Seeking Alpha

marketwatcher23

marketwatcher23
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View marketwatcher23's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • When Yellen Hikes Rates It Won't Be Due To Inflation [View article]
    Look, I say this to you with sincerity and honesty. You need to check your premises. The fed does not need to raise rates. The debt/gdp does not matter one bit. the bond market can't punish the fed because the fed owns enough UST's to prevent that.

    So the next logical conclusion is the US Dollar would get creamed in the currency market. Clearly that is not happening. Quite the opposite. The U.S could print a bunch more money and it still would not be an issue.

    What you seem to be struggling with is that the average American is getting punished by this system. You are correct. That does not mean it will change. I used to think it did. I was wrong. You are wrong. It is what it is.

    This is why we have the NFL and Beer and the kardashians. It was the same thing during the Roman empire. The worse things got the greater the bread and circuses were. The average American is willfully ignorant to the things that bother you, and the fed sure as hell is not going to rock the boat as long as that is the case.

    Best of luck to you, honestly.
    Mar 19, 2015. 11:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Yellen Hikes Rates It Won't Be Due To Inflation [View article]
    Well forget whether they are "helping" or not because it was never designed to help in the first place. If we agree that zirp created asset bubbles than raising rates in any meaningful way will only pop that bubble. Seeing how the fed has spent the last 5 plus years giving everyone no alternative to stocks and bonds, that means that Grandma now owns dividend stocks and CALPERS and every other pension fund is now invested. Most everyone is finally convinced the water is warm and they got in the pool.

    So now the fed "needs" to raise rates and wreak havoc on the very system they put together? Raising rates pops both stock and bond bubbles. You take away the wealth effect and it's 2008 tanks on the street scenario. I don't see why the fed "needs" to do that.
    Mar 19, 2015. 10:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Yellen Hikes Rates It Won't Be Due To Inflation [View article]
    Nice punt. You did not even take a shot at answering as to why you feel Yellen "needs" to raise rates. Cleary you have no answer. It was just another empty statement. Just what the marketwatcher suspected.
    Mar 19, 2015. 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Yellen Hikes Rates It Won't Be Due To Inflation [View article]
    "Conclusion

    The Fed may raise rates in the second half of 2015 or in 2016, but it most likely will not be due to inflationary pressures. In my opinion, zero percent rates have created asset bubbles but done little to improve the overall economy. "

    well if we are going to be less than cordial about it, I guess my point is your conclusion is clueless and worthless. Zero percent rates have created asset bubbles? That is revolutionary. Way to go, I have not heard that one a billion times. You say it's done little to improve the overall economy and then you admit it was not designed to help the economy, it was a wall street bailout.

    So back to you....what exactly is your point?

    and since you feel "Yellen needs to get rid of zero interest rates"

    Please tell us why she needs to. That would be interesting to hear.
    Mar 19, 2015. 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Yellen Hikes Rates It Won't Be Due To Inflation [View article]
    As long as the economy continues to deteriorate or at best stagnate, the equity markets should continue on the glide path higher as they have been. QE is no longer needed for that. The biggest threat to the fed is actual economic growth that forces them to have to actually raise rates. We can all agree that ain't happening.
    Mar 19, 2015. 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Yellen Hikes Rates It Won't Be Due To Inflation [View article]
    Of course it was. So it was wildly successful, and continues to be. I can't understand people who claim it was a failure because the economy has not responded. It was never about that.
    Mar 19, 2015. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Yellen Hikes Rates It Won't Be Due To Inflation [View article]
    How can you say QE was a complete waste of time? Honestly, if you believed that QE was ever about the economy you just got it wrong. QE was a wealth transfer mechanism. It was and is wildly successful if you have assets. The fed was never going to fix wage inflation issues, and they were never going to print money and send the pleebs a check. They made it clear they were going for asset inflation. Unfortunately the way to accomplish that was via ZIRP. If you had assets and either understood what was going on or were completely oblivious to it all and just stayed invested you did great. If you never had any real assets or you had a general distrust of the monetary system and therefore did not expose yourself to equities or bonds, well....you are screwed.

    I used to really let that bother me, because it really seems unfair. But that's life.
    Mar 19, 2015. 09:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things I Think I Think - Dollar Contagion And Dumb Markets [View article]
    The fed either knows they can't raise rates or the believe they finally have the market rigged in such a way that the believe they can raise them without setting off a crash. It's all good. Our monetary overlords have it covered.
    Mar 18, 2015. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things I Think I Think - Dollar Contagion And Dumb Markets [View article]
    I liked Schiff a lot but holy cow did he get this move wrong in yields and the almighty USD. If he is saying there is inflation right now I would feel very comfortably betting heavily against him.
    Mar 18, 2015. 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Non-Performing Loans Be The Next Trigger? [View article]
    This is incredibly bullish.
    Mar 16, 2015. 08:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Got It Wrong: The Latest Jobs Report And Rising Interest Rates Are Reasons To Own Gold [View article]
    You know I can't even conceive it happening. Unless the fed believes the middle class is finally dead and buried so they can finally raise rates and reward themselves on all the money that they transferred to themselves via QE. So in that case I suppose it's a possibility.
    Mar 10, 2015. 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Got It Wrong: The Latest Jobs Report And Rising Interest Rates Are Reasons To Own Gold [View article]
    It does not even matter if they do. So what if they go with a 25 bp move. It will affect nothing. Everyone knows that any moves are just token moves so the fed can stick their "mission accomplished" sign in the ground next to the phony GDP/employment data
    Mar 9, 2015. 02:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Got It Wrong: The Latest Jobs Report And Rising Interest Rates Are Reasons To Own Gold [View article]
    Even if you were to believe that the fed truly intended an actual rate hike cycle to begin, how high could they get rates up with the rest of the world going NIRP and UST's being the collateral and life blood of this system?

    Besides If you put the 30yr at 4% tomorrow as an asset manager I'd sell half my equity book and lock it in. Good luck in stocks the minute bonds ever look attractive again.
    Mar 8, 2015. 06:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Got It Wrong: The Latest Jobs Report And Rising Interest Rates Are Reasons To Own Gold [View article]
    I hear you man. I used to be firmly in that camp. But after years of watching EM's not tethered to the USD get torched by the same inflation I used to believe was imminent here I have moved on to the camp of never planning on selling my PM's but playing the game as it is because Russia stepped up against the US and is getting annihilated and China has not said peep and is more than happy to use their USD chained currency to pick Russia's carcass away.
    Mar 8, 2015. 06:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Got It Wrong: The Latest Jobs Report And Rising Interest Rates Are Reasons To Own Gold [View article]
    Hebba I like the article because you have a balanced view of things and we all know the jobs report, as with much other data, is total bs. But, as you pointed out, the fed knows this as well. So while I hope you are right about gold, there is one asset out there that is becoming a screaming buy, and it's bonds, specifically UST's.

    UST's are the new phyz gold. Literally. The world craves them. There is a scarcity of them right now and once this mini push higher in yields is over, we will work our way down to the JGB and Bund yield levels, then lower. This will of course push stocks higher, as usual. So the dip in stocks is an opportunity as well.

    It's too bad about gold, maybe one day the sun will finally shine for it, but I don't see that day anywhere on the horizon. The paper market still rules the phyz world.
    Mar 8, 2015. 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,230 Comments
2,375 Likes