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marketwatcher23

marketwatcher23
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  • Fed Stands Pat, Stocks And Income In The FTG Retiree Portfolio Soar To Record Heights [View article]
    I appreciate the anecdotes. This time around I think we are dealing with an opposite scenario of the 70's. The fed actually does need to raise rates, but as a way to combat everyone front running them and buying bonds and sending yields negative. They are fighting a massive wave of deflation. 100 mil people out of the labor force, wage stagnation for those left, and a strong dollar.
    Jul 31, 2015. 06:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Stands Pat, Stocks And Income In The FTG Retiree Portfolio Soar To Record Heights [View article]
    I'm not going to make a big thing about it but " Prices can easily go up on these types of items, and consumers finding them not to be necessary can either not buy them (causing price to go down), substitute other similar items that cost less (causing price to go down), use less of the items (causing price to go down), decrease the frequency of purchase of those items, to name a few..

    The examples you gave are all the deflationary responses to essential items going up in price that I am illustrating.
    Jul 31, 2015. 05:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Stands Pat, Stocks And Income In The FTG Retiree Portfolio Soar To Record Heights [View article]
    "I believe he may have intended to say that since consumers would always buy the necessities, they would have less left over to pay for other goods, thereby pushing those prices down"

    That is exactly how I meant it and I don't see how, with the absence of wage gains, which today illustrated there are none, consumers could have more to spend of non essential items when they are paying more for necessities (and I am not even including the biggies like health insurance etc). Hence, it's deflationary.

    I don't see how you could feel differently, but please explain if you do.
    Jul 31, 2015. 04:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Stands Pat, Stocks And Income In The FTG Retiree Portfolio Soar To Record Heights [View article]
    Food and energy price increases are by nature deflationary, since they are necessities. People will forsake spending elsewhere in order to make sure they have food and energy.
    Jul 31, 2015. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Stands Pat, Stocks And Income In The FTG Retiree Portfolio Soar To Record Heights [View article]
    From December 2014:

    Author’s reply » market watcher,

    "This trend has been ongoing for 4 days since I wrote this article. 3 of the 4 names quoted above went up nicely again today, with LGCY up 7.5%.

    This is not a one hit wonder, or 2 day pop. WTI oil rose 6.25% by the close today. Oil has stabilized here, the falling knives have stopped falling, and the startegy promulgated here has been vindicated nicely."

    Regarding Linn specifically you said "Linn Energy and Breitburn Energy are hedged for the vast majority of their production through and including 2016, at upwards of $91 per barrel.

    Certainly, these hedges, along with any capex maintenance and cost cutting measures will keep these distributions flowing. And if this premise is somehow undercut by unforeseen market forces, companies like LINE and BBEP could slash their distributions in half and still leave today's investor at today's prices sitting with 13.5% distributions, after any such cut. This really wouldn't be the end of the world"

    Oops

    I guess I just don't understand your overall position in this sector. If you are a DGI investor, in which case you have so many choices available in less interest rate sensitive sectors like healthcare etc, this sector makes no sense, or you are trading falling knives and doubling down.
    Jul 31, 2015. 02:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Stands Pat, Stocks And Income In The FTG Retiree Portfolio Soar To Record Heights [View article]
    George with all due respect I remember you pitching Linn Energy and BBEP etc when they were 100% higher.

    I think the reason you are having trouble in this market is because you are still hitched to the idea that inflationary pressures somehow still exist. They don't. They are non factor. It's deflation that is the issue and it's why we are nowhere near entering any sort of traditional rate hike cycle. Wage data this morning confirmed this overwhelmingly.
    Jul 31, 2015. 01:29 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retired Investors Don't Buy Bonds Until? [View article]
    "Chuck proved hands down that even marginal DG stocks beat bonds hands down over the last 20 years"

    really? If you bought VWESX (Vanguard Long Term Corporate bond fund) your 15yr avg rate of return was 7.5%. If you bough the Vanguard dividend growth fund (VDIGX) your 15yr avg return was 6.36%.

    How exactly was it proven "hands down"?
    Jul 29, 2015. 08:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Return Of Deflation? [View article]
    Leo this all comes back to the Dollar. Don't worry about debt. Debt does not matter, well sovereign debt anyway. The problem going forward that is driving the deflationary forces is that automation is destroying more jobs than can be created. The fed can manipulate the NFP figures to say whatever they want but 100 mil people out of the labor force is all that matters.

    This trend will continue and the fed will continue to fight this massive deflationary monster by constantly driving up equity prices. Luckily for the U.S, capital is fleeing the rest of the world and scrambling to be in anything USD denominated. Housing, equities, treasuries etc etc. Eventually there will be a moment where the income inequality argument become so overwhelming that politicians will have to institute some sort of guaranteed minimum income for each citizen. That is not here yet, but it's coming. In the meantime, grab some 3x Spy and enjoy the ride.
    Jul 29, 2015. 06:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retired Investors Don't Buy Bonds Until? [View article]
    I am assuming he means total return, not coupon, although in all fairness I did not look.
    Jul 29, 2015. 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retired Investors Don't Buy Bonds Until? [View article]
    I prefer equities over fixed income from here on out but "with rates as low as they are today, logic would dictate that the direction of interest rates is more likely to be higher than lower going forward" has been a losing statement for decades now.
    Jul 29, 2015. 11:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Return Of Deflation? [View article]
    I will check it out today. What I am saying is the fed actually needs to hike to try to hold off the deflationary forces that are taking hold. They know full well that it's not inflation, it's deflation, that they are battling. They actually need to prop rates up to avoid nirp.

    Agreed with you completely that they don't want the dollar soaring. That is why they are dragging out this one rate hike so much. They want the market to be adjusted in advance so nothing funky happens when they make their one and done hike.
    Jul 29, 2015. 08:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Return Of Deflation? [View article]
    Leo the fed has to raise rates. They need to avoid Nirp. That is a must. They don't need a full on rate hiking cycle. But they do need to make sure everyone does not pile on and send yields negative.
    Jul 28, 2015. 08:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Return Of Deflation? [View article]
    This article is spot on and the result will be equities continuing to scream to new all time high's. The fed desperately wants to pull off one rate hike so they can stick their mission accomplished sign in the ground for the Obama administration and then spend the next 5 years not raising rates but jawboning about the possibility. Stay invested.
    Jul 28, 2015. 02:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Gold Reserves: A Strong Dose Of Reality [View article]
    "If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. Also, if you rig the market, they will come".

    - Bernakyellen
    Jul 20, 2015. 08:49 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Gold Reserves: A Strong Dose Of Reality [View article]
    I like to argue with this author about how he views things, but reality is reality and his first bullet point about China is absolutely correct. Anyone seeing things otherwise is deluding themselves. Give it another decade and PM's will be completely erased from the memories of the mouth breathers walking around the mall buying icrap on their iphone. It's all about the USD.
    Jul 20, 2015. 07:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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