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Hyrcania

Hyrcania
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  • With a U.S. student dropping out of high school every 26 seconds, the unemployment rate seems sure to keep rising. Dropouts are ineligible for 90% of the total jobs in the economy, and those who find work earn 40 cents of every dollar a college grad earns. And in this recession, the gap between educational haves and have-nots is growing.  [View news story]
    Poor have-nots. Maybe you shouldn't drop out of the easiest educational system in the international community, lazy bunch of idiots.
    Jul 12 07:13 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Upcoming Crash Of Apple And Amazon [View article]
    If you disagree with article you should play the ball and not the player.
    Sep 30 01:38 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Already up on the day, crude oil flies higher on a report of an attack and explosion on a Saudi pipeline. WTI crude (USO) +2.3% to $109.48, Brent crude (BNO) +3.7% to $127.20.  [View news story]
    No doubt Arab independent media has a better idea what is going on in their own backyard. The reason why so many Americans have no idea what is going on (practically any place in the world but especially) in the Middle East is because they rely on mainstream media.

    This is clearly domestic terrorism directed towards infrastructure and the implications are serious - an uprising in Saudi Arabia is 1) Long overdue considering the fact they are the most oppressive government in the middle east by far and have the biggest disparity of wealth 2) would have major supply disruptions.

    The market isn't stupid.
    Mar 1 04:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross's Dreadful Analysis Of The U.S. Economy's 'Wounded Heart' [View article]
    You completely mischaracterize what Gross says - for example he said "This “carry” constitutes the beating heart of our financial markets and ultimately our real economy as well, since profits on paper assets are inextricably linked to profits in the real economy." HE DID NOT SAY what you quoted : "Gross claims that "carry" is the beating heart of the real economy." He said linked - linked doesn't infer causation and he makes no inference to your "arrows."
    I also can't believe SA editors allow people to misquote and mischaracterize the way the high school student would attempt to write an essay on Nietzsche.
    The metaphors are not confusing in the least, and I suggest you read more fiction if these simple analogies are too hard for you to follow.
    You completely missed the point of what he was saying -
    You even wrote "I hope it is now evident that the real challenge faced by the US economy is not that monetary stimulus is wounding the "beating heart" the real economy through the reduction of the carry "
    When Gross clearly said : "Our global financial system at the zero-bound is beginning to resemble a leukemia patient with New Age chemotherapy, desperately attempting to cure an economy that requires structural as opposed to monetary solutions."
    Jun 11 06:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook (FB): Q4 EPS of $0.17 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $1.59B (+40% Y/Y) beats by $60M. Shares -7% AH. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR[View news story]
    Cost just also happen to be up 82% - this is most overrated, overbought firm.
    Jan 30 04:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Upcoming Crash Of Apple And Amazon [View article]
    Whats even more funny to me is how easy it is refute some of these points which as usual is not done among the typical apple ass-kissing comments by the pyschophants who have an emotional attachment to their stupid products instead of addressing their actual profitability. Apple actually doesn't spend a large amount of money on R&D compared to many large tech firms. Any price point argument should be argued (by the author) by projected sales and how it would impact the bottom line and then into whatever valuation metric you wanted use P/E or otherwise(which is notoriously unreliable by itself for tech companies.)

    The same applies to AMZN - the author is stating that AMZN's profitability relies largely upon their tax advantage and when curtailed, will lead to losses. All one needs to do is take a look at the income statement and see how those profit margins are being derived, whether there are non-recurring items and what the projected impact of an increase tax expense will be. I also consider this the burden of th author rather than just to declare that tax benefits are going to end and AMZN is done, son.

    If it makes you feel any better, the author does exactly what you did - referencing his past performance as if it is any indication of his ability to produce future results.

    Any one who thinks you should listen to them because they were right in the past is just as bad as anyone who thinks you shouldn't listen to someone else because they have been wrong in the past - two sides of the same coin of charlatanism.
    Sep 30 07:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Upcoming Crash Of Apple And Amazon [View article]
    That's a very unintelligent way of inviting me to prejudice the author based on prior writings instead of focusing on the article here, which you clearly have the inability to do.
    Sep 30 06:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P may have more to worry about than just the U.S. Senate investigating its credit downgrade decision. There's mounting evidence that the ratings agency leaked the pending action to a select group of banks and hedge funds prior to its public announcement, which is a clear violation of SEC rules.  [View news story]
    Whenever there are enough factors to create fog around the market, smart money stirs up the media and shorts the market, profiting from the sell-off and then snatching up what they sold at super low valuations. Meanwhile the idiot retail investor glued to CNBC gets whipsawed.

    The same game that's used to sell wars is what's used to sell stocks. The downgrade was just an excuse of the season. As if any one needed a rating agency to tell us how bad the debt situation is - books have been written about it for years already.
    Aug 9 07:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The bailout rejected, what's next for Cyprus? Open Europe suggests the EU will allow a few days for Cypriot MPs to get their minds right before the ECB thinks about cutting off funding for the country's banks (which would lead to their collapse). Or not. Reuters' Anatole Kaletsky notes the ECB needs two-thirds of its board to cut off ELA funding, and the Germans don't have the votes. "Time to get bullish ... German U-turn ahead!" [View news story]
    I actually heard that first in Cool Hand Luke.
    Mar 19 05:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Peak Social Media Stock [View article]
    Thank you for this voice of sanity.
    Jan 22 11:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Already up on the day, crude oil flies higher on a report of an attack and explosion on a Saudi pipeline. WTI crude (USO) +2.3% to $109.48, Brent crude (BNO) +3.7% to $127.20.  [View news story]
    This is what happened http://bit.ly/xjAy3t
    Mar 1 04:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Truth About Asset Allocation And Active Management [View article]
    Re: 5. As cited in David’s article, asset allocation is a determinant of variability. What you are describing is a completely different activity which is rebalancing. It also presupposes that the only way to rebalance is to sell positions which have grown and buy additional holdings which have underperformed. Nothing could be further than the truth. You can easily rebalance say, an equity allocation, by simply selling equities who’s growth prospects or intrinsic value estimates have altered. In conjunction with a better opportunity in the fixed income side of the portfolio, a rebalancing can occur. There exists much more potential for thoughtful rebalancing than simply selling your winners and buying back a losing asset class. It also presupposes that it was the asset class in general that contributed to the performance and not individual holdings which as stated, can be managed thoughtfully.

    Re: 6. This should be apparent to anyone who has any business investing. However I don’t understand your last sentence regarding deciding how often decisions need to be made. Periodic reviews are a traditional part of asset management, but the portfolio monitoring does not stop there. Active portfolio management entails responding to any developments identified, either by yourself or teams of analysts as time passes with respect to each holding. This is an extremely time consuming task (which is why I state “teams of analysts” who are consulted to get the best of their insight.) The portfolio manager must be ready to respond to these changes and reconcile them with their individual investment theses pertaining to each specific holding. In your portfolio of 25 stocks this is not an activity that occupies three hours after breakfast every day.

    Re: 7. The average management fee on a balanced portfolio should be in the neighborhood of 1%, 2% at the highest. If that is considered 50% of your return, then you obviously are getting a very poor level of performance that could be matched by bank CD. No asset manager that has survived decades of market turbulence made a reputation by delivering only twice their investment fees. As management fees are based on assets under management, they are aligned with the investors interests – increasing the principal of the portfolio and managing volatility.

    There is no basis for saying the money management industry predicates “fear” – this is just another specialized industry. Mechanics can be accused of holding you back from working on your car for “fear” of not knowing what you are doing and ruining something or hurting yourself. The fact is that investing can be quite complicated, especially if you are at a life stage where you have a specific determined level of income you are trying to generate, or some other goal you are trying to reach on a risk managed basis. No good investment advisors want their clients to fear anything, rather the desire is to EARN trust through prudent management and service delivery.

    You also have no standing to say the industry hides behind “jargon and numbers that misleading and deceptive.” This is one of the most regulated industries in the world and there are globally accepted, often mandated, performance reporting and disclosure requirements designed so that investors can make informed and prudent decisions.

    I’m sorry, but you are completely mistaken in your understanding of Beta.

    Beta is not the same thing as variance which is what you are identifying. Beta is a product of the correlation coefficient times [the variance of the stock/variance of the market]. It takes it to account the movement of the security with the market, and its directionality.

    The only thing I can agree with your writing, which again I am sorry to say reads more like conspiracy theory against an industry that you resent for some reason, is that investors should always think for themselves. This applies to all individuals employing the service of anyone to do anything. You should know, based on your stated experience, that in this business the investment advisors are (or rather should be) working at the behest of the clients in their comfort level and their understanding of their own investments. It is a relationship built on trust and understanding, not blind authority – and investors are plenty bold enough to understand this.
    Feb 21 04:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Price Of Gas Is Outrageous, And It Is Going To Go Even Higher [View article]
    The late Matt Simmons did excellent research on this issue over a decade ago and should be the first source to consult.

    The era of cheap, easy to obtain oil has long passed and it isn't limited to gasoline/energy by any means.

    Decades to come, this will seem like a memory of heaven.
    Feb 21 12:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "If the objectives of QEII were to raise interest rates, slow economic growth, encourage speculation, and eviscerate the standard of living of the average U.S. family, then it has been enormously successful," writes Van Hoisington, adding, "these results represent the Fed's impact on the economy, regardless of their claims to the contrary."  [View news story]
    Interesting this article was chosen for today's currents - it looks like it was published as a 4Q10 outlook.

    I also wish the paper would make a clearer attribution of the commodity price increases to QE2 instead of just stating they have "cleary" affected them. Particularly, now that we have geopolitical events increasing the price of oil and that food inflation began before the implementation of QE2, and may be attributable to central bank injections of capital around the globe.

    Perhaps I'm slower than most, but I would have liked to see more development in causation.
    Apr 8 06:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Positive sell-side commentary helps Groupon (GRPN +11.3%) remain sharply higher following its Q1 revenue beat, which featured Q/Q gross margin and take rate improvements. "Groupon's [daily deals] leadership position will yield a growing, albeit slow, business in 2014 and 2015," says Gene Munster, whose pre-earnings predictions (I, II) were off the mark for both Q4 and Q1. Strong mobile numbers are also encouraging bulls: 45% of Q1 North American transactions took place via a mobile device, up from less than 40% in Q4. The number of customers to have bought a Groupon in the trailing 12 months rose by 700K Q/Q to 41.7M. (transcript[View news story]
    How does this justify a 56% growth rate which is what is implied by consensus estimates???
    May 9 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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