finmah@yahoo.com's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/58093/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/170295-airlines-some-costs-they-can-t-and-shouldn-t-cut?source=feed#comment-739172 739172
It would be interesting to calculate how much the mechanics make and compare education and training. ]]> Sun, 01 Nov 2009 10:47:35 -0500
It would be interesting to calculate how much the mechanics make and compare education and training. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166629-dow-10k-the-higher-they-rise-the-harder-they-fall?source=feed#comment-716309 716309
I was hoping you could be more aggressive in your positions - like selected stocks short if this is indeed a multitrillion dollar vapor bubble. Certainly you can find us something and yes timing is crucial but right now the majority of your cash and bond funds are losing 15-20% against other currencies.]]> Thu, 15 Oct 2009 10:42:09 -0400
I was hoping you could be more aggressive in your positions - like selected stocks short if this is indeed a multitrillion dollar vapor bubble. Certainly you can find us something and yes timing is crucial but right now the majority of your cash and bond funds are losing 15-20% against other currencies.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165918-jim-rogers-on-the-next-10-years?source=feed#comment-714777 714777
We cannot ignore Rogers comments -the problem with the US is we are far more fragile with our large consumer debt, massive structures built for gas powered vehicles, poor cities due to politics and the rise of our public sector workers to a centralized command economy.

China is the US of the 1940's- at times will make mistakes but the numbers are too big -tremondous work ethic and pride. Go back to the 1830 and China had Britain importing and taking all it's silver currency and together with India a large percentage of the worlds GDP. The last 50 years have been a hiccup. If you have a scenic home in a posh community learn Mandarin to close the sale in the next 10 years.

Since the American electorate now have great number of people who are disenfranchised, retired, or not working they vote people in who favor eradicating the volatility of the private sector at the expense of their currency and their next generations wealth- ala Europe -it makes sense to be involved in the commodities business like the Aussies,Canadiens, Norwegians-oil, Brazilians.
It will take us back to the 1810 economy with Britain and don't forget by then we will have the windmills to round out the scenery.
]]> Wed, 14 Oct 2009 08:42:46 -0400
We cannot ignore Rogers comments -the problem with the US is we are far more fragile with our large consumer debt, massive structures built for gas powered vehicles, poor cities due to politics and the rise of our public sector workers to a centralized command economy.

China is the US of the 1940's- at times will make mistakes but the numbers are too big -tremondous work ethic and pride. Go back to the 1830 and China had Britain importing and taking all it's silver currency and together with India a large percentage of the worlds GDP. The last 50 years have been a hiccup. If you have a scenic home in a posh community learn Mandarin to close the sale in the next 10 years.

Since the American electorate now have great number of people who are disenfranchised, retired, or not working they vote people in who favor eradicating the volatility of the private sector at the expense of their currency and their next generations wealth- ala Europe -it makes sense to be involved in the commodities business like the Aussies,Canadiens, Norwegians-oil, Brazilians.
It will take us back to the 1810 economy with Britain and don't forget by then we will have the windmills to round out the scenery.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163919-marc-faber-equities-safer-than-dollars?source=feed#comment-696630 696630
There are many nations that have a significant portion of their economy aimed at our markets - it is not going to change with a collapse in the US economy - it might even be aggravated. I think the false credit prosperity brought a small decoupling of emerging markets. But unfortunately the most unbearable argument is that we are all in this together and commodities such as metals and oil require growth in demand- not one time keynesian projects for simply sustaining current demand.]]> Wed, 30 Sep 2009 08:49:44 -0400
There are many nations that have a significant portion of their economy aimed at our markets - it is not going to change with a collapse in the US economy - it might even be aggravated. I think the false credit prosperity brought a small decoupling of emerging markets. But unfortunately the most unbearable argument is that we are all in this together and commodities such as metals and oil require growth in demand- not one time keynesian projects for simply sustaining current demand.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160456-is-the-u-s-dollar-finished?source=feed#comment-668317 668317
I constantly read about the demise of the dollar through foolish monetary policy but aren't all the foreign governs guilty of purposely keeping their own currency low to target exports here to the biggest market in the world. It is this paradox that keeps it a relative stalemate. This will continue UNTIL the intern countries start to develop more independance - is this occurring? Possibly with commodity boom- but it is best to see this exhibited in diversions in equity valuations between the countries.
]]> Wed, 09 Sep 2009 09:54:35 -0400
I constantly read about the demise of the dollar through foolish monetary policy but aren't all the foreign governs guilty of purposely keeping their own currency low to target exports here to the biggest market in the world. It is this paradox that keeps it a relative stalemate. This will continue UNTIL the intern countries start to develop more independance - is this occurring? Possibly with commodity boom- but it is best to see this exhibited in diversions in equity valuations between the countries.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156786-how-did-vermont-avoid-the-mortgage-meltdown?source=feed#comment-636305 636305
Having said that of course if national policies were enacted along Vermont's policies this supposedly forward thinking prudent lot would probably have a field day suing the big banks for "redlining" , racial discrimination, unaffordable housing stock, disenfranchisement and ignoring govern lending agencies. The housing prices have a much lower beta. It is beautiful but similar to Martha's Vineyard in duplicity.]]> Wed, 19 Aug 2009 09:39:10 -0400
Having said that of course if national policies were enacted along Vermont's policies this supposedly forward thinking prudent lot would probably have a field day suing the big banks for "redlining" , racial discrimination, unaffordable housing stock, disenfranchisement and ignoring govern lending agencies. The housing prices have a much lower beta. It is beautiful but similar to Martha's Vineyard in duplicity.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152121-blue-dogging-health-care?source=feed#comment-607846 607846
In the free market there are policies that are one tenth the cost of your average Cobra or group insurance - 1/10! That is with one simple fact you have a 10000 deductable. Here (like a 2000 deductable in auto) you have a free market - take insurance against what you cannot afford. Look at the vision market unbelievable drop in fancy eye doctors - go to Walmart for glasses.
But in some states you are forced at tax time to disclose and be penalized if you are being assessed in a free market Under the new government programs that wishes to include societies outlying costs as people fly in from around the world and throw their passport in the trash can.

