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  • Pershing Square Gains 15% in November, Skeptics Emerge - A Lesson in Hedge Fund Tracking  [View article]
    If only it was possible to better track hedge fund derivatives like the BP credit default swaps that Pershing Square has been losing money on
    Dec 8, 2010. 06:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pershing Square's 15% Return in November Sounds Fishy  [View article]
    Pershing Square's November gain would have been even more than 15% if it had not been losing money on its BP credit default swaps.
    Dec 8, 2010. 06:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Default Swap Spreads Point to Improvement  [View article]

    its not an improvement in spreads between hi yield and IG but also international sovereigns and corporates.
    Oct 18, 2010. 01:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dagong Bangs the Gong on U.S. Debt  [View article]
    an update to dagong's rejection by the sec for nrsro status can be seen here:
    Oct 8, 2010. 02:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • State Default Risk  [View article]

    Illinois bond yields followed by the CDS actually first overtook California back in June
    Sep 1, 2010. 02:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bahrain – Chugging along not-so-quietly   [View instapost]
    in addition, bahrain is trying to diversify away from just one sector and has in fact been growing manufacturing, which represents the 2nd or 3rd largest source of gdp (depending on what measure you use). no other major global financial city has succeeded solely on the basis of being only a 'financial' city and bahrain may need another industry, like manufacturing if not something else, to grow in order to support the continued growth of financial services as well. otherwise, it could risk just being an offshore-type office center (i.e. tax haven) in which people are only encouraged to come to avoid taxes and "work" but not necessarily "live" (like an antigua or isle of man, which to some extent it already is).
    Jun 22, 2010. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bahrain – Chugging along not-so-quietly   [View instapost]

    i don't know if it would be right to say there "no oil" when the largest sector of bahrain's economy is still from petroleum sales. undoubtedly, like dubai, there is no endless pit of oil wealth to sustain the country for future generations the way abu dhabi or saudi arabi have. True, on a "constant price basis" (i.e. taking into account oil price 'inflation'), financial services as a whole group are the most important sector by this adjusted measure of value contribution but on an absolute price basis, the removal of the larger 2 billion bahraini dinar revenue stream (from the last available public figures) from oil would definitely be felt in this country regardless of how important financial services are to the economy.

    people can view the official stats here
    Jun 22, 2010. 03:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Life Insurers to Settle with Life Settlements?  [View instapost]
    and yes i'd be interested in having a look at your published report if it is available.
    Jun 22, 2010. 05:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Life Insurers to Settle with Life Settlements?  [View instapost]
    oh ok. the reason i asked about goldman and cs was because in the article it said that "2010 has also seen the exit and/or downscaling of major players such as Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse from the life settlements market." but i guess if they were non-trivial participants in the LS industry then maybe i'm confusing different sub-sectors of the markets.

    on a side note, it is actually quite ironic the timing (or maybe thats why you reported on it now) of your report on this subject as i heard that some middle eastern sovereign wealth funds are buying a new billion-dollar zero-coupon 15-year life settlement bond being issued by a company called Gridiron Financial. since i am not an active participant in this market, i would be very interested to know what the pricing on this bond is/was if you happen to know. all i heard was that it was being pre-marketed with an oid 6 1/8% ytm.

    doing the backwards math implies a 2.375% spread over 15-year swaps (3.75% right now). assuming those numbers are somewhat accurate, is that a good level (238 bps spread over swaps) for pricing these kinds of securities? how does that level compare with the all-time or long-term highs and lows?
    Jun 22, 2010. 05:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Life Insurers to Settle with Life Settlements?  [View instapost]
    exactly how big of a player was goldman and credit suisse in the life insurance settlements market? did they ever actually deal with the end clients or only participate on the wholesale financing and structuring end?
    and how long have they been in this market for or is it leftover from the viatical phase of the 90's?
    Jun 18, 2010. 04:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Begins: The Bank Of Spain 'Intervenes' in a Spanish Savings Bank  [View article]
    was this a year too early or whats happening now a year too late...
    Jun 11, 2010. 05:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Loan Market Commentary 03/30/2010  [View instapost]
    have heard that the 24 hour fitness loan is not doing that great compared to some of the other ones out there and still trades around 98.5 issue price. has there been any specific reason you are aware of for that?
    Apr 28, 2010. 10:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Five Most Vulnerable to Derivatives  [View article]
    while there is a distinction between gross and net, a mere opposite trade does not necessarily just make the net of 0 riskless (and thus net may not necessarily be the appropriate wording or measure). sometimes an opposing or closing trade is done is to cut a loss or lock in a gain and this this leaves a basis gap where you can be exposed to risk (counterparty) that one side does not pay you while you are still obligated to pay the other side. in the given example, god-forbid the underlying ref entity and the short side counterparty of the trade both go bust and what you believed to be a net of 0 could actually be closer to the value of your gross.
    Apr 15, 2010. 05:36 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Five Most Vulnerable to Derivatives  [View article]
    is there a similar chart of european banks comparing their derivatives exposures as a % of assets? how do the UK banks compare to the Irish banks, French banks and Swiss banks?
    Apr 13, 2010. 04:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This an Economic Recovery? Assessing the Investing Climate in the Years Ahead  [View article]
    john - what is your opinion of how negative swap spreads say about an economic recovery? an inverted yield curve has often been used as a sign to indicate a possible recession but not much has been explicitly covered regarding negative swap spreads.
    Apr 6, 2010. 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment