetched it in due course), they might have given it to someone else.

    Well, I got my phone today anyway. First impressions...: nice screen and feel. As a long time iOS user I find some things irritating and some thing really nice; maybe I should just bother to read the manual - though I think you should be able to use a phone out of box without a manual.

    First impressions:
    =============
    What do I like? Really nice big screen, solid feel, standard micro usb connection, some of the proprietary Nokia software, the startup screen and Office. This phone is for private use and there are lots of applications for corporate use. As a Mac user I am not getting a full benefit of all the Windows related goodies, but most pc's in the world are running Windows anyway.

    What do I miss most? Folders and double clicking on the mid button to get a list apps you are running (maybe I just do not know how to do it). Also, some of my favourite apps are better on the iOS, like Bloomberg. Oh, and I would change the position of the power button, I keep on hitting it accidentally.

    Better or worse - time will tell - I think both are good. I have used iOS so much (and still do), that initially I find WP8 less intuitive.

    I think that Nokia with Elop at helm has made good strategic decisions. I think WP will offer more differentiation opportunities, particularly in the future, than Android would have offered. I do not, of course, know what the drivers for dropping Meego were, but this is something I would not have done. I would have kept Meego just as an option for the future (low end phones). Maybe the MS deal forced Nokia to dump Meego? Who knows?

    I am long 70K NOK1V @ 4,23€ and will stay long
    Jan 10 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Update - Profitability Is Back, But Future Still In Doubt [View article]
    I was actually expecting a little larger number, but is not important for now. Nokia is out of the doldrums, that is important.

    I hold 70K NOK1V:FH @4,23€ (~$5,60) on average. I started buying at around 6,50€ and have been accumulating on the way down. The reason for this was not Lumia 920 or whatever the handset may be called. The reason was Nokia's scale (still #2 in the world) and the potential that MS co-operation offers on the corporate side.

    I believe that WP platform will prove to be hugely successful in a few years time on the corporate scene and Nokia will be the dominant hardware supplier. This is why I am bullish on Nokia on a longer term. NSN, maps, patent pf, etc. are of course a welcomed addition into the portfolio.

    I finally got my 920 today which I ordered before Christmas. I have only started the device and need to create some accounts, etc. Let's see how an iOS and heavy OSX users gets along with this toy... (I still have a couple of iPads and an iPhone lying around)
    Jan 10 01:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Nokia Earnings, Don't Expect Surprises Based On Handsets [View article]
    I have broken one iPhone and one iPad with water damage. Neither was immersed in water.

    The phone was in a protective pouch in a rainy day. I was travelling and used the phone as a camera. The humidity and residual water transferred from my hands into the pouch was enough to kill it - for good.

    The iPad was in a watertight bag in a bilge in rough weather on a 40ft match racing boat. The bag had leaked a little and my clothes were damp, not soaked, but the iPad never recovered.

    So, I presume none of the modern phones like water or humidity - with the exception of the just announced Xperia Z from Sony.
    Jan 10 12:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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