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marketwatcher23

marketwatcher23
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  • Equity outflows may be sign of a toppy market [View news story]
    There is no market.
    Mar 5, 2015. 06:29 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Raising Interest Rates Might Not Be As Crazy As Some Make It Seem [View article]
    "No, banks are making handsome profits as is. Raising interest rates will, if anything, reduce their profits. Customers can borrow less money as interest rates rise. When banks loan money, it is money that they "print" themselves, de novo. Banks are not constrained in lending by interest rates, the lower the rates, the more they can lend."

    I hear you. I think banks are doing just fine because all that QE money has been deposited on their balance sheets. That plus them having changed the laws so they can gamble with depositors money has really goosed profits.

    I disagree about "the lower the rates, the more they can lend" It sounds right in theory but any chart out there of money velocity says otherwise. Joe sixpack does not want another loan. Maybe if rates go negative and banks are willing to pay him to take a loan.
    Mar 3, 2015. 08:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Raising Interest Rates Might Not Be As Crazy As Some Make It Seem [View article]
    Hi David, in your view, is the point of raising rates to make banks more money?

    I understand your point above. I am not saying it will do much. I think the fed is trying to gain every bit of leverage that they can by raising rates. I don't think the net effect is much at all. But I also think the market is completely and totally rigged so to me this whole thing is neither here nor there.

    I agree with you that I don't think there is a problem that needs to be solved. I don't agree that the banks are lending in a healthy way. I believe most of the loans today from banks are subprime auto and student loans and other forms of debt that won't help the economy in the long run. But if we are to have a rising equity market it's important that there is no growth and no inflation. That's the breaks.
    Mar 3, 2015. 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Raising Interest Rates Might Not Be As Crazy As Some Make It Seem [View article]
    "So what precisely is the problem that needs to be solved by raising rates?"

    negative rates
    Mar 3, 2015. 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Raising Interest Rates Might Not Be As Crazy As Some Make It Seem [View article]
    yeah you may be right. My line of thinking was that those full time jobs lost in 2007-2009 which are now being replaced by part time service sector jobs (unless you work at target today) does not put the consumer in much better condition. But hey at least their healthcare premiums are lower.....
    Mar 3, 2015. 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Weakness In Silver Continue? [View article]
    He's dead Jim
    Mar 3, 2015. 06:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Raising Interest Rates Might Not Be As Crazy As Some Make It Seem [View article]
    "We have not tried raising rates, let us see what happens".

    That is exactly the plan. The key to it's success hinges on EVERYONE understanding that it is just a token raise that will have no effect on anything. Once the fed believes the market won't overreact, then they will raise them. This way once they are raised the fed can goose the market by considering cutting them. Same as it ever was.

    "the US consumer is much healthier than they were back in 2006-2012 when balance sheets were largely underwater due to high debt levels."

    Now that is pure comedy right there. I think the author should have added that he was being sarcastic, but either way it definitely got me to LOL
    Mar 3, 2015. 06:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow 20,000; Is It Possible? [View article]
    We ain't seen nothing yet when it comes to multiple expansion. This party is just getting started.
    Mar 1, 2015. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow 20,000; Is It Possible? [View article]
    Move to cash. Earn nothing. Watch market go higher. Buy in at higher level. Move to cash. Earn nothing. Watch market go higher. Buy in at higher level. Move to cash. Earn nothing.....

    Zirp 101
    Mar 1, 2015. 12:41 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Your Biggest Risk In The Market May Not Be What You Think [View article]
    I sit at a computer all day long looking at this stuff. Trust me that does not improve your averages. It probably makes them worse.
    Feb 28, 2015. 03:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Your Biggest Risk In The Market May Not Be What You Think [View article]
    My wife is Russian, they moved here in the early 1990's with nothing and many of them are incredibly successful business people. So believe me, I have some perspective. In terms of the last several generations of Americans, millenials are starting with less. Maybe they are starting from a former slave after the civil war, but I admit I was not using that as the bar. Millenials have paid out the nose for their education and most are loaded up in debt from it. Most available jobs are not paying enough for them to save once they are done paying their bills. Same goes for Gen X.

    There are definitely some examples where millenials have succeeded and become very wealthy and have invested along the way. Same goes for Gen X. This stuff is not black and white, and so I don't speak in absolutes. But it has gotten more difficult for each generation and it will continue to from here.
    Feb 28, 2015. 01:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Your Biggest Risk In The Market May Not Be What You Think [View article]
    Yeah agreed. But that assumes they have two nickels to rub together. For the Millenials I mean inflation in healthcare and rent. They also have massive student loan debt. The Gen X'ers in their 30's have pretty much the same while trying to account for inflation in education costs for their kids as well. SPY certainly has proven to be the way to go. But that assumes the person has the ability to fund it.
    Feb 28, 2015. 06:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Your Biggest Risk In The Market May Not Be What You Think [View article]
    Cool stuff man thanks for that.
    Feb 27, 2015. 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Your Biggest Risk In The Market May Not Be What You Think [View article]
    I wasn't alive from 1950-1970 so that does not count
    Feb 27, 2015. 01:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Your Biggest Risk In The Market May Not Be What You Think [View article]
    No doubt. I wonder if you calculated using that same time frame, someone who rolled over 5yr treasuries and reinvested the interest earned what they earned.

    When I say risk adjusted I mean more regarding the authors point that the average investor returned 3% plus or w/e the number was. Not many people just sat in the S&P for 20 years but a lot of people owned CD's and treasuries.
    Feb 27, 2015. 09:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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