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marketwatcher23

marketwatcher23
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  • Silver Is Shaping Up To Be The Best Precious Metal Play Of The Decade [View article]
    Caiman I can't reconcile your view on silver vs the dollar. I know you said the USD may be due for a pullback, but what is your decade view on the USD? If you think it's higher, does that not mitigate any potential rise in silver?
    May 26, 2015. 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold At An Inflection Point But Should Still Move Higher [View article]
    So when they start selling, central banks won't step in and buy, like they already are?
    May 25, 2015. 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Let A Few Bad Apples Spoil This New REIT [View article]
    Full disclosure, I am local to their BD and witnessed firsthand many people who assumed they owned a reit priced at $10 wake up and see it priced at $3 and could not get their money out. This was after their muni bond debacle. So I admit my perspective has been shaped by that. Also, being local, I have had some encounters with their sales team over the years. Scary is an understatement.
    May 25, 2015. 07:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold At An Inflection Point But Should Still Move Higher [View article]
    You are not American? As an American I assumed everyone was American :). Well, enjoy. I will have a beer and burger for you.
    May 25, 2015. 07:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold At An Inflection Point But Should Still Move Higher [View article]
    You know I used to believe that and a part of me always will. I have started to conclude though that stocks, going forward, are the new physical gold. The fed won't sell and does not need to. Barring a currency collapse, which despite many on here believing is imminent, it's not. So it seems like it's in the fed's interest to sell. Just starve everyone else of supply and continuing to force the market higher by doing so.

    Impressive that you are on here fielding questions at 7:15am on a holiday. You are one dude that cares about his craft. Seriously impressive.
    May 25, 2015. 07:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Let A Few Bad Apples Spoil This New REIT [View article]
    I am amazed that someone is looking favorably on a David Lerner "product" on this site. The "products" that come out of that shop look awful even in comparison to what I am able to produce after my third cup of coffee on Monday morning.

    Then again, caveat emptor. There is enough info out there on that "company" and it's "management team" for anyone interested. I honestly thing the biggest problem the regulators are having is knowing that there are billions invested in this hot garbage and if they start busting these firms up, not only will it cause a panic when the investors realize they have a fraction of what they invested, and it's illiquid, but everyone will turn right towards those same regulators and start asking why they did not catch this sooner.
    May 25, 2015. 07:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold At An Inflection Point But Should Still Move Higher [View article]
    The most astonishing thing about the current environment is that the fed has been able to take any/all alternatives to SPY and make them dead money. If you trade, you can probably make money trading gold back and forth from $1,250 to $1,200. If you are a bond trader you can probably trade the 10yr back and forth from 2% to 2.25%. But as an investor, bonds and gold/commodities are dead asset classes. The Bernakyellen has done a magnificent job of making sure that there is no alternative to stocks. That was always the plan and it is working great.
    May 25, 2015. 07:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retiring In A Thunderstorm [View article]
    This is probably the best time to retire since 1980 when the market carried you for 20 years. The idea that the fed would/could normalize rates is absurd. They do have to talk about the possibility in order to keep people from completely piling into risk assets. The rate environment we are in is permanent (barring maybe one symbolic hike in the not to distant future). Volatility will remain low and risk assets will continued to be bid up. Commodity inflation is now dead and buried and the USD is strong. The fed is using the market as a wealth effect and will continue to do so. We probably have another decade of this at least. Enjoy the ride.
    May 25, 2015. 07:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are You Betting On The Fed? Allocate According To The 'Fundamentals' And 'Technicals' Instead [View article]
    I think it's realistic to expect a 3-4% dip before the next 10% run up. Buckle your seatbelts.
    May 22, 2015. 08:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Bulls Are Back In Control [View article]
    I am sticking with the ECB knowing that when they announced QE, everyone else would front run them or not sell. So they needed to unleash a whoopin on some people to loosen things up. It went perfectly. China just makes no sense to me.

    The problem with when ZH used to post financial articles is they would take both sides of a debate (hyperinflation/deflation for instance) and post articles backing both sides. Then say "as presented here and here" with articles to whichever side temporarily was playing out.

    Their original claim that it is flow that matters and not stock has been completely debunked. Basically from their founding premise, and every day since, they have been wrong. The only intelligent move they made was switching to click bait doom porn.
    May 20, 2015. 06:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Bulls Are Back In Control [View article]
    Fish, did you read that on ZH? Because they are 100% wrong, as usual. It honestly is sad how bad that sites analysis has become since they made a full turn towards constant infowars/drudge.

    It was Draghi and for the reasons stated. It sure makes a lot more sense than China hiding behind Belgium anyway.

    I don't have much of a guess on yields. I am playing bonds as being dead money now, along with every asset class other than equities. There is so little liquidity, and the CB's have such a monopoly on the bond market, they can pretty much peg yields where they want at this point.
    May 19, 2015. 02:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Bulls Are Back In Control [View article]
    Ben I really appreciate your perspective on gold. I would like to know, since you are a successful trader with an intelligent mindset, how you would handicap the odds of either of these two scenario's unfolding over the next 5-15 years.

    1) The debt overwhelms the system, the public loses faith in fiat money. Central banks continue to try to prop the system up, but eventually it crumbles and hard assets, not paper, rule the day.

    2) Central banks continue to prop up the markets through their zirp/nirp policies, which by extension keep the debt from damaging the system. Paper currencies are pushed more and more towards and eventual truly cashless society, giving central planners basically complete control and hard assets like gold and it's store of value history is erased from memory as generation after generation grow up in a world where it does not serve a function in the system.

    TIA for your thoughts.
    May 18, 2015. 08:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Bulls Are Back In Control [View article]
    Yields rose because Draghi was dumping the USTs. "Belgium" (ie ECB) bought $300bn in USTs because they knew QE was on the horizon, and they new that QE would take rates negative, therefore they bulked up on USTs in advance (which was thought was just to underwrite the purchases, but now turns out was for controlling yields). And when the bunds were just about to go negative they flooded the market with treasuries to pick up rates worldwide and keep EU debt positive:

    http://1.usa.gov/1pFqt5y

    the ECB dumped almost $100 *BILLION* in Treasuries in March (right when the sell-off from record lows started).

    some other funny things: despite the ECB dumping $100bil, the total was still net purchases of $10bil, with China adding $40bil and even Putin buying...lol...
    May 18, 2015. 06:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Investors Beware: Could The Current Global Bond Sell-Off Be A Start Of A Bear Market? [View article]
    The fed owns almost all of the long end of the curve and though regulations, have made it so that large banks need to own UST's for collateral purposes. Pension funds need to own them as well. There is a cap on yields and the fed knows what it is.

    We must buy spy and bow down to our monetary overlords and give thanks on this fine day, and every other.
    May 14, 2015. 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Americans Take 3-Trillion-Mile Road Trip As Dollar Corrects And Commodities Rebound [View article]
    "We might be seeing a dollar reset, which should finally give oil-not to mention gold, copper and other important commodities-much-needed breathing room."

    Nope
    May 12, 2015. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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