Seeking Alpha

marketwatcher23

marketwatcher23
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View marketwatcher23's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Fed Funds Not So Easy: Major Implications For Stocks [View article]
    No no no go back and read the article. They care a ton

    "Right or wrong, Fed Chair Janet Yellen believes that the Fed can help struggling American families by keeping monetary policy highly accommodative"

    "I think Yellen is focused on total employment and wages. She wants those to rise."

    "I think she is more concerned with the absolute living standards of the poor and lower middle class than she is with income distribution per se"

    the best part is they are WILLING to risk blowing a bubble in the markets, note they have not done this yet, no bubble currently...

    "If this monetary stimulus means higher stock prices, so be it. Yellen is not going to short circuit the economic recovery and hoped for improvements in employment and wages in order to "preempt" the formation of asset bubbles."

    6 years later, QE up the wazoo...middle class and lower class in the dumper while we still "hope for improvements in employment and wages" and asset prices rocketing higher ever still....but their motivation is pure....
    Mar 22, 2015. 07:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Funds Not So Easy: Major Implications For Stocks [View article]
    Your answer to what I wrote was to avoid my point and claim I don't understand how QE works?

    I honestly don't understand how you arrive at your conclusions. What has the Bernakyellen done that actually illustrates that they are concerned about the living standards of the lower and middle class? Clearly QE was not intended to help them. Zirp did nothing for them either. So what do you put forth, that they have done, that you feel validates that you understand their motivation?
    Mar 22, 2015. 07:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Funds Not So Easy: Major Implications For Stocks [View article]
    "Unfortunately it won't happen until we reach investment euphoria from your average joe investor talking about their stock investment in the taxi cab or coffee shop"

    That is not necessarily true. It won't happen until the fed raises rates in a meaningful manner. Which is why Bernanke said you won't see that happen in his lifetime.
    Mar 21, 2015. 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Funds Not So Easy: Major Implications For Stocks [View article]
    "I think Yellen is focused on total employment and wages. She wants those to rise."

    "I think she is more concerned with the absolute living standards of the poor and lower middle class than she is with income distribution per se"

    If that is true then when the bernakyellen was QE'ing 85 billion a month why didn't she just send everyone a check? Why create 4 trillion and then have it flow through the banks in the form of loans?

    I don't think you understand her motivation at all. Her only motivation was to prop up the markets and she went with the wealth effect. But you had to already have pretty substantial assets and understand what the fed was doing.

    The middle and lower class have spent the last 6 years replacing the full time job with benefits they lost in 2008 with part time service sector work with crap benefits. That is why there has been no wage inflation.
    Mar 21, 2015. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Yellen Hikes Rates It Won't Be Due To Inflation [View article]
    LOL okay I will change it to Sheep23 if you change yours to Shmuck Exchange.

    Good luck with your awful articles and Neanderthal conclusions.
    Mar 19, 2015. 02:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Yellen Hikes Rates It Won't Be Due To Inflation [View article]
    wow man..I tried being nice. My position is that pretty much all your conclusions are wrong.

    Here is what the fed "needs" to do. Nothing. They need to do nothing. They don't need to raise rates. Maybe they will try to gently nudge them higher. Maybe not.

    The economy and the markets have no linkage at all. Two completely separate entities. If there actually is a linkage, it's that it is important that the economy never actually see any real growth, especially wage growth. Wage inflation is the feds worst enemy. So far, so good.
    Mar 19, 2015. 01:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Yellen Hikes Rates It Won't Be Due To Inflation [View article]
    Look, I say this to you with sincerity and honesty. You need to check your premises. The fed does not need to raise rates. The debt/gdp does not matter one bit. the bond market can't punish the fed because the fed owns enough UST's to prevent that.

    So the next logical conclusion is the US Dollar would get creamed in the currency market. Clearly that is not happening. Quite the opposite. The U.S could print a bunch more money and it still would not be an issue.

    What you seem to be struggling with is that the average American is getting punished by this system. You are correct. That does not mean it will change. I used to think it did. I was wrong. You are wrong. It is what it is.

