Chancer's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/57655/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/175521-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news?source=feed#comment-779927 779927
I had the same "other shoes to follow" thought.


On Nov 27 11:38 AM Old Trader wrote:

> I can't help but wonder if Dubai is just the first shoe. This news
> has overshadowed Japan's Finance Minister thinking of asking for
> CB intervention on behalf of the yen, and the fact Vietnam has devalued
> the dong.]]> Fri, 27 Nov 2009 16:21:54 -0500
I had the same "other shoes to follow" thought.


On Nov 27 11:38 AM Old Trader wrote:

> I can't help but wonder if Dubai is just the first shoe. This news
> has overshadowed Japan's Finance Minister thinking of asking for
> CB intervention on behalf of the yen, and the fact Vietnam has devalued
> the dong.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175519-the-next-crisis-spiralling-inflation-part-ii?source=feed#comment-779889 779889
I do believe we have more inflation than the government recognizes. But I am focused on when the Fed will raise interest rates. I do not believe they will until they recognize (admit to) inflation over 3%.

This means less likely to raise rates until after 2011. With high unemployment as far as the eye can see, and probably slower growth than Fed wants, their recognition of inflation and rate increases may not come for 3 to 5 years. The Fed is probably more inclined to put up with more inflation, maybe 5+%, before raising rates due to poor growth, and high unemployment.

When Fed finally raises rates, 3 to 5 years from now, the dollar will get some rally (possibly only temporary).

I am seeking some good forecasts on rate increases.]]> Fri, 27 Nov 2009 15:31:03 -0500
I do believe we have more inflation than the government recognizes. But I am focused on when the Fed will raise interest rates. I do not believe they will until they recognize (admit to) inflation over 3%.

This means less likely to raise rates until after 2011. With high unemployment as far as the eye can see, and probably slower growth than Fed wants, their recognition of inflation and rate increases may not come for 3 to 5 years. The Fed is probably more inclined to put up with more inflation, maybe 5+%, before raising rates due to poor growth, and high unemployment.

When Fed finally raises rates, 3 to 5 years from now, the dollar will get some rally (possibly only temporary).

I am seeking some good forecasts on rate increases.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175477-video-why-obamacare-will-be-a-budget-buster?source=feed#comment-779876 779876
1- European hospitals are built by government. Let's have the U.S. government pay fair market value for all the hospitals they want, and close all the rest. Americans would not be happy with that.

2- Doctors in Europe work for about $75,000 per year. Let's limit doctors income, cut their fees drastically (so there would be no millionaire doctors), or make all doctors government employees. There is no political will to do that. I heard the CEO of a non profit Medicare Advantage company state that if you are really serious (which libs are not) about controlling cost, you must cut doctor fees at least 22%.

3- European healthcare plans control cost by rationing. Let's do the same. When the budget is spent for healthcare each year, make everyone wait until January 1 of the next year to get more healthcare. Americans will not be happy with that; but may be getting it now.

If we are going to talk about comparing U.S. healthcare with Europe, put EVERYTHING on the table; including limiting malpractive awards and attorney fees, as many states already do for Workers Compensation.

Those who argue against the current U.S. system versus Europe are "cherry picking" what they want to compare, which is intellectually DISHONEST.]]> Fri, 27 Nov 2009 15:13:00 -0500
1- European hospitals are built by government. Let's have the U.S. government pay fair market value for all the hospitals they want, and close all the rest. Americans would not be happy with that.

2- Doctors in Europe work for about $75,000 per year. Let's limit doctors income, cut their fees drastically (so there would be no millionaire doctors), or make all doctors government employees. There is no political will to do that. I heard the CEO of a non profit Medicare Advantage company state that if you are really serious (which libs are not) about controlling cost, you must cut doctor fees at least 22%.

3- European healthcare plans control cost by rationing. Let's do the same. When the budget is spent for healthcare each year, make everyone wait until January 1 of the next year to get more healthcare. Americans will not be happy with that; but may be getting it now.

