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marketwatcher23

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  • Your Biggest Risk In The Market May Not Be What You Think [View article]
    You could have ignored the bull market entirely from 1980-2000 and averaged well over 5% in CD's and Bonds depending on how long you were willing to lock the money up for. Even from 2000-2008 a 5% plus return was achievable in bonds and CD's. On a risk adjusted basis it was probably a smarter move than owning stocks.

    That is the difference and that is why this is not a "bull market". This is a market built on people having no alternative to stocks. End of story.
    Feb 27, 2015. 07:02 AM | 37 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Never Left Us: The U.S. Economy And Stocks Will Grow Faster And Higher [View article]
    James can you please show where you are getting your data from on private credit creation replacing QE? It's interesting to hear that, but I am not sure I believe it.

    The issue I have is you seem to be trying to create a linkage between the markets and the economy. There is none. Consumer confidence data is a sham. Besides retail sales and consumer spending data (should we believe it) go completely against any link you are trying to form. There is no link between the economy and rising stock prices. None.

    Honest question here, to both the readers, and the author...why do we need to keep trying to justify the market by putting false narratives on the economy? Wages are stagnant, costs are rising, and a few bucks off at the pump ain't helping. Why can't we all say out loud that THE MARKET IS RIGGED. The fed has it rigged, and it's completely fine. They went with the wealth effect, so get in the market or get left behind. Forget about the real economy already.
    Feb 13, 2015. 08:12 AM | 36 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russian Roulette: Taxpayers Could Be On The Hook For Trillions In Oil Derivatives [View article]
    As a proud American I have major issues with this article. Democrats and Republicans came together with the spending bill and both parties agreed that it is my patriotic responsibility as a taxpayer to allow the banks to gamble with my deposits and reap the benefits. As well as pay me 0% interest on said deposits while charging me 18% interest on my credit card. Should they gamble and lose my deposits it again is my patriotic duty to bail the banks out with every last dollar I have so they can keep their bonus structure.

    The key is to make sure I always have a beer and there is always a football game on that I can watch while following the kardashians on twitter
    Dec 21, 2014. 12:06 PM | 32 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Never Left Us: The U.S. Economy And Stocks Will Grow Faster And Higher [View article]
    Euroman I am a permabear by nature and I don't see a tipping point. The irony of all this is that the one tipping point that I could see would be if the author was actually correct. If the economy was substantially recovering organically then the fed would have to react to actual wage growth and underlying inflation and materially raise interest rates. If that were to happen I think it would seriously mess up all the financial engineering that has been done. Fortunately I believe that is about as far from reality as anything and so it is not a threat.

    The other tipping point would be if the masses woke up and grew a brain and forced their monetary overlords to send these digitally created dollars out to them in the form of real checks instead of depositing these trillions on bank balance sheets and allowing the banks to loan them out in the form of student loan and auto loan debt etc.

    But this is America and we have beer and the NFL and the kardashians and as long as you have an obamaphone that should be enough to keep the crowd docile and ignorant.

    So btfd because this may go on and on.
    Feb 13, 2015. 10:14 AM | 28 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Never Left Us: The U.S. Economy And Stocks Will Grow Faster And Higher [View article]
    James as I said elsewhere on here, the credit created has been primarily in student loans and garbage auto loans.

    The data (commodity deflation/retail sales/Baltic dry etc etc) argue against everything you are putting forth. The stock market is connected to financial engineering not financial conditions.

    To say the economy is substantially improving and calling it a fact does not make it so. It actually just proves you can't back it up.

    The fed has not only created no alternative to stocks via QE/ZIRP but they are also active participants in bidding up the market. Investors should ignore that at their own risk. That is the QE effect on the markets. That is a fact.
    Feb 13, 2015. 09:52 AM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ditching The 401(k) [View article]
    How is the match a "catch"? They contribute free money, If you make it there a certain amount of years, it's yours. If you don't, you are no worse off for it. How is that a catch?

    The main problem with the 401k plan is Marge the HR lady does not mind Valic or some other fee laden garbage fund company buying her gift cards and taking her to lunch once a quarter in exchange for her screwing over her employees with an awful fund company instead of Vanguard. Someone needs to tell Marge to grow a conscience and buy her own damn lunch.
    Dec 29, 2014. 10:14 AM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: A Bright Shining Lie? [View article]
    John the banks don't money launder and did not manipulate LIBOR so there is no reason to suspect foul play.

    Oh...wait.

    Anyway you are right. GLD is a myth. Gold is the real deal.
    Apr 18, 2013. 04:27 PM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When To Worry About Inflation [View article]
    "There is no wage inflation"

    Correct. However that is quite the conundrum when food, energy, healthcare, education etc. etc. etc. costs are skyrocketing.

    The bad news is people can't afford anything. The good news is we have determined that your salary should remain consistent....ensuring your inablity to afford anything. Welcome to the new economy.
    Feb 8, 2013. 06:00 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • False Hope: Low Rates, Write-Offs Make Americans Richer By Default [View article]
    How about this solution. All federal workers take a 30% pay cut and a 50% cut in pension and entitlements. Wall street banks have to go back to the good old days where they were just banks. In effect, giving them similar cuts in pay. Health insurance gets revamped so that your individual premium is based on your individual health (with help to those with pre existing conditions). Social security starts at age 75 for all those 35 and under because people should not spend the last 25 years of their life being non productive in society. Unemployment insurance exists but you can't sit on your ass and collect a check. A list of chores (clean up your neighborhood etc) have to be completed each week or you don't get your weekly stipend. People have to all chip in.

    I could go on and on but if people really want to fix things they have to actually cough something up.

    Since that will never happen let's get back to our original programming. Today and everydays show is "printing money to pay for crap until the currency blows up".
    Jan 1, 2013. 09:36 AM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
    Big crowds small exits. Same as it ever was.
    Jan 24, 2013. 06:36 PM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Never Left Us: The U.S. Economy And Stocks Will Grow Faster And Higher [View article]
    Central banks are active participants in the markets. Huge active participants. They control the big banks and it has been made clear to the big banks that they are not to do anything stupid. What we see today when we are looking at has zero resemblance to markets past. The market is completely rigged. The economy has zilch to do with it.

    The reason why this author and CNBC and every economist would never dare admit it is because it would immediately render analysis and economists useless.

    But the fed has things on autopilot and has spent 5 years training everyone that if you are lucky enough to get a 5% dip you better throw every single dime you have at it, or you are guaranteed to underperform SPY and your clients will find that one trade of SPY for $7.95 is better than you.
    Feb 13, 2015. 09:23 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • False Hope: Low Rates, Write-Offs Make Americans Richer By Default [View article]
    bbro those who wear a smile for an umbrella get their ass soaking wet. Reality is neither positive nor negative. It just is what it is. Hedge accordingly.
    Jan 1, 2013. 09:28 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anti-austerity Syriza set to sweep Greek elections [View news story]
    How is it a socialist fairy tale? Germany controls the purse strings as long as they are on the euro so there is no hope and changQE for them. They leave the euro and default on their debt however and I will be one of many sheeple to book my trip to the greek islands and shower them with precious USD.
    Jan 25, 2015. 01:36 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Where Are We Now? [View article]
    show me any other market where demand goes parabolic while price drops...oh and throw in lack of supply.

    When you get hungry do you go out and buy pictures of food?

    There is a big difference between physical and paper, and people are going to find that out at some point soon enough.
    Apr 18, 2013. 11:19 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Hyperinflation Is A Myth (And What It Means For Gold Prices) [View article]
    The government of India is doing everything in it's power to limit it's citizens ability to buy gold, which they view as money and an inflation edge...

    So you are pro government oppression against citizens trying to protect themselves from profligate government decisions and the consequences.

    Good on you for admitting it!
    Feb 12, 2013. 09:48 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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