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gwaterloo

gwaterloo
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  • Medifast: A Charade Wrapped In A Farce, Inside A Deception [View article]
    In the short term i agree, but they always will spend more money marketing in the 4Q than the 3Q. The question is what is the return on that amount of spending and whether they are under-investing compared to their competitors. Any company that depends on marketing can always improve earnings by cutting marketing expense, but just because you have the flexibility to increase or decrease this amount doesn't mean that you are automatically making optimal decisions for the long term benefit of the company. It is a good thing to spend intelligently and generate cash flow, but it's not like this is a tobacco company and it should solely be managed to maximize short term cash flow. Ultimately, you need to see some growth in revenues.
    Nov 12, 2014. 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medifast: A Charade Wrapped In A Farce, Inside A Deception [View article]
    thanks very much for sharing your personal experience as a health coach
    interesting perspective

    to me, a company that consistently misses revenue estimates, but can beat earnings estimates due to a litany of one-time items usually runs out of free passes from wall street eventually. i can see ulysses point that there is not a direct link between marketing expense and health coach growth (and that lower compensation is more likely the reason), but cutting compensation and lowering marketing are really 2 sides of the same coin. It is hard to see how a company can grow revenues if it is obsessed with making earnings numbers each quarter by cutting the very items necessary to grow. I would be more impressed with MED management if they were able to permanenently lower fixed costs or find a way to achieve higher gross margins than cutting discretionary items each quarter
    Nov 10, 2014. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medifast: A Charade Wrapped In A Farce, Inside A Deception [View article]
    then how do you explain the persistent decline in coaches.
    if advertising has nothing to do with it, then what do you think they need to do to improve their ability to attract and retain coaches
    Nov 6, 2014. 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medifast: A Charade Wrapped In A Farce, Inside A Deception [View article]
    nicely done.
    i am surprised the stock went up actually given that the all important metric heading into the quarter was supposedly the number of coaches, which ended up below estimates and was down year-over-year. Also, the sales guidance was reduced yet again.

    If you had shown me the quarter before it was reported, I would have predicted that the stock would go down, not up on those metrics. I wonder how much the stock would have gone up if the results had actually been impressive
    Nov 6, 2014. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Below's Fair Value Is Only ~$27 - Long-Term Unit Potential Is Around 1,300 Stores, Not 2,000 [View article]
    i am located in philly and do like the stores, but there is no question that last year they benefited immensely from rainbow loom craze. i think your google trends analysis maybe ties into that.

    given last quarter was just ok, i think another just ok quarter could definitely break the stock this time, especially if comps are negative.

    anyway, good write-up.
    Oct 24, 2014. 10:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Below's Fair Value Is Only ~$27 - Long-Term Unit Potential Is Around 1,300 Stores, Not 2,000 [View article]
    nicely done work
    stock acts kind of doggy, too,
    Oct 23, 2014. 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Athenahealth's Story In Numbers: Slowing Sales Growth, Contracting Margins And Rising Capital Expenditure [View article]
    long term and short do not mix well
    why not just wait until you think a catalyst will actually work and then turn it into a short term short. these type of shorts work much better after they get crushed than before. i am not saying this is easy, but in your mind, you should at least believe it is about to work soon, not eventually
    Sep 3, 2014. 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Athena - The Bubble Might Burst Soon [View article]
    believe it or not, i used to publish short research (also managed a short-biased hedge fund for 13 1/2 years) and David Einhorn was a research client. This was mid to late 90s. He is brilliant. No argument there. However, the bulk of his performance, hands down, comes from the long side, yet you never see him tout his longs (or very rarely anyway) yet he is somehow known as a short seller. yes, he is thorough and his views should be respected, but there is nothing unique in how he analyzes something. I have no problem with either Einhorn or him promoting his views. My issue is with all the long managers who never seem to have a care in the world despite obvious problems that they should see on their own. I have seen this over and over, many in shorts far more egregious than ATHN and their slick CEO
    May 6, 2014. 08:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Athena - The Bubble Might Burst Soon [View article]
    i get really annoyed that people like david einhorn are somehow required to make known what should already be known by investors.
    May 5, 2014. 09:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Apple holding music service talks, mulling Android iTunes app [View news story]
    i hear from my son and his friends that spotify is much better than pandora because you can select the specific song you want to listen to on spotify but that you can't on pandora. is this true and even without apple entering, is there any reason why pandora does not allow the same to be done on their service ?
    Mar 22, 2014. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medifast A Sell Ahead Of Earnings As Diet Sector Evolves Past Meetings And 'Coaches' [View article]
    i think your gloating does a disservice to yourself.
    you may have gotten the bull/bear psychology correct in terms of reaction to a binary event, but there was nothing all that positive about the earnings and the guidance for q1 was lowered so i am not really clear what value you have added in your role as weight loss industry expert. are you a stock analyst or a weight loss industry expert? The two skill sets are not one and the same

    the valuation is low and the short interest is high and obviously there are bulls who believe that MED will end up a much more profitable entity by focusing closing/franchising the centers and focusing on MLM, but the one day stock reaction is not proof in itself that the company will be successful or that the author's arguments are not valid.
    Mar 11, 2014. 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Medifast A Sell Ahead Of Earnings As Diet Sector Evolves Past Meetings And 'Coaches' [View article]
    they also had a 21% tax rate versus an expectation of 35% which had a pretty significant positive impact on eps
    Mar 10, 2014. 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medifast A Sell Ahead Of Earnings As Diet Sector Evolves Past Meetings And 'Coaches' [View article]
    "This analysis seems to focus almost exclusively on Medifast's online metrics, and during the 4th quarter of the year (which is historically the weakest part of the year for all diet companies, due to the holiday parties)."

    It looks to me that the author is citing plenty of Q1 2014 data, which is the most critical period of the year for diet companies. Not sure why you think it is mostly Q4 data.

    Also, wouldnt the bad winter alone adversely affect visits to Medifast centers this quarter? I would think that this might be a headwind, albeit something outside the company's control
    Mar 7, 2014. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold fix manipulated for a decade, says study [View news story]
    maybe all the paranoid gold bugs aren't so crazy after all
    Feb 28, 2014. 09:51 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious metals slide as taper set to grow [View news story]
    to date, how has QE been inflationary in any way?
    the cash sits on the balance sheet of a bank that collects interest for doing nothing.
    i strongly believe that QE actually has a negative effect on economic activity and is actually deflationary-real estate and stock speculation the exceptions-because if anything, it creates a disincentive for banks to take any risks by lending out money. Therefore, money velocity is anemic and inflationary conditions with QE in place are next to impossible.
    Jan 21, 2014. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
109 Comments
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