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Dow 10k: The Higher They Rise, The Harder They Fall

Very good article - it gets back to the decoupling argument of emerging markets - and you are right there is no evidence whatsever to support the inter markets pulling the US train at 25% of the world economy based on 70% consumerism. If you look at many stocks you will see little volume but a tickling of higher prices for many months. There is of course the buy and hold crowd still there and too big to admit mistakes invest crowd waiting for the eventual return they are not selling which allows this tickling of prices. But after a 40% rebound - well .

I was hoping you could be more aggressive in your positions - like selected stocks short if this is indeed a multitrillion dollar vapor bubble. Certainly you can find us something and yes timing is crucial but right now the majority of your cash and bond funds are losing 15-20% against other currencies.

Thursday Outlook: Another Bubble?

nice thinking -tip and tbt - I will add to tips (already in tbt)
Do you think WIP etf would add a possible hedge to the dollar decline?


On Mar 19 09:26 AM Chris B wrote:

> Let's hope for a return to inflation.
>
> The alternative is a Japan scenario or a depression, and an increase
> in the cost of servicing the national debt. I think the govt. gets
> this, which is why they are flooding the economy with dollars. If
> it takes a year or two of 8-10% inflation to get us out of this (which
> would only bring prices in line with what they would have been if
> deflation had never occurred) the government will accept that. After
> all, Paul Volker demonstrated that even persistent inflation can
> easily be killed by jacking up interest rates.
>
> I'm in TBT too, and took a decent hit (on paper) yesterday. This
> hit was perfectly offset by my gains (on paper) in TIP. Yet, in the
> long run, there is no contradiction in these investments. A return
> to even 3-4% sustained inflation would result in double-digit % gains
> to TIP prices and to funds that short regular treasuries that are
> currently yielding 3% for 20 years (!).
>
> The future has never been more obvious than it is now. The government
> is nearly unanimous in supporting expansionary policy. We can see
> an uptick in inflation from a mile away - even if it only ends up
> as a return to earlier low single digits levels. Yet, opportunities
> to exploit this dynamic abound.

Trading Obama: Solar Stocks, GM Debt, Ambac Calls, Lorillard and Goldman Puts

Some nice ideas - but

still have a problem with the solar crowd - why is every solar long all over the map with a basket of stocks to recommend? It appears that this will be dilutive to the price swing and why not just TAN Etf.

I am tired of chasing govern intervention plays in insurance banking clean coal carbon tax guns pharma solar geo housing tobacco. I feel Americans really got duped with this election. If you want to chase policy stocks history will show (just like Fannie Mae and 4 triliion homeowner votes) they will capture votes FIRST particularly union, second is destroying or minimizing the private sector and third is effectiveness for reelection purposes.

A case in point are the altern energy they are down with a very favorable political win -

I do find your ideas very refreshing and to the point - I wonder how you feel about gun manufac - swhc

Also where is the REIT business going to go - is it going to be sued into oblivion for trial lawyer votes - is it a short

You definitely are right about GM - destroy private investors save the bonds and buy the votes

What about oil drillers will they have to politically contribute to continue or will they be sued and move to Dubai

Pause For Concern On Chinese Currency ETN

MS default is an outlying issue and how is everyone here assuming a put or short sell with massive negative sentiment already would hedge them? The slightest change in this position is a loss. The currency appreciation vs credit risk MS seem uncorrelated - they can both move against you easily.

How about a HNP the utility with a dividend - fast growing country - mainly domestic revenue -over long term -