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  • Wall Street's Calling The Sheep: Buy The Dip Now, Join The Slaughter Later [View article]
    Mr. Stockman is correct in what he is saying if we were to overlay current market data over a previous time period (when interest rates were much higher than today). However, what has changed is the current interest rates. Should the 10 year Treasury rate rise significantly, the stock market will plummet. But if we knew interest rates were to stay at this level for the intermediate or long term, then the PE ratios today actually makes the stock market a bargain. So my real question is what will be the Treasury 10 year rate 3 - 5 years from now?
    Feb 18, 2015. 07:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Real Is The Off-Grid Solar Threat To Utilities? (Part II) [View article]
    This article and the one you wrote previously about off grid residential is absolutely spot on. The biggest problem with solar of course is supplementing the energy requirements when the sun is not shining. And the lack of sunshine can go on for a significant period of time. Residential customers are pretty much stuck with utilities. While a battery backup can provide some minimal power, it cannot be relied upon exclusively as the sole source.

    I'm thinking that the commercial customers can do very nicely with solar and fuel cell type of backup and be entirely off grid. The fuel cell industry is not quite there yet but it looks like it will be forthcoming. And as you point out - many of the commercial customers have the space requirements so this could work nicely. A win/win - cheaper power and environmentally friendly. Oh and yes, Jinko Solar is the solar play here.
    Dec 23, 2014. 07:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great Correction Of 2014: Be Prepared To 'Buy The Dip' [View article]
    You can tweak your basic strategy somewhat and significantly increase your return while waiting for the market correction. Instead of cash, buy a very stable high dividend yielding stock (like Verizon) and sell a covered call (LEAP) deep into the money. That gives you downside protection and at the same time a great dividend yield. Then sell a "naked put" as described by the author but not in the stock with the covered call (in this case Verizon).
    Jun 10, 2014. 08:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind: Confidence And Cancer [View article]
    Sorry Tri but the AdCom was aware of how lungs function. It is known that Afreeza does cause some lung damage (albeit minor) and unlike dust does not get completely removed from the lungs. As part of the lung cancer discussion, the panel said anyone with a pre existing lung condition must never take inhaled Afreeza (and several of the panel members said the label needs to state that). While it was not asked explicitly, I had the impression that the real question was: "Will Afreeza turn out to be another Asbestos type of occurrence"?
    May 15, 2014. 08:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind: Confidence And Cancer [View article]
    I was at the AdCom meeting and I think no one has adequately captured the cancer concern. The panel opened up the cancer discussion by noting that part of Afreeza (about 1%) never leaving the lungs and that was the big cancer concern. They specifically mentioned that the lung cancer question could not be answered with animal testing because the test animals would die from hypoglycemia long before lung cancer could be proven. (they were talking about lung cancer not discussing in general if Afreeza causes cancer - big difference). The panel admitted that there is no evidence at this point that inhaled Afreeza is going to cause lung cancer. But they did say that it would take about 10 years before anyone could conclude one way or the other. By the way I am long MNKD but concerned.
    May 14, 2014. 06:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar: A High-Return Strategy For The Long-Term Investor [View article]
    Your strategy is actually excellent but very seldom used. I'm guessing that people do not understand what the strategy is doing. Most of the comments I hear about this strategy is that there is a high risk that you could lose a lot with a very finite amount that can be gained. However, as you point out, if you like the stock then there is no risk. In the case of the put, you are hedging your bet. If you "lose" (that is the stock goes down), you are buying the stock at a discount. If you "win" (stock goes up), you are keeping the sales proceeds from the put. I'm actually not as enthusiastic about the call; however, you do make a good point that if you lose the stock you can immediately sell a put.
    Apr 16, 2014. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The FDA Document Says About Afrezza: Implications For FDA Approval [View article]
    I guess the point I am not really clear on is whether the FDA is even allowed to consider the issue that Afrezza is much better at controlling blood sugar surges. If I understand all of this correctly, FDA in their Compliance Letter advised Mannkind exactly what was needed in order to obtain approval. There was no mention about blood sugar surges - only proving the non inferiority of Afrezza when compared to insulin (for type 1's). I am still not certain from the FDA's document whether in fact they did meet the non inferiority requirement. On the one hand I think FDA is saying that they did and then on the other hand it appears that the requirement was not met. So does the Advisory Committee (I know they are independent from the FDA) really have the authority to look beyond what FDA set out (that is controlling blood surges) and recommend approval?
    Mar 30, 2014. 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Richest Man In History Reveals His Simple Wealth Generating Secret [View article]
    I think perhaps a better strategy would be to just stick with the "Dogs" and do a buy and hold. You avoid the situation of having too many short term capital losses that cannot be deducted (over $3,000) as well as constantly buying/selling the same stocks over and over again. If you want to stretch your yield, buy covered calls with a strike price right about what you paid for the stock. Of course the disadvantage of the covered call strategy is you don't get the stock appreciation.
    Mar 27, 2014. 09:34 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Believe IsoRay Is Overvalued By At Least 40% From Its Current Price ($1.50 Target) [View article]
    There is one real point that is not being addressed head on which will determine the potential value of the company: Is their product truly effective in the treatment of cancer and if it is what other products are out there which effectively do the same thing. So it comes down to efficacy and moat. How good is the product and do they own patents which prevent others from competing. We know general radiation and chemotherapy will work sometimes if they don't kill the patient first. DNA therapy while on the horizon is not there. Can anyone address efficacy and moat?
    Mar 22, 2014. 08:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ruby Tuesday: The Next Great Turnaround Play [View article]
    I bought this stock based on this article and before I actually ate there. I did this in part because about 15 years ago, I was out of town and spent every night eating there for about a week because of their exceptional salad bar.