If we are going to talk about comparing U.S. healthcare with Europe, put EVERYTHING on the table; including limiting malpractive awards and attorney fees, as many states already do for Workers Compensation.

Those who argue against the current U.S. system versus Europe are "cherry picking" what they want to compare, which is intellectually DISHONEST.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175215-inflation-worries-here-s-what-we-can-learn-from-japan?source=feed#comment-777675 777675
After that, they cut package size to 12 for $1- a 20% cut.

But government says: there is no inflation.


On Nov 25 06:05 AM Davewmart wrote:

> Depressingly accurate. I think I will go and slit my wrists.
> Hey! There might be a play in razorblades!
> Things are looking up!
> Recovery is here, one industry at a time!]]> Wed, 25 Nov 2009 16:01:09 -0500
After that, they cut package size to 12 for $1- a 20% cut.

But government says: there is no inflation.


On Nov 25 06:05 AM Davewmart wrote:

> Depressingly accurate. I think I will go and slit my wrists.
> Hey! There might be a play in razorblades!
> Things are looking up!
> Recovery is here, one industry at a time!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175116-u-s-economic-recovery-and-the-housing-sector-mirage?source=feed#comment-777627 777627
My gut feeling is the good housing numbers now is demand fueled by temporary Fed loan support programs (buying mortgages) and the $8K tax credit ending 4/1/10. About the same time, a plunge in commercial prices may spook home buyers. Will housing fall of the cliff after April? Those shopping for a home may find better deals next Spring and Summer than now.

My big question is how fast will mortgage rates increase? Conventional wisdom says Fed will not raise for 1 year. With slow growth, high unemployment, and the interest cost of financing the deficit, my bet is Fed will keep rates low much longer than current forecasts. I believe they will resist the urge to increase rates unless inflation gets really bad.

My guess right now for the next 5 years is: slow growth (2-3%), unemployment of 50% to 2X what we had after previous recoveries (6-8%), interest rates about where they are (up to 1% higher), inflation higher (4-6%). (That is government inflation, not real; since I already believe the government's CPI inflation numbers are under stated).

What do you think?]]> Wed, 25 Nov 2009 15:35:26 -0500
My gut feeling is the good housing numbers now is demand fueled by temporary Fed loan support programs (buying mortgages) and the $8K tax credit ending 4/1/10. About the same time, a plunge in commercial prices may spook home buyers. Will housing fall of the cliff after April? Those shopping for a home may find better deals next Spring and Summer than now.

My big question is how fast will mortgage rates increase? Conventional wisdom says Fed will not raise for 1 year. With slow growth, high unemployment, and the interest cost of financing the deficit, my bet is Fed will keep rates low much longer than current forecasts. I believe they will resist the urge to increase rates unless inflation gets really bad.

My guess right now for the next 5 years is: slow growth (2-3%), unemployment of 50% to 2X what we had after previous recoveries (6-8%), interest rates about where they are (up to 1% higher), inflation higher (4-6%). (That is government inflation, not real; since I already believe the government's CPI inflation numbers are under stated).

What do you think?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175120-u-s-running-out-of-ways-to-cheaply-finance-debt?source=feed#comment-777596 777596
Then in a daring trick of accounting magic, the Treasury Dept. and the Fed agree to gradually write off this debt on both sets of books; Treasury writes off the payable, and Fed write off the receivable. "Gradually" writing off depends on how much they can get away with and how fast.

Isn't that better than selling to China, paying interest and redeeming with real money, and taxing Americans to pay for all this?

I do doubt this will happen. Instead, the government must convince China to refi and also present a plan for China's approval of how the debt will be repaid. It is kind of like submitting the USA balance sheet for credit approval by China. Kleinschmidt of the Toqueville funds said if the USA was an investment it would be a junk bond.

Raising income taxes will not work. So, the liberal Democrats will no doubt give us a VAT (value-added-tax) in Obama's second term.]]> Wed, 25 Nov 2009 15:18:33 -0500
Then in a daring trick of accounting magic, the Treasury Dept. and the Fed agree to gradually write off this debt on both sets of books; Treasury writes off the payable, and Fed write off the receivable. "Gradually" writing off depends on how much they can get away with and how fast.

