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marketwatcher23

marketwatcher23
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  • When Yellen Hikes Rates It Won't Be Due To Inflation [View article]
    As long as the economy continues to deteriorate or at best stagnate, the equity markets should continue on the glide path higher as they have been. QE is no longer needed for that. The biggest threat to the fed is actual economic growth that forces them to have to actually raise rates. We can all agree that ain't happening.
    Mar 19, 2015. 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Yellen Hikes Rates It Won't Be Due To Inflation [View article]
    Of course it was. So it was wildly successful, and continues to be. I can't understand people who claim it was a failure because the economy has not responded. It was never about that.
    Mar 19, 2015. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Yellen Hikes Rates It Won't Be Due To Inflation [View article]
    How can you say QE was a complete waste of time? Honestly, if you believed that QE was ever about the economy you just got it wrong. QE was a wealth transfer mechanism. It was and is wildly successful if you have assets. The fed was never going to fix wage inflation issues, and they were never going to print money and send the pleebs a check. They made it clear they were going for asset inflation. Unfortunately the way to accomplish that was via ZIRP. If you had assets and either understood what was going on or were completely oblivious to it all and just stayed invested you did great. If you never had any real assets or you had a general distrust of the monetary system and therefore did not expose yourself to equities or bonds, well....you are screwed.

    I used to really let that bother me, because it really seems unfair. But that's life.
    Mar 19, 2015. 09:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things I Think I Think - Dollar Contagion And Dumb Markets [View article]
    The fed either knows they can't raise rates or the believe they finally have the market rigged in such a way that the believe they can raise them without setting off a crash. It's all good. Our monetary overlords have it covered.
    Mar 18, 2015. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things I Think I Think - Dollar Contagion And Dumb Markets [View article]
    I liked Schiff a lot but holy cow did he get this move wrong in yields and the almighty USD. If he is saying there is inflation right now I would feel very comfortably betting heavily against him.
    Mar 18, 2015. 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Non-Performing Loans Be The Next Trigger? [View article]
    This is incredibly bullish.
    Mar 16, 2015. 08:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Got It Wrong: The Latest Jobs Report And Rising Interest Rates Are Reasons To Own Gold [View article]
    You know I can't even conceive it happening. Unless the fed believes the middle class is finally dead and buried so they can finally raise rates and reward themselves on all the money that they transferred to themselves via QE. So in that case I suppose it's a possibility.
    Mar 10, 2015. 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Got It Wrong: The Latest Jobs Report And Rising Interest Rates Are Reasons To Own Gold [View article]
    It does not even matter if they do. So what if they go with a 25 bp move. It will affect nothing. Everyone knows that any moves are just token moves so the fed can stick their "mission accomplished" sign in the ground next to the phony GDP/employment data
    Mar 9, 2015. 02:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Got It Wrong: The Latest Jobs Report And Rising Interest Rates Are Reasons To Own Gold [View article]
    Even if you were to believe that the fed truly intended an actual rate hike cycle to begin, how high could they get rates up with the rest of the world going NIRP and UST's being the collateral and life blood of this system?

    Besides If you put the 30yr at 4% tomorrow as an asset manager I'd sell half my equity book and lock it in. Good luck in stocks the minute bonds ever look attractive again.
    Mar 8, 2015. 06:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Got It Wrong: The Latest Jobs Report And Rising Interest Rates Are Reasons To Own Gold [View article]
    I hear you man. I used to be firmly in that camp. But after years of watching EM's not tethered to the USD get torched by the same inflation I used to believe was imminent here I have moved on to the camp of never planning on selling my PM's but playing the game as it is because Russia stepped up against the US and is getting annihilated and China has not said peep and is more than happy to use their USD chained currency to pick Russia's carcass away.
    Mar 8, 2015. 06:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Got It Wrong: The Latest Jobs Report And Rising Interest Rates Are Reasons To Own Gold [View article]
    Hebba I like the article because you have a balanced view of things and we all know the jobs report, as with much other data, is total bs. But, as you pointed out, the fed knows this as well. So while I hope you are right about gold, there is one asset out there that is becoming a screaming buy, and it's bonds, specifically UST's.

    UST's are the new phyz gold. Literally. The world craves them. There is a scarcity of them right now and once this mini push higher in yields is over, we will work our way down to the JGB and Bund yield levels, then lower. This will of course push stocks higher, as usual. So the dip in stocks is an opportunity as well.

    It's too bad about gold, maybe one day the sun will finally shine for it, but I don't see that day anywhere on the horizon. The paper market still rules the phyz world.
    Mar 8, 2015. 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thanks For The Corporate Bond Bubble, Fed [View article]
    You think the buybacks just started in February? This has been going on for years now. The best part is, as long as the fed keeps rates near/at zirp, it can go on for a long long time.

    I think Stockton is clueless and like many before him he will turn from perma bear to pissed off bull soon enough.

    The debt does not matter.
    Mar 6, 2015. 07:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Shuns Bogle, Increases International Exposure [View article]
    Bogle knows the real deal. He knows that people have managed to lose money throughout this major run since 2008 and he knows that most people are scared and don't trust the market. But he knows that it is totally and completely rigged and that is why we will never get more than a 10% dip again. But the 5-10% dips will continue to be created for entry points into SPY. Or in this case IVV.

    The fed can't force people into the index, but absent that, they will try to give the clearest signals it can, and Bogle is one of them. Buffet is another. Get in the index, and the fed will lift it 10-15% a year. But stop screwing around and losing money while they push it higher.
    Mar 5, 2015. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity outflows may be sign of a toppy market [View news story]
    "rates going up eventually is."

    I would encourage you to pull out the chart of the 30yr bond as far as you can. You may want to question that statement.
    Mar 5, 2015. 10:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • On the hour [View news story]
    this was a violent 2 day correction we just endured. Only those with true grit and brass cojones will be rewarded for stepping in and buying.
    Mar 5, 2015. 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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