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Chancer

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  • Alibaba Shares Are Relatively Cheap [View article]
    Chris:

    BABA is also suffering from a bad public image for the high percentage of counterfeit goods sold on their site. BABA has promised to address this problem for a long time. But it seems like empty words, because they fear their revenue would suffer by reducing sales of counterfeit goods. If they do not deal with the problem, it will continue to depress the share price.

    My own opinion is that BABA is deliberately not going to address the problem until they can replace any lost revenue with other revenue sources. However, lawsuits may force them to deal with this sooner.
    May 24, 2015. 04:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: The Current Yield Hypnosis [View article]
    Richard:

    Once Linn cuts or eliminates the distribution, their equity offerings will be much less popular, harder to sell, and greater dilution at lower prices.

    It is doubtful that Linn can repeat these small offerings for enough cash needed to make a major dent in their debt.
    May 24, 2015. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Linn Energy's Public Offering Is Troubling For Investors [View article]
    Chris:

    I think oil prices will revisit their lows in mid Summer and prices for oil stocks will fall again. Oil prices may then slowly recover from those lows.
    May 24, 2015. 04:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling: A Way To Arbitrage 2015 Oil Prices? [View article]
    Look at the backlog.

    Wilphoenix is contracted with Apache until 4th quarter of 2017 with an option to extend for 27 months.

    Yard maintenance is scheduled for 60 days in early 2016 from mid January until mid March. But that timing is subject to change.

    There is no reason to end the dividend. A temporary cut or suspension during 60 days of yard maintenance is a definite possibility.
    May 23, 2015. 11:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: The Public Offering Signals A Higher Chance Of A Future Distribution Cut [View article]
    Captain:

    I wish you and all of us longs the very best with that prediction of an increase of the distribution.

    But really? In your dreams.
    May 22, 2015. 03:51 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: The Public Offering Signals A Higher Chance Of A Future Distribution Cut [View article]
    Jdeboer87:

    Suggestion:

    Prepare for disappointment and a further price drop.

    My guess is that Linn maintains the distribution until September (3+ months) for the sake of appearances. It would look bad to cut the dividend after just selling more shares to shareholders expecting the dividend to continue as is. But I think Linn already made up their mind to cut. I actually believe Linn will more likely totally eliminate the dividend this time, end the suspense about further cuts, and save the cash for debt.
    May 22, 2015. 03:39 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Vail Resorts Inc. Face A Short-Term Drop In PPS? [View article]
    I was considering MTN until I remembered that there are claims that the planet is warming. If that is true (and I remain skeptical about global warming), the future of the snow business may not be that great.
    May 22, 2015. 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman updates list of hedge funds most-shorted stocks [View news story]
    Hedge funds lose money too.
    May 21, 2015. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: A House Of Pain [View article]
    One of the reasons I voted against the Berry deal was that I could not understand why Linn was so desperate to do the deal at any price. My own intuition was that Linn's internal analysis was that their future prospects were worse than they were telling shareholders. Linn continued to predict rosey scenarios.

    I have not wavered from the belief that Linn continues to hide from shareholders how bad they see their own condition. That for me is what explains Linn's actions in 2015. That is why I definitely expect Linn to either eliminate or cut (at least by 50%) the distribution again- probably by September.

    I do not trust this management. I think they are hiding information from shareholders.

    Nevertheless, I am still holding. Even if I eventually have to sell for a loss, I believe I can, in time, sell for a higher price than now. I also believe that Linn's price can go much lower from here giving me an opportunity to average down and wait for some eventual recovery. I expect this may take years to resolve.
    May 21, 2015. 10:01 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Very Solid Dividend Growth Investment: Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF [View article]
    Colorado:

    How about using SCHD for the cash position in the Schwab account, since the interest on Schwab's cash account is so low?

    When you place a stock order, and need cash to cover, sell some SCHD. You can add to SCHD on the days the market is down.
    May 20, 2015. 07:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Might Be A Good Time To Consider Linn Energy [View article]
    I believe the distribution will be either cut or totally eliminated. I believe that will be the 3rd cut in 12 months. I expect share price will go lower at that time. I would expect this in about 3 months, like possibly September.

    I believe Linn already plans this cut/elimination. But they have to make it look good for those who just bought the secondary by continuing dividend for about 3 months.
    May 20, 2015. 07:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy Plummets 12% On Secondary: Line Up To Buy LINE [View article]
    George:

    In my opinion, this secondary almost guarantees that Linn has already decided to cut or eliminate the dividend. Linn will probably delay that to make it look good for a couple of months- maybe in September.
    May 20, 2015. 02:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent court ruling could prove beneficial for MLP investors [View news story]
    I read before that this case amounts to very little for any individual shareholders, if anything. But the lawyers on both sides got rich and will continue to do so on cases like this.
    May 19, 2015. 08:58 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Don't Freak Out About The Secondary, Be Smart And Buy When Others Panic [View article]
    Averaging down is a winning strategy that I have used often.

    But it really depends on whether the stock goes up or down after you average down- just like when you first buy a stock.

    If it goes up above your average cost, you win. If it goes lower and stays down, you lose. Might go all the way down to bankruptcy or penny status.

    It is not an "always" anything.

    My own opinion is that if you are already underwater big, as many are in oil stocks, by averaging down, you hope to (1) make a profit, (2) break even, or (3) at least, reduce your loss.
    May 19, 2015. 03:28 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Don't Freak Out About The Secondary, Be Smart And Buy When Others Panic [View article]
    My guess is these additional shares guarantee another dividend cut or total elimination. I do not believe that Linn wants to pay dividends on these shares. To make it look good, Linn will probably wait 3 months before the cut or elimination- likely by September. Linn already decided, but will pretend "surprise." If that is not equal to a lie, I do not know what is.
    May 19, 2015. 03:19 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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