Seeking Alpha

marketwatcher23

marketwatcher23
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View marketwatcher23's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Why 0% Rates? Tech, Globalization And Emerging Markets (Not QE) [View article]
    Anyone who can't overlap a chart of rising national debt levels against decreasing sovereign bond yields and conclude that interest rates have to constantly drop to finance constantly rising national debts needs help at this point.

    Automation and technology contribute to rising unemployment and the welfare state, which is financed by increasing the debt. That much is true.
    Dec 26, 2014. 05:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has QE3 Really Come To An End? [View article]
    "The purpose of QE was to lower rates. Primarily longer term rates."

    Yes, by buying all those long dated UST's they have been able to do that. It's so simple yet so complicated for some reason....
    Dec 25, 2014. 08:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has QE3 Really Come To An End? [View article]
    "They are required by banks, pension funds, insurance companies, etc. They also for the bedrock of global savings and international financing."

    Who set those requirements? I will give you a hint, it's the same people who own the long end of the bond market. Nice little insurance policy for them to make sure that whatever bonds they don't own are like oxygen to everyone else. Hence they have completely locked down the possibility of rates rising materially. Get it?????
    Dec 25, 2014. 08:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has QE3 Really Come To An End? [View article]
    Yes you are arguing with me because you keep posting your 14% number as if it has any relevance to what I am saying. I will ask you again, what percentage of bonds 10yrs or more in duration does the fed own? You obviously don't know but have conceded the point, which totally renders everything you have to say worthless.

    FWIW here is where you are confused...You think that my point that the fed is in control of long term rates is way off, yet you agree with me that the fed owns the majority of long dated treasuries.

    One of us absolutely does not understand the bond market, and it's very clear it's you.
    Dec 25, 2014. 08:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Has QE3 Really Come To An End? [View article]
    I am not saying that the fed is buying up all the bonds because the rest of the world is dumping them, I agree with you that the rest of the world wants as many bonds as they can get their hands on, precisely because they see what everyone except you can see, the fed OWNS the long end of the curve.

    If you think I am wrong then post some stats on how much of the bond market the fed owns in 10yr maturities or longer. When you either can't, or finally agree with me that the fed owns the long end of the curve, then we can both agree that yields are not going up. They are going down if anywhere, and that it's not really a problem, unless you are living off interest income from treasuries.
    Dec 24, 2014. 09:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ghosts Of LTCM And 2008 Collide - Putin Is Crushed [View article]
    Congrats to the Russian people for setting the bar so low for themselves.
    Dec 23, 2014. 03:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q3 GDP highest in 11 years [View news story]
    NIRP
    Dec 23, 2014. 09:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ghosts Of LTCM And 2008 Collide - Putin Is Crushed [View article]
    Don't worry about it. Goldman and JPM already cherry picked his successor and they will make sure the S&P quadruples again. It's all good.
    Dec 23, 2014. 09:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Is The Devil? Will Gilead Fall Or Soar In 2015? [View article]
    You are right that free market capitalism should rule the day but when we have a system rotted to the core with crony capitalism you can no longer trot that statement out as it was sold out a long time ago.
    Dec 23, 2014. 09:13 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has QE3 Really Come To An End? [View article]
    Dude, the article, and many others like it is correct. The fed now owns over 40% of every bond that has 10yr maturities or longer. My contention is that the Fed owns the LONG END of the bond market. Everything under 5yrs is bought by foreigners etc etc.

    My point is that by OWNING the LONG END of the bond market, the fed has made sure that interest rates cannot and will not rise.

    End of story.
    Dec 23, 2014. 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ghosts Of LTCM And 2008 Collide - Putin Is Crushed [View article]
    Obama is going to walk out on stage on his last day in 2016 and say "I quadrupled the S&P, unemployment is 0%, the U.S does not pay a penny of interest on 20 trillion in debt, and I crushed Putin" and drop the mic and walk off stage.
    Dec 23, 2014. 07:56 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Is The Devil? Will Gilead Fall Or Soar In 2015? [View article]
    The banks need to find a way into this market. Since the middle class is now priced out of housing maybe the banks can set up a $0 down 7% 30 year loan for the medication so instead of paying $90,000 for one treatment they can pay $350,000 instead, but over 30 years.
    Dec 23, 2014. 07:52 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Junk Bond Funds And Rising Interest Rates: Fact Or Fiction? [View article]
    First off I really appreciate the article and throwing my comment in there. To clarify my viewpoint and what I think is going to happen, for whatever it's worth...here it is.

    Notice I said the fed has exited stimulus (QE) and warned about reaching for yield. I did not say the fed will be raising rates. I don't think they will. Maybe on the short end they will try to nudge them up but especially on the ling end of the curve I just see rates continuing to flatten. So I don't see high yield blowing up because of rising rates. I see it blowing up because of deflationary forces in the bond market causing people to really start taking a close look at the ability of the issuer to make good (ie high yield energy). As liquidity continues to evaporate, financing will become much more difficult and the market will continue to turn on many speculative high yielders.

    This should send money out of these sectors and into investment grade muni's, corporates and especially treasuries and so those yields will continue to drop. It will also send money into equities. Especially companies who pay dividends, but again, even the equity dividends will be under the microscope and some will be spared and some punished.

    I don't see any sort of typical economic cycle playing out where the fed raises rates as we have seen in the past. The fed knows they can't do it and the market knows they can't do it. The 30yr UST at 3% looks like a big juicy steak. Especially if you are in Japan or Europe.
    Dec 22, 2014. 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Floating Rate Loans CEFs? [View article]
    The fed may raise rates next year but yields will continue to go down on the long end. Stay long the 30 year, it will continue to be the most profitable part of credit.
    Dec 22, 2014. 12:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has QE3 Really Come To An End? [View article]
    You have to do your own homework on this but your numbers are nowhere close to accurate. I just googled this, it's from last year but there are plenty of places to get the info...

    http://onforb.es/1zOmgOC

    I never said there was a problem with it. The fed owns most of the bond market and left some scraps for the banks who need UST's as collateral. That should ensure a constant bid under treasuries which should continue to flatten the yield curve and keep a bid under stocks and bonds. Rejoice, it's all good.
    Dec 22, 2014. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,080 Comments
1,932 Likes