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ashailes

ashailes
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  • Will The Plunge In Oil Crash Markets? [View article]
    If oil stays low, the broader market interprets this as a sign of low demand, poor infrastructure to support economic growth in the face of cheap energy, and also a stressor on energy companies.

    If oil goes up, it will be because of supply disruptions which are implicitly volatile and are not a marker of economic growth. Therefore, if oil goes up, we can expect to see even further contraction of the broader market. I think the market is effed either way in the current scenario.
    Dec 15, 2014. 02:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC has no target price [View news story]
    Low oil prices are hurting broader market because of some idea that this is a reflection of decreased demand or poor infrastructure to support growth in the face of high oil supply.

    If oil prices increase, it will be because of a shortage of supply, which will not be an indicator of economic growth. Therefore, I've reworked my initial analysis. The market will go down as oil goes down, and will NOT rebound with a rebound in oil prices, IMO. Therefore, I am now waiting only for the oil bottom to get back in, as I am also short oil with DWTI. I've closed my major other equity position in anticipation of a significant backlash against the broader market.
    Dec 15, 2014. 01:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC has no target price [View news story]
    I look at it this way:
    1) OPEC has no price target, prices continue to free fall, supplier nations are in disarray because budgets are eff'd, and so they either:
    a) cut production in which case oil goes up, or
    b) country infrastructure collapses, internal civil war breaks out, and again, oil
    shoots up again
    2) prices continue to free fall, but supplier nations never go into disarray. They weather the storm, until prices rebound in which case all countries who have become comfortable with low prices and increased demand will be left holding the bag
    3) prices continue to free fall, supplier nations don't go into disarray, but prices never rebound. In this case, oil flows freely literally. Then, literally every other stock I am holding should bounce because costs decrease, consumer sentiment goes up, we spend. And, if oil flows freely on the curve you will see demand ratchet up from industrializing nations, e.g. India, Indonesia, Thailand, every country in Africa, China, etc.

    Also need to consider that right now Indian economy is dampened by high oil prices. In fact, their economic boom in early 2000 literally came to a screeching halt with increase in oil prices. Now with oil prices back down again, Indian reliance on oil will only increase and demand will ratchet up.

    Bottom line is this: Oil is a resource which is 1) limited, 2) necessary for power, 3) the lifeblood of economic suppliers. There is zero possibility that the decrease in price is sustainable. The only question is how long speculators can sustain the drop in prices.

    I am LONG UWTI. And I will continue to add to my position every time it drops by 10%.
    Dec 14, 2014. 06:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil tumbles to five-year low [View news story]
    OPEC increases output --> prices drop --> oil demand shoots up AND fracking stalls --> OPEC cuts output drastically --> we are all screwed.
    Dec 7, 2014. 09:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo: Why I'm Buying In (Finally) [View article]
    Does Yahoo price reflect a certain expectation of earnings from Alibaba this Tuesday?
    Nov 1, 2014. 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo: Why I'm Buying In (Finally) [View article]
    YHOO call options strike price 50 expiring on Nov 22, purchased at 0.20. Any thoughts on whether this is going to hit 50 in 19 trading days...?
    Oct 28, 2014. 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Yahoo Has 20% Upside By Year End [View article]
    What impact will Alibaba earnings release have on the immediate price changes? This is the biggest catalyst for YHOO in the remaining year. Therefore, if we are to see a 20% upside, I would think it should happen very close in proximity to the catalyst. After that, YHOO will likely dip down as volume will decrease. I expect YHOO to drop down the week following BABA's earnings release.
    Oct 25, 2014. 11:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marissa Mayer Knows What Yahoo Needs, Critics Have No Clue [View article]
    MM does know what she is doing: http://bit.ly/ZPrywB

    Oh captain, my captain.
    Oct 6, 2014. 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Should Buy A Stake In Snapchat, The Sooner The Better [View article]
    Hong Kong shares are up. Although BABA trades in the US, and not HK, the same drivers which pushed HK shares up may positively influence BABA (e.g. the prospect of stability in HK in the midst of the current protests). I would expect YHOO shares to similarly climb as YHOO now appears to be moving in unison with BABA.
    Oct 5, 2014. 11:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Should Buy A Stake In Snapchat, The Sooner The Better [View article]
    That's the real question. I hypothesize that talks are under way and a price is being negotiated. Let's see what the next 24 hours does for us.
    Oct 5, 2014. 06:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Should Buy A Stake In Snapchat, The Sooner The Better [View article]
    True. It is possible that they could decide to invest 2 or 3 billion down the road. I don't necessarily advocate such a move though.
    Oct 5, 2014. 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Should Buy A Stake In Snapchat, The Sooner The Better [View article]
    Probably early investors have an option to invest more later. That would give them an "in" that others may not have to see the direction Snapchat is taking and then re-up their investment.
    Oct 5, 2014. 04:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Should Buy A Stake In Snapchat, The Sooner The Better [View article]
    I think that Monday morning will be interesting. With YHOO effectively buying out MessageMe, and Snapchat investment near, multiple activist investors calling out YHOO board and Softbank making acquisitions and looking for entry into the US market, I will be surprised if we don't see some uplifting news Monday. Every piece is in play on the board...
    Oct 5, 2014. 04:06 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Should Sell Yahoo [View article]
    Thinking about this further, I would think that any activist investor or suitor would want to make a move before earnings are released on Oct. 21st. Here's my line of logic:
    1) Suppose that the board releases great news. Maybe they decide to return money back to shareholders, or find some amazing buy that everyone is totally pumped about. This will undoubtedly pump up the value of the stock and activist investor or suitor will either lose their chance or be forced to pay higher premium. Therefore, they want to make a move before the rest of the market has a chance to react.

    2) Suppose that the board releases bad news. They are going to waste a ton of money on something that shareholders are going to be down on. Then the per share value goes down. But by then, it may already be too late and the board may have moved on the purchase. In that case, suitor or activist may decide it's no longer worth pursuing YHOO.

    3) Suppose that the board releases bad news. They are going to waste money and shareholders are going to be down on it. The per share value goes down. But activist investor or suitor thinks they can turn things around before the actual bad news is executed. By then though, the writing should already be on the wall and the YHOO board should already be aware that this is indeed a bad move and so, "in a perfectly logical world" they would decide not to release the bad news anyway.

    4) Suppose that the board releases neutral news. If this were possible, it would be the worst possible scenario - YHOO would be stuck sideways. However, I'm convinced there is no such thing as neutral news for this stock at this time. Either YHOO releases information or it doesn't at the time of earnings. This news will necessarily have a reaction, if not for any other reason than the shareholders are desperately waiting some type of plan.

    Overall, I am under the impression that an activist or suitor will make a move before earnings are published. I hold out of the money calls expiring Oct 10, Oct 18, and Nov 22. I may re-up on out of the money Oct 18th calls for cheap. It may depend on people's reaction to this post.
    Oct 5, 2014. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Should Sell Yahoo [View article]
    Where does everyone see this opening Monday morning? Up, down, or sideways?
    Oct 5, 2014. 12:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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