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marketwatcher23

marketwatcher23
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  • Are You Betting On The Fed? Allocate According To The 'Fundamentals' And 'Technicals' Instead [View article]
    I think it's realistic to expect a 3-4% dip before the next 10% run up. Buckle your seatbelts.
    May 22, 2015. 08:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Bulls Are Back In Control [View article]
    I am sticking with the ECB knowing that when they announced QE, everyone else would front run them or not sell. So they needed to unleash a whoopin on some people to loosen things up. It went perfectly. China just makes no sense to me.

    The problem with when ZH used to post financial articles is they would take both sides of a debate (hyperinflation/deflation for instance) and post articles backing both sides. Then say "as presented here and here" with articles to whichever side temporarily was playing out.

    Their original claim that it is flow that matters and not stock has been completely debunked. Basically from their founding premise, and every day since, they have been wrong. The only intelligent move they made was switching to click bait doom porn.
    May 20, 2015. 06:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Bulls Are Back In Control [View article]
    Fish, did you read that on ZH? Because they are 100% wrong, as usual. It honestly is sad how bad that sites analysis has become since they made a full turn towards constant infowars/drudge.

    It was Draghi and for the reasons stated. It sure makes a lot more sense than China hiding behind Belgium anyway.

    I don't have much of a guess on yields. I am playing bonds as being dead money now, along with every asset class other than equities. There is so little liquidity, and the CB's have such a monopoly on the bond market, they can pretty much peg yields where they want at this point.
    May 19, 2015. 02:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Bulls Are Back In Control [View article]
    Ben I really appreciate your perspective on gold. I would like to know, since you are a successful trader with an intelligent mindset, how you would handicap the odds of either of these two scenario's unfolding over the next 5-15 years.

    1) The debt overwhelms the system, the public loses faith in fiat money. Central banks continue to try to prop the system up, but eventually it crumbles and hard assets, not paper, rule the day.

    2) Central banks continue to prop up the markets through their zirp/nirp policies, which by extension keep the debt from damaging the system. Paper currencies are pushed more and more towards and eventual truly cashless society, giving central planners basically complete control and hard assets like gold and it's store of value history is erased from memory as generation after generation grow up in a world where it does not serve a function in the system.

    TIA for your thoughts.
    May 18, 2015. 08:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Bulls Are Back In Control [View article]
    Yields rose because Draghi was dumping the USTs. "Belgium" (ie ECB) bought $300bn in USTs because they knew QE was on the horizon, and they new that QE would take rates negative, therefore they bulked up on USTs in advance (which was thought was just to underwrite the purchases, but now turns out was for controlling yields). And when the bunds were just about to go negative they flooded the market with treasuries to pick up rates worldwide and keep EU debt positive:

    http://1.usa.gov/1pFqt5y

    the ECB dumped almost $100 *BILLION* in Treasuries in March (right when the sell-off from record lows started).

    some other funny things: despite the ECB dumping $100bil, the total was still net purchases of $10bil, with China adding $40bil and even Putin buying...lol...
    May 18, 2015. 06:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Investors Beware: Could The Current Global Bond Sell-Off Be A Start Of A Bear Market? [View article]
    The fed owns almost all of the long end of the curve and though regulations, have made it so that large banks need to own UST's for collateral purposes. Pension funds need to own them as well. There is a cap on yields and the fed knows what it is.

    We must buy spy and bow down to our monetary overlords and give thanks on this fine day, and every other.
    May 14, 2015. 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Americans Take 3-Trillion-Mile Road Trip As Dollar Corrects And Commodities Rebound [View article]
    "We might be seeing a dollar reset, which should finally give oil-not to mention gold, copper and other important commodities-much-needed breathing room."

    Nope
    May 12, 2015. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Investors Beware: Could The Current Global Bond Sell-Off Be A Start Of A Bear Market? [View article]
    Everything you guys mention the fed is well aware of, which is why it won't happen.
    May 12, 2015. 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarian Bet: June Rate Hike [View article]
    If the public understood that the only thing going up will be borrowing costs and savers will not be rewarded, I doubt we would be bothering with any of this and could just embrace zirp 4eva
    May 12, 2015. 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Investors Beware: Could The Current Global Bond Sell-Off Be A Start Of A Bear Market? [View article]
    What you guys are describing is a market correction. That is not hell. That is a buying opp. Hell is this thing spiraling out of control and crashing the dollar and trust in fiat money.
    May 12, 2015. 08:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Investors Beware: Could The Current Global Bond Sell-Off Be A Start Of A Bear Market? [View article]
    khlim that is the funniest part about all this, and why it's all a scam. Only quality stuff is selling off. Germun Bunds, Treasuries, but HYG is doing just fine. Someone has declared a real bond implosion off limits. Because if this were real, HUG would be selling off hard.

    This is all theatre. Draghi said he wanted to buy bonds, no one wanted to sell them, so he taught them a lesson. It will pass.
    May 12, 2015. 07:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarian Bet: June Rate Hike [View article]
    my apologies, no "recognized" recession. All data can be set to where they want it,
    May 12, 2015. 06:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Investors Beware: Could The Current Global Bond Sell-Off Be A Start Of A Bear Market? [View article]
    Agreed that the elites have made a fortune, no doubt. But the public sector and whatever is left of the 401k private sector will get smashed to pieces if interest rates move up too sharply (like this morning for instance) and take down the stock market. I just mean the elites are better off living the dream and throwing us some scraps. They risk guillotines if they want to pull the rug out from everyone below them.
    May 12, 2015. 06:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarian Bet: June Rate Hike [View article]
    There will never be another recession again. It's a centrally planned economy now.
    May 11, 2015. 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The War On Cash And How To Play It [View article]
    Agreed cash will go away and chips will be implanted in our asses so we can be tracked at all times. It's better that way.
    May 11, 2015. 09:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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