Isn't that better than selling to China, paying interest and redeeming with real money, and taxing Americans to pay for all this?

I do doubt this will happen. Instead, the government must convince China to refi and also present a plan for China's approval of how the debt will be repaid. It is kind of like submitting the USA balance sheet for credit approval by China. Kleinschmidt of the Toqueville funds said if the USA was an investment it would be a junk bond.

Raising income taxes will not work. So, the liberal Democrats will no doubt give us a VAT (value-added-tax) in Obama's second term.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175160-with-housing-so-affordable-time-to-go-long-homebuilders?source=feed#comment-777559 777559
The housing bubble was built on demand by borrowers who could not afford the homes they bought; and they are not coming back. They are renters. Demand right now is supported by government programs. What will happen when the tax credit expires 4/30/2010? Will housing fall off a cliff? Will the commercial plunge predicted to begin in Q2 of 2010 scare home buyers? Buyers are rushing to get the $8,000 tax credit. They might save much more in reduced prices after the credit and federal loan support ends.]]> Wed, 25 Nov 2009 14:58:24 -0500
The housing bubble was built on demand by borrowers who could not afford the homes they bought; and they are not coming back. They are renters. Demand right now is supported by government programs. What will happen when the tax credit expires 4/30/2010? Will housing fall off a cliff? Will the commercial plunge predicted to begin in Q2 of 2010 scare home buyers? Buyers are rushing to get the $8,000 tax credit. They might save much more in reduced prices after the credit and federal loan support ends.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174768-great-basin-gold-a-prime-acquisition-candidate?source=feed#comment-773643 773643 NGD).]]> Mon, 23 Nov 2009 13:18:52 -0500 NGD).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174004-japan-s-not-out-of-the-woods-yet?source=feed#comment-765761 765761
Maybe, they can act like U. S. Federal Reserve buying T-bills from U.S. Treasury. Bank of Japan could begin buying government debt.

Then, they gradually write off the debt on both sets of books: government debt (payable) and Bank of Japan (receivable).

It is called "creative accounting" or "voodoo economics".]]> Wed, 18 Nov 2009 14:04:08 -0500
Maybe, they can act like U. S. Federal Reserve buying T-bills from U.S. Treasury. Bank of Japan could begin buying government debt.

Then, they gradually write off the debt on both sets of books: government debt (payable) and Bank of Japan (receivable).

It is called "creative accounting" or "voodoo economics".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172767-in-2010-it-ll-be-jobs-jobs-jobs?source=feed#comment-757524 757524
Can't they walk and chew gum at the same time?

Is healthcare buy itself more important then jobs and the entire economy?

It must be for Obama and the Democrats.]]> Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:17:20 -0500
Can't they walk and chew gum at the same time?

Is healthcare buy itself more important then jobs and the entire economy?

It must be for Obama and the Democrats.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172675-sturm-ruger-s-brief-burst-of-value?source=feed#comment-755754 755754 AND) Wesson.

It is Sturm, Ruger NOT Sturm & (AND) Ruger.]]> Wed, 11 Nov 2009 14:56:35 -0500 AND) Wesson.

It is Sturm, Ruger NOT Sturm & (AND) Ruger.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172529-too-big-to-exist-bill-would-impose-market-discipline?source=feed#comment-755749 755749
Simple common sense.

B of A can be broken up into 4 to 5 regional bank; etc., etc.

They did it with the phone company.

This saves us from another incompetent, expensive government regulatory bureaucracy to control too big to fail, which then becomes too incompetent to regulate.]]> Wed, 11 Nov 2009 14:52:48 -0500
Simple common sense.

B of A can be broken up into 4 to 5 regional bank; etc., etc.

They did it with the phone company.

