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  • In This Put-Up-Or-Shut-Up Year, MELA Sciences Should Succeed With Its Launch Of MelaFind [View article]
    Informative article. If you listen to the Needham presentation, MELA devices currently cost $35,000 each, so they loose $25,000 per device. Assume they place 150 1st qtr '13 and ramp up so that installed base is 1,000 units by 12/31/13 (my rough estimates based on current placement rates), that is equal to a $25 million shortfall from sales for 2013. Further assume that for 2013, that devices only produce roughly half of co estimates, or approx 1,000 scans/yr/device, which equals $50,000 scan revenue per device, or approx revenues to co for 2013 of $25 million (assuming an average installed base of 500 devices throughtout 2013.)

    If MELA can achieve this placement rate and a scan rate equal to only 1,000 scans/yr per device, they should be very close to BE cashflow by year-end 2013. I see the real risk/variable here is how often the device is used on average per year and the resultant recurring scan revenue to the company.
    Disclosure: No position yet....still evaluating. Chart is dreadful.
    Jan 28, 2013. 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme A Buy At Current Levels For The Short And Long Term [View article]
    Could you address their competitive other companies that are trying to develop similar products from algae? Thx
    Jan 28, 2013. 05:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allied Nevada: Buying Gold At $170 Per Ounce [View article]
    I have always viewed this stock as expensive relative to other opportunities, even at current prices. ANV's Operating Cash Flow (OCF) for 2013 will approx $230 million using your more conservative case (which I view as realistic), which is still has a mkt cap/OCF ratio over 10X. Although much smaller, look at gold miner BRD for example, or silver miner AUNFF (both with significant production growth prospects in safe jurisdictions) with Mkt Cap/OCF ratios based on 2013 production and cost estimates under 3X.
    Jan 27, 2013. 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rubicon Mining: A Speculative Growth Play And Acquisition Candidate [View article]
    thanks, but you failed to mention the pending lawsuit as a risk. Your assessment?
    Dec 29, 2012. 07:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment