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marketwatcher23

marketwatcher23
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  • QE Never Left Us: The U.S. Economy And Stocks Will Grow Faster And Higher [View article]
    Ba1kes I would say in a broad sense keep planning on yields going lower and stocks going higher. I think part of the collateral damage in a rigged market is to money managers and economists. It's the reason they have been destroyed by the index. So maybe it makes sense to have your largest holding be the index (VTI, SPY etc) and then go for certain areas in technology where you get a boost over the market. For example, and again, this is not a recommendation at all....but I don't own Aapl, but I do own NXPI and AVGO and so far they have treated me well. That is the aggressive portion of my portfolio. Then I also see value in owning vanilla div payers and companies like Lockheed and General Dynamics which to me are basically like owning treasuries with a good yields and some growth because defense is basically an extension of .gov. But honestly, I would wager that someone who owned 50% SPY, 25% TLT, 12.5% IBB and 12.5% QQQ will outperform any active advisor out there.

    If this is a bubble and it does pop it won't matter anyway. There will be nowhere to run to. May as well have some fun. Good luck
    Feb 15, 2015. 10:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Never Left Us: The U.S. Economy And Stocks Will Grow Faster And Higher [View article]
    @SD I appreciate your point about the police and you are right that in many cases those bonds that are formed have a hard time holding up. I admit that my "theory" is based on the strongest of all bonds being formed and no one going off the reservation. It was pretty funny when JPM got caught in the "whale" trade and everyone did everything humanly possible to get them out unscathed. That was just one small example to me that everyone is on the same team now. Anyway, we will see what happens.

    As far as investments, I also like tech. Take a look at EPAM systems if you have a chance. I am not endorsing anything, just have a look. I really liked Alliant tech as well and last week they broke into two companies (OA and VSTO). As I said above I use mostly a broad market index etf and then build on it with certain companies whose stocks I really like (McKesson is another one).

    I appreciate your thoughts on Greece. It's not my thing. I have sort of taken the approach that this is a winners market so just ride them. But I understand the viewpoint and I hope it works out. I think Greece is indicative of what "central planning" is fighting right now. I also believe that it is these scenario's that end up in monetary policy handing the torch over to fiscal policy in many places eventually (hence the guaranteed income scenario)

    Someone a lot smarter than me passed this book on to me. If you have not read it, it is worth the read, fwiw. Good luck to you.

    http://amzn.to/1FOrWKQ
    Feb 15, 2015. 08:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Never Left Us: The U.S. Economy And Stocks Will Grow Faster And Higher [View article]
    Whats the math on how much they own in 20yr paper and older?
    Feb 15, 2015. 07:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Never Left Us: The U.S. Economy And Stocks Will Grow Faster And Higher [View article]
    Because since I believe the market is rigged (to go higher) and there is no alternative, I need to make money like everyone else. I simply asked the question "why can't we just admit it's rigged"? As far as seeking alpha, I believe that within the rigged market, there are some places worth investing in and some worth avoiding. So maybe on here every once in a while some good ideas get flushed out. It just turns my stomach when people feel the need to attribute market gains to economic growth, then use hot garbage stats put to back it up.
    Feb 14, 2015. 10:20 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Never Left Us: The U.S. Economy And Stocks Will Grow Faster And Higher [View article]
    "1) I use all Fed data"

    I give James credit for that, at least he is clear about his thesis.

    Yeah, I guess you more or less have the idea. I mean, it's pretty obvious. Is the idea that politicians are bought off left and right foreign to you? You may consider all this a conspiracy theory, or may not, whatever. Seems like a lot of people think it's realistic. Maybe it's not a bad thing? If you have any investment ideas, I am all ears, as this is an investment related site as you noted.
    Feb 14, 2015. 09:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Never Left Us: The U.S. Economy And Stocks Will Grow Faster And Higher [View article]
    Central planning is planning done by those in charge of monetary policy. So that would be the Fed in conjunction with other CB's. That extends out throughout the entire banking system. There are revolving doors everywhere. How many members of Goldman, for example, have went on to work at different central banks? How many JPM higher ups have moved on to the SEC? etc etc etc

    So, even though I believe you are too shallow to consider the possibility, I believe that the market is controlled by Central banks and by extension the largest banking institutions out there. They not only control the markets via monetary policy (ZIRP and soon to be NIRP) but they are able to actively be involved in the markets to push them higher, as well as not bet against the market. As I have said on here, the wealth effect has been choses to replace the economy. That's cool.

    To compliment that, the government, which is run by the banks (no question there, just look at top donors of each candidate), puts out data that CNBC etc parades out all day long to blow sunshine up everyone's A$$.

    Or, and this is certainly possible, I am wrong. Things are getting much better, and the data is all real, and the "market" we watch every day is a reflection of that. The good news for me is either way, I make money if I invest accordingly.

    What are your thoughts on the market? Do you have any? Maybe you should question James more and not just the people who question him.
    Feb 14, 2015. 08:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Never Left Us: The U.S. Economy And Stocks Will Grow Faster And Higher [View article]
    I will answer your question as soon as you tell the author to refrain from personal attacks, since you are the self anointed cherub of justice on here.

    Then, when you are done with that, I'd like your thoughts on what I put forth before we go forward. After that, You need to take at least 3 surfing lessons as you must believe there must be some Bilderberg/NWO conspiracy regarding surfing in San Diego.

    Sorry man you blew your chance, I took the time to answer your questions and all you could come up with was that I was attacking someone. I'd rather you tell me how your kid worked for NASA in between inventing the artificial heart doohickey. That guy was at least a bit funny.
    Feb 14, 2015. 07:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Never Left Us: The U.S. Economy And Stocks Will Grow Faster And Higher [View article]
    Dude go back and read what the author had to say to me. Funny I don't see you on there defending me. When did I say anything about a conspiracy? You clearly can't handle mildly intellectual conversation. I threw some food for thought out there and many people on here seem to relate to it. It's not my fault if it goes over your head. Cleary you can't handle it. Stop screaming "conspiracy" at everything you don't understand. Honestly it's lame.
    Feb 14, 2015. 07:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Never Left Us: The U.S. Economy And Stocks Will Grow Faster And Higher [View article]
    It does not matter what his market predictions are. All that matters is he accurately predicted the economy, as validated by BLS statistics, and a guy in San Diego who refuses to surf.
    Feb 14, 2015. 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Never Left Us: The U.S. Economy And Stocks Will Grow Faster And Higher [View article]
    LOL San Diego that post was a personal attack? Dude in all due respect I took the time and answered your questions honestly. If you believe my answer is some tin foil hat conspiracy so be it. Honestly, go back to watching "so you think you can dance" and eat your peas. I thought you were one step above the average sheeple. My bad.
    Feb 14, 2015. 07:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Never Left Us: The U.S. Economy And Stocks Will Grow Faster And Higher [View article]
    I understand that what I am saying is unconventional but if you think it through I believe it makes sense. I get what you mean by scam but I would not characterize it as a scam. As I said up top, the underlying "problems" with employment are structural, and automation is definitely part of it. They won't be fixed. In reality the middle class started falling apart 30(ish) years ago and we basically blew a 30 year debt bubble in lieu of an economy but around 2000 that started popping. So Central Planning has stepped in and has taken control of the markets to keep pushing up asset prices in an attempt to create wealth in place of the economy which continues to deteriorate. We are now at a bit of a crossroads for central planning where they control the market but there are too many people that have not taken part in the "rally" because they keep mixing up the economy and the markets. The markets will continue to march higher (and draw more people in) and eventually we will just shift to central planning taking over on another level but I don't want to change the topic too much.

    The thing is I realize the fed can't come out and say "Dammit people we rigged the market, so get in!" But that is what has happened. It's just so silly watching the author trying to perpetuate the idea that "the economy is substantially improving" while shouting any dissenting voices down. It's really funny actually.
    Feb 14, 2015. 06:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Never Left Us: The U.S. Economy And Stocks Will Grow Faster And Higher [View article]
    If you have read what I wrote you would see that there is no way I would be short SPY. Without getting too specific, I would say a smart portfolio today would be composed mostly index etf's that are long equities and UST's (maybe TLT). Something like that.

    It's not that I am eager to share my investment perspectives. I chose this forum to post a whole bunch on because I wanted to see if my original question up top (why can't we all just drop the narrative about the economy recovering and admit the market is rigged) would strike a nerve. It apparently did. Most people are not buying what the author is selling regarding the economy. That was refreshing to see. That does not mean you should stand in front of the freight train that is the market and get run over by it. Watching the author claim everyone that disagreed with him is either wrong or "negative" and needs an "attitude adjustment" only added to people's skepticism. That was good to see as well. If the author could have shown some humility or at least admitted that it's debatable he would have helped his case. Putting words like "UNQUESTIONABLE" just made him seem even more incorrect.
    Feb 14, 2015. 06:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Never Left Us: The U.S. Economy And Stocks Will Grow Faster And Higher [View article]
    But you just said you don't have other things to do? That's great about your son, I think. When you have something to contribute towards the subject at hand check in again. Peace.

    P.S "you can spend your time productively, learning, working, and winning." would be great advice for someone who got downsized 25 years ago and done nothing since.
    Feb 14, 2015. 04:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Never Left Us: The U.S. Economy And Stocks Will Grow Faster And Higher [View article]
    What he said ^^^
    Feb 14, 2015. 03:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Never Left Us: The U.S. Economy And Stocks Will Grow Faster And Higher [View article]
    I love how we have to all caps "unquestionably". It speaks volumes.
    Feb 14, 2015. 02:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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