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marketwatcher23

marketwatcher23
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  • Gold Bulls Are Back In Control [View article]
    Yields rose because Draghi was dumping the USTs. "Belgium" (ie ECB) bought $300bn in USTs because they knew QE was on the horizon, and they new that QE would take rates negative, therefore they bulked up on USTs in advance (which was thought was just to underwrite the purchases, but now turns out was for controlling yields). And when the bunds were just about to go negative they flooded the market with treasuries to pick up rates worldwide and keep EU debt positive:

    http://1.usa.gov/1pFqt5y

    the ECB dumped almost $100 *BILLION* in Treasuries in March (right when the sell-off from record lows started).

    some other funny things: despite the ECB dumping $100bil, the total was still net purchases of $10bil, with China adding $40bil and even Putin buying...lol...
    May 18, 2015. 06:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Investors Beware: Could The Current Global Bond Sell-Off Be A Start Of A Bear Market? [View article]
    The fed owns almost all of the long end of the curve and though regulations, have made it so that large banks need to own UST's for collateral purposes. Pension funds need to own them as well. There is a cap on yields and the fed knows what it is.

    We must buy spy and bow down to our monetary overlords and give thanks on this fine day, and every other.
    May 14, 2015. 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Americans Take 3-Trillion-Mile Road Trip As Dollar Corrects And Commodities Rebound [View article]
    "We might be seeing a dollar reset, which should finally give oil-not to mention gold, copper and other important commodities-much-needed breathing room."

    Nope
    May 12, 2015. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Investors Beware: Could The Current Global Bond Sell-Off Be A Start Of A Bear Market? [View article]
    Everything you guys mention the fed is well aware of, which is why it won't happen.
    May 12, 2015. 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarian Bet: June Rate Hike [View article]
    If the public understood that the only thing going up will be borrowing costs and savers will not be rewarded, I doubt we would be bothering with any of this and could just embrace zirp 4eva
    May 12, 2015. 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Investors Beware: Could The Current Global Bond Sell-Off Be A Start Of A Bear Market? [View article]
    What you guys are describing is a market correction. That is not hell. That is a buying opp. Hell is this thing spiraling out of control and crashing the dollar and trust in fiat money.
    May 12, 2015. 08:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Investors Beware: Could The Current Global Bond Sell-Off Be A Start Of A Bear Market? [View article]
    khlim that is the funniest part about all this, and why it's all a scam. Only quality stuff is selling off. Germun Bunds, Treasuries, but HYG is doing just fine. Someone has declared a real bond implosion off limits. Because if this were real, HUG would be selling off hard.

    This is all theatre. Draghi said he wanted to buy bonds, no one wanted to sell them, so he taught them a lesson. It will pass.
    May 12, 2015. 07:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarian Bet: June Rate Hike [View article]
    my apologies, no "recognized" recession. All data can be set to where they want it,
    May 12, 2015. 06:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Investors Beware: Could The Current Global Bond Sell-Off Be A Start Of A Bear Market? [View article]
    Agreed that the elites have made a fortune, no doubt. But the public sector and whatever is left of the 401k private sector will get smashed to pieces if interest rates move up too sharply (like this morning for instance) and take down the stock market. I just mean the elites are better off living the dream and throwing us some scraps. They risk guillotines if they want to pull the rug out from everyone below them.
    May 12, 2015. 06:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarian Bet: June Rate Hike [View article]
    There will never be another recession again. It's a centrally planned economy now.
    May 11, 2015. 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The War On Cash And How To Play It [View article]
    Agreed cash will go away and chips will be implanted in our asses so we can be tracked at all times. It's better that way.
    May 11, 2015. 09:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Investors Beware: Could The Current Global Bond Sell-Off Be A Start Of A Bear Market? [View article]
    Normally I would completely agree with you but for some reason I don't buy it. Think about how much money has been shoved into equities and UST's. Forget retail and their trillions in 401k money. We are talking pension funds here. If you start seeing those massively underfunded pensions lose on both stocks and bonds it will trigger another massive financial crisis. I just don't see the fed turning the gun on itself and blowing all our heads off.

    More than likely yields eventually settle down, and either become range bound or start falling. In either scenario equities stay calm and resume their uptrend. That's the bet to make, imho.
    May 11, 2015. 07:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Investors Beware: Could The Current Global Bond Sell-Off Be A Start Of A Bear Market? [View article]
    Let me see if I have this right...

    So the Bernakyellen drop rates to zero for so long that everyone has no choice but to crowd into equities and the long end of the bond market. Then, once everyone is finally in, Yellen declares that valuations are high on stocks and bonds risk a selloff if rates rise. Then....she raises rates to fulfill her own prognostication and blowtorches the same people she forced into the markets.

    sounds good.
    May 11, 2015. 07:31 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Smashes Q1 Estimates; How Will The Market React This Time? [View article]
    see my first post to start off this thread.
    May 5, 2015. 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Smashes Q1 Estimates; How Will The Market React This Time? [View article]
    There is no doubt they have stalled. But at the same time there probably has been no better place to park money this year to ride out market turbulence. The only question is if/when does it break higher. Just my opinion but I think anytime it falls below 100 it just invites new money in and holds that floor.
    May 1, 2015. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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