marketwatcher23

marketwatcher23
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  • Gundlach: Bull market for Treasurys to continue  [View news story]
    80 years includes the economic boom periods which created the middle class baby boomer generation followed by the debt fueled consumption economies of the 80's and 90's. That started popping in 2000 and the middle class is going belly up now. That phase is over. I am not saying taxes and health insurance etc etc won't continue to climb. But those things are deflationary by nature and so unless the almighty dollar breaks apart don't look for rates to turn around.
    Jan 4, 2015. 07:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gundlach: Bull market for Treasurys to continue  [View news story]
    I think you are seriously underestimating worldwide (and institutional) demand for UST's as well as the fact that the fed owns 46% of every UST with a maturity of 10yrs or more and they are not selling. The fed is doing the best they can with this nonsense talk of raising rates (which they very well may out of desperation) to keep the yield curve from completely imploding, but as Gundlach correctly observes, yields will still end up going down.

    As long as the debt goes up, yields will continue to go down.
    Jan 4, 2015. 07:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gundlach: Bull market for Treasurys to continue  [View news story]
    Yields have been falling for 3 decades, he says they will fall further and that is contrarian?
    Jan 3, 2015. 06:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ditching The 401(k)  [View article]
    I'm not saying you should have waited five years. I am simply saying that someone making 25k, especially if they are living on there on, has no shot at contributing anything significant towards retirement. If anything at all. I'm not even disputing that is not the medium income. I'm sure it is. We are heading back towards kings and serfs. Same as it ever was.
    Dec 29, 2014. 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ditching The 401(k)  [View article]
    That is all true but show me one Marge that has gotten in trouble so far. Marge has no idea what you are talking about and the people in charge of enforcing this stuff with marge have a tendency to watch....well other things on the internet than those they should be paying attention to.
    Dec 29, 2014. 02:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ditching The 401(k)  [View article]
    I'd love to see what percentage of those earning 26k a year have a 401k and out of those what the average account balance is in each age bracket.

    There is no way most of the private sector investing public will be able to save an appropriate amount of retirement money, if any at all, on those wages.

    We are not screwed though. There is no doubt society is heading towards a minimum income for all. Probably about 10-15 years from now.
    Dec 29, 2014. 02:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Retirees Buy When Others Are Fearful: Is Panic In The Oil Patch Giving Us That Buy Signal?  [View article]
    "Oil has stabilized here, the falling knives have stopped falling, and the strategy promulgated here has been vindicated nicely."

    Sorry George, but this is why you can't go spiking the football on the 2 yard line. The pain trade continues.
    Dec 29, 2014. 01:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ditching The 401(k)  [View article]
    Curmudgeon what is the realistic possibility of someone making 25k being able to contribute 8% of their pay towards anything.

    25k is just a ridiculous number when it comes to retirement planning. Depending on where you live I'd say the starting number has to be 50k in certain areas and 100k plus on the coasts before you can afford basic living and then start saving for retirement
    Dec 29, 2014. 12:48 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ditching The 401(k)  [View article]
    Sure that's true, but lets say you only stay a year or two and none of it vests. How are you worse off? A catch, to me anyway, implies that there is a downside. As far as the match goes, I don't see downside.
    Dec 29, 2014. 12:44 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ditching The 401(k)  [View article]
    How is the match a "catch"? They contribute free money, If you make it there a certain amount of years, it's yours. If you don't, you are no worse off for it. How is that a catch?

    The main problem with the 401k plan is Marge the HR lady does not mind Valic or some other fee laden garbage fund company buying her gift cards and taking her to lunch once a quarter in exchange for her screwing over her employees with an awful fund company instead of Vanguard. Someone needs to tell Marge to grow a conscience and buy her own damn lunch.
    Dec 29, 2014. 10:14 AM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: Energy Sector's Downward Revisions Continue Distorting S&P 500 Metrics  [View article]
    Exxon and Chevron etc have around 3% div yields. So there is an inherent bottom in those stocks where money will constantly come in to pick them up. Unless they have to reduce that div the stocks will probably hold up okay. Also this is probably a long term benefit for them as much of their competition will not get the same treatment from the market and will be obliterated leaving them with more market share. With that said I would not touch them.
    Dec 28, 2014. 11:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan approves $29B stimulus package  [View news story]
    who says they will? Debt does not matter anymore.
    Dec 28, 2014. 11:30 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why 0% Rates? Tech, Globalization And Emerging Markets (Not QE)  [View article]
    if you are anything other than a sovereign lender, you are correct. Also if you are not pegged to the dollar. This is why Venezuela and Argentina constantly blow up. Lack of dollars. Russia made a big deal about diversifying away from the USD and they are now in a serious jam.

    The canary in the coal mine is Japan. The Yen/USD has been selling off and has slight potential to turn into a sovereign bond market issue. So far though as their currency has old off their yields continue to drop. How counterintuitive is that? Inflation settling in bigtime and yet yields drop....

    Anyway if Japan did blow up it would actually force more money into USD based assets and cause our yields to plunge even further. This could go on for longer than most people on here would believe is possible. Welcome to bizarro world.
    Dec 28, 2014. 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should I Have High Yield (Junk) Bonds In My Portfolio?  [View article]
    You guys need to expand your horizons a bit. Look, the only actual threat to the markets at this point is actual, real economic growth. That's it. If we get that then we have a major problem. Wage increases lead to inflation which lead to rate hikes and we all know that can't happen with the debt.

    So as long as wages stagnate and decline and the middle class continues to get choked out by rising costs in healthcare and increased taxes to support the nanny state that takes away inflationary pressures and the markets can continue with multiple expansion and lowering yields which end up pushing markets higher.

    The market and the economy have a complete opposite correlation. Ther is no market, there is only the bernakyellen.
    Dec 28, 2014. 10:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should I Have High Yield (Junk) Bonds In My Portfolio?  [View article]
    just my two cents but I think what we are witnessing now is a clean break in the correlation between high yield and equities. Now that it is settling in on everyone that the fed is done with QE and that is causing liquidity movements within the market (dollar higher, commodities lower). That easy easy money trade is over and high quality credit will continue to perform well as will equities. Anything in credit and even equities that have a speculative nature to them will be taken out back and beaten with a vengeance.
    Dec 28, 2014. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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