This saves us from another incompetent, expensive government regulatory bureaucracy to control too big to fail, which then becomes too incompetent to regulate.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172020-global-markets-in-review-is-the-risk-trade-back-on?source=feed#comment-752932 752932
I believe they also understate inflation, which in my opinion is increasing now. Food package sizes are being reduced while the same price is charged for the previous larger package.

Utility prices are increasing. Services increase prices or reduce services while charging the old price. Medicare premiums are increasing 14.5% in January; but Social Security is not, because the Feds claim there is no inflation. So, what is the Medicare increase?


On Nov 08 03:43 PM nobby73 wrote:

> Remember, people have to have actively sought work, as an architect,
> in the previous four weeks to qualify as an unemployed architect.
> If people are aware there is simply no work in this field, they will
> either have not looked or will have sought other work.
>
> As the U6 measure has underemployment at 17%+, it stand to reason
> architects are either not seeking work or engaged in other part time
> jobs.]]> Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:36:47 -0500
I believe they also understate inflation, which in my opinion is increasing now. Food package sizes are being reduced while the same price is charged for the previous larger package.

Utility prices are increasing. Services increase prices or reduce services while charging the old price. Medicare premiums are increasing 14.5% in January; but Social Security is not, because the Feds claim there is no inflation. So, what is the Medicare increase?


On Nov 08 03:43 PM nobby73 wrote:

> Remember, people have to have actively sought work, as an architect,
> in the previous four weeks to qualify as an unemployed architect.
> If people are aware there is simply no work in this field, they will
> either have not looked or will have sought other work.
>
> As the U6 measure has underemployment at 17%+, it stand to reason
> architects are either not seeking work or engaged in other part time
> jobs.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172043-the-reluctant-bull-my-portfolio?source=feed#comment-752914 752914
I have held KMR for years. During Fall meltdown, I added (for income) KCAP, PFF, and TICC.

I also added to my FRO holding- which disappointed; and IRE, which suspended dividends, but price has gone up nicely.

I would like to know what you think of:

DDI (industrial)
DKA (oil)
CGW (water)
DGG (telecom)]]> Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:24:16 -0500
I have held KMR for years. During Fall meltdown, I added (for income) KCAP, PFF, and TICC.

I also added to my FRO holding- which disappointed; and IRE, which suspended dividends, but price has gone up nicely.

I would like to know what you think of:

DDI (industrial)
DKA (oil)
CGW (water)
DGG (telecom)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172057-the-glide-path-option?source=feed#comment-752889 752889
I believe the Obama liberal Democrats plan to deal with this (in Obama's second term) is a VAT (value-added-tax) which can accumulate to any amount as an increase in the cost of purchases (goods only or both goods and services).

The liberals can reduce the deficit and have lots more money to pay for even more socialist programs and gain even greater control of the economy and all citizens. This will drive up the cost of living with a major decrease in American living standards, reduce freedom, and make us all wards of the state (Federal government).

They will look to Europe for models for their policy agenda. In Denmark a gasoline car has a 25% sales tax and a 180% environmental tax. A $20,000 gas powered car costs $70,000. Denmark used this to steer buyers away from gas cars to electric cars; but they confessed the real reason was they wanted the tax money.]]> Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:09:51 -0500
I believe the Obama liberal Democrats plan to deal with this (in Obama's second term) is a VAT (value-added-tax) which can accumulate to any amount as an increase in the cost of purchases (goods only or both goods and services).

The liberals can reduce the deficit and have lots more money to pay for even more socialist programs and gain even greater control of the economy and all citizens. This will drive up the cost of living with a major decrease in American living standards, reduce freedom, and make us all wards of the state (Federal government).

They will look to Europe for models for their policy agenda. In Denmark a gasoline car has a 25% sales tax and a 180% environmental tax. A $20,000 gas powered car costs $70,000. Denmark used this to steer buyers away from gas cars to electric cars; but they confessed the real reason was they wanted the tax money.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172152-u-s-healthcare-legislation-investment-impact?source=feed#comment-752827 752827
It is a fact (by polls) that those who can afford healthcare, but do not want to spend "their own money" for it, are willing to spend only $100 to $200 per month (unrealistic).


On Nov 09 02:45 PM zagrebzagreb wrote:

> We all due respect, I find it absurd that the author does not account
> for the vast increase in market that most all device manufacturers,
> pharma corporations, etc will witness: More people covered, more
> healthcare coverage, more money spent on the industry...
>
> Currently the budget office is estimating roughly $120 billion a
> year in added expenditures. That's around $1,000 per household. Any
> other industry would be jumping for joy, but healthcare is next to
> the energy industry when it comes to playing nice with government
> and the public... ANYTHING that restricts freedom is greeted negatively,
> never mind the necesity of it.
>
> Additionally, if you don't think taxes on devices will simply be
> past along to the patient / insurer you haven't been paying attention
> to business in America. Companies will not lower margins; they will
> not absorb taxes.
>
> Just my opinion, but I work for a device manufacturer and help set
> pricing and deal with insurance reimbursement issues everyday.]]> Mon, 09 Nov 2009 15:31:51 -0500
It is a fact (by polls) that those who can afford healthcare, but do not want to spend "their own money" for it, are willing to spend only $100 to $200 per month (unrealistic).


On Nov 09 02:45 PM zagrebzagreb wrote:

> We all due respect, I find it absurd that the author does not account
> for the vast increase in market that most all device manufacturers,
> pharma corporations, etc will witness: More people covered, more
> healthcare coverage, more money spent on the industry...
>
> Currently the budget office is estimating roughly $120 billion a
> year in added expenditures. That's around $1,000 per household. Any
> other industry would be jumping for joy, but healthcare is next to
> the energy industry when it comes to playing nice with government
> and the public... ANYTHING that restricts freedom is greeted negatively,
> never mind the necesity of it.
>
> Additionally, if you don't think taxes on devices will simply be
> past along to the patient / insurer you haven't been paying attention
> to business in America. Companies will not lower margins; they will
> not absorb taxes.
>
> Just my opinion, but I work for a device manufacturer and help set
> pricing and deal with insurance reimbursement issues everyday.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171733-are-we-becoming-a-nation-of-renters-investing-for-the-new-housing-dynamic?source=feed#comment-749277 749277
The way there will be a value-added-tax in Obama's second term (if re-elected) which will cause a huge increase in the cost of living, decrease living standards, and stop Americans from saving or accumulating wealth; causing more and morer people to live paycheck to paycheck and to become more dependent on handout from a socialist liberal Democrat government.]]> Fri, 06 Nov 2009 20:50:43 -0500
The way there will be a value-added-tax in Obama's second term (if re-elected) which will cause a huge increase in the cost of living, decrease living standards, and stop Americans from saving or accumulating wealth; causing more and morer people to live paycheck to paycheck and to become more dependent on handout from a socialist liberal Democrat government.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171152-the-10-worst-mining-jurisdictions-in-the-world?source=feed#comment-746762 746762
It confirms what I have said in several comments.]]> Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:55:42 -0500
It confirms what I have said in several comments.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171083-four-bargains-in-u-s-integrated-oil-stocks?source=feed#comment-746690 746690 Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:18:49 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/170866-were-paying-for-health-reform-with-another-alternative-minimum-tax?source=feed#comment-744829 744829
By all accounting standards that would be considered fraudulent.

It also guarantees that the second 10 year decade will be revenue negative contributing to the deficit.

Of course, this assumes that you believe the Federal government's ability to be even close on financial estimates, budgets, revenue and cost projections. When have they ever? The track record predicts otherwise.]]> Wed, 04 Nov 2009 15:45:42 -0500
By all accounting standards that would be considered fraudulent.

It also guarantees that the second 10 year decade will be revenue negative contributing to the deficit.

Of course, this assumes that you believe the Federal government's ability to be even close on financial estimates, budgets, revenue and cost projections. When have they ever? The track record predicts otherwise.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171051-u-s-in-worse-shape-than-japan-was?source=feed#comment-744805 744805
Is the USA heading to same?]]> Wed, 04 Nov 2009 15:35:04 -0500
Is the USA heading to same?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170762-yes-the-house-health-bill-costs-more-than-1-2-trillion?source=feed#comment-742632 742632
Obama and the liberal Democrats may make a huge "profit" (oh, that dirty 5-letter word) to pay for other socialist programs.

If only 2 million sign up, it will be so embarrassing that they might have to go back and change the program to include free healthcare for 12 million illegals.]]> Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:24:12 -0500
Obama and the liberal Democrats may make a huge "profit" (oh, that dirty 5-letter word) to pay for other socialist programs.

If only 2 million sign up, it will be so embarrassing that they might have to go back and change the program to include free healthcare for 12 million illegals.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170499-lithium-bolivia-wants-partners-not-pillagers?source=feed#comment-741016 741016
If you retire in the USA, and:

Your Social Security pays $2,000 per month.

Your Medicare costs $1,000 per month.

Your real estate property taxes are $10,000 per year.

Your electric bill is $1,000 per month.

Your water bill is $200 per month.

A loaf of bread costs $10.

A gallon of gas costs $20.

You can move to Bolivia and get all those things cheap: groceries, housing, utilities, healthcare, and taxes.

And if you have to get 24 hour nursing care or move into a nursing home, that is cheap too.]]> Mon, 02 Nov 2009 16:13:25 -0500
If you retire in the USA, and:

Your Social Security pays $2,000 per month.

Your Medicare costs $1,000 per month.

Your real estate property taxes are $10,000 per year.

Your electric bill is $1,000 per month.

Your water bill is $200 per month.

A loaf of bread costs $10.

A gallon of gas costs $20.

You can move to Bolivia and get all those things cheap: groceries, housing, utilities, healthcare, and taxes.

And if you have to get 24 hour nursing care or move into a nursing home, that is cheap too.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170401-catching-argentinian-disease?source=feed#comment-740982 740982
I am convinced he will NOT raise INCOME taxes on the middle class, because the Democrats will lose power with a middle class revolt.

They cannot get enough in tax revenue from raising taxes on the wealthy.

What I believe Obama and the Democrats will do is give us a value-added-tax (like Europe). This may begin low; and later be increased. It may begin with products only, exempting food, services, drugs; and later be increased and cover more up to 100% of all purchases.

This is a easily hidden tax. Politicians can lie about the amount and affect. It will be a huge tax revenue gain for socialist liberals and central planners- a dream tax for socialists. Nancy Pelosi said we need a VAT to level the playing field with Europe. That means raise our taxes and decrease our standard of living to be more equal with Europe; because liberals believe it is just so unfair that Americans should do better then Europeans.

The VAT tax will harm economic growth, job growth, savings, and cause a huge decline in American living standards. Americans will become a nation of renters and public transportation commuters. Home and car ownership will be rare. ]]> Mon, 02 Nov 2009 16:05:37 -0500
I am convinced he will NOT raise INCOME taxes on the middle class, because the Democrats will lose power with a middle class revolt.

They cannot get enough in tax revenue from raising taxes on the wealthy.

What I believe Obama and the Democrats will do is give us a value-added-tax (like Europe). This may begin low; and later be increased. It may begin with products only, exempting food, services, drugs; and later be increased and cover more up to 100% of all purchases.

This is a easily hidden tax. Politicians can lie about the amount and affect. It will be a huge tax revenue gain for socialist liberals and central planners- a dream tax for socialists. Nancy Pelosi said we need a VAT to level the playing field with Europe. That means raise our taxes and decrease our standard of living to be more equal with Europe; because liberals believe it is just so unfair that Americans should do better then Europeans.

The VAT tax will harm economic growth, job growth, savings, and cause a huge decline in American living standards. Americans will become a nation of renters and public transportation commuters. Home and car ownership will be rare. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170499-lithium-bolivia-wants-partners-not-pillagers?source=feed#comment-740941 740941
Do foreign companies want to be partners with the Bolivian socialist government?

