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marketwatcher23

marketwatcher23
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  • Genworth Financial Is Irrationally Priced For Bankruptcy [View article]
    Just my 2 cents but if it were me I would cancel my policy. Most likely this rate increase/benefit reduction scenario will not be the only one. the cost of care will rise and either you will be responsible for massive premium increases or benefit reductions. and this from a company whose stock is close to falling under $5.

    I don't know your personal situation but if you have close loved ones etc the other thing to consider is to deed your house and assets over and hope to make it past the 5 yr look back and then deal with medacaid.
    Sep 4, 2015. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 45%+ Crash Could Be Coming For The Market - Here's Why [View article]
    The problem is we had a tech bubble burst in 2000, followed by a housing crash in 2007, followed by a market crash in 2008. So that is a pretty crashy 10 year span. Then we had stocks go straight to the moon since 2009 so everyone feels like it has to be another bubble about to pop.

    The difference was in the last 2 market crashes you could move over and get yourself a 5 year treasury or corporate bond or CD and just hang out and make 4-5%. The fed took that off the shelf this time to make sure nobody leaves the casino.
    Sep 3, 2015. 05:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genworth Financial Is Irrationally Priced For Bankruptcy [View article]
    "I just got notified of a 25% rate increase on my LTC policy starting next year. It seems to me I'm getting punished for the poor management of the balance sheet by GNW."

    25% isn't bad. I have seen some increases of 40%. That's not exclusive to GNW. You are getting punished because they mispriced the policy originally and now they either want you out (preferable) or they will raise the cost 25% a year until you drop the policy later on (hopefully before you have a claim). Heads they win, tails you lose. Worst case scenario is you somehow manage to keep paying the increases and finally end up with a claim and right around that time they go under.
    Sep 3, 2015. 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Can I Find Safe Income For Retirement? [View article]
    "You want a steady income. But you demand safety - the lowest possible chance of a permanent impairment of capital. So you won't simply overpay in order to construct the appearance of steady income. So, what are you supposed to do?"

    drop dead

    sincerely,

    Bernakyellen
    Sep 1, 2015. 09:04 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 45%+ Crash Could Be Coming For The Market - Here's Why [View article]
    Here is the thing I think is important. The fed, thanks to QE1,2 and 3 plus twist, owns pretty much the whole long end of the curve. So the bond market is going to behave. As long as that is the case there is really nowhere else to go. Sure you can go to cash, but at some point that money comes back in. I think if you are going to be in the market you have to just have confidence and feel really positive, that the fed has it rigged.
    Sep 1, 2015. 07:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A 45%+ Crash Could Be Coming For The Market - Here's Why [View article]
    I don't see how the fed could spend all year prepping for a rate hike and turn on a dime and do QE. I could see the ECB coming out and expanding their QE to include equities since no one would sell them any bonds.
    Sep 1, 2015. 06:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A 45%+ Crash Could Be Coming For The Market - Here's Why [View article]
    Well seeing as the dollar got stronger and gold got weaker after QE2 I'd say it might just be better to stick with stocks.

    Also, QE was done to lower rates, so why do it now?
    Sep 1, 2015. 06:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 45%+ Crash Could Be Coming For The Market - Here's Why [View article]
    well it's been about a 100 years and as long as you either bought the dip or did not sell when the dip happened you came out okay. Besides, looking at bonds today, they were no help. There is nowhere else to go.
    Sep 1, 2015. 05:32 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fischer Keeps Rate Hike Door Open, But Shouldn't [View article]
    They have no control over underlying inflation or deflation and can't affect economic activity. They have some tools to try to respond to what is going on. The only thing they can do right now since fiscal policy is absent is try to use the markets to combat what is going on in the real economy. So step 1 is prop up the equity markets at all costs to preserve the wealth effect. Step 2 to is keep everyone from thinking step 1 will never work and piling into bonds. So the fed will try their best to burn everyone piling into treasuries and send them back to SPY.
    Sep 1, 2015. 08:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fischer Keeps Rate Hike Door Open, But Shouldn't [View article]
    Jeebus Age Christmas Lance. Wake the hell up. The fed is raising rates to fend off deflation. Read that again. Let it sink into your thick skull. Stop reading the narrative and snap out of it.

    DEFLATION is what is causing the fed to raise rates. They saw everyone starting to wake up and realize that this is a deflationary tsunami and everyone would be THRILLED to get 2% on a 10yr bond. So they must raise rates in attempt to stop everyone from piling into treasuries and avoid the Japan scenario where yields implode as equity markets implode. They will prop up stawks and scare people out of bawnds. This is not that hard. Your eyes just need to be open.
    Aug 31, 2015. 09:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does The Federal Reserve Have Any Responsibility For The Economy? [View article]
    To answer the question, the fed has no responsibility for the economy. It does not control technological advancements and automation. What it does take responsibility for is the inflationary response to the massive deflation the economy is suffering from technology and automation and corporations always eager to sacrifice the middle class at the alter of profits.

    The fed's responsibility is to keep this rigged market rising and rising and substituting the wealth effect in place of an economy. That's all they can do. It's either that or the walking dead.
    Aug 31, 2015. 09:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed's Incredible Stock-Market Levitation Of Recent Years Is Failing [View article]
    My young brother asked me what happens after we die. I told him we get buried under a bunch of dirt and worms eat our bodies. I guess I should have told him the truth--that most of us go to Hell and burn eternally--but I didn't want to upset him.

    – Jack Handey Deep Thoughts
    Aug 28, 2015. 04:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed's Incredible Stock-Market Levitation Of Recent Years Is Failing [View article]
    If I were the fed, and had the market completely rigged, but also understood that the market had to resemble a real market, but not risk screwing up the great btfd behavioral finance experiment, you know what I would do? I would engineer a fairly decent size correction. I'd make it happen fast though. So fast that most people would either not notice it or not be able to react in time. Then I'd ramp the market right back up. Maybe not all the way, but enough for it to be over and forgotten quickly.

    I wonder when the best time to do that would be. Probably a time of year when most are not around or paying attention. How about late August? Then I'd set up a nice little end of year rally and continue on cruise control and put a "mini 1987" in the books.
    Aug 28, 2015. 03:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fischer: Sept. move less likely, but hikes are coming [View news story]
    This headline is misleading. He said they definitely could hike rates in September and that they could definitely not hike rates. He then firmly decided on pizza for lunch but instead opted for pizza sauce and cheese on dough placed in the oven.

    Very trade worthy info.
    Aug 28, 2015. 01:12 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Long Will The Deflation-Driven Stock Market Correction Last? [View article]
    They have waited this long because they did not want rates/USD to rise when they finally announce it.
    Aug 27, 2015. 12:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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