A Perfect Storm For Lead Economic Indicators? [View article]
Where is Diogenes of Sinope, the philosopher who walked throughout Athens carrying a lantern in daylight, searching for an honest man, when we need him?
Probably burning down the city, and getting ready to next burn up all the stupid politicians.
On the one hand, maybe we need Diogenes to look for a "reasonable economist" thinker. On the other, maybe, this time we have found one (1) of them.
Very nice piece = both politically and economically. {nice choice, Ed.}
Hussman's Recession Call Is Still Not Validated [View article]
Hale, fellow, well met...!
The First Rule for an "expert" is: If you are ever correct...; never, EVER let them forget it!"
The First Corollary for an "expert" is then, "Never, EVER admit you have ever been wrong!" {Was Allan Greenspan (mentally?) ill that day?}
The First Rule for a "critic" is: If you ever catch them in a possible mistake or putative error... yell..., even scream out: "You're wrong!" (or..., if you are a politician: "Sir, You're a liar!")
As a lawyer, you know that until either of you are proven correct, you can scream out - monthly, if not more often - in a crowded theatre, like SA, and they cannot arrest you.
And, if, sadly, they are proven correct, you can always argue that you would have gotten it right, if only they had not mislead you.
Employment: Return Of The Great Oscillation [View article]
"commentariat" people...???
Do you have ANY idea of the number and percentage of the SAers and Rush's ditto-heads and the rest of U.S..., you have mortally offended?
Have you told the "Islamist", yet? If not, we will. Then watch to see if you or Salman Rushdie stay alive the longest. Have a nice day, and rest of your life...!!!
Why U.S. Unemployment Rate Is 12.1% [View article]
Carlos, well done.
An interesting fact that Bill @ Calculated Risk has recently pointed out to U.S., is that voluntary quits have steadily increased as layoffs and fires have decreased.
That suggests a few things: first, those who were totally reluctant to give up their day jobs, now feel that they can, and should, take new opportunities. So, they find a new job, and then quit. second, employers now prefer to hire those with jobs over those who do not. third, that when a person WITH a job quits and/to take a new job, they do NOT file for UI benefits, they don't need them.
And, IF that is true, "new claims" will steadily fall bcuz the quits don't file them; and U-6 falls bcuz those ON unemployment cannot find anyone willing to hire them, and their UI benefits expire.
And, so..., if we look at your first chart the red and blue lines prove that the U-6 rate is not changing.
But, what the participation (green [not? - economically or environmentally] chart) shows U.S. is that too many are still stopping looking.
What we have argued is that this is an "L" shaped "jobless" recovery is actually a lot worse than that - it is a Maelstrom - sucking U.S. down.
Safety net needs and costs will go up and may never come down, AND the revenues to support it are falling and being cut.
As we learned in Vietnam: "Sometime we have to destroy The Village in order to save it."
The difference was, of course, that then we were killing "them" whereas today we are killing U.S.
Recessionary Forecast: Prisoners Of Housing [View article]
CW, said you: "Not sure if FL is representative of national markets other than California, Nevada, or Arizona"
Observed we: Fla, due to its robo-signing problems is not representative of any other state. You do have the same "backlog" of foreclosures, as NYCity, that have not been addressed, yet. Same problems, different reasons.
Cal is different - well, bcuz Cal is "different" - than U.S. - in part bcuz they did try to slow down foreclosures. But, that program has just expired. So, what we have been seeing in Cal for the last few months, and what we may now see, probably are totally different. We can't trust them, anymore.
Nev is different.- well, as they tried to tell U.S. "what happens in Loss Vegas, stays in Lost Vegas". What used be true about your money, tis now true about their foreclosures; and, possibly, their STDs. However, what YOU need to know is that Nev has just adopted a new program to slow down foreclosures. And, what that means is that what might have been true in the last few months, is probably not even close to being true now.
And, then there is Arid-zone-Ah - where we do not believe in any regulations - well..., except for, or is that against, those Pesky Mexi immi-grunts. But, AZ did not do those bad things Fla did, nor Cal, nor Nev. As everyone - well, every RE promoter - can and will tell you - "The End is Here !!!".
Well, except for the most recent Fiserve Case-Shiller survey: Phoenix home values expected to fall another 10% http://bit.ly/wFwAPK
But, what do those GDd people know...!!! That we don't?
Recessionary Forecast: Prisoners Of Housing [View article]
Ost, while your point is valid, their is a distinction that you may be missing.
Small local and regional banks usually make business and RE construction loans - they gain "construction risk interest rates". And, they were usually created by local entrepreneurs who couldn't get large banks to lend to them, on reasonable terms.
While they MAKE home loans, what most them also did was immediately re-sell them to the GREs. Oddly, most of them did do what Countrywide, WAMU and Wichovia did - sell U.S. homes with Wall Street bankster money. One might ask why? Or, understand that they LIVE near the people they lend to.
So, while most local banks do not have any RE mortgages that they are still holding on their book, they most certainly DO have a ton of very bad business and RE construction loans.
Most of them are 5-7-10 year balloons. Which are now "incoming" - like "The Neighbors", who assumed that if they held on long enough, everything would get back to "normal". They have been, are and will continue to fall like flies - when they face their "Day of Reckoning".
Sadly, we are not suggesting that "The End is Near" - or even that we can see it - yet.
A Letter From Adam Smith To Investors [View article]
Ten, you missed one - desires.
One of the lessons of doing divorces was that we, humans, have wants, needs and desires.
"Needs" being what we must have to survive - straight malt scotch (oh, and water - ice 4 U.S. and neat w a splash for real Scots), food, sex, etc.
"Desires" are those things we think we want - sex with Bardot or Angelina, a taste of each and every straight malt scotch, and a hockey team in Seattle. But, we will not kill, or die, if we don't get them.
"Wants" are those things in life we WILL get for ourselves - no matter how much we have to pay for it, and/or punish those who try to stop U.S. - marital trust and respect, business trust and respect, SA trust and respect, and, of course, "whatever".
However, not all business cycles are explained by a periodic divergence. True, some are: Take McMansions, in the sand states, using very bad ARMs or subprimes - please. Or, crew cabs and Hummers commuting on freeways with one (1) person in them, to the RE or law office.
What you might find "interesting", or very odd, is that most of U.S. find it much easier to prioritize our needs and desires, than our wants.
If you do not believe that, you should try to represent addicts - drugs, sex, making money, selling, winning or alcohol. Or, someone who has just fallen madly in love with both their best friends wife/husband and son/daughter.
What amazed me is how otherwise very bright people - is there a pun in there - can be so GD stupid, at times. And, not be able to stop them selves from doing it. They WANT to do it, so do.
Oh, and have you, per chance, noticed that ALL politicians WANT all of U.S. to like them?
A Letter From Adam Smith To Investors [View article]
"Customers" has become the new "plastics", for Benjamin N Ms Robinson.
Small businesses are telling U.S. that it is not regulations, or taxes, or whatever else we want it to be..., but the lack of customers that is killing them.
As we pointed out before, there is no possible way that "The 1%", let alone "The .1%", can spend enough, in all the right places, to sustain this economy.
A Letter From Adam Smith To Investors [View article]
John, we have not been as entertained @ SA, since we got so old we forgot what it was to be entertained, or what actually was entertaining. Exceptionally well done.
However, was it really necessary to suggest to U.S. that we should read any of that Lynden-Hour person? Now that you have helped U.S. understand you, who needs him?
Disirregardless, even, you wove humour into an exposition that was priceless. And, no, just bcuz you're a Scot, does not mean any of U.S. are giving you any US$ 4 Trillion. You are "priceless" John - no more, no less.
However, you might not want to let that Lawrence J. Kramer type of guy see or read this. He might not appreciate your sense of humour - either.
SU, your point about synergy in some trade might suggest that everyone take a long hard look at the largest increasing export to China - soybeans.
Explain, to yourselves how, and why, China wants and needs soybeans from U.S. No, not why they want them, why from U.S., and not solely Brazil.
If you know anything about "alternative fuels", you will know that OUR policy is to subsidize the use of both corn and soybeans to be converted into an alternative to gasoline.
The fact that neither corn or soybeans are very good, let alone the best "feed source", does not stop U.S. from spending Billions to subsidize their use. Why?
IF it truly is profitable for both China and U.S. to have U.S. grow soybeans and for them to pay OUR prices for them, why are we throwing money, and soybeans, away?
Even after, first the soybean lobby, and then the corn lobby, "bought" congressional support for their subsidies, China STILL is willing to pay market prices to U.S. for them.
But, of course, THEY are "Communists", and WE have a "free market economy". That must explain it..., all.
American Monetary Lessons From Japan's Last 2 Decades [View article]
Said you: "When the private sector spends less in order to repair balance sheets, there is a demand void to be filled."
Pointed out we: When the Wall Street investment bankster's "securitization" program collapsed in 07-8, they withdrew from the US economy in excess of 50% of all RE loans.
In the prior three years they had financed over US$ 3.5 Trillion, and of that over US$ 2.5 Trillion was in very bad ARMs and subprimes.
The point is not the effects of the bad RE loans, but the effects of the withdrawal of those home mortgage funds from the RE market.
Then, when China announced in July 08 that they would stop buying FMae&FMac bonds, the other half of the RE financing industry simply disappeared.
To talk about the success or failure of monetary policy, when there are NO loans to be had from any source for buying or selling RE, is to miss out on the fact that not only was the dog not barking, there was no dog.
W "nationalized" the FMae&FMac debts, for China; and began to buy US$ 35 Billion a month in their bonds so they COULD lend to U.S.
What part of "stimulus spending" do any of you not understand?
What would have happened if W had not done that? Who would have or could have bought the massive supply of brand new homes that were held in builders inventories? Anyone? Would we have been worse off then, than Greece is now?
Who Will Benefit: Banks Or Housing? [View article]
RS, you still don't get it.
At the beginning of this RE collapse, lender/bankster actually DID sell bulk packages of RE loans in Cal and Nev, but not as far as we could find in AZ or Fla. What they very quickly discovered was that there were NO buyers - except at cent on the dollar. Why? Bcuz nobody knew what the prices would be in the next year. What really happened was that those fools who did buy, lost ALL of their expected profits as prices fell even further through the floor.
What also happened is the banksters quickly discovered that IF they sold bad loans at those prices, they would never, EVER make enough elsewhere to cover their losses - they would have to raise more capital than was possible at that time, to stay in business, even with the bailouts.
So, they cut their losses, and stopped all bulk sales.
That was then, this is now.
There now IS a floor established, if only in the sand states and if only for the least expensive homes. We all now know what "all cash investors" are willing to pay for them - in AZ, Nev & Cal.
And, the lender/banksters know precisely how much they need to earn from other "profit centers" to cover those losses.
Now, for page two -
Do you remember a few years ago and a few after the collapse when REITs raised a TON of money to buy "distressed" property? Do you remember when they discovered that there were NO sellers, and they couldn't buy anything, and they were stuck with TONS of cash? And, no way to make any profits?
Since the banksters now know how to manage - as in "cover" - their losses, why would they discount bad loans a whole lot further? Why would they increase their needs for additional capital, by giving away money?
True, BKofA is doing that in AZ, Nev and Cal. But, the money they are giving up to raise cash is small, and the cash they are getting is enough to cover themselves.
You assume that "Those People" are ready, willing and able to jump off the Empire State Building, bucz they do not know what else to do, or have no other choice.
They have not done that so far, and we see no reason for them to panic now, solely to satisfy you. And, enable someone else to make money, that they still need to make themselves.
Now, for page three -
IF Carrington was buying great stuff, as the all cash investors are in AZ and Nev; and some foreigners are in Fla; we might applaud them.
Oh, and what the foreigner know is that when we drive down the value of the USdollar, the rise in their currency will more than offset the expected losses in RE values! Will Carrington be able to do that? What with "washing drug money"?
However, IF they really are buying stuff in Fla, what are they gonna do when all the backed up robo-signing foreclosures flood the RE markets?
Heavens, they don't even have to wait for global warming to flood the Great ex-state of Florida with "underwater property"...!!!
Retail Sales: A Disappointing 0.1% In December [View article]
If this analysis by Doug "selling U.S.Short" is not discouraging enough, you need to read his other article today: Demographic Headwinds: The Decline of Peak Spenders http://bit.ly/yKxttj
There he points out: The Age 45-49 cohort peaked in 2009 and will bottom out in 2022 after an estimated decline of 13.4% from the 2009 population. The Census Bureau's estimate for 2012 would give us an additional 8.8% decline in numbers for the big spending cohort before bottoming out.
So, not only do we have retiring baby-boomers, but we also have a huge decline in peak year spenders, with a huge decline in their and everyone's ability to borrow and spend.
The Good News is that with nobody working and paying taxes none of it matters. The End is Near...!!!
Get out your Mayan Calendars... {so you'll know which day of the month to remember to have sex}
Retail Sales: A Disappointing 0.1% In December [View article]
While your first point, about consumer debt declining is valid, you either forgot to mention, or consider, where and why, or what that means.
The deleveraging by home owners by foreclosures, strategic defaults, and short sales dwarfs the paydowns on principle by debtors. The deleveraging by retail credit users by bankruptcy, cancelled credit cards and lines of credit, dwarfs the paydowns on outstanding balances.
However, with everyone of Those People their credit ratings have been impaired, if not destroyed. More important, the "equity" that the middle class once had in their homes is gone; and for too many will never come back.
To assume that they will be willing or able to go back to spending as they did is foolish, in the extreme.
Young people cannot find work, returning service people cannot find work, college grads can't find work, or pay for their student loan - and you think nothing has changed?
After 4 years of no recovery - not jobs, not housing, and as Doug points out to U.S. not in "sales", what part of an "L" shaped recovery do you not understand?
A Serious Look At The December Jobs Report [View article]
There is a very interesting post by Jared Whomever, about the FedEx and UPS delivery vans for Amazon.com: Some Deep Wonkery on Moving Seasonality http://bit.ly/xw5Q1g
That when "smoothed out" - for "seasonal adjustments" the 42K was 30K less.
Why, Heavens, even the Wall Street Journal noticed THAT one.
A Perfect Storm For Lead Economic Indicators? [View article]
Probably burning down the city, and getting ready to next burn up all the stupid politicians.
On the one hand, maybe we need Diogenes to look for a "reasonable economist" thinker. On the other, maybe, this time we have found one (1) of them.
Very nice piece = both politically and economically.
{nice choice, Ed.}
Hussman's Recession Call Is Still Not Validated [View article]
The First Rule for an "expert" is:
If you are ever correct...; never, EVER let them forget it!"
The First Corollary for an "expert" is then,
"Never, EVER admit you have ever been wrong!"
{Was Allan Greenspan (mentally?) ill that day?}
The First Rule for a "critic" is:
If you ever catch them in a possible mistake or putative error...
yell..., even scream out: "You're wrong!"
(or..., if you are a politician: "Sir, You're a liar!")
As a lawyer, you know that until either of you are proven correct, you can scream out - monthly, if not more often - in a crowded theatre, like SA, and they cannot arrest you.
And, if, sadly, they are proven correct, you can always argue that you would have gotten it right, if only they had not mislead you.
Employment: Return Of The Great Oscillation [View article]
Do you have ANY idea of the number and percentage of the SAers and Rush's ditto-heads and the rest of U.S..., you have mortally offended?
Have you told the "Islamist", yet? If not, we will.
Then watch to see if you or Salman Rushdie stay alive the longest.
Have a nice day, and rest of your life...!!!
Why U.S. Unemployment Rate Is 12.1% [View article]
An interesting fact that Bill @ Calculated Risk has recently pointed out to U.S., is that voluntary quits have steadily increased as layoffs and fires have decreased.
That suggests a few things:
first, those who were totally reluctant to give up their day jobs, now feel that they can, and should, take new opportunities. So, they find a new job, and then quit.
second, employers now prefer to hire those with jobs over those who do not.
third, that when a person WITH a job quits and/to take a new job, they do NOT file for UI benefits, they don't need them.
And, IF that is true, "new claims" will steadily fall bcuz the quits don't file them; and U-6 falls bcuz those ON unemployment cannot find anyone willing to hire them, and their UI benefits expire.
And, so..., if we look at your first chart the red and blue lines prove that the U-6 rate is not changing.
But, what the participation (green [not? - economically or environmentally] chart) shows U.S. is that too many are still stopping looking.
What we have argued is that this is an "L" shaped "jobless" recovery is actually a lot worse than that - it is a Maelstrom - sucking U.S. down.
Safety net needs and costs will go up and may never come down, AND the revenues to support it are falling and being cut.
As we learned in Vietnam:
"Sometime we have to destroy The Village in order to save it."
The difference was, of course, that then we were killing "them"
whereas today we are killing U.S.
Recessionary Forecast: Prisoners Of Housing [View article]
"Not sure if FL is representative of national markets other than California, Nevada, or Arizona"
Observed we:
Fla, due to its robo-signing problems is not representative of any other state. You do have the same "backlog" of foreclosures, as NYCity, that have not been addressed, yet. Same problems, different reasons.
Cal is different - well, bcuz Cal is "different" - than U.S. - in part bcuz they did try to slow down foreclosures. But, that program has just expired. So, what we have been seeing in Cal for the last few months, and what we may now see, probably are totally different.
We can't trust them, anymore.
Nev is different.- well, as they tried to tell U.S. "what happens in Loss Vegas, stays in Lost Vegas". What used be true about your money, tis now true about their foreclosures; and, possibly, their STDs. However, what YOU need to know is that Nev has just adopted a new program to slow down foreclosures. And, what that means is that what might have been true in the last few months, is probably not even close to being true now.
And, then there is Arid-zone-Ah - where we do not believe in any regulations - well..., except for, or is that against, those Pesky Mexi immi-grunts. But, AZ did not do those bad things Fla did, nor Cal, nor Nev. As everyone - well, every RE promoter - can and will tell you - "The End is Here !!!".
Well, except for the most recent Fiserve Case-Shiller survey:
Phoenix home values expected to fall another 10%
http://bit.ly/wFwAPK
But, what do those GDd people know...!!!
That we don't?
Recessionary Forecast: Prisoners Of Housing [View article]
Small local and regional banks usually make business and RE construction loans - they gain "construction risk interest rates". And, they were usually created by local entrepreneurs who couldn't get large banks to lend to them, on reasonable terms.
While they MAKE home loans, what most them also did was immediately re-sell them to the GREs. Oddly, most of them did do what Countrywide, WAMU and Wichovia did - sell U.S. homes with Wall Street bankster money. One might ask why? Or, understand that they LIVE near the people they lend to.
So, while most local banks do not have any RE mortgages that they are still holding on their book, they most certainly DO have a ton of very bad business and RE construction loans.
Most of them are 5-7-10 year balloons. Which are now "incoming" - like "The Neighbors", who assumed that if they held on long enough, everything would get back to "normal". They have been, are and will continue to fall like flies - when they face their "Day of Reckoning".
Sadly, we are not suggesting that "The End is Near" - or even that we can see it - yet.
A Letter From Adam Smith To Investors [View article]
One of the lessons of doing divorces was that we, humans, have wants, needs and desires.
"Needs" being what we must have to survive - straight malt scotch (oh, and water - ice 4 U.S. and neat w a splash for real Scots), food, sex, etc.
"Desires" are those things we think we want - sex with Bardot or Angelina, a taste of each and every straight malt scotch, and a hockey team in Seattle. But, we will not kill, or die, if we don't get them.
"Wants" are those things in life we WILL get for ourselves - no matter how much we have to pay for it, and/or punish those who try to stop U.S. - marital trust and respect, business trust and respect, SA trust and respect, and, of course, "whatever".
However, not all business cycles are explained by a periodic divergence. True, some are: Take McMansions, in the sand states, using very bad ARMs or subprimes - please. Or, crew cabs and Hummers commuting on freeways with one (1) person in them, to the RE or law office.
What you might find "interesting", or very odd, is that most of U.S. find it much easier to prioritize our needs and desires, than our wants.
If you do not believe that, you should try to represent addicts - drugs, sex, making money, selling, winning or alcohol. Or, someone who has just fallen madly in love with both their best friends wife/husband and son/daughter.
What amazed me is how otherwise very bright people - is there a pun in there - can be so GD stupid, at times. And, not be able to stop them selves from doing it. They WANT to do it, so do.
Oh, and have you, per chance, noticed that ALL politicians WANT all of U.S. to like them?
A Letter From Adam Smith To Investors [View article]
Small businesses are telling U.S. that it is not regulations, or taxes, or whatever else we want it to be..., but the lack of customers that is killing them.
As we pointed out before, there is no possible way that "The 1%", let alone "The .1%", can spend enough, in all the right places, to sustain this economy.
A Letter From Adam Smith To Investors [View article]
However, was it really necessary to suggest to U.S. that we should read any of that Lynden-Hour person? Now that you have helped U.S. understand you, who needs him?
Disirregardless, even, you wove humour into an exposition that was priceless. And, no, just bcuz you're a Scot, does not mean any of U.S. are giving you any US$ 4 Trillion. You are "priceless" John - no more, no less.
However, you might not want to let that Lawrence J. Kramer type of guy see or read this. He might not appreciate your sense of humour - either.
Do We Compete With China? [View article]
Explain, to yourselves how, and why, China wants and needs soybeans from U.S. No, not why they want them, why from U.S., and not solely Brazil.
If you know anything about "alternative fuels", you will know that OUR policy is to subsidize the use of both corn and soybeans to be converted into an alternative to gasoline.
The fact that neither corn or soybeans are very good, let alone the best "feed source", does not stop U.S. from spending Billions to subsidize their use. Why?
IF it truly is profitable for both China and U.S. to have U.S. grow soybeans and for them to pay OUR prices for them, why are we throwing money, and soybeans, away?
Even after, first the soybean lobby, and then the corn lobby, "bought" congressional support for their subsidies, China STILL is willing to pay market prices to U.S. for them.
But, of course, THEY are "Communists", and WE have a "free market economy". That must explain it..., all.
American Monetary Lessons From Japan's Last 2 Decades [View article]
"When the private sector spends less in order to repair balance sheets, there is a demand void to be filled."
Pointed out we:
When the Wall Street investment bankster's "securitization" program collapsed in 07-8, they withdrew from the US economy in excess of 50% of all RE loans.
In the prior three years they had financed over US$ 3.5 Trillion, and of that over US$ 2.5 Trillion was in very bad ARMs and subprimes.
The point is not the effects of the bad RE loans, but the effects of the withdrawal of those home mortgage funds from the RE market.
Then, when China announced in July 08 that they would stop buying FMae&FMac bonds, the other half of the RE financing industry simply disappeared.
To talk about the success or failure of monetary policy, when there are NO loans to be had from any source for buying or selling RE, is to miss out on the fact that not only was the dog not barking, there was no dog.
W "nationalized" the FMae&FMac debts, for China; and began to buy US$ 35 Billion a month in their bonds so they COULD lend to U.S.
What part of "stimulus spending" do any of you not understand?
What would have happened if W had not done that?
Who would have or could have bought the massive supply of brand new homes that were held in builders inventories? Anyone?
Would we have been worse off then, than Greece is now?
