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marketwatcher23

marketwatcher23
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  • Transocean Default Risk Falls And Bond Trading Volume Tops The Charts [View article]
    I disagree. I am hoping RIG is hedged enough to make good on my Nov 2015 bonds but this move in oil, I believe, is going to be around for a while. This will get ugly in the high yield market and I am not sure RIG won't have to hurt some bondholders.

    With that said, this is a very interesting topic and possibly a great area to find value. I also own Calumet bonds and they are slammed down into the low 90's as well right now. I'd love to see more articles picking through the trash bin of these bonds for some diamonds.
    Dec 18, 2014. 04:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Default Risk Falls And Bond Trading Volume Tops The Charts [View article]
    Thanks for the write up Donald. I own the 2015's and have been watching them closely. Very glad I did not go out longer.
    Dec 18, 2014. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Retirees Buy When Others Are Fearful: Is Panic In The Oil Patch Giving Us That Buy Signal? [View article]
    I guess the term "dead cat bounce" is not too familiar around here....
    Dec 17, 2014. 08:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Draghi Risks Becoming The Boy Who Cried Wolf Over QE [View article]
    It's been over 2 years since he said he would "do whatever it takes". He has done nothing. In return for nothing he has bankrupt European sovereign yields going negative. He risks nothing. He has pulled one of the greatest tricks the markets have ever seen. Of course it helps when the central banks are the market.....
    Dec 17, 2014. 07:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will Short-Term Interest Rates Rise? [View article]
    Pretty much agreed. I actually think the 30yr will meet the 10yr at around those levels eventually. Maybe lower.
    Dec 17, 2014. 07:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will Short-Term Interest Rates Rise? [View article]
    I think QE is done fish. At least in it's previous form. It's up to the fed to start sending checks directly to the pleebs now.
    Dec 16, 2014. 07:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Retirees Buy When Others Are Fearful: Is Panic In The Oil Patch Giving Us That Buy Signal? [View article]
    Rates trended higher in a mini panic because the fed mentioned ending QE. Again, that was just a blip, nothing more. The trend in yields have always been down because the trend in debt has always been up. As Deckert mentioned, we don't have a 1980's economy anymore. We have a few wealthy people and a large Free Sh!t Army now. It's different.

    George here is something to wrap your head around. Rising food prices rising utilities are 100% deflationary because people will spend whatever money they have for those necessities. What happens is it reduces what they spend on everything else because they have less money.

    So at some point Central banks will either start ratcheting up the handouts to the masses to create this inflation they always claim to want to create (anyone who truly understands QE knows it was never meant to create inflation) or we watch the dollar soar and everything crater around it.
    Dec 16, 2014. 06:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Black Bear Is Unleashed [View article]
    Eric with the 30yr treasury well under 3% and High Yield stocks blowing up where else are you going to put money other than SPY? This can go on for longer than many of us here believe possible.
    Dec 15, 2014. 08:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Black Bear Is Unleashed [View article]
    Interesting Times Precious metals have already fallen 40% plus from their highs. Oil is finally catching up with the rest of the commodity complex which was taken out back and beaten.
    Dec 15, 2014. 08:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia hikes interest rate to 17% in attempt to halt ruble's plunge [View news story]
    leaving Crimea
    Dec 15, 2014. 08:18 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will Short-Term Interest Rates Rise? [View article]
    The safest place to be is to continue to sit out on the long end of the curve and not worry what the fed does with the short end.
    Dec 15, 2014. 08:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Retirees Buy When Others Are Fearful: Is Panic In The Oil Patch Giving Us That Buy Signal? [View article]
    If they have been in decline for 30 years how can you claim to know when it's a run to safety or something else?

    I am saying when you see interest rates in Europe and Japan going negative and the U.S following suit it's fair to say this is a deflationary trend. Throw in the commodity complex cratering and that's the exclamation point.

    The math is pretty simple, the higher the debt burden grows the more it chokes out growth and the lower yields have to go. Ultimately it's a deflationary trend and japan is the template. Should be good for stocks for a while.
    Dec 15, 2014. 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Retirees Buy When Others Are Fearful: Is Panic In The Oil Patch Giving Us That Buy Signal? [View article]
    Come on George, pick your commodity. They have all gotten crushed. Then go take a look at that 30yr treasury completely flattening down. Have a look at European yields as well. The entire bond complex is going the way of the Japanese bond market. The writing is all over the wall.
    Dec 15, 2014. 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Not Sell Your Oil Stocks At A Loss [View article]
    I don't get it with these names. Look where XOM was trading in 2011 when we had a weak dollar and commodities were scorching higher. Then justify where XOM should trade even if crude got back to 75-80. Makes no sense to own these names.
    Dec 15, 2014. 01:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Not Sell Your Oil Stocks At A Loss [View article]
    The commodity supercycle is dead and interest rates are making it clear that NIRP rules the day. This is purely deflationary from here and anything commodity related is in for serious pain. Maybe you get a small breather when you see them marching in Moscow with Putin's head on a stick. But not much.
    Dec 15, 2014. 01:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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