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Dow 10k: The Higher They Rise, The Harder They Fall

Very good article - it gets back to the decoupling argument of emerging markets - and you are right there is no evidence whatsever to support the inter markets pulling the US train at 25% of the world economy based on 70% consumerism. If you look at many stocks you will see little volume but a tickling of higher prices for many months. There is of course the buy and hold crowd still there and too big to admit mistakes invest crowd waiting for the eventual return they are not selling which allows this tickling of prices. But after a 40% rebound - well .

I was hoping you could be more aggressive in your positions - like selected stocks short if this is indeed a multitrillion dollar vapor bubble. Certainly you can find us something and yes timing is crucial but right now the majority of your cash and bond funds are losing 15-20% against other currencies.

Jim Rogers on the Next 10 Years

As with everything there might be some hyperbole. At the very least we should look at English, Mandarin and Spanish as covering the largest section of the world. The key to Mandarin is watching it become important for other Asian countries - which it is. Mandarin websites and programming are starting to make inroads.

We cannot ignore Rogers comments -the problem with the US is we are far more fragile with our large consumer debt, massive structures built for gas powered vehicles, poor cities due to politics and the rise of our public sector workers to a centralized command economy.

China is the US of the 1940's- at times will make mistakes but the numbers are too big -tremondous work ethic and pride. Go back to the 1830 and China had Britain importing and taking all it's silver currency and together with India a large percentage of the worlds GDP. The last 50 years have been a hiccup. If you have a scenic home in a posh community learn Mandarin to close the sale in the next 10 years.

Since the American electorate now have great number of people who are disenfranchised, retired, or not working they vote people in who favor eradicating the volatility of the private sector at the expense of their currency and their next generations wealth- ala Europe -it makes sense to be involved in the commodities business like the Aussies,Canadiens, Norwegians-oil, Brazilians.
It will take us back to the 1810 economy with Britain and don't forget by then we will have the windmills to round out the scenery.

Marc Faber: Equities Safer than Dollars

Acceptable inflation 2-7% annually and you have the case for commodities and export based countries. Any extreme devaluation/inflation will drop emerging markets like a rock which in turn create problems for their currency.

There are many nations that have a significant portion of their economy aimed at our markets - it is not going to change with a collapse in the US economy - it might even be aggravated. I think the false credit prosperity brought a small decoupling of emerging markets. But unfortunately the most unbearable argument is that we are all in this together and commodities such as metals and oil require growth in demand- not one time keynesian projects for simply sustaining current demand.

Effects of the Stimulus Package: Felix Salmon Is Uncharacteristically Wrong

Forget about the debt required or deficit or crafty political timing or political earmarks or favored construction projects that are anti global warming such as highways.

The logic that a government issuing checks out on a project basis does not and will not inspire business confidence or increase discounted cash flows beyond the scope of the project, lead to productivity enhancements even with alternative energy, nor could it ever match the scale required to rival the private sector.

The idea is that it will inspire private investment but any company relying upon government support rarely gets investor backing unless it pays a dividend. Add in the impact on the currency and the international investors are clearly more wary.
At the microlevel the multiplier effect is weak or nonexistent. With all these economists we need greater transparency in how markets develop.

15 Possible Healthcare Breakout Stocks

You want us to invest in healthcare - but you don't know what to make of a very controversial plan that has been in the news since the campaign and will require a political majority. We have heard from every corner that this is a wonderful plan that will reduce costs. That should impact some of these stocks. I think the best advice is to follow the money on this one.

Want a Pension Over $100,000? Be a Government Worker in California

It appears that government and union workers have significantly high pensions and health benefits this includes our Senators and Reps who have seperate systems. These systems are not adulterated by mass illegal immigration or poor economies. The biggest problem is the phantom tax loophole that exists - they are not disclosed as measurements of wealth.

So when some poor private sector slob's children indicates to a college that they have saved 900k they are penalized as well as taxed by authorities on dividends and interest since their passive income tips them higher. Most private employees have no pensions and have to self finance their existence.

Compare this to TWO public sector individuals in a household they will receive over 125k. A pension fund must have over 1 million set aside for them maybe close to 2 million (don't forget health). Is this principle set aside disclosed to colleges for means tests? Is their interest and dividends taxed on this sum? Remember the private employee that tries to self finance his pension tries to create a net asset position as in NO mortgage. Nor can he receive a mortgage or even rent off his dividend income alone. Is this true with guaranteed state pensions?

Now watch what will happen as we run out of money- the govern workers will elect to take even more by creating a means test for soc sec recepients and the means test will penalize those with net asset. Who is eluding the wealth means test with this? Who is really disenfranchised?

The Bubble of Uncertainty Is About to Burst

You mentioned that the plan was "liberal" and therefore automatically the assumption is benevolence toward the middle and lower classes.

How is a crash of 1000-3000 points at the introduction of the stimulus helpful toward any financial demographic -even taking into account the redistribution?

It shouldn't be difficult to at least stabilize the market if you have a trillion dollar stimulus plan presented to you by the future generations

Can anyone be honest about the free markets - for every cheat in the free markets can we find the same in the public sector particularly the ones that private jets in Washington.

Don't we have any examples of other markets and how they react to these ideologies. I suggest one look at europe or maybe telecoms - that have sig govern intervention or canadien royalty trusts.

Most of these investments have declined and then flatlined. If private capital is appropriately enticed to invest and create greater efficiencies it will help lower and middle class far more than a crash and rising unemployment. But only the communists and emerging markets which have lower tax rates understand this because they wish to raise their standard of living - not finger point over the remaining spoils of a previous generations work. It is time we get a plan that works for the middle and lower class - that is really what investors want.

Paul Krugman + Al Gore = The Way Forward

The beauty of capitalism is it minimizes government and political picks and shovels. Follow the money and the solution will be found. With 7 trillion on the side - how is building a bridge or highway going to entice the money in to the economy except to start a canteen business for the workers. Didn't we just get through bashing Alaska for the bridge to nowhere. Now the bridge miraculously goes somewhere. Look at the big dig in Boston - did adding an extra highway lane and putting a highway under the city - entice investment or did it just reroute truckers throught the city increasing a carbon print. The original 2 billion bid turned to 18 billion and now ceiling tiles are falling down.

Construction unions are the beneficiaries along with the typical political hacks who havent' been voted out of office for 20 years.

What do you do when expanded commercial construction cannibalizes the rents and destroys the banks and reits AGAIN!

Gore preaches global warming but how many miles of interstate infrastructure did he push through and help create this asphalt jungle dependant upon autos?

Public infrastructure projects does not restore confidence to any sector. A liberal politician from England just the unthinkable to attract capital back in the system - reduce taxes and govern spending. When was the last time govern spending was cut?

Another Bloodbath?

Don't forget there is trillions on the sidelines and most of the nations want this realignment to occur fast so they can carry on. Look for even the labor party (Dem)victory to make motions for reasonableness in it's first few days - because it needs to jobs to protect with tariffs and small business to tax.

Once some clarity ( most likely gov proposals for the ST) is restored the flight of capital and confidence will slowly be restored there is no other choice - For me the stock market has been leading the way into the recession but no one knows the severity - sounds like an opportunity. Some stocks are at 15 year lows even with a cheaper dollar. In the end you don't have much of a choice when you are ignoring 5%-6% div yields on good companies. When you see the first M and A - watch the rush.

No one mentions that if the structure of the US business environ was changed with no cap gain, no div tax, reduction in bus spending, slashing gov payrolls, the dow would shoot to 13000 overnight and help gov revenue.But I am only reciting what we insist emerging markets do with our IMF parameters and bailouts all with a great history of success. The US gov and it's many minions in Congress do not take the medicine it doles out.

Public work projects like the bloated 18 billion BIG DIG does not get the 7 trillion in private money off the sidelines. With the exception of some canteen trucks private money does not invest alongside one-time boon doggle construction projects. They only buy votes -again history in Brazil, Arg, Korea bear this out.

Preparing for the Fall, Part II

Not so simple - the markets demise will be energy not the banks. Our lifestyle is currently at risk and this will be the shock around the world - so a stock collapse is a possibility. But don't forget - a very large part of the world is on fire and they are not going away in their rickshaws - they are going to get cars or scooters. The have massive trade surpluses even in bad times and large foreign reserves. The cat is out of the bag and I am suspecting large takeovers in many sectors - the valuations are getting rather low.

Options Trader: Tuesday Outlook

The "wrong direction" poll is the biggest sham ever put on the American - it captures disaffected groups from both political parties plus it doesn't measure the popularity of certain issues. Currently the majority of Americans favor securing the borders, English as an official language, energy independance and drilling off the coastlines, reducing taxes, school vouchers etc etc - no wonder people think they are heading in the wrong direction.

Congress makes the laws - the president is in charge of the armed forces and security of the nation.

Congress right now is dominated by a political party that has a far lower approval rating than Bush. Bush has been a lame duck for two years. Bush has been blamed for hurricanes, global warming, risking soc sec by privatizing it, destroying public schools by testing, etc

The new "change" party has been in power for two long years and is great at deflecting any real issues.

Who just voted in a bloated ethanol bill with payouts to all the flyover states over the Pres veto? Who will increase taxes on top of the second highest corp tax rate in the world? Look at the Pharmas - who is socializing medicine? Who restricts drilling along the coastline while foreign nations drill it dry from Cuban waters.

This sham poll question has been used for twenty years and it indicates very little. Congress has been in charge of redistributing taxpayers money now for two years. If you want change it will be to change Congress as well.

The Economy is Spelled with a W

There is the valuation of the stock market - which might be W shaped - a possbile scenerio. But stocks reflect expectations not what actually occurs - it is possible that with emerging markets - we just flatline on growth for most of the world - but you are leaving out a possible decline in oil - particularly if we discover some exciting new breakthrough or oil find on the energy front.

Comparing Clinton and Bush on Income Taxes

But all of the comments on income taxes -the hidden joke since no tax gouger likes to tell us - is when do you enter a "wealthy bracket"?

Hey why disclose before you are elected that you are targeted for redistribution - that takes the fun out of things.

If some of us remember financial aid applications in college - you will realize the biggest problem is identifying a resource rich student - you can't determine wealth by income - not easy to really target the rich. So all this talk that income tax and numerous brackets target the rich is nonsense and many people know it.

Most definitions of wealthy imply someone who has enough assets that they don't have to work and can live comfortably therefore if you want to redistribute the rich then tax assets not marginal income.

Not young professionals who have 150k in school debt and make 100k living in a big city and brown bagging it.

Compare this to kids who inherit large estates and become yoga instructors or secretaries who have millions in stock options at certain companies - or farmers with large unrealized gains on land with modest incomes. Many get by with modest incomes and low taxes.

Focus on assets

Now that would take guts - tax people who are already rich based on their assets! Every wonder why tax gougers in Congress are reluctant to do this - it might impact their OWN estate planning.

The benchmark for a real successful redistribution plan will have the affect of having the rich flee the country - but who cares if you barely pay taxes to begin with.

That comparison is with a Republican congress that caved - can you imagine what it will be like with a Dem president and veto proof Dem congress -look for massive disincentives for capital formation and business growth.