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marketwatcher23

marketwatcher23
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  • Yellen Comments Trigger Treasury Bond Sell-Off [View article]
    No kidding, I doubt anyone even sold. That 30yr at 2.85% looked like a big juicy steak. UST yields are heading one way, down.
    Dec 19, 2014. 04:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amgen Product Approvals Have Me Holding The Stock Tightly [View article]
    "Granted, the stock market is not the economy"

    That is the only thing you said that makes any sense. here is the question I always wonder about on this site. When can we all finally admit the truth which is that the economy is structurally broken and propping up the market is the only thing keeping things together? The fantastic irony out there to anyone who can see clearly is that there are two threats to the market.

    1) Overwhelming deflationary forces that the fed cannot counteract with stimulus. This is a very real threat, but so far it's under control.

    2) Actual economic growth. If the economy somehow magically healed and salaries and wages went up then inflation would actually kick in for real and the fed would have to raise rates and it could spark an inflationary wildfire once it became clear the U.S could not finance the interest on the debt at higher rates.

    So my apologies if my comment was cryptic. I am a big time stock market bull and am optimistic that as long as the real economy continues to stink and companies like Amgen, which by the way is a great company with a fantastic pipeline, continues to lay off workers (my comment above only partially applied to amgen, the buyback comment was geared to garbage stocks like IBM) then the fed will continue to have to push the market higher to compensate for it. I am not sure where the endpoint is to that gameplan but it seems like it can go on for a long time. Stay invested!
    Dec 19, 2014. 04:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amgen Product Approvals Have Me Holding The Stock Tightly [View article]
    This market has been built on companies cutting jobs and borrowing to buy back their stock.
    Dec 19, 2014. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Junk Bonds Are Going To Tell Us Where The Stock Market Is Heading In 2015 [View article]
    I am going with the theory that Janet is going to take every speculative yielding security and obliterate it. She, like her predecessor, wants everyone is SPY and TLT from here on out and she will do the heavy lifting. So, going forward, if you are looking for yield, you better find a company with a reasonable dividend (maybe 3% or less) that can maintain it, or start replacing dividend income with appreciation through the index. Just my kooky theory.
    Dec 19, 2014. 11:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Junk Bonds Are Going To Tell Us Where The Stock Market Is Heading In 2015 [View article]
    Is this the same Michael Snyder that writes some economic collapse blog that latches on to any fear porn he can find and is ALWAYS wrong?

    Well, in any event....Could you imagine betting 2 billion dollars on anything? I can't but considering QE was 85 billion a month and how many trillions of dollars are under management I'd say it's a drop in the bucket for many managers.

    "If junk bonds keep crashing, the stock market is almost certainly going to follow."

    Yeah....so that is completely incorrect. If junk bonds did crash all it would do would drive more money back into treasuries and SPY. Go back to fear porn 101 and take better notes.
    Dec 19, 2014. 07:53 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: I Revise My $150 Price Target Due To Lower Oil Prices [View article]
    Not a chance
    Dec 19, 2014. 07:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Default Risk Falls And Bond Trading Volume Tops The Charts [View article]
    NYer1 I still hold some Telefonica debt that I bought when the PIIG yields were blowing out. It was exactly what you are saying. The stock div ended up getting eliminated, stabilizing both the equity and debt. It worked out great. But the key was the yield crisis was brought back around very quickly. I am concerned that this will take longer. Good luck, I wish I had the courage.
    Dec 19, 2014. 07:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Default Risk Falls And Bond Trading Volume Tops The Charts [View article]
    Yeah I hear you. I just don't see the point of slamming oil down here and then letting off of Putin. I think when the U.S and Saudi's signed up for this the U.S knew there would be collateral damage but were willing to accept it. I'm just not sure how big the collateral damage is.
    Dec 19, 2014. 07:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Retirees Buy When Others Are Fearful: Is Panic In The Oil Patch Giving Us That Buy Signal? [View article]
    George I am sorry but picking two days (looks like the bounce ended today) of gains in an avalanche of losses and using that as your reason for buying not only does not make much sense, but it seems to detract from investing and lean more towards daytrading. Just trying to be honest here.
    Dec 18, 2014. 07:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Default Risk Falls And Bond Trading Volume Tops The Charts [View article]
    lol that is a scary sounding good luck. You think I have to worry about 2015 debt? I sure hope not. I figured they were hedged somewhat to buy some time and then the equity would really get killed first followed by the longer term debt...

    you feel differently?
    Dec 18, 2014. 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Default Risk Falls And Bond Trading Volume Tops The Charts [View article]
    I disagree. I am hoping RIG is hedged enough to make good on my Nov 2015 bonds but this move in oil, I believe, is going to be around for a while. This will get ugly in the high yield market and I am not sure RIG won't have to hurt some bondholders.

    With that said, this is a very interesting topic and possibly a great area to find value. I also own Calumet bonds and they are slammed down into the low 90's as well right now. I'd love to see more articles picking through the trash bin of these bonds for some diamonds.
    Dec 18, 2014. 04:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Default Risk Falls And Bond Trading Volume Tops The Charts [View article]
    Thanks for the write up Donald. I own the 2015's and have been watching them closely. Very glad I did not go out longer.
    Dec 18, 2014. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Retirees Buy When Others Are Fearful: Is Panic In The Oil Patch Giving Us That Buy Signal? [View article]
    I guess the term "dead cat bounce" is not too familiar around here....
    Dec 17, 2014. 08:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Draghi Risks Becoming The Boy Who Cried Wolf Over QE [View article]
    It's been over 2 years since he said he would "do whatever it takes". He has done nothing. In return for nothing he has bankrupt European sovereign yields going negative. He risks nothing. He has pulled one of the greatest tricks the markets have ever seen. Of course it helps when the central banks are the market.....
    Dec 17, 2014. 07:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will Short-Term Interest Rates Rise? [View article]
    Pretty much agreed. I actually think the 30yr will meet the 10yr at around those levels eventually. Maybe lower.
    Dec 17, 2014. 07:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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