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marketwatcher23

marketwatcher23
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  • Investors Got It Wrong: The Latest Jobs Report And Rising Interest Rates Are Reasons To Own Gold [View article]
    It does not even matter if they do. So what if they go with a 25 bp move. It will affect nothing. Everyone knows that any moves are just token moves so the fed can stick their "mission accomplished" sign in the ground next to the phony GDP/employment data
    Mar 9, 2015. 02:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Got It Wrong: The Latest Jobs Report And Rising Interest Rates Are Reasons To Own Gold [View article]
    Even if you were to believe that the fed truly intended an actual rate hike cycle to begin, how high could they get rates up with the rest of the world going NIRP and UST's being the collateral and life blood of this system?

    Besides If you put the 30yr at 4% tomorrow as an asset manager I'd sell half my equity book and lock it in. Good luck in stocks the minute bonds ever look attractive again.
    Mar 8, 2015. 06:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Got It Wrong: The Latest Jobs Report And Rising Interest Rates Are Reasons To Own Gold [View article]
    I hear you man. I used to be firmly in that camp. But after years of watching EM's not tethered to the USD get torched by the same inflation I used to believe was imminent here I have moved on to the camp of never planning on selling my PM's but playing the game as it is because Russia stepped up against the US and is getting annihilated and China has not said peep and is more than happy to use their USD chained currency to pick Russia's carcass away.
    Mar 8, 2015. 06:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Got It Wrong: The Latest Jobs Report And Rising Interest Rates Are Reasons To Own Gold [View article]
    Hebba I like the article because you have a balanced view of things and we all know the jobs report, as with much other data, is total bs. But, as you pointed out, the fed knows this as well. So while I hope you are right about gold, there is one asset out there that is becoming a screaming buy, and it's bonds, specifically UST's.

    UST's are the new phyz gold. Literally. The world craves them. There is a scarcity of them right now and once this mini push higher in yields is over, we will work our way down to the JGB and Bund yield levels, then lower. This will of course push stocks higher, as usual. So the dip in stocks is an opportunity as well.

    It's too bad about gold, maybe one day the sun will finally shine for it, but I don't see that day anywhere on the horizon. The paper market still rules the phyz world.
    Mar 8, 2015. 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thanks For The Corporate Bond Bubble, Fed [View article]
    You think the buybacks just started in February? This has been going on for years now. The best part is, as long as the fed keeps rates near/at zirp, it can go on for a long long time.

    I think Stockton is clueless and like many before him he will turn from perma bear to pissed off bull soon enough.

    The debt does not matter.
    Mar 6, 2015. 07:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Shuns Bogle, Increases International Exposure [View article]
    Bogle knows the real deal. He knows that people have managed to lose money throughout this major run since 2008 and he knows that most people are scared and don't trust the market. But he knows that it is totally and completely rigged and that is why we will never get more than a 10% dip again. But the 5-10% dips will continue to be created for entry points into SPY. Or in this case IVV.

    The fed can't force people into the index, but absent that, they will try to give the clearest signals it can, and Bogle is one of them. Buffet is another. Get in the index, and the fed will lift it 10-15% a year. But stop screwing around and losing money while they push it higher.
    Mar 5, 2015. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity outflows may be sign of a toppy market [View news story]
    "rates going up eventually is."

    I would encourage you to pull out the chart of the 30yr bond as far as you can. You may want to question that statement.
    Mar 5, 2015. 10:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • On the hour [View news story]
    this was a violent 2 day correction we just endured. Only those with true grit and brass cojones will be rewarded for stepping in and buying.
    Mar 5, 2015. 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thanks For The Corporate Bond Bubble, Fed [View article]
    Stockman still has not figured out that the debt will never be repaid and therefore does not matter. Give him another year and he will be recommending SPY.
    Mar 5, 2015. 09:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Shuns Bogle, Increases International Exposure [View article]
    "International holdings are a valuable diversifier in a balanced portfolio, giving shareholders exposure to other countries equity markets that are currently doing quantitative easing"
    Mar 5, 2015. 09:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity outflows may be sign of a toppy market [View news story]
    It's probably just a bunch of people who are taking gains in equities and looking for a pullback and when it does not come they will go right back in. No big thing.
    Mar 5, 2015. 08:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity outflows may be sign of a toppy market [View news story]
    There is no market.
    Mar 5, 2015. 06:29 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Raising Interest Rates Might Not Be As Crazy As Some Make It Seem [View article]
    "No, banks are making handsome profits as is. Raising interest rates will, if anything, reduce their profits. Customers can borrow less money as interest rates rise. When banks loan money, it is money that they "print" themselves, de novo. Banks are not constrained in lending by interest rates, the lower the rates, the more they can lend."

    I hear you. I think banks are doing just fine because all that QE money has been deposited on their balance sheets. That plus them having changed the laws so they can gamble with depositors money has really goosed profits.

    I disagree about "the lower the rates, the more they can lend" It sounds right in theory but any chart out there of money velocity says otherwise. Joe sixpack does not want another loan. Maybe if rates go negative and banks are willing to pay him to take a loan.
    Mar 3, 2015. 08:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Raising Interest Rates Might Not Be As Crazy As Some Make It Seem [View article]
    Hi David, in your view, is the point of raising rates to make banks more money?

    I understand your point above. I am not saying it will do much. I think the fed is trying to gain every bit of leverage that they can by raising rates. I don't think the net effect is much at all. But I also think the market is completely and totally rigged so to me this whole thing is neither here nor there.

    I agree with you that I don't think there is a problem that needs to be solved. I don't agree that the banks are lending in a healthy way. I believe most of the loans today from banks are subprime auto and student loans and other forms of debt that won't help the economy in the long run. But if we are to have a rising equity market it's important that there is no growth and no inflation. That's the breaks.
    Mar 3, 2015. 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Raising Interest Rates Might Not Be As Crazy As Some Make It Seem [View article]
    "So what precisely is the problem that needs to be solved by raising rates?"

    negative rates
    Mar 3, 2015. 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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