Who Will Benefit: Banks Or Housing? [View article]
At the beginning of this RE collapse, lender/bankster actually DID sell bulk packages of RE loans in Cal and Nev, but not as far as we could find in AZ or Fla. What they very quickly discovered was that there were NO buyers - except at cent on the dollar. Why? Bcuz nobody knew what the prices would be in the next year. What really happened was that those fools who did buy, lost ALL of their expected profits as prices fell even further through the floor.
What also happened is the banksters quickly discovered that IF they sold bad loans at those prices, they would never, EVER make enough elsewhere to cover their losses - they would have to raise more capital than was possible at that time, to stay in business, even with the bailouts.
So, they cut their losses, and stopped all bulk sales.
That was then, this is now.
There now IS a floor established, if only in the sand states and if only for the least expensive homes. We all now know what "all cash investors" are willing to pay for them - in AZ, Nev & Cal.
And, the lender/banksters know precisely how much they need to earn from other "profit centers" to cover those losses.
Now, for page two -
Do you remember a few years ago and a few after the collapse when REITs raised a TON of money to buy "distressed" property? Do you remember when they discovered that there were NO sellers, and they couldn't buy anything, and they were stuck with TONS of cash? And, no way to make any profits?
Since the banksters now know how to manage - as in "cover" - their losses, why would they discount bad loans a whole lot further? Why would they increase their needs for additional capital, by giving away money?
True, BKofA is doing that in AZ, Nev and Cal. But, the money they are giving up to raise cash is small, and the cash they are getting is enough to cover themselves.
You assume that "Those People" are ready, willing and able to jump off the Empire State Building, bucz they do not know what else to do, or have no other choice.
They have not done that so far, and we see no reason for them to panic now, solely to satisfy you. And, enable someone else to make money, that they still need to make themselves.
Now, for page three -
IF Carrington was buying great stuff, as the all cash investors are in AZ and Nev; and some foreigners are in Fla; we might applaud them.
Oh, and what the foreigner know is that when we drive down the value of the USdollar, the rise in their currency will more than offset the expected losses in RE values! Will Carrington be able to do that? What with "washing drug money"?
However, IF they really are buying stuff in Fla, what are they gonna do when all the backed up robo-signing foreclosures flood the RE markets?
Heavens, they don't even have to wait for global warming to flood the Great ex-state of Florida with "underwater property"...!!!
Retail Sales: A Disappointing 0.1% In December [View article]
Demographic Headwinds: The Decline of Peak Spenders
http://bit.ly/yKxttj
There he points out:
The Age 45-49 cohort peaked in 2009 and will bottom out in 2022 after an estimated decline of 13.4% from the 2009 population.
The Census Bureau's estimate for 2012 would give us an additional 8.8% decline in numbers for the big spending cohort before bottoming out.
So, not only do we have retiring baby-boomers, but we also have a huge decline in peak year spenders, with a huge decline in their and everyone's ability to borrow and spend.
The Good News is that with nobody working and paying taxes none of it matters. The End is Near...!!!
Get out your Mayan Calendars...
{so you'll know which day of the month to remember to have sex}
Retail Sales: A Disappointing 0.1% In December [View article]
The deleveraging by home owners by foreclosures, strategic defaults, and short sales dwarfs the paydowns on principle by debtors. The deleveraging by retail credit users by bankruptcy, cancelled credit cards and lines of credit, dwarfs the paydowns on outstanding balances.
However, with everyone of Those People their credit ratings have been impaired, if not destroyed. More important, the "equity" that the middle class once had in their homes is gone; and for too many will never come back.
To assume that they will be willing or able to go back to spending as they did is foolish, in the extreme.
Young people cannot find work, returning service people cannot find work, college grads can't find work, or pay for their student loan - and you think nothing has changed?
After 4 years of no recovery - not jobs, not housing, and as Doug points out to U.S. not in "sales", what part of an "L" shaped recovery do you not understand?
A Serious Look At The December Jobs Report [View article]
Some Deep Wonkery on Moving Seasonality
http://bit.ly/xw5Q1g
That when "smoothed out" - for "seasonal adjustments" the 42K was 30K less.
Why, Heavens, even the Wall Street Journal noticed THAT one.