NOWHEREMAN

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

I never said to superimpose them on each other, I said that they were virtually identical. As graphs, you can lay them side by side or one below the other.

Mr. Fry has shown you multiple graphs of differing sectors with timeframes which are 6 months, some 5 yrs, others inbetween. try superimposing them on each other. The peaks will be all over the place, the end result is virtually the same so far.

The Peak to Nadir times are different, If you gave me two graphs and told me to superimpose on each other with the end result that they were identical, I would tell you that they were two graphs of the same index over the same timeframe and that you were trying to play a joke on me.

The EAFE index looks to have peaked in Oct. of 07 while Brazil took til about June of 08 before dropping.

All my excuses aside, I meant to use 1967 to 1977 which included Nifty Fifty Bubble and subsequent bear, the new 1970-71 bull and the 1973-74 bear. The first ended 18 months later, the second two years later. The second dropped faster and further. The speed and steepness of the 73-74 Bear has the closest resemblance to what is currently in progress. The slide took about a year to go down rather slowly but in 1974, it was a falling knife for most of the year, the drop ended about 15% lower.

I blew it. I apologize for giving the wrong coordinates and not explaining that I was focusing on the 1974 drop itself.