This national effort is using the insurance scheme to back people into socialized medicine. I thought people distrust politicians - these creators of the bill will not be subject to this risk pool of a "ship of fools". Everything will be political - who you know what hospitals contribute to whose campaign etc.
It couldn't get more political when viagra and sex change operations are reimbursed and hearing aids are not.

It is classic since we have a politicians that sends their kids to private schools and works against charter school funding.

What is so hard about showing the consequences of this reform by pointing to foreign countries that already have done this? What are their issues and why the rush?]]> Thu, 30 Jul 2009 10:08:49 -0400
In the free market there are policies that are one tenth the cost of your average Cobra or group insurance - 1/10! That is with one simple fact you have a 10000 deductable. Here (like a 2000 deductable in auto) you have a free market - take insurance against what you cannot afford. Look at the vision market unbelievable drop in fancy eye doctors - go to Walmart for glasses.
But in some states you are forced at tax time to disclose and be penalized if you are being assessed in a free market Under the new government programs that wishes to include societies outlying costs as people fly in from around the world and throw their passport in the trash can.

This national effort is using the insurance scheme to back people into socialized medicine. I thought people distrust politicians - these creators of the bill will not be subject to this risk pool of a "ship of fools". Everything will be political - who you know what hospitals contribute to whose campaign etc.
It couldn't get more political when viagra and sex change operations are reimbursed and hearing aids are not.

It is classic since we have a politicians that sends their kids to private schools and works against charter school funding.

What is so hard about showing the consequences of this reform by pointing to foreign countries that already have done this? What are their issues and why the rush?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148401-effects-of-the-stimulus-package-felix-salmon-is-uncharacteristically-wrong?source=feed#comment-587280 587280
The logic that a government issuing checks out on a project basis does not and will not inspire business confidence or increase discounted cash flows beyond the scope of the project, lead to productivity enhancements even with alternative energy, nor could it ever match the scale required to rival the private sector.

The idea is that it will inspire private investment but any company relying upon government support rarely gets investor backing unless it pays a dividend. Add in the impact on the currency and the international investors are clearly more wary.
At the microlevel the multiplier effect is weak or nonexistent. With all these economists we need greater transparency in how markets develop.]]> Tue, 14 Jul 2009 09:52:18 -0400
The logic that a government issuing checks out on a project basis does not and will not inspire business confidence or increase discounted cash flows beyond the scope of the project, lead to productivity enhancements even with alternative energy, nor could it ever match the scale required to rival the private sector.

The idea is that it will inspire private investment but any company relying upon government support rarely gets investor backing unless it pays a dividend. Add in the impact on the currency and the international investors are clearly more wary.
At the microlevel the multiplier effect is weak or nonexistent. With all these economists we need greater transparency in how markets develop.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147047-dollar-s-days-of-dominance-are-over?source=feed#comment-575957 575957 Mon, 06 Jul 2009 14:16:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/146648-6-ways-to-short-the-obama-health-plan?source=feed#comment-573465 573465
Commercial Real Estate moguls get free depreciation against an appreciating asset, oil and gas get spec tax treatment and Disney gets special patent consideration and nonprofit get to invest off of their charter in speculative ventures.

But when the serious scientists that are trying to provide important cures well then everyone should tax]]> Fri, 03 Jul 2009 16:45:30 -0400
Commercial Real Estate moguls get free depreciation against an appreciating asset, oil and gas get spec tax treatment and Disney gets special patent consideration and nonprofit get to invest off of their charter in speculative ventures.

But when the serious scientists that are trying to provide important cures well then everyone should tax]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144402-15-possible-healthcare-breakout-stocks?source=feed#comment-567059 567059 Mon, 29 Jun 2009 12:08:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145789-california-s-default-is-certain?source=feed#comment-566829 566829
Your argument that high seven digit incomes has no support statistically. You could do an immediate asset tax of 50% of the every millionaire and you wouldn't come close to closing the gap even for a month. Show us the numbers of how the capital will stay in place for this new asset tax and show us how it will close the gap not just this year but as a sustainable revenue stream.
Why is this idea of rich so hard to determine before the elections it was indicated as over 250k in income but most deductions phase out after 150k.

The idea under liberal rules is that this wealth can be regenerated in a few years - when it sometimes takes generations of low taxes. The wealth- what is left - flees empowering the labor party even more- maybe this is Canada? With the productive savings element gone the disparity decreases and the poor become even more government dependant and poorer. I believe I saw after 40 years of reducing disparity in Cuba that the leader was listed as one of the wealthiest people in the world. Did Russian after 40 years reduce disparity or are they left with no middle class?

What ever happened to not taxing dividends (have the workers of companies get more return for their labor) and having interest payments on debt not tax deductable? Who will crush this idea- liberals. Why are we promoting massive debt at corp levels and presonal levels? Why do colleges extends loans that cannot be repaid? Why is the housing market similar to the 1929 stock ownership plan with 10% down and massive debt?

California wages, public pensions and housing markets are very highly priced - the equity that people have pulled from there is enormous. It is time to end the disparity in Calif. vs the rest of the states and have their asset prices and program costs equal to the rest of the average prices in the remaining states.

It is time to end the enormous wealth gap created in Calif as opposed to the other states and make them pay and not slip out due to the political importance of Calif to the Democrat party.



On Jun 28 03:11 PM Buckoux wrote:

> Sounds like you've got a real bad case of class envy, Jeff.]]> Mon, 29 Jun 2009 10:01:29 -0400
Your argument that high seven digit incomes has no support statistically. You could do an immediate asset tax of 50% of the every millionaire and you wouldn't come close to closing the gap even for a month. Show us the numbers of how the capital will stay in place for this new asset tax and show us how it will close the gap not just this year but as a sustainable revenue stream.
Why is this idea of rich so hard to determine before the elections it was indicated as over 250k in income but most deductions phase out after 150k.

The idea under liberal rules is that this wealth can be regenerated in a few years - when it sometimes takes generations of low taxes. The wealth- what is left - flees empowering the labor party even more- maybe this is Canada? With the productive savings element gone the disparity decreases and the poor become even more government dependant and poorer. I believe I saw after 40 years of reducing disparity in Cuba that the leader was listed as one of the wealthiest people in the world. Did Russian after 40 years reduce disparity or are they left with no middle class?

What ever happened to not taxing dividends (have the workers of companies get more return for their labor) and having interest payments on debt not tax deductable? Who will crush this idea- liberals. Why are we promoting massive debt at corp levels and presonal levels? Why do colleges extends loans that cannot be repaid? Why is the housing market similar to the 1929 stock ownership plan with 10% down and massive debt?

California wages, public pensions and housing markets are very highly priced - the equity that people have pulled from there is enormous. It is time to end the disparity in Calif. vs the rest of the states and have their asset prices and program costs equal to the rest of the average prices in the remaining states.

It is time to end the enormous wealth gap created in Calif as opposed to the other states and make them pay and not slip out due to the political importance of Calif to the Democrat party.



On Jun 28 03:11 PM Buckoux wrote:

> Sounds like you've got a real bad case of class envy, Jeff.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/143665-dr-stephen-leeb-on-commodities-and-inflation-is-he-a-genius-or-alarmist?source=feed#comment-552294 552294 But can anyone show me where they have seen a "decoupling" of foreign nations in regards to the economy? All of commodity pressure requires buying demand and consumption. I wish it were true that the investing world can compartilize into mortgage companies in Alberta or copper miners in Peru or builders in China. But if the last downturn in Nov showed- I simply don't see any evidence whatsoever.

The commodities the last few months went up with the US uptick - there has been no decoupling.

I hope that other nations can work around us - which would be beneficial but unfortunately I don't see a powerful world GDP without us. Maybe other nations should be careful about moralizing to us about overconsumption.






]]> Thu, 18 Jun 2009 13:23:09 -0400 But can anyone show me where they have seen a "decoupling" of foreign nations in regards to the economy? All of commodity pressure requires buying demand and consumption. I wish it were true that the investing world can compartilize into mortgage companies in Alberta or copper miners in Peru or builders in China. But if the last downturn in Nov showed- I simply don't see any evidence whatsoever.

The commodities the last few months went up with the US uptick - there has been no decoupling.

I hope that other nations can work around us - which would be beneficial but unfortunately I don't see a powerful world GDP without us. Maybe other nations should be careful about moralizing to us about overconsumption.






]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/141803-what-s-killing-the-u-s-dollar-and-its-impact-on-income-investors-and-markets?source=feed#comment-551988 551988
There are a couple ways to increase liquidity - issue debt or attract private capital through equity. Why do we have a tax structure that at every level promotes high amounts of leverage as opposed to equity participation? Even if house purchases require 20% that is far too much leverage along tax deductable as well. Corporations get a tax break from debt - where equity holders get double taxed.

Who voted against the tax relief for dividends. Can the mainstream media close the loop on this? What happened to making equity at the very least on par with the debt - (tax deduction for dividends). Equity is volatile but less troublesome than debt from a structural point of view as we are going to find out with a debt we cannot get rid of. And the argument that equity holders are in bigger trouble than debt right now is specious since it was general debt level that brought us here.

