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marketwatcher23

marketwatcher23
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  • Junk Bond Funds And Rising Interest Rates: Fact Or Fiction? [View article]
    First off I really appreciate the article and throwing my comment in there. To clarify my viewpoint and what I think is going to happen, for whatever it's worth...here it is.

    Notice I said the fed has exited stimulus (QE) and warned about reaching for yield. I did not say the fed will be raising rates. I don't think they will. Maybe on the short end they will try to nudge them up but especially on the ling end of the curve I just see rates continuing to flatten. So I don't see high yield blowing up because of rising rates. I see it blowing up because of deflationary forces in the bond market causing people to really start taking a close look at the ability of the issuer to make good (ie high yield energy). As liquidity continues to evaporate, financing will become much more difficult and the market will continue to turn on many speculative high yielders.

    This should send money out of these sectors and into investment grade muni's, corporates and especially treasuries and so those yields will continue to drop. It will also send money into equities. Especially companies who pay dividends, but again, even the equity dividends will be under the microscope and some will be spared and some punished.

    I don't see any sort of typical economic cycle playing out where the fed raises rates as we have seen in the past. The fed knows they can't do it and the market knows they can't do it. The 30yr UST at 3% looks like a big juicy steak. Especially if you are in Japan or Europe.
    Dec 22, 2014. 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Floating Rate Loans CEFs? [View article]
    The fed may raise rates next year but yields will continue to go down on the long end. Stay long the 30 year, it will continue to be the most profitable part of credit.
    Dec 22, 2014. 12:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Has QE3 Really Come To An End? [View article]
    You have to do your own homework on this but your numbers are nowhere close to accurate. I just googled this, it's from last year but there are plenty of places to get the info...

    http://onforb.es/1zOmgOC

    I never said there was a problem with it. The fed owns most of the bond market and left some scraps for the banks who need UST's as collateral. That should ensure a constant bid under treasuries which should continue to flatten the yield curve and keep a bid under stocks and bonds. Rejoice, it's all good.
    Dec 22, 2014. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Central Banks Can't Set Permanent Long-Term Expectations [View article]
    The fed owns the long end of the bond market and left a few scraps over for the banks that desperately need UST's for collateral. They set expectations that demand for UST's will continue to overwhelm supply and keep yields going down.
    Dec 22, 2014. 07:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has QE3 Really Come To An End? [View article]
    The Fed owns 46% of every single piece of US paper dated 10 years or over at this point
    Dec 21, 2014. 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russian Roulette: Taxpayers Could Be On The Hook For Trillions In Oil Derivatives [View article]
    Exactly, they would only be borrowing if they had to pay it back. Nice catch.
    Dec 21, 2014. 10:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Russian Roulette: Taxpayers Could Be On The Hook For Trillions In Oil Derivatives [View article]
    psst....2008 (it happened bigtime) but don't worry it's all good from here. I'm not even being sarcastic. The fed actually figured it out. The taxpayer/backstop is just like a Plan D
    Dec 21, 2014. 10:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Doesn't Care At All What The FOMC Says [View article]
    Go back to the early 1980's. If you have been invested in say the S&P what is your average rate of return? Is it positive or negative? Bottom line if you bought and held stocks and bonds for the last 30 years you have made money on both.

    If you just got into stocks in 2000 you have had a rough go of it. It depends what you bought and if you were able to ride it out.
    Dec 21, 2014. 06:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russian Roulette: Taxpayers Could Be On The Hook For Trillions In Oil Derivatives [View article]
    Yeah I don't know their overall derivative exposure to oil so the author may be incorrect. The point is whether it's oil or something else, both parties, whose largest donors are the banks, just stuck it in the bill that if the banks croak on their derivatives the taxpayers bail them out.

    Now if those same taxpayers pensions (which I have issues with as well) get into trouble, the politicians are not so forgiving...

    "The new spending bill contains a measure that would allow (for the very first time) pension benefits of current retirees to be severely cut."

    http://bit.ly/1za3puy
    Dec 21, 2014. 06:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Doesn't Care At All What The FOMC Says [View article]
    credit will separate. Treasuries will continue to rally along with stocks as they have for decades now. Other forms of credit will not be sol lucky. Capital will flow out of them and into SPY and TLT
    Dec 21, 2014. 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russian Roulette: Taxpayers Could Be On The Hook For Trillions In Oil Derivatives [View article]
    Don't forget that the Republicans all voted for this. Both parties took their marching orders from Jamie Dimon and the squid.
    Dec 21, 2014. 01:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Floating Rate Loans CEFs? [View article]
    I owned some of these in that period ( I forget exactly when) treasury yields were rising but the banks were rigging LIBOR so these funds were a giant dud. They seem like a good concept except it just never works.
    Dec 21, 2014. 12:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russian Roulette: Taxpayers Could Be On The Hook For Trillions In Oil Derivatives [View article]
    As a proud American I have major issues with this article. Democrats and Republicans came together with the spending bill and both parties agreed that it is my patriotic responsibility as a taxpayer to allow the banks to gamble with my deposits and reap the benefits. As well as pay me 0% interest on said deposits while charging me 18% interest on my credit card. Should they gamble and lose my deposits it again is my patriotic duty to bail the banks out with every last dollar I have so they can keep their bonus structure.

    The key is to make sure I always have a beer and there is always a football game on that I can watch while following the kardashians on twitter
    Dec 21, 2014. 12:06 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has QE3 Really Come To An End? [View article]
    How much of the bond market does the fed now own? Especially out on the long end?
    Dec 21, 2014. 07:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has QE3 Really Come To An End? [View article]
    Don't worry about how Robert. Just know there is no market, there is only the BernakYellen. The fed now owns the bond market and they are the largest player in the stock market. It's a wonderful thing as we should enjoy gains every year from here on out. Don't ask why/how just bow down and thank your monetary overlords.
    Dec 20, 2014. 04:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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