    Two days ago I went to a RT to see the improvements. The salad bar had about the same choices as you get when you go to Subway and they ask you what you want on your sub. Pathetic. The rest of the menu was fair at best. The place was 90% empty (weekday lunch).

    So I made a mistake when I bought this stock. Don't you do the same. Go visit the place before thinking this is a turnaround opportunity.
    Mar 20, 2014. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind's Day Of Reckoning Is Getting Very Close [View article]
    I think there is only one key point that is at risk and that is what RRobster pointed out in his comment. And that is the potential of FDA having issues concerning possible deep lung damage. Ever article I have seen brushes this aside (minor cough that goes away after awhile). I am not sure that this doesn't turn out to be the show stopper. Absent the lung concern, this stock is clearly a no brainer for any long position.
    Jan 14, 2014. 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noodles comp sales slightly worse than originally reported [View news story]
    This certainly is not helping the stock in the short term. The herd always likes it when the results beat the projections. And with this correction, the mood will turn even more negative. But looking at the stock valuation when comparing revenue to market cap, this stock has very solid long term growth potential. There's no question that future revenue will continue to grow and most likely will grow fairly rapidly - assuming no more "significant weather headwinds". In my opinion, Noodles can eventually grow to the size Chipotle is right now. And the gross margins are where they need to be.
    Jan 13, 2014. 06:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biodiesel Blenders' Tax Credit Expired - Now What? [View article]
    You are correct - I totally missed your point re: the arbitrage. If this were truly a done deal, then buying/shorting would be a risk free way of making money.
    Jan 10, 2014. 09:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Biodiesel Blenders' Tax Credit Expired - Now What? [View article]
    I can answer why SYNM is only $4.27. The general consensus is that without the tax credit REGI will continue to fall precipitously. I'm guessing that the bears are figuring REGI will end up around $5/share. Given that, SYNM should only be worth about $2/share and that's before all of this legal uncertainty.

    Suggestion: Sell a REGI naked put with a strike price of $7.50 with a July expiration date. If you lose, and REGI is under $7.50 at the expiration date, then you have bought the stock for $7.50 less whatever you receive for the naked put.
    Jan 10, 2014. 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate EPS of $0.39 [View news story]
    A perfect Benjamin Graham company. Constantly beating management projections, steady upward growth in a business that is easy to understand, a P/E ratio that is insanely low and selling at about 2/3rds book value.
    Nov 8, 2013. 07:18 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment