NOWHEREMAN

Optimism in China's Oil Demand Growth

When 15 to 20 million people move from farms to newly constructed cities the size of Philadelphia on an annual basis and are expected to continue doing so for another 15 years, I would indeed consider this to be a "re-allocation" of growth. The new transplants will need everything. Walking to work will not be an option. They will not be able to grow their own food, go to the well for water or run a generator for power.

Re-allocations of this size are happening annually.

The City of Beijing was around 20 miles square some 10 years ago. It is now around 50 miles square, 60 in one direction 50 in another. Walking is definitely not an option.

I doubt whether Global demand was raised by China alone, but I do believe they were and will continue to be a big influence.

In the last few days the IMF has released Global expectations for GDP, 3.0 vs 3.7. The 3.0 includes Recessions in the West or negative GDP.

On Thursday night, Bloomberg Asia had a leading Chinese economist forecasting 2009 GDP at 9.5%.
Contrary to popular American Media outlets, Chinese exports to the US are only around 21% of their total output. Eliminating the US entirely, which will not happen, reduces their annual GDP from an 11-12 rate to 9-10.

Forced Selling has lowered all Commodity Prices. If anything, Economic growth in Asia will accelerate because of it. They do not have to have "credit" to finance their Internal Growth.

To date, The financial meltdown has created losses of 24 Billion primarily from foreign equity losses.