    This is why we have the NFL and Beer and the kardashians. It was the same thing during the Roman empire. The worse things got the greater the bread and circuses were. The average American is willfully ignorant to the things that bother you, and the fed sure as hell is not going to rock the boat as long as that is the case.

    Best of luck to you, honestly.
    Mar 19, 2015. 11:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Yellen Hikes Rates It Won't Be Due To Inflation [View article]
    Well forget whether they are "helping" or not because it was never designed to help in the first place. If we agree that zirp created asset bubbles than raising rates in any meaningful way will only pop that bubble. Seeing how the fed has spent the last 5 plus years giving everyone no alternative to stocks and bonds, that means that Grandma now owns dividend stocks and CALPERS and every other pension fund is now invested. Most everyone is finally convinced the water is warm and they got in the pool.

    So now the fed "needs" to raise rates and wreak havoc on the very system they put together? Raising rates pops both stock and bond bubbles. You take away the wealth effect and it's 2008 tanks on the street scenario. I don't see why the fed "needs" to do that.
    Mar 19, 2015. 10:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Yellen Hikes Rates It Won't Be Due To Inflation [View article]
    Nice punt. You did not even take a shot at answering as to why you feel Yellen "needs" to raise rates. Cleary you have no answer. It was just another empty statement. Just what the marketwatcher suspected.
    Mar 19, 2015. 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Yellen Hikes Rates It Won't Be Due To Inflation [View article]
    "Conclusion

    The Fed may raise rates in the second half of 2015 or in 2016, but it most likely will not be due to inflationary pressures. In my opinion, zero percent rates have created asset bubbles but done little to improve the overall economy. "

    well if we are going to be less than cordial about it, I guess my point is your conclusion is clueless and worthless. Zero percent rates have created asset bubbles? That is revolutionary. Way to go, I have not heard that one a billion times. You say it's done little to improve the overall economy and then you admit it was not designed to help the economy, it was a wall street bailout.

    So back to you....what exactly is your point?

    and since you feel "Yellen needs to get rid of zero interest rates"

    Please tell us why she needs to. That would be interesting to hear.
    Mar 19, 2015. 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Yellen Hikes Rates It Won't Be Due To Inflation [View article]
    As long as the economy continues to deteriorate or at best stagnate, the equity markets should continue on the glide path higher as they have been. QE is no longer needed for that. The biggest threat to the fed is actual economic growth that forces them to have to actually raise rates. We can all agree that ain't happening.
    Mar 19, 2015. 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Yellen Hikes Rates It Won't Be Due To Inflation [View article]
    Of course it was. So it was wildly successful, and continues to be. I can't understand people who claim it was a failure because the economy has not responded. It was never about that.
    Mar 19, 2015. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Yellen Hikes Rates It Won't Be Due To Inflation [View article]
    How can you say QE was a complete waste of time? Honestly, if you believed that QE was ever about the economy you just got it wrong. QE was a wealth transfer mechanism. It was and is wildly successful if you have assets. The fed was never going to fix wage inflation issues, and they were never going to print money and send the pleebs a check. They made it clear they were going for asset inflation. Unfortunately the way to accomplish that was via ZIRP. If you had assets and either understood what was going on or were completely oblivious to it all and just stayed invested you did great. If you never had any real assets or you had a general distrust of the monetary system and therefore did not expose yourself to equities or bonds, well....you are screwed.

    I used to really let that bother me, because it really seems unfair. But that's life.
    Mar 19, 2015. 09:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things I Think I Think - Dollar Contagion And Dumb Markets [View article]
    The fed either knows they can't raise rates or the believe they finally have the market rigged in such a way that the believe they can raise them without setting off a crash. It's all good. Our monetary overlords have it covered.
    Mar 18, 2015. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things I Think I Think - Dollar Contagion And Dumb Markets [View article]
    I liked Schiff a lot but holy cow did he get this move wrong in yields and the almighty USD. If he is saying there is inflation right now I would feel very comfortably betting heavily against him.
    Mar 18, 2015. 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,296 Comments
2,458 Likes