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marketwatcher23

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  • Are The Distortions In The Stock Market And The Economy Catching Up With Us? [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1fGmrpE

    The above link shows a table with the total Fed holdings of the Treasury market (now around 25% of all durations).

    The Fed was able to increase its Treasury holdings from around 8% before 2008 (never more than 10% in history) to 25% (by 2010 already) See here for a detailed breakdown by year of maturity:

    http://nyfed.org/12yg38A

    (open link and click on T-notes and bonds, if you browse the years, you will see that by the time we get to the 2030's, the Fed owns around 70% of all the debt for those years).
    Aug 26, 2015. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are The Distortions In The Stock Market And The Economy Catching Up With Us? [View article]
    You speak in absolutes and the fed owns about 50% of the long bond.

    read the deep thoughts. Every single one. It will help.
    Aug 26, 2015. 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are The Distortions In The Stock Market And The Economy Catching Up With Us? [View article]
    1) http://bit.ly/1fFIo8i

    2) CD's. Fixed annuities, immediate annuities...for starters

    3) The debt for the entitlements etc is created by and then purchased by the central banks in order to keep rates low.
    Aug 26, 2015. 08:38 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    I am pretty sure the fed has given up trying to convince everyone that the economy is doing just fine. I think for anyone who understands things now, they know that the fed is banking on the economy to continue to sputter so they have cover to prop it up.

    The actual biggest threat to the fed is a real economic recovery. If we somehow got one (no chance) the capital markets would be toast.
    Aug 26, 2015. 06:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are The Distortions In The Stock Market And The Economy Catching Up With Us? [View article]
    1) What I "want" is irrelevant

    2) We need zirp to maintain the interest on the debt, and zirp takes away all other investment options other than stocks. Which is why the stock market does not reflect the underlying economy.

    3) Interest rates have been declining for 3 decades, as the debt load as been increasing.
    Aug 26, 2015. 06:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are The Distortions In The Stock Market And The Economy Catching Up With Us? [View article]
    because 6 years of zirp has forced everyone into stocks. Retail, pension funds, etc etc. So if we have a whopper of a correction in stocks and you dismantle the wealth effect the bernak worked so painstakingly hard at creating then consumer shuts down, pensions can't meet their obligations, municipalities start dropping and in a very short period of time you will have same subprime credit ripple move towards IG credit and once those spreads start blowing out then the treasury market will feel it. Now since the fed owns a majority of the long bond they may be able to keep sovereign yields low. But unless the fed steps in and starts bailing everyone out again it's the tanks on the street speech followed by actual tanks on the street this time.
    Aug 25, 2015. 08:17 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    it's different for each vocation. For teachers it ladders up and you have 20yrs, 25, 30 etc. So for someone who started 25 years ago at 25 and retires today at 30 they get the average of their last 3 years pay.

    Cops have it similar, although they can tack on overtime. In Nassau County they also get a lump sum of around 150-300k just as a going away present.

    Firefighters are similar. Up until about 2 years ago both the cops and firefighters had a nice deal where they stubbed their toe in the last 3 months and went out on full disability so the pension is tax free.

    I can't complain. I could have taken the tests. It was certainly a smart move to do so.
    Aug 25, 2015. 08:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are The Distortions In The Stock Market And The Economy Catching Up With Us? [View article]
    You can't have the stock market reflect the underlying economy unless you are ready to resolve the distortion of funding 19 trillion and counting in debt and 200 trillion in unfunded liabilities. You need Zirp to fund the interest on the debt and you need ever rising equity prices to try to push the velocity of money through the system, absent just handing out checks to the public.

    So I'd say Janet has about another 2-3% leeway in this correction before she truly changes investor sentiment and behavior and sparks something akin to 2008. A big equity correction leads to big credit events, and that's not allowed.
    Aug 25, 2015. 07:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    Both Nassau and Suffolk. Every teacher, cop and firefighter. I handle a lot of their packages and rollovers so I have a handle on what they get. To be fair to them, they point right at the wall street crowd and say "they keep burning down the house, go after them first". But we know it's a wall street government, so that ain't happenin.
    Aug 25, 2015. 07:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    sorry if I am being regional. I am on Long Island so by that I meant every teacher, cop and firefighter (by me).
    Aug 25, 2015. 07:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    I think the big picture assumption here is that the fed basically took lehman and bear and beat them to death at the kitchen table in front of the other TBTF banks as a lesson. Throw in the belief that the developed world's central banks are all in this together and you get two scenarios.

    1) the fed believes that they have cemented the btfd philosophy with retail and this is their final exam. I manage money and all my calls so far have been about what to buy and when to buy. So everyone is passing with flying colors.

    2) the fed decided it's time to shake retail upside down hard and bring us to the edge of the abyss so we all run kicking and screaming and give them even more power, and .gov as well.

    I'd like to believe it's door number 1 but I would not rule out door #2. In either scenario the fed has things completely under control and is not getting overwhelmed by market forces. They, and the TBTF banks are THE market force.
    Aug 25, 2015. 06:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    "But I tend to be in the camp that we need to purge enough excessive debt from the system (and weak participants) through the bankruptcy process (without gov't interference)."

    Zirp has tied in every pension fund to the almighty SPY. So if you want to purge every .gov pension, every cop, teacher and firefighter who is walking away at 54 with 100k/yr and free healthcare, have at it. I am totally down. But know that entrée comes with a side of financial meltdown and tanks in the street when the boomers pension check does not hit and they are out of Viagra.

    If the fed wants us to beg, then they want us to beg. Not much else to do.
    Aug 25, 2015. 06:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    how about they buy equities? Don't even announce it. Just funnel a few trillion through the TBTF banks and have them do it
    Aug 25, 2015. 06:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Safe? [View article]
    I can only speak for GILD but those quotes were not being filled. I'd love to congratulate anyone who got it in the high 80's. That was about a nano second. The second I went to grab it, it was back near 100.
    Aug 25, 2015. 09:07 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    It's impossible t not "have a horse in this race". If the fed can't keep propping this blob up everything goes out the window.
    Aug 25, 2015. 09:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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