Thinking ahead

65 Comments

    • PotashCorp and Mosaic: Get Your Orders Ready [view article]
      I've been doing this same thing for years (although not on MOS -- yet), Yikes! I'm a chartist! Is there a secret handshake or something? Jun 23 04:31 PM
    • Is Whiting Petroleum Undervalued? [view article]
      I'm really proud of this one. Bought it at $37. What a great team. Simple explore - develop - produce circle. Minimal downstream assets and a really really good nose for property. From CEO to land man to roughneck, WLL is a fine company. Jun 19 11:01 AM
    • Anadarko Petroleum's Positives Outweigh Negatives [view article]
      Why shouldn't APC do what every single NOC on earth is doing to APC and others? The energy business has changed, and everybody has to adjust. The LP's can vote with their feet. But I doubt many will. Jun 13 10:47 AM
    • Transocean: Drilling For Profits [view article]
      One more point in RIG's favor: building new drillships is onerous enough. But finding and developing the on-rig talent to keep these things working safely 24/7 is a huge problem for every driller. Both RIG and DO are way in front on this, and have several campuses around the world to train new staff. Will some get picked off by others? sure. But that deep pool of talent is going to be just as valuable as the platforms themselves in the decades to come. I have been sitting on these stocks since 2006 and see no reason to budge now. Jun 11 11:11 AM
    • Petrobras: Extremely Overvalued [view article]
      I like this report. Keep them coming, please. I've also passed on PBR but play Brazil oil through DO and RIG. I agree that PBR is being run like a lot of NOC's, i.e. for the benefit of the "people" not the owners. But the company is snapping up drill ships at every chance. Jun 02 10:31 AM
    • Will GE Drop Below $30? [view article]
      There is only one truthful voice on stocks - - Mr. Market. What is Mr. Market saying about GE? Jun 02 10:18 AM
    • 4 Stocks in Trouble [view article]

      MOS is a wild ride lately, but I'm looking forward to the next earnings report. Now is the time to buy this group (ag) -- not sell it.       May 29 12:34 PM
    • Perfect Oil Storm Brewing in the U.S. [view article]
      If anybody is looking to make up their mind about the supply side of this question, take the time to actually read "Twilight in the Desert". I believe you will be convinced that surplus production from the mideast is a myth. And if so, where will the replacement oil come from? The Brazilian finds are giants, but not super-giants. One more tidbit I picked up from the book: whenever you see oil being pumped out of the ground (as opposed to naturally flowing), that oil field is almost exhausted. May 28 03:31 PM
    • Smells Good: The Case for Natural Gas [view article]
      Fitz: good article. But no mention of NG liquids (propane and butane are the biggest). What is the future for these products? And I was surprised that APC wasn't listed, since it trades at less than 9X PE and it's the second largest NG producer in the US. May 28 12:09 PM
    • Can Steel Stocks Continue to Climb? [view article]
      I agree with your thoughts and I'm enjoying the ride on X and ATI. But I wonder if the steel companies could somehow get caught in the same bind that the oil refiners are in. Remember the talk about "not a single new refiner built in the US in 40 years . . . "? Turns out, they got caught in a squeeze between input cost escalation and anaemic pricing power. I'm just being cautious here, and still holding those X and ATI shares. May 19 10:52 AM
    • Gold and Oil Price Limits [view article]
      James;
      Don't you think that before even liberal democrats pay $25 for bread, that they will demand the US tap the big oil reserves in Alaska and offshore Florida, California and the whole east coast?       May 14 01:00 PM
    • Potash Arena Shrinking After BHP's Acquisition of Anglo Potash [view article]
      I am very interested in this area, but admit to near total ignorance. I looked at the large fertilizer names and settled on MOS. My reasoning was that the potash field is a little crowded and Mosaic gets about half of its revenues from phophate (?) fertilizer and the other half from potash. On the MOS call they said they were very excited about prospects for both, but that the phosphate side had less competition. Any thoughts/counterpoint for me? This message just about exhausts my own knowledge of the subject, and web resources seem at assume readers have chemical engineering degrees. May 14 09:30 AM
    • What's Better: BlackBerry or iPhone? [view article]
      I own both companies. I recently added RIMM because the one big iPhone + is the browser, and I'm betting that the Bold browser will be much improved. If so, it makes it that much harder to dislodge crackberry users from their beloved units. Blackberrys are all about email - including composing email -- and the blackberry is a better product for that use. But I think AAPL was smart to patent the squeeze-expand feature (and other variants) that rely on two fingers using the touch screen together. This is a natural and ingenious method of spanning and expanding the human to machine interface. Like I said, both are good products and great stocks.

      But I sure don't have my identity mixed up with some company that doesn't know or care about me. So if either or both vanish tomorrow, I'll get along fine anyway.       May 13 05:11 PM
    • A Look at Earnings from Transocean and Devon [view article]
      RIG is a name to put in the drawer and take out once a year for a peek. The drillers have unmatched visibility, and RIG is not only the biggest but one of the cheapest. Most importantly, deepwater drilling is dependant on not only rigs, but qualified people. In this sense RIG has a very nice moat around it. On the call, the CEO admitted RIG would lose market share, but only because it is practically 100% booked for the next several years. Nice business at a 10.5X PE.

      One comment on DVN. Why exclude the "one time charge" on gas hedges? That is nonsense. Those hedges are integral to the business as much as the cost of drill pipe. Put the $780 million loss back in the Q1 results - those dollars count too.       May 09 11:24 AM
    • Ag Stocks Could Have Steep Pullbacks [view article]
      I'm long MON and MOS, but have tight stops on MON. MON is unbelieveably exciting, but the 2009 earnings forecast is $4. $125 is a lot of stock price to be riding just 4 bucks. MOS is different. The forward PE on that is around 13, with monster growth. Plus, it dominates the phosphate business and doesn't need to rely only on Potash (or compete with POT and the rest). Finally, forget about anybody making Nitrogen based fertilizer from Nat Gas. Anybody can join that crummy commodity business. Apr 25 04:35 PM
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