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tothman

tothman
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  • CA panel deems Sovaldi a "low value" treatment [View news story]
    I'm not sure if I would apply the term "low value" to a treatment that could potentially eradicate the Hep C virus from the planet...
    Mar 12 01:31 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Completes Financing Deal [View article]
    Why do you believe that Contrave will follow the same sales ramp as Qsymia and Belviq? Have you conducted a study to determine whether the presence or absence of CVOT data is in any way influencing doctor's prescribing patterns? Do you know what an SPA agreement is, and how to calculate the time value of money? Do you believe that OREX will continue to trade at a 50-70% discount to VVUS and ARNA? How about writing something meaningful instead of a Finance 101 note on how investors use convertible bonds.
    Dec 10 04:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday's Small Cap Biopharma Catalyst Trade And Speculation Investment List [View article]
    Would you be willing to justify your comment that ACAD shares are overvalued here? Have you done any work on the Parkinson's psychosis market or a comp analysis of companies with positive Phase III trial results, particularly those developing drugs for CNS disorders where getting a drug to cross the blood-brain barrier and then work effectively without untoward side effects is extremely difficult? Or are you merely suggesting that a 200% move is a really big move and that the stock must be overvalued after a move like that? I'm getting tired of people writing articles on here to express an opinion that is not supported by any real analysis.
    Nov 30 10:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lucrative Opportunities In Amarin's Options Market [View article]
    I was actually buying and selling in-the-money calls one month at a time when I noticed the liquidity and spread issues. As an example, when I went to sell the Nov 9s with the stock trading at $11.20 a week before expiration, the spread was $2.10-$2.60. My order was one of two completed that day for the Nov 9s and it hadn't traded at all when I put them up for sale. I had to work the traders all day to get them sold at $2.25. I was able to buy the Dec 13s a little easier, but then again I was following the volume on that trade. I've found it tougher than other biotech names I trade, which surprised me given the open interest, daily volume, and the beta. But like I said, it has been a great strategy to date and I tip my hat to you...take advantage of volatility in the options when the stock is fairly range-bound.
    Nov 27 02:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lucrative Opportunities In Amarin's Options Market [View article]
    Great strategy with the stock stagnating here because of lack of NCE determination, but I think you'd be kicking yourself to have written Dec 12 covered calls if the NCE designation is granted in December, ahead of expiration. Also, having traded some calls in this name myself, you failed to mention that, despite some impressive open interest, these options are fairly illiquid and the spreads are brutal.
    Nov 26 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: Limited Downside With Significant Upside [View article]
    I would love to know how your valuation analyses differ based on 3- or 5-yr exclusivity. Since this status is secondary to AMRN's IP portfolio, you appear to be suggesting that: 1) some other competitor will prove these patents invalid, launch a similar, and negatively impact Vascepa sales at Year 3 under no NCE status and not until Year 5 with NCE status, or; 2) you are essentially making up the $2 per share valuation difference because that is your personal view of what NCE status is worth, or; 3) some other scenario that is less obvious to me. Once again, someone has written an AMRN valuation article without explicit details on just how they value NCE status. Would you care to elaborate?
    Nov 16 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Latest On Amarin - How Will The Investment Pay Off? [View article]
    Nice job on the article. As clear and concise an update as any I've read. Although as a former sellside analyst I might take offense to the "catch my drift" to which you eluded. The one factor that I have yet to hear anyone describe, however, is just what the value of NCE status is. You mentioned it may not be important in the long run but it is important to short-term valuation. Why? And by how much? As near as I can tell, NCE exclusivity is basically a second line of defense in case any patents are proven to be invalid. And realistically there is only a two yr benefit conveyed over and above the 3 yrs granted to the molecule without NCE. How much could that possibly be worth when valuing the company? I realize that the investment world is all wrapped up in this FDA decision, but I suppose I view it more like AMRN management does...as an informational overhang more than a valuation overhang. Everyone would just like to know where Vascepa stands, including potential M&A parties. Sure, the stock could take a hit if the status isn't granted, but therein lies the investment opportunity inherent in investment decisions guided more by emotion and less by fundamental analysis. Keep writing, and I'll keep reading!
    Nov 13 01:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus Is Cheaper Than Arena [View article]
    On the contrary, I would consider the Light study interim analysis, which could be divulged late 2Q/early 3Q next year, as a major catalyst. I would also argue that the 70% valuation haircut OREX maintains relative to VVUS is overdone given Contrave's predicted 1-year time lag relative to ARNA and VVUS compounds, it's potential for a superior on-label safety profile, the massive patient-years of experience docs have with its active ingredients, and the likelihood of a successful Light study. With this study strongly configured to win (49 MACE events for Contrave and 38 for placebo is still a statistical victory), and no CV signal ever seen in the naltrexone or buproprion databases, my view is that the valuation disparity between OREX and ARNA/VVUS diminishes substantially over the next 12 months, even if most of this disparity is erased by positive Light study interim analyses. Additionally, unless one can somehow tease out the factors leading to slow uptake of Qsymia and Belviq in the newly rejuvenated obesity marketplace...and thus rule out trepidation related to potential CV risk in the absence of cardiovascular outcome data, I'm not sure if I believe that Contrave should be viewed as likely to follow a similarly-shaped sales launch curve.
    Sep 15 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus Is Cheaper Than Arena [View article]
    You mention steering clear of OREX, an obesity company with a market cap of $550M, 30% of that of VVUS....at least until the Light study interim data is available in mid-13....and if the light study works, the stock gaps up dramatically, and investors completely miss the big move. Wow. Thanks for the analysis. How about taking a more in-depth look at the risk/reward of investing in OREX ahead of the interim results rather than stating the obvious? Oh, and think about the fact that all three obesity companies will have to run CVOTs....OREX could have CV risk data on its label in 2014 when marketing Contrave to a physician and patient population that has been highly speculative of heart issues associated with historical obesity meds, well ahead of the ARNA and VVUS drugs. I hope you factored this into your overall market estimates...
    Sep 14 03:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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