Maybe people should ask themselves do people who discourage workers from investing in their own company (401's are really decorative from meaningful investment) or their own country's means of production nervous that they will be held accountable for general domestic economic performance?
It is vote that needs to be explained I am sure the banking industry has something to do with it but maybe the other votes need to explain this philosophy of taxing the worker from participating in a companies rise in value.
]]> Thu, 18 Jun 2009 11:08:13 -0400
There are a couple ways to increase liquidity - issue debt or attract private capital through equity. Why do we have a tax structure that at every level promotes high amounts of leverage as opposed to equity participation? Even if house purchases require 20% that is far too much leverage along tax deductable as well. Corporations get a tax break from debt - where equity holders get double taxed.

Who voted against the tax relief for dividends. Can the mainstream media close the loop on this? What happened to making equity at the very least on par with the debt - (tax deduction for dividends). Equity is volatile but less troublesome than debt from a structural point of view as we are going to find out with a debt we cannot get rid of. And the argument that equity holders are in bigger trouble than debt right now is specious since it was general debt level that brought us here.

Maybe people should ask themselves do people who discourage workers from investing in their own company (401's are really decorative from meaningful investment) or their own country's means of production nervous that they will be held accountable for general domestic economic performance?
It is vote that needs to be explained I am sure the banking industry has something to do with it but maybe the other votes need to explain this philosophy of taxing the worker from participating in a companies rise in value.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/143928-how-to-profit-from-the-commercial-real-estate-fallout?source=feed#comment-551898 551898
Retail will not grow fast but people need to shop. Is our govern going to waste money by propping up comm real estate landlords so that they can charge 70 sq ft? It appears so. There is no way out - they cannot easily change the usage of the facility. Give up - let a judge decide the real rental rate and fill the mall. Shopping goes on in poorer countries - it just needs a much lower base.
]]> Thu, 18 Jun 2009 10:14:02 -0400
Retail will not grow fast but people need to shop. Is our govern going to waste money by propping up comm real estate landlords so that they can charge 70 sq ft? It appears so. There is no way out - they cannot easily change the usage of the facility. Give up - let a judge decide the real rental rate and fill the mall. Shopping goes on in poorer countries - it just needs a much lower base.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/143973-obama-goes-full-court-on-energy-legislation?source=feed#comment-551882 551882
The other insinuation is that they have to be mindful of their voters and therefore are concerned about the cost to consumers along with an untimely depressive effect on the economy. Does this mean the other group proposing this is doing the opposite?

Did the congressman who are pushing for this penalty tax on carbon just not endorse a trillion dollar stimulus that included widening, paving and building new roads and bridges on a massive scale? Does anyone have any idea how much money has been spent on promoting cars over the last 30 years only to turn around and tax the individual user.

Are there not industries that have a financial stake in this carbon tax such as alternative energy, rail, nuclear, and nat gas? This is not highlighted in such articles since this is all purportedly for the common good.

I think singling out Southern districts is distracting -because together with the Republicans they are the majority - it is the minority representation presenting this bill that needs to have their constituencies brought up for discussion. But then again that might damage the argument even further since a Kyoto agreement was voted on by the Senate around 1998 and I don't think anyone voted for it. Has anything dramatically changed since then?

]]> Thu, 18 Jun 2009 10:03:22 -0400
The other insinuation is that they have to be mindful of their voters and therefore are concerned about the cost to consumers along with an untimely depressive effect on the economy. Does this mean the other group proposing this is doing the opposite?

Did the congressman who are pushing for this penalty tax on carbon just not endorse a trillion dollar stimulus that included widening, paving and building new roads and bridges on a massive scale? Does anyone have any idea how much money has been spent on promoting cars over the last 30 years only to turn around and tax the individual user.

Are there not industries that have a financial stake in this carbon tax such as alternative energy, rail, nuclear, and nat gas? This is not highlighted in such articles since this is all purportedly for the common good.

I think singling out Southern districts is distracting -because together with the Republicans they are the majority - it is the minority representation presenting this bill that needs to have their constituencies brought up for discussion. But then again that might damage the argument even further since a Kyoto agreement was voted on by the Senate around 1998 and I don't think anyone voted for it. Has anything dramatically changed since then?

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135117-want-a-pension-over-100-000-be-a-government-worker-in-california?source=feed#comment-490058 490058
So when some poor private sector slob's children indicates to a college that they have saved 900k they are penalized as well as taxed by authorities on dividends and interest since their passive income tips them higher. Most private employees have no pensions and have to self finance their existence.

Compare this to TWO public sector individuals in a household they will receive over 125k. A pension fund must have over 1 million set aside for them maybe close to 2 million (don't forget health). Is this principle set aside disclosed to colleges for means tests? Is their interest and dividends taxed on this sum? Remember the private employee that tries to self finance his pension tries to create a net asset position as in NO mortgage. Nor can he receive a mortgage or even rent off his dividend income alone. Is this true with guaranteed state pensions?

Now watch what will happen as we run out of money- the govern workers will elect to take even more by creating a means test for soc sec recepients and the means test will penalize those with net asset. Who is eluding the wealth means test with this? Who is really disenfranchised?

]]> Tue, 05 May 2009 09:45:12 -0400
So when some poor private sector slob's children indicates to a college that they have saved 900k they are penalized as well as taxed by authorities on dividends and interest since their passive income tips them higher. Most private employees have no pensions and have to self finance their existence.

Compare this to TWO public sector individuals in a household they will receive over 125k. A pension fund must have over 1 million set aside for them maybe close to 2 million (don't forget health). Is this principle set aside disclosed to colleges for means tests? Is their interest and dividends taxed on this sum? Remember the private employee that tries to self finance his pension tries to create a net asset position as in NO mortgage. Nor can he receive a mortgage or even rent off his dividend income alone. Is this true with guaranteed state pensions?

Now watch what will happen as we run out of money- the govern workers will elect to take even more by creating a means test for soc sec recepients and the means test will penalize those with net asset. Who is eluding the wealth means test with this? Who is really disenfranchised?

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134927-critiquing-john-petersens-the-plug-in-vehicle-scam?source=feed#comment-488526 488526
These arguments are reminding me of most of the alternative energies arguments the most "effective" in achieving an objective is usually by far the most inefficient and impractical but no one in these debates wants to look "retro". And since public funding and initiatives are based on politicians whims they don't want to be eclipsed 30 years from now.

A case in point - if batteries become significantly more cost effective than oil at some future higher price than why are we encouraging people to drive more? More tires, asphalt, cars, and more utility power upstream. Yet doesn't our new policy to greater gas mileage in vehicles create more cruising rituals by lowering the cost per mile to operate a car? Brilliant.

Peterson is a pragmatist - something the wind industry could use. And this about our grandchildren's money floating around for legacy funding. So it is about time someone is creating a debate witht the lithium cause. If you want the public policy and hundreds of billions start proving with real facts - people are tired of emotional sermons.

I am raising an eyebrow if GM is asking for money and involved with advocating a particular approach. If we can't come to a solid conclusion then leave the private markets alone - and let them lose the money. ]]> Mon, 04 May 2009 09:42:42 -0400
These arguments are reminding me of most of the alternative energies arguments the most "effective" in achieving an objective is usually by far the most inefficient and impractical but no one in these debates wants to look "retro". And since public funding and initiatives are based on politicians whims they don't want to be eclipsed 30 years from now.

A case in point - if batteries become significantly more cost effective than oil at some future higher price than why are we encouraging people to drive more? More tires, asphalt, cars, and more utility power upstream. Yet doesn't our new policy to greater gas mileage in vehicles create more cruising rituals by lowering the cost per mile to operate a car? Brilliant.

Peterson is a pragmatist - something the wind industry could use. And this about our grandchildren's money floating around for legacy funding. So it is about time someone is creating a debate witht the lithium cause. If you want the public policy and hundreds of billions start proving with real facts - people are tired of emotional sermons.

I am raising an eyebrow if GM is asking for money and involved with advocating a particular approach. If we can't come to a solid conclusion then leave the private markets alone - and let them lose the money. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130519-taxpayers-contributing-to-record-bank-profits-and-other-frustrating-economic-developments?source=feed#comment-460301 460301
The market is telling us that whoever is holding the collateral is taking big risks and therefore deserves the higher premium in wide spreads. As for the govern directly loaning - politicians are not good at providing efficient allocation of captial as can be seen with Fannie. How would they ever raise rates when the time comes - they have an election every two years- something I am counting on.]]> Sun, 12 Apr 2009 08:30:44 -0400
The market is telling us that whoever is holding the collateral is taking big risks and therefore deserves the higher premium in wide spreads. As for the govern directly loaning - politicians are not good at providing efficient allocation of captial as can be seen with Fannie. How would they ever raise rates when the time comes - they have an election every two years- something I am counting on.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128305-home-prices-from-the-70s-a-good-investment?source=feed#comment-444030 444030
]]> Sun, 29 Mar 2009 11:51:55 -0400
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111130-thursday-outlook-another-bubble?source=feed#comment-433379 433379 Do you think WIP etf would add a possible hedge to the dollar decline?


On Mar 19 09:26 AM Chris B wrote:

> Let's hope for a return to inflation.
>
> The alternative is a Japan scenario or a depression, and an increase
> in the cost of servicing the national debt. I think the govt. gets
> this, which is why they are flooding the economy with dollars. If
> it takes a year or two of 8-10% inflation to get us out of this (which
> would only bring prices in line with what they would have been if
> deflation had never occurred) the government will accept that. After
> all, Paul Volker demonstrated that even persistent inflation can
> easily be killed by jacking up interest rates.
>
> I'm in TBT too, and took a decent hit (on paper) yesterday. This
> hit was perfectly offset by my gains (on paper) in TIP. Yet, in the
> long run, there is no contradiction in these investments. A return
> to even 3-4% sustained inflation would result in double-digit % gains
> to TIP prices and to funds that short regular treasuries that are
> currently yielding 3% for 20 years (!).
>
> The future has never been more obvious than it is now. The government
> is nearly unanimous in supporting expansionary policy. We can see
> an uptick in inflation from a mile away - even if it only ends up
> as a return to earlier low single digits levels. Yet, opportunities
> to exploit this dynamic abound.]]> Fri, 20 Mar 2009 09:19:16 -0400 Do you think WIP etf would add a possible hedge to the dollar decline?


On Mar 19 09:26 AM Chris B wrote:

> Let's hope for a return to inflation.
>
> The alternative is a Japan scenario or a depression, and an increase
> in the cost of servicing the national debt. I think the govt. gets
> this, which is why they are flooding the economy with dollars. If
> it takes a year or two of 8-10% inflation to get us out of this (which
> would only bring prices in line with what they would have been if
> deflation had never occurred) the government will accept that. After
> all, Paul Volker demonstrated that even persistent inflation can
> easily be killed by jacking up interest rates.
>
> I'm in TBT too, and took a decent hit (on paper) yesterday. This
> hit was perfectly offset by my gains (on paper) in TIP. Yet, in the
> long run, there is no contradiction in these investments. A return
> to even 3-4% sustained inflation would result in double-digit % gains
> to TIP prices and to funds that short regular treasuries that are
> currently yielding 3% for 20 years (!).
>
> The future has never been more obvious than it is now. The government
> is nearly unanimous in supporting expansionary policy. We can see
> an uptick in inflation from a mile away - even if it only ends up
> as a return to earlier low single digits levels. Yet, opportunities
> to exploit this dynamic abound.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124520-the-bubble-of-uncertainty-is-about-to-burst?source=feed#comment-417002 417002
How is a crash of 1000-3000 points at the introduction of the stimulus helpful toward any financial demographic -even taking into account the redistribution?

It shouldn't be difficult to at least stabilize the market if you have a trillion dollar stimulus plan presented to you by the future generations

Can anyone be honest about the free markets - for every cheat in the free markets can we find the same in the public sector particularly the ones that private jets in Washington.

Don't we have any examples of other markets and how they react to these ideologies. I suggest one look at europe or maybe telecoms - that have sig govern intervention or canadien royalty trusts.

Most of these investments have declined and then flatlined. If private capital is appropriately enticed to invest and create greater efficiencies it will help lower and middle class far more than a crash and rising unemployment. But only the communists and emerging markets which have lower tax rates understand this because they wish to raise their standard of living - not finger point over the remaining spoils of a previous generations work. It is time we get a plan that works for the middle and lower class - that is really what investors want.]]> Sat, 07 Mar 2009 07:12:08 -0500
How is a crash of 1000-3000 points at the introduction of the stimulus helpful toward any financial demographic -even taking into account the redistribution?

It shouldn't be difficult to at least stabilize the market if you have a trillion dollar stimulus plan presented to you by the future generations

Can anyone be honest about the free markets - for every cheat in the free markets can we find the same in the public sector particularly the ones that private jets in Washington.

Don't we have any examples of other markets and how they react to these ideologies. I suggest one look at europe or maybe telecoms - that have sig govern intervention or canadien royalty trusts.

Most of these investments have declined and then flatlined. If private capital is appropriately enticed to invest and create greater efficiencies it will help lower and middle class far more than a crash and rising unemployment. But only the communists and emerging markets which have lower tax rates understand this because they wish to raise their standard of living - not finger point over the remaining spoils of a previous generations work. It is time we get a plan that works for the middle and lower class - that is really what investors want.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120853-carbon-capping-debate-will-results-favor-wall-st?source=feed#comment-391690 391690
There is no race to the truth - without private industry research it is all political - the private groups really have no monetary incentive to fund billions for a overextrapolated doomsday scenerio.

And there is no one to rebut the arguments since the majority of meter. stations and researchers rely on federal grants and money - which undeniably means the politicians that fund it. Look at the "research" which was included as a part of our last chance for economic survival - in the big pork bill - not seperate.

There is a major effort to confuse carbon warming theory with the subset of air pollution over major cities - which of course contributes but two different arguments. Also there is another major effort to confuse global warming with energy efficiency - in many cases of course they work inversely - it is fiction one will lead to another - because wind, solar etc must be measured by resources expended ie costs- not just carbon output.
The biggest head fake going -


Once again why would some integrated be so against cap -if you reduce demand or tax - they know this is a political gerrymandered policy against primarily the US leaving out so many nations who will refuse to comply anyway that the value of the black gold reserves will rise enriching their assets.

How this relates to weaning off of foreign oil is another fake out.

If we were working in the private sector - people would do studies to see what the best alt solution is for develop. In political grab bags you take any idea that sell newspapers and fund them all simultaneously wind,solar,ethanol, geo etc as a lazy political expedient solution -buying votes everywhere.

To your point this is why we it is politics as usual. Politics is the last the last place this question should be resolved - we handed them the question? I believe there is not one engineer in the Senate!
]]> Tue, 17 Feb 2009 08:16:52 -0500
There is no race to the truth - without private industry research it is all political - the private groups really have no monetary incentive to fund billions for a overextrapolated doomsday scenerio.

And there is no one to rebut the arguments since the majority of meter. stations and researchers rely on federal grants and money - which undeniably means the politicians that fund it. Look at the "research" which was included as a part of our last chance for economic survival - in the big pork bill - not seperate.

There is a major effort to confuse carbon warming theory with the subset of air pollution over major cities - which of course contributes but two different arguments. Also there is another major effort to confuse global warming with energy efficiency - in many cases of course they work inversely - it is fiction one will lead to another - because wind, solar etc must be measured by resources expended ie costs- not just carbon output.
The biggest head fake going -


Once again why would some integrated be so against cap -if you reduce demand or tax - they know this is a political gerrymandered policy against primarily the US leaving out so many nations who will refuse to comply anyway that the value of the black gold reserves will rise enriching their assets.

How this relates to weaning off of foreign oil is another fake out.

If we were working in the private sector - people would do studies to see what the best alt solution is for develop. In political grab bags you take any idea that sell newspapers and fund them all simultaneously wind,solar,ethanol, geo etc as a lazy political expedient solution -buying votes everywhere.

To your point this is why we it is politics as usual. Politics is the last the last place this question should be resolved - we handed them the question? I believe there is not one engineer in the Senate!
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117615-getting-fired-up-on-cleaner-internal-combustion-technologies?source=feed#comment-370888 370888
if people drive x amount of miles per day - does increasing fuel economy reduce driving? Obviously it would be cheaper to drive so now people will be encouraged to drive the same or more even with an offsetting increase in gas. There will be an inverse effect on emissions - cheaper mileage expense more DRIVING - greater emissions.

If the gas price does rise - hostile nations gain revenue people can now offset the price increase with better fuel mileage.

Ca -clearly the most important issue is air pollution around the city -

The higher economy cars cost more to the consumer and impact car co and their research budgets for alt energies.

The fuel economy sometimes goes by category - now people will upgrade to bigger categories to gain interior space while gaining greater fuel economy.

The argument is increasing fuel economy will reduce overall consumption of gas - but this is not No 2heating oil for the home where demand is constant - it has behavioral demand characterstics such as cruising - home buying, second homes, vacation travel, no of household vehicles etc.

Overall as a policy for tens of millions car drivers - regulations such as these need more transparency.]]> Fri, 30 Jan 2009 09:08:20 -0500
if people drive x amount of miles per day - does increasing fuel economy reduce driving? Obviously it would be cheaper to drive so now people will be encouraged to drive the same or more even with an offsetting increase in gas. There will be an inverse effect on emissions - cheaper mileage expense more DRIVING - greater emissions.

If the gas price does rise - hostile nations gain revenue people can now offset the price increase with better fuel mileage.

Ca -clearly the most important issue is air pollution around the city -

The higher economy cars cost more to the consumer and impact car co and their research budgets for alt energies.

The fuel economy sometimes goes by category - now people will upgrade to bigger categories to gain interior space while gaining greater fuel economy.

The argument is increasing fuel economy will reduce overall consumption of gas - but this is not No 2heating oil for the home where demand is constant - it has behavioral demand characterstics such as cruising - home buying, second homes, vacation travel, no of household vehicles etc.

Overall as a policy for tens of millions car drivers - regulations such as these need more transparency.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117271-plug-in-natural-gas-hybrid-vehicles-a-game-changer?source=feed#comment-369682 369682
If you can count alot of vote capturing behind the new debt spending you are in business. But you need alot of votes - after all it is apparent now the coal and nuclear and oil industry shouldn't hold their breath. But don't forget they still need the midwest states therefore the ever "efficient" ethanol is still in their sites.

It looks like lawyers and their industry are still in charge of this party.
Business as usual with the added carnage of cynically capturing voting

Your gas hybrid is an excellent solution and solves many problems - but from the recent details of the spending bill one can gather that we can put to bed that it is big oil holding up the process and conspiring.

One thing I have not heard is that if we spend money on a poor solution or one that is too speculative and doesn't pan out - many generations still have to pay for this - there should be a benchmark of not just job creating but sustainability and payback otherwise these are our last chips.

]]> Thu, 29 Jan 2009 08:48:13 -0500
If you can count alot of vote capturing behind the new debt spending you are in business. But you need alot of votes - after all it is apparent now the coal and nuclear and oil industry shouldn't hold their breath. But don't forget they still need the midwest states therefore the ever "efficient" ethanol is still in their sites.

It looks like lawyers and their industry are still in charge of this party.
Business as usual with the added carnage of cynically capturing voting

Your gas hybrid is an excellent solution and solves many problems - but from the recent details of the spending bill one can gather that we can put to bed that it is big oil holding up the process and conspiring.

One thing I have not heard is that if we spend money on a poor solution or one that is too speculative and doesn't pan out - many generations still have to pay for this - there should be a benchmark of not just job creating but sustainability and payback otherwise these are our last chips.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114192-a-fuel-debate-between-t-boone-pickens-vs-fred-smith?source=feed#comment-352235 352235
Both plans have too much sense as a migration to better tech down the road though diesel is really overhyped particularly with other collateral air issues. In pickens plan one cell tower is fought over in certain towns -here we are going to ridge the most majestic mountains in the Rocky mtns for thousands of miles - not butying that they will be hidden in only valleys -ask other environ groups.

Nobody mentions if we do allow draconian carbon taxes to establish we effectively will be writing down our own proven and unproven reserves in oil and gas in the US - sounds like a massive massive trillion dollar hit to the oil industry and US treasury and our future generations. We never gave our industry the chance to establish a sovereign wealth fund like other oil producing nations where many generations are enriched by slowing oil develop in other nations through cartel pricing and praising global warming to foreigners and drilling like mad in their waters. ]]> Sun, 11 Jan 2009 09:07:14 -0500
Both plans have too much sense as a migration to better tech down the road though diesel is really overhyped particularly with other collateral air issues. In pickens plan one cell tower is fought over in certain towns -here we are going to ridge the most majestic mountains in the Rocky mtns for thousands of miles - not butying that they will be hidden in only valleys -ask other environ groups.

Nobody mentions if we do allow draconian carbon taxes to establish we effectively will be writing down our own proven and unproven reserves in oil and gas in the US - sounds like a massive massive trillion dollar hit to the oil industry and US treasury and our future generations. We never gave our industry the chance to establish a sovereign wealth fund like other oil producing nations where many generations are enriched by slowing oil develop in other nations through cartel pricing and praising global warming to foreigners and drilling like mad in their waters. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112982-environmentalism-may-face-major-setback-in-2009?source=feed#comment-344487 344487 Fri, 02 Jan 2009 16:19:10 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/110337-three-inconvenient-energy-policy-truths?source=feed#comment-326914 326914
Have these legal prophets held a job or managed a billion dollar budget?Or do they show up for vote whenever it suits their political purpose. Barely anyone tracks their voting record. Please spare us the intelligence of senators.

The reality is everyone bought into the new energy president but all the stocks related to energy have dived since he became elected. Wind, Solar, geothermal, nat gas, oil, hybrids -they don't meet the holy grail - but somehow- like Iraq and world opinion- it all will be solved by Jan 20.
Remeber answers are to be revealed later.

The answer is obvious do whatever the majority of other nations do (maybe because they outscore us consistently on the high school testing). For Norway they handed out the Nobel peace prize for global warming yet at the same time they accumulated the second largest sovereign wealth fund of over 400 billion by drilling responsibly along the most pristine coastline in the world. Or France by developing nuclear for over 80% of energy. Or Canada by drilling anywhere feasible while the getting is good including tar sands and shale and uranium. And China and Brazil by nurturing relations with any nation with resources.

Hey global warming votes? That is easy - keep the US the single biggest consumer -out of the market- it lowers the price and allows for a strategic realignment of wealth while we debate for forty years.

I guess the most important thing is will countries like us - yea for one night.

]]> Thu, 11 Dec 2008 22:53:23 -0500
Have these legal prophets held a job or managed a billion dollar budget?Or do they show up for vote whenever it suits their political purpose. Barely anyone tracks their voting record. Please spare us the intelligence of senators.

The reality is everyone bought into the new energy president but all the stocks related to energy have dived since he became elected. Wind, Solar, geothermal, nat gas, oil, hybrids -they don't meet the holy grail - but somehow- like Iraq and world opinion- it all will be solved by Jan 20.
Remeber answers are to be revealed later.

The answer is obvious do whatever the majority of other nations do (maybe because they outscore us consistently on the high school testing). For Norway they handed out the Nobel peace prize for global warming yet at the same time they accumulated the second largest sovereign wealth fund of over 400 billion by drilling responsibly along the most pristine coastline in the world. Or France by developing nuclear for over 80% of energy. Or Canada by drilling anywhere feasible while the getting is good including tar sands and shale and uranium. And China and Brazil by nurturing relations with any nation with resources.

Hey global warming votes? That is easy - keep the US the single biggest consumer -out of the market- it lowers the price and allows for a strategic realignment of wealth while we debate for forty years.

I guess the most important thing is will countries like us - yea for one night.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108727-a-little-known-fact-and-good-news-about-this-crisis?source=feed#comment-318720 318720
Isn't it amazing people laugh at the margin of 10% for stocks in the 20's led to problems and was later changed but residential mortg today - has the same margins with greater participation and much greater debt amounts - 300k etc. This along with mark to market - a disaster.

Another joke is the carbon footprint business - watch the new codes will not ever encourage renting in a higher density city dwelling - has to be a subdivision 50 miles from work.

]]> Tue, 02 Dec 2008 08:44:48 -0500
Isn't it amazing people laugh at the margin of 10% for stocks in the 20's led to problems and was later changed but residential mortg today - has the same margins with greater participation and much greater debt amounts - 300k etc. This along with mark to market - a disaster.

Another joke is the carbon footprint business - watch the new codes will not ever encourage renting in a higher density city dwelling - has to be a subdivision 50 miles from work.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108426-how-wall-street-has-failed-the-individual-investor?source=feed#comment-318665 318665
It wasn't the lcds or furnishings or your brokers commission or ceo pay. Look at the tax structure- Congress never considered a deduction for a family to rent instead of buy. Free interstate highways system to everywhere promoting massive travel and public employees getting 1.2 million aligned for themselves for pensions without saving it themselves but the private sector gets 2000 IRA deduction.

Ceo pay, middleman and the rich are always targets because it sells in all countries but look at what politicians have done -not promised]]> Tue, 02 Dec 2008 07:38:29 -0500
It wasn't the lcds or furnishings or your brokers commission or ceo pay. Look at the tax structure- Congress never considered a deduction for a family to rent instead of buy. Free interstate highways system to everywhere promoting massive travel and public employees getting 1.2 million aligned for themselves for pensions without saving it themselves but the private sector gets 2000 IRA deduction.

Ceo pay, middleman and the rich are always targets because it sells in all countries but look at what politicians have done -not promised]]>