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  • EU And U.S. Sanctions Drive Seadrill Down 19% And Exxon Out Of The Arctic [View article]

    I have a slightly different take on the two. NADL can afford to go "all in" with Rosneft/Russia. SDRL has to walk on egg shells. The EU can punish SDRL by interfering with new contracts within EU, if they do not believe SDRL is cooperating with sanctions. It is called arm twisting. Fortunately, it appears that Norway is not all that enthusiastic about enforcing sanctions.

    Although there will be short term pain and lower SDRL prices, the relationship with Russia is positive for the long term. Conditions (lower day rates, over capacity, lower oil prices, cuts in oil capex) are the more important factors for SDRL over longer term- not the sanctions.
    Sep 19 01:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Scotland 'Yes Or No' - Why And How You Need To Hedge The FTSE 100 / 250 And Gilts [View article]
    Vote results are a resounding "No." Personally, I think the "yes" side shot themselves in the foot by attacking "no" voters as traitors and all the intimidation that the "yes" side used. I think many of the undecided voters were closet "no" voters which made this harder to handicap. I am sure that many undecided voters also made up their mind for "no", because they did not like attempts at intimidation by "yes" voters. When people result to intimidation, it generally means they lack the ability to make a rational convincing argument.
    Sep 19 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Lessons From The Frontline [View article]

    You highlighted my biggest concern in buying SDRL: JF's failure with FRO and the possibility he will repeat with SDRL. So, I limited how much I bought. Even though I am underwater, I did not buy more with the tempting recent lower price.

    Over the next year, it may get worse for drillers and there may be more opportunities to buy SDRL at an even lower price. The share price has proven itself to be volatile. Obstacles remain. I see no reason to rush in now.
    Sep 18 07:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontline: Evaluating The Options To Avoid Bankruptcy [View article]

    If FRO is debt free, considering how much JF loves debt, how long do you think FRO would remain debt free? 5 minutes? 60 seconds?
    Sep 17 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q&A: Awilco Drilling Lost More Than 30%, What To Do Next? [View article]
    The sale of shares by insiders began the slide. Negative sentiment about drillers and lower oil prices added to that. But I agree with those who mentioned the main factor for the price drop as the Scottish independence vote and the uncertainty that suggests. I believe the pending vote is what pushed AWLCF so low and continued the slide.

    As I own AWLCF already at 18.58, I did not buy more yet. The price would have to fall more for me to add. If the vote results are "yes", we definitely enter a period of greater uncertainty and perhaps higher taxes that affect AWLCF. That itself could reduce the trading range for AWLCF and offer many more opportunities to buy for less.

    STO is a good example of a Norwegian oil company that trades for less than full value (in my opinion) for 2 reasons: higher taxes in Norway and partial government ownership.

    The potential of significantly higher taxes in the territorial North Sea waters of an independent Scotland "could" (notice I did not say definitely will) depress share prices of a company with 100% of their operations there.
    Sep 17 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Maximize Your Kinder Morgan Gains And Increase Your Income [View article]
    Dividends #1:

    I have considered all of this, but I have only 2 problems with it:

    1- The remote possibility that the deal does not happen. You can avoid this by waiting until the voting results are known.

    2- Why pay a higher price for both KMR and KMI now since both have been falling in price? I expected both prices to fall closer to the deal value and that has happened.
    Sep 16 04:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tag Oil: Cheapest Valuations Since 2009 [View article]

    I have not owned many stocks in the New Zealand and Australia region. But everyone I have owned was a loser. I think it has to do with bad management.
    Sep 16 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turn The Lose-Lose Economic War With Russia Into Trading Profits [View article]
    If Putin cuts off EU gas when Winter begins, what infrastructure does EU have immediately in place to replace that?
    Sep 16 10:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Should You Double Down Now And Go All In Close To Seadrill's 52-Week Low? [View article]

    Generally I agree with you about SDRL.

    But my biggest concern is that it is a JF company. Much of what you say about SDRL was said about FRO several years ago, and look where FRO is today. I would feel much more comfortable if JF was not involved.
    Sep 16 09:27 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Remain On Sidelines For Events To Unfold [View article]
    If you add to SDRL at $30, and later they cut the dividend 50%, you are still earning over 6% while all this recovers: sanctions and drillers. How much risk is that?
    Sep 15 03:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Dividend Prospects [View article]

    Your article demonstrates that for SDRL the situation is very fluid with lots of moving parts. I have read some articles that focus on one factor like XOM unable to perform on their contract in Russia with SDRL due to sanctions that fail to consider options by SDRL.
    Sep 15 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Dividend Prospects [View article]

    My opinion is the drop in AWLCF is due to the Scottish independence vote and the uncertainty of what that result could bring like added taxes on oil extraction and equipment.

    It did not help that downward momentum began with the big sale of insider shares and the general weakness in drillers.

    My view continues to be that AWLCF will continue falling until the results of the Scottish vote are known. If it is "yes", AWLCF could stay down for a time. If it is "no", AWLCF should rebound. What I have heard slightly favors a "no" vote, but really too close to call.
    Sep 15 02:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alerian Explains: The Kinder Family [View article]
    I have owned KMR since 2005- for over 9 years. I have been very satisfied with my investment. With all the criticism KM has received over the years, KM just keeps chugging onward and upward. I anticipate that I will continue to be happy with my investment in KMI.
    Sep 15 01:49 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Endeavour Mining: Could This Pink Sheet's Investors 'Strike Gold'? [View article]

    Thanks for article on EDVMF. I own it from the Avion acquisition. I am holding for a possible recovery of my Avion investment. I am not expecting miracles- but only a reduction of my paper loss.
    Sep 13 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Double-Digit Yields From Awilco Drilling Ltd. [View article]
    Just my opinion that AWLCF got hit with a triple whammy:

    First: The sale of shares by insiders. Possibly (?), they chose to sell now before the vote in Scotland anticipating drop in share price.

    Second: General decline in share prices for oil stocks- especially drillers.

    Third: Vote in Scotland. Uncertainty has taken down UK shares generally. Doing business in North Sea of Scotland probably means getting hit even worse. I actually think this vote situation is hurting AWLCF price more than anything else; but I admit I was slow to catch on myself.

    My own view is AWLCF may continue dropping in price until vote is settled. If vote is YES, price may go lower or stay down as the uncertainty will continue. If vote is NO, AWLCF price will likely begin to recover.

    I heard (news) that odds slightly favor NO vote, but really too close to call. Personally, I hope it is NO, so that uncertainty and disruption do not prevail.
    Sep 13 12:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment