Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange
Money Metals Exchange provides the latest precious metals news for savvy, self-reliant investors who want to invest in gold, silver & other precious metals.
Wolf Richter is the founder and CEO of Wolf Street Corp. He has 20 years of C-level operations and finance experience, including turnaround situations and startups. He lived in five foreign countries and traveled to 100 others on all continents. Currently in San Francisco.
Brad Lamensdorf, a seasoned money manager and market strategist, is the editor of The Lamensdorf Market Timing Report, a newsletter designed to help investors improve performance via market timing by assessing the environment of the stock market using a variety of technical, fundamental and sentiment-oriented tools from powerful independent research firms. Many investors mechanically enter and depart the market without a true “game plan.” Studies have shown that retail investors, in particular, are very poor market timers, tending to invest at or near market peaks and sell at or near market lows. The newsletter is designed to provide risk parameters for both professional and retail investors around the short-term stock market environment, giving subscribers better insight about when to allocate assets into or out of the equity markets.
Lamensdorf, a frequent guest commentator and analyst on major business networks including CNBC, CNN and Fox Business News, also serves as a Portfolio Manager and Principal of Ranger Alternative Management LP, a sub-advisor to the Advisor Shares Ranger Equity Bear Exchange Traded Fund (NYSE: HDGE). In this role, he conducts top-down technical evaluations of broader market liquidity, sentiment and breadth to help identify short and intermediate-term market trends, manage exposure and mitigate risk. HDGE was launched in 2011 and is the first and sole actively managed, short-only ETF in existence.
Lamensdorf, also has managed investment portfolios for the Hughes family and acted as principal of Tarpon Partners, managing a long/short fund that was up more than 150% gross over six years. Earlier in his career, he was as an equity trader/market strategist for Taylor and Company, the Bass brothers’ trading arm, co-managing a short-only strategy in a derivative format with notional exposure. He also served as the in-house market timing strategist for the entire internal and external network of Bass managers.
A lifelong student of the markets, speculator, and investor, decades of experience have forged Adam into a hardcore contrarian. He believes in buying low when others are afraid, then later selling high when others are brave. He founded the financial-market research company Zeal LLC, and continues to write acclaimed weekly and monthly subscription newsletters.
Somewhere between disaster and "more of the same" is the world we all live in today, and it may go on in this same state for our lifetimes. No black swan, no collapse, no implosion of the Republic. Because there is no knowing I have given up trying to know or predict.
I have one goal. Survival at a modest level under any foreseeable future.
Let it be noted, I am a tiny investor.
If all my Shearson Lehman deals hadn't gone south, I'd be a medium small investor.
Now I trust no one.
So. Really big companies. Really good divi histories. Really broad diversification.
Buy and hold. Usually.
Gold buried in my sister's yard. Cash under the mattress. Food in the basement. And a full expectation that we shall see a blistering correction before 2020. But, no telling.
Let's talk about the big companies. I like big, strong and smart.
I want a dividend that has history, a future, and a present.
I want, five years from today, all investments made today to be yielding at least 5% based on cost.
The higher today's yield, the lower the dividend growth rate can be. So I like the "Chowder Rule." Some examples of stocks in this category (I think) are T, SO, DUK, VZ, D, AEP, and so on. Based on my cost basis.
The other extreme are a companies whose dividend growth rate leads to a reasonable expectation that it will yield 5% in five years. WMT, MCD, KMB, CL, EMR, TGT, and JNJ all are of the type. More or less, as of this writing. They will have their ups and downs. Bought right, in general, they should fit the bill.
My third favorite category are resource oriented companies, mostly oil, whose history and business fit with my goals. OXY, COP, CVX, XOM, RDS, FCX, and BHP come to mind.
These three kinds of companies represent my "core" investments. Outside the core, about 10% of the portfolio is more adventurous.
To round out the stable with some diversity I also own some REITs; O, ADC, OHI.
I also hold a very small portfolio of energy related companies like LINE, VNR, etc.
And yes, I do own little tiny positions in a few gold and silver resources. While I fully expect metals to break below the floor they are forming here in late January, 2014, but I hold them as a little insurance.
No position is over 5% of the portfolio value. Oils are overweighted on purpose as a group, perhaps foolishly, since oil may see a decline this year. Most positions are 2-3% of the total.
I try and follow Chowder and Carnevale here on SA, and wish I had gotten the divi bug sooner in life, so I preach it ofter to others. As the markets unfold, I may of may not prove to have the mettle to be a buy and hold investor.
Michael A. Gayed, CFA, winner of the 2016 Dow Award and 2015 NAAIM Wagner Award, is chief investment strategist and co-portfolio manager at Pension Partners, LLC., an investment advisor which manages mutual funds and separate accounts according to its ATAC strategies. Prior to this role, Gayed served as a portfolio manager for a large international investment group, trading long/short investment ideas in an effort to capture excess returns. From 2004 to 2008, Gayed was a strategist at AmeriCap Advisers LLC, a registered investment advisory firm that managed equity portfolios for large institutional clients. In 2007, he launched his own long/short hedge fund, using various trading strategies focused on taking advantage of stock market anomalies. Follow him on Twitter @pensionpartners and YouTube youtube.com/pensionpartners. He has re-released his father's 1990 book Intermarket Analysis and Investing, now available on Amazon.com.
Katy Delay is a freelance commentator, an amateur cartoonist in economics, and the self-published author of a short biography of her father, economist Edward C. Harwood. He was the founder of the third oldest think tank in the U.S., the American Institute for Economic Research, of which she is currently a voting member. Having grown up literally inside the Institute offices, Katy absorbed a great deal about the dismal science; yet she also sympathizes with a public lulled to sleep by the phrase "economic research," combining as it does two of the most boring words in the English language. After getting her degree from Mount Holyoke College, she spent the next 30 years taking her American heritage for granted on five continents. Ultimately, through personal experience, she came to appreciate the significance of her father's lifework and to realize that the degree of freedom and opportunity we are supposed to have in this country is unique. It is also just as fragile as her father had warned. She began to study, and then to write. Since 2004, various websites and newspapers such as Mises.Org, PrudentBear.com, SeekingAlpha.com, and the Los Angeles Business Journal have published her articles. In 2005, she started a blog with the byline: "Proving that economics and a sense of humor are not mutually exclusive." Her first book, the Harwood biography, was published in 2013.
Michael Ashton has been a recognized leader in developing the U.S. inflation derivatives market. He traded the first interbank U.S. CPI swaps in 2003 and, as a dealer, was a primary liquidity-provider in that market for two large banks. He represented about one-third of interbank swaps volume during his tenures at those firms. He invented and was the sole market-maker for the CME CPI Futures contract. He has written and spoken extensively about the use of inflation-indexed products for hedging real exposures, and has written more broadly in a commentary format about the rates markets and macroeconomy. Mr. Ashton is currently the managing principal at Enduring Investments LLC. His comments on this site and others are not posted in that role, and no opinions of his should be construed to be recommendations of or to reflect the views of his employer. He recently published "What's Wrong With Money? The Biggest Bubble of All."
John Lombardo, CFA
John holds a BS in Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. John earned his Chartered Financial Analyst designation in 2004 and is a member of the CFA Society of Rochester.
Continuously trading since 1996. Market maker on Philadelphia Stock Exchange from 1996 to 2002. Proprietary, independent trader since 1998. Actively trade futures, stocks, and options. Primary Focus on commodities. Holding periods vary but theme trades last for months, on average.
I am an extreme contrarian investor, aquarium hobbyist and health-food guzzler. Let it be known that I intend to examine opinions, and see if they can be backed up with evidence. Also, I try to be as easy going as possible, but apologize in advance for any unholy rambling rants that occur while I write an article under the influence of coffee.
I realize that there is a lack of understanding regarding the basic tenants of economics. As such I hope to be able to explain concepts in an easily accessible manner that will allow people to figure out if policies are beneficial in the short run, long run, or not at all.
Feel free to check out my articles about layman economics on the Business Times http://www.btinvest.com.sg/blogs/filter/by_reporter?id=1621
Ellen Brown is an attorney, president of the Public Banking Institute, and the author of twelve books. Shedeveloped her research skills as an attorney practicing civil litigation in Los Angeles. In "Web of Debt," she turned those skills to an analysis of the Federal Reserve and “the money trust.” She showed how this private cartel has usurped the power to create money from the people themselves, and how we the people can get it back. In "The Public Bank Solution," her latest book, she explores the public banking model globally and historically as an equitable and efficient solution to our banking woes. Her earlier books focused on the pharmaceutical cartel that gets its power from “the money trust.” They include "Forbidden Medicine," "Nature’s Pharmacy" (co-authored with Dr. Lynne Walker), and "The Key to Ultimate Health" (co-authored with Dr. Richard Hansen). Her websites are www.webofdebt.com, www.publicbanksolution.com and www.ellenbrown.com.
I retired as CEO of an Automotive Parts supplier, and manage an investment portfolio for myself and family. I have a BA in History from Royal Military College of Canada and an MBA from the University of Western Ontario. My first career was as a fighter pilot in the RCAF, and, following my MBA I joined McKinsey & Company, Inc. leaving them for Canadian GE. I left CGE as a Vice President in 1984 and founded The Enfield Corporation Limited ("Enfield") which grew from 243 employees in 1984 to over 10,000 in 1989 when Enfield was taken over and I was replaced as CEO. In 1989, I acquired control of Algonquin Mercantile Corporation, renamed Automodular Corporation in the late 1990's when I turned it to focus exclusively on automotive parts sub-assembly. Along the way, Algonquin turned a few ageing drug stores into Pharmx Rexall Drug Stores Ltd., sold to Katz group in 1997 and today a major Canadian drug store chain. I have been a private investor since 1971 both directly and through a private company controlled by myself and members of my family.
I am 38 years old, married and have two daughters 4 and 6. I live upstate New York near Ithaca.
My aim is to be objective about the macro investment environment and to provide sound analysis on stocks.
I'm a fan of the following people to help give a perspective of my biases I may hold with regards to investment and economics: Adam Smith, Milton Friedman, Charles Schwab (Steel Tycoon), Martin Armstrong, Peter Bernstein (Author), Henry Ford, Ayn Rand, to name a few.
Doug Short is first-wave boomer with a lifelong interest in markets and the economy. His professional career had been a satisfying split between academia (English Professor at North Carolina State University) and Information technology (IBM and GSK).
Doug retired in 2006 to devote himself full-time to his dshort.com financial website. The domain has now been acquired by Advisor Perspectives, and Doug has been appointed the Vice President of Research.
Doug is especially interested in the economy, long-term market trends and behavioral finance.
I am a value investor. I buy stakes in businesses when I think that the company has a strong balance sheet, competent management, and that the business is undervalued according to my models. Furthermore, I will only buy a business when the stock is cheap, meaning that there is a margin of safety between the current stock price and my calculated Intrinsic Value.
My wife and I are retired and have been living comfortably on our investments for some years. I spend part of my time managing those investments. My investment approach is based on my macro views and I trade infrequently to adjust our portfolio to changes in asset prices and my perception of the macro environment. My background is in science and engineering rather than in finance or money management, but the analytic skills and skeptical viewpoint that served well in my career have proved to be very helpful in my investment decision making. Frequently, the common wisdom regarding the macro environment is both unwise and disturbingly common. This provides a potential advantage to those willing to think independently. But at the same time, when one bets against the prevailing view, caution is of utmost importance, since the market may fail to recognize the truth for an unpredictably long time. Thus, a barbell investment approach has been found to be essential, with enough hedge assets to ride out the recognition delay.
Hale Stewart spent 5 years as a bond broker in the late 1990s before returning to law school in the early 2000s. He is currently a tax lawyer in Houston, Texas. He has an LLM from the Thomas Jefferson School of Law in domestic and international taxation where he graduated Magna Cum Laude and is also a Chartered Asset Manager, Chartered Wealth Manager and Chartered Trust and Estate Planner from the American Academy of Financial Management. He is the author of the book US Captive Insurance Law. You can read him daily at the XE.com currency blog (http://community.xe.com/blog/xe-market-analysis).
Chris Ciovacco is the founder and CEO of Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM), an independent money management firm serving individual investors nationwide. The thoroughly researched and backtested CCM Market Model answers these important questions: (1) How much should we allocate to risk assets?, (2) How much should we allocate to conservative assets?, (3) What are the most attractive risk assets?, and (4) What are the most attractive conservative assets?
Chris is an expert in identifying the best ETFs from a wide variety of asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and precious metals. The CCM Market Model compares over 130 different ETFs to identify the most attractive risk-reward opportunities.
Chris graduated summa cum laude from The Georgia Institute of Technology with a co-operative degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering. Prior to founding Ciovacco Capital Management in 1999, Mr. Ciovacco worked as a Financial Advisor for Morgan Stanley in Atlanta for five years earning a strong reputation for his independent research and high integrity. While at Georgia Tech, he gained valuable experience working as a co-op for IBM (1985-1990). During his time with Morgan Stanley, Chris received extensive training which included extended stays in NYC at the World Trade Center.
His areas of expertise include technical analysis and market model development. CCM’s popular weekly technical analysis videos on YouTube have been viewed over 700,000 times. Chris’ years of experience and research led to the creation of the thoroughly backtested CCM Market Model, which serves as the foundation for the management of separate accounts for individuals and businesses.
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24 years of financial industry experience:
Neosho Capital (2004 to Present)
Brandes Investment Partners (1996-2003)
Director of Mutual Fund Portfolio Management
Cooley Godward Huddleson and Tatum (1993-1996)
Associate, Securities Law
Union Bank of Switzerland (1989-1990)
Credit Officer, Leveraged Buy-outs
Marine Midland Bank (1986 - 1989)
Credit Officer, Leveraged Buy-outs
Stanford University Law School - Juris Doctor (1993)
Oxford University – Master of Philosophy, Management Studies (1986)
Southern Methodist University Bachelor Business Administration (1983)
Member, State Bar of California
CFA Charterholder (2000)
I believe that our economic situation is vastly misunderstood. The future adverse consequences of this misunderstanding can not be understated. It is for this reason that I write about our economic condition, with a focus toward (economic) Sustainable Prosperity and the future economic condition of the United States.
As for my background: I have investment experience dating back to 1988. This includes advanced knowledge and experience in equities, options, futures, futures options, forex, and economic research. Much of what is written in this site is a corollary to the analytical and modeling work I do, and have done, concerning the financial markets.
I also have corporate experience. This includes Finance, Pricing, Strategy, Business Analysis and Business Planning; and various aspects of Marketing Management.
My education includes an MBA from University of Chicago and an Undergraduate Degree (B.S.) in Business from Indiana University.
Prior publishing credits include Barron’s, Director’s Monthly, and a contributor to the book “The Art of M&A Integration.”
M. Kevin Flynn has held the Chartered Financial Analyst designation since 1992. He is the President of Avalon Asset Management Company, a Registered Investment Adviser, and has worked in the investment industry since 1983.
Avalon's MarketWeek, a weekly newsletter written by Mr. Flynn and covering the stock market, economy and individual stocks has been published continuously since April 2007. For subscription information please send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org
Came of age as tricky Dick separated USD from gold and poofed the petro dollar.
Today, in my seventh decade, and able to write, I was fortunate to report on what interested me; silver & gold and critical resource mining, and the people in the shadows of the head frames with skin in the game. Capitalism is a favorite power tool though it doesn't cut it like it used to. Proponent of sound money, actual free markets, and long walks on the beach.
Motto: buy and hold physical silver.
Inactive of late because I don't advocate buying stocks - of any kind, but that's just me.
Wishing everyone peace and prosperity in the times ahead.
Willem Middelkoop (1962) author of The Big Reset, published in three languages English, Chinese and Dutch. He is founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund. In the Netherlands he is best known for his work as a business commentator for the RTL Z business channel between 2001 and 2008. He also founded Amsterdamgold.com, a web store for gold and silver bullion, in 2008. The webshop reached total sales of E120 mln in 2011, the year it was sold to a Dutch listed company. In his first book, in 2007, he warned of a possible crash of the global financial system, which by the end of 2008 was virtually a fact. The book is currently in its seventeenth print and over 50,000 copies have been sold. In total he sold over 100,000 books.
I am the founder and editor of Investment Directions. My career has been managing and consulting to multi-billion dollar funds. Using the widely accepted “multi-manager” approach, I have worked with top investment managers throughout the country, gaining a high level of expertise.
My career has spanned many market environments, and I have hands-on experience searching out opportunities and avoiding risks in all of them. I now devote my time to Investment Directions, with the goal of helping investors further their understanding and improve their investing skills.
I am currently serving on: The AAUW Investment Advisers Committee and The City of Vista Investment Advisory Committee.
Thomas H. Kee Jr., is President and CEO of Stock Traders Daily. The Stock of the Week Strategy offered by Stock Traders Daily may be the best performing strategy on the market since December, 2007 (before the credit crisis), and "The Investment Rate" is arguably the best measure of the underlying economy available anywhere (it is a macroeconomic work). Our reports and analysis are currently offered by Reuters Research to their institutional clients. Economic analysis and forecasting is provided to a variety of institutional and retail clientele through Stock Traders Daily's corporate website. Mr. Kee had worked with Smith Barney, AG Edwards, and Morgan Stanley before founding Stock Traders Daily in January 2000. Stock Traders daily thrived during the Internet Debacle. (http://stocktradersdaily.com/)
As Chairman of Guggenheim Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer, Mr. Minerd guides the Firm’s investment strategies and leads its research on global macroeconomics. Prior to joining Guggenheim Partners, Mr. Minerd was a managing director at Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse. He is involved in leadership roles at a number of civically-minded organizations, including Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and Strategic Partners Among Nations.
Joseph has been an analyst, investor, and student of economic theory; money and banking; and statistical methods for evaluating and implementing risk/reward trading algorithms since 1972. Joseph is also an occasional contributor to financial publications and his essays are frequently cited by other financial websites and publications.
Since the end of the Great Recession, Joseph came to recognize that traditional methodologies for forecasting economic growth and investment asset pricing are no longer of value, and a broader understanding of the post Glass Steagall, financially engineered world that has driven markets and economies since the turn of the century is required today.
He has a good grasp of Shadow Banking, High Frequency Trading, and Dark Pools, and their impact on today’s markets. He has also spent considerable time understanding the new global paradigm of central bank involvement in experimental policy designed to better control economies.
Joseph doesn’t subscribe to a specific school of theory on economics. Rather, his thinking is based on a combination of the Classical School, the Austrian School, and the Keynesian School. He even sees the writings of Karl Marx as particularly instructive.
Joseph is particularly fond of the following quote from Albert Einstein and sees his own work as driven by that same passionate curiosity that Einstein refers to:
“I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious.”
Coming in a close second in terms of favorite quotes that express his views, Joseph embraces Lord Acton’s views expressed here:
“The danger is not that a particular class is unfit to govern.
Every class is unfit to govern."
Mr. Hui has been involved in the equity markets since 1980, both on the buy side and the sell side. He is a CFA Charterholder, and has presented numerous papers to quantitative discussion groups (Sample topics include: How Global are Resource Sectors).