Do companies want to manufacture batteries and autos in Bolivia, and have export transportation shut down for many weeks?

That's what happens when Bolivia has a nationwide transportation strike. They block all the roads. The government does nothing to keep the roads open.

Bolivia has no ocean port and no through railway. Export transportation moves by truck.

I predict that Bolivia's lithium will remain in the ground. Foreign companies may do a little R & D and "explore" Bolivian opportunities. But in the end, Major foreign companies will not remain in any long term deals with Bolivia.]]> Mon, 02 Nov 2009 15:47:41 -0500
Do foreign companies want to be partners with the Bolivian socialist government?

Do companies want to manufacture batteries and autos in Bolivia, and have export transportation shut down for many weeks?

That's what happens when Bolivia has a nationwide transportation strike. They block all the roads. The government does nothing to keep the roads open.

Bolivia has no ocean port and no through railway. Export transportation moves by truck.

I predict that Bolivia's lithium will remain in the ground. Foreign companies may do a little R & D and "explore" Bolivian opportunities. But in the end, Major foreign companies will not remain in any long term deals with Bolivia.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170431-china-in-a-bubble?source=feed#comment-740923 740923
China has the money to deal with all of the above.]]> Mon, 02 Nov 2009 15:36:16 -0500
China has the money to deal with all of the above.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170475-gold-is-not-in-a-bull-market?source=feed#comment-740881 740881 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 15:12:45 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/170475-gold-is-not-in-a-bull-market?source=feed#comment-740880 740880

On Nov 02 03:08 PM Chancer wrote:

> If you believe there is no inlfation, you have to believe the U.S.
> government?
>
> Do you believe the U.S. government?
>
> I believe the low (government) inflation numbers are tainted by the
> drop in both oil prices and housing prices.
>
> But how about food prices? How about utility prices? How about the
> price of about everything else we buy?
>
> Either the price is increasing or "they" are down sizing packages
> and services and selling for old price.]]> Mon, 02 Nov 2009 15:12:45 -0500

On Nov 02 03:08 PM Chancer wrote:

> If you believe there is no inlfation, you have to believe the U.S.
> government?
>
> Do you believe the U.S. government?
>
> I believe the low (government) inflation numbers are tainted by the
> drop in both oil prices and housing prices.
>
> But how about food prices? How about utility prices? How about the
> price of about everything else we buy?
>
> Either the price is increasing or "they" are down sizing packages
> and services and selling for old price.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170475-gold-is-not-in-a-bull-market?source=feed#comment-740872 740872
Do you believe the U.S. government?

I believe the low (government) inflation numbers are tainted by the drop in both oil prices and housing prices.

But how about food prices? How about utility prices? How about the price of about everything else we buy?

Either the price is increasing or "they" are down sizing packages and services and selling for old price.]]> Mon, 02 Nov 2009 15:08:04 -0500
Do you believe the U.S. government?

I believe the low (government) inflation numbers are tainted by the drop in both oil prices and housing prices.

But how about food prices? How about utility prices? How about the price of about everything else we buy?

Either the price is increasing or "they" are down sizing packages and services and selling for old price.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170397-cost-of-jobs-saved-or-created?source=feed#comment-740850 740850
You cannot trust the government's numbers.

The real unemployment number is 20%.

The 3% GDP growth is government jobs plus car sales and home sales that were pushed backward due to cash for clunkers and housing credit. Private business not participating in growth.

Bill Gross said the "new normal" after the recovery is permanent unemployment of 8%- double what it was before recession.]]> Mon, 02 Nov 2009 14:54:00 -0500
You cannot trust the government's numbers.

The real unemployment number is 20%.

The 3% GDP growth is government jobs plus car sales and home sales that were pushed backward due to cash for clunkers and housing credit. Private business not participating in growth.

Bill Gross said the "new normal" after the recovery is permanent unemployment of 8%- double what it was before recession.]]>