Chancer

U.S. Economic Recovery and the Housing Sector Mirage

Jeff:

My gut feeling is the good housing numbers now is demand fueled by temporary Fed loan support programs (buying mortgages) and the $8K tax credit ending 4/1/10. About the same time, a plunge in commercial prices may spook home buyers. Will housing fall of the cliff after April? Those shopping for a home may find better deals next Spring and Summer than now.

My big question is how fast will mortgage rates increase? Conventional wisdom says Fed will not raise for 1 year. With slow growth, high unemployment, and the interest cost of financing the deficit, my bet is Fed will keep rates low much longer than current forecasts. I believe they will resist the urge to increase rates unless inflation gets really bad.

My guess right now for the next 5 years is: slow growth (2-3%), unemployment of 50% to 2X what we had after previous recoveries (6-8%), interest rates about where they are (up to 1% higher), inflation higher (4-6%). (That is government inflation, not real; since I already believe the government's CPI inflation numbers are under stated).

What do you think?

Screening for High Yield ETFs in an Uptrend

Would you have a list of high yielding closed end funds?

Screening for High Yield ETFs in an Uptrend

Thanks for list. Good to find in one place.

I bought PFF last fall during declines. Wish I had bought more at that low price.

Bogle: Investors 'Getting Killed' in ETFs

Could it be that the real conclusion here is that "average" investors picking ETFs (and timing when to buy and sell) do worse than similar "average" investments in mutual funds managed be professional managers?

The point is "average" not anecdotal evidence of "exceptional" investors in ETFs.

I really don't find that argument difficult to grasp at all.