NOWHEREMAN's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/58104/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/113125-risk-aversion-trading-expected-to-return?source=feed#comment-346761 346761
You now note support at $845-850, closed at lower end. When it reaches $810, if it does not hold, what will be your next downside target?]]> Mon, 05 Jan 2009 16:29:37 -0500
You now note support at $845-850, closed at lower end. When it reaches $810, if it does not hold, what will be your next downside target?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113191-gold-due-for-a-pullback-silver-approaching-resistance?source=feed#comment-346744 346744
I hinge everything on continuing dollar strength coupled with the deleveraging process which isn't close to completion. AM looking for the demise of at least 40% of all hedge funds.]]> Mon, 05 Jan 2009 16:08:04 -0500
I hinge everything on continuing dollar strength coupled with the deleveraging process which isn't close to completion. AM looking for the demise of at least 40% of all hedge funds.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113088-a-trend-follower-positions-for-2009?source=feed#comment-346705 346705
I especially liked your Caveat: "These conditions can last longer than many expect or wish".

David, If Nov. was indeed the Bottom, extrapolating the DOW forward a few years, I hope it goes to a new all time high. If it stalls around 12,000 and starts down, Bob Prechter might finally be proven right. IMO]]> Mon, 05 Jan 2009 15:31:01 -0500
I especially liked your Caveat: "These conditions can last longer than many expect or wish".

David, If Nov. was indeed the Bottom, extrapolating the DOW forward a few years, I hope it goes to a new all time high. If it stalls around 12,000 and starts down, Bob Prechter might finally be proven right. IMO]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113172-someone-has-to-lend-in-2009-ideas-to-profit?source=feed#comment-346676 346676
Too bad you went back to your regular dogmatic stance in number 3. "Oil will rise against all currencies" .What will oil be priced in as it does so? If Gold, what will gold be priced in?

You no longer advocate a strong position in Gold in all of its forms and have decided to favor other areas for investment. Good, Great even.

What is your Asset Allocation? You know, The percentage of assets in the various sectors listed above?

And what is your Time Frame for all of the above?







]]> Mon, 05 Jan 2009 14:55:12 -0500
Too bad you went back to your regular dogmatic stance in number 3. "Oil will rise against all currencies" .What will oil be priced in as it does so? If Gold, what will gold be priced in?

You no longer advocate a strong position in Gold in all of its forms and have decided to favor other areas for investment. Good, Great even.

What is your Asset Allocation? You know, The percentage of assets in the various sectors listed above?

And what is your Time Frame for all of the above?







]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113149-gold-recycling-threatens-demand-supply-equation?source=feed#comment-346630 346630
Will a default by the COMEX drive gold prices up or will the perception be that "even Gold cannot be trusted"?]]> Mon, 05 Jan 2009 14:16:54 -0500
Will a default by the COMEX drive gold prices up or will the perception be that "even Gold cannot be trusted"?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113145-debunking-the-gold-bears-main-argument?source=feed#comment-346624 346624 I Just believe the Dollar goes up short term.

Roger: The author is very specific.The Paragraph I quoted from starts with "Although the inverse relationship between the US dollar and gold is true most of the time..."

He does not differentiate, he just believes that Both can/will rise at the same time.

I believe in his 2nd paragraph: "Since the USD and Gold are inversely correlated..."

The Dollar will rise for a 2nd year in a row. My opinion, to at least 92, possibly to parity.

When it starts to decline, and it will, 70-72 will not hold.
I am looking for the 40-50 area.

IMHO]]> Mon, 05 Jan 2009 14:05:36 -0500 I Just believe the Dollar goes up short term.

Roger: The author is very specific.The Paragraph I quoted from starts with "Although the inverse relationship between the US dollar and gold is true most of the time..."

He does not differentiate, he just believes that Both can/will rise at the same time.

I believe in his 2nd paragraph: "Since the USD and Gold are inversely correlated..."

The Dollar will rise for a 2nd year in a row. My opinion, to at least 92, possibly to parity.

When it starts to decline, and it will, 70-72 will not hold.
I am looking for the 40-50 area.

IMHO]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113191-gold-due-for-a-pullback-silver-approaching-resistance?source=feed#comment-346602 346602
Higher highs and Higher lows for its entire existence. With the latest low being the third point in its uptrend.

Deeply Oversold (MACD)and Positive Cash flow for the last 5 months or so.

Personally, I don't think gold goes to $500. But am looking for DZZ to hit a new high.

Too many gold/inflation now, comments. imo]]> Mon, 05 Jan 2009 13:43:13 -0500
Higher highs and Higher lows for its entire existence. With the latest low being the third point in its uptrend.

Deeply Oversold (MACD)and Positive Cash flow for the last 5 months or so.

Personally, I don't think gold goes to $500. But am looking for DZZ to hit a new high.

Too many gold/inflation now, comments. imo]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113107-139-names-on-etf-deathwatch?source=feed#comment-346219 346219
Or do I have to look through the Prospectus of each?

Thank you.]]> Mon, 05 Jan 2009 08:58:19 -0500
Or do I have to look through the Prospectus of each?

Thank you.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113145-debunking-the-gold-bears-main-argument?source=feed#comment-346209 346209
For Gold to move higher, it has to do so against some measure. Since it is predominantly priced in USD, then that is the currency it will have to move higher against.

"Believe it or not, even in 2008, Gold gained 5.8% while the US dollar index gained 7.5%." Translated, gold Fell against the USD by 1.7%.

Keep spinning, Even Pamela Aden disagrees with you.]]> Mon, 05 Jan 2009 08:50:53 -0500
For Gold to move higher, it has to do so against some measure. Since it is predominantly priced in USD, then that is the currency it will have to move higher against.

"Believe it or not, even in 2008, Gold gained 5.8% while the US dollar index gained 7.5%." Translated, gold Fell against the USD by 1.7%.

Keep spinning, Even Pamela Aden disagrees with you.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113175-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news?source=feed#comment-346190 346190
There aren't any details and in any case, if Republicans believe that it won't work. They will want The New Administration to take full credit.

Altering Tax withholding rules, will not impact the unemployed. Last Year's lump sum payments provided the stimulus needed for an economy which was already in a recession. It worked, maybe only for a quarter, but it worked.

Two $150 Billion lump sum payments spaced 3 months apart could help keep the economy going long enough to implement the second part of the package and revive spending.

IMO]]> Mon, 05 Jan 2009 08:29:40 -0500
There aren't any details and in any case, if Republicans believe that it won't work. They will want The New Administration to take full credit.

Altering Tax withholding rules, will not impact the unemployed. Last Year's lump sum payments provided the stimulus needed for an economy which was already in a recession. It worked, maybe only for a quarter, but it worked.

Two $150 Billion lump sum payments spaced 3 months apart could help keep the economy going long enough to implement the second part of the package and revive spending.

IMO]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113163-exxon-apostasy-a-closer-look-at-the-oil-giant-s-real-valuation?source=feed#comment-346171 346171
IMO]]> Mon, 05 Jan 2009 08:03:35 -0500
IMO]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113191-gold-due-for-a-pullback-silver-approaching-resistance?source=feed#comment-346163 346163
Take a look at DZZ and then make a decision. ]]> Mon, 05 Jan 2009 07:50:22 -0500
Take a look at DZZ and then make a decision. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113032-gaza-war-expect-a-spike-in-oil-gold?source=feed#comment-346160 346160
Higher highs and higher lows since introduction.]]> Mon, 05 Jan 2009 07:43:41 -0500
Higher highs and higher lows since introduction.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113149-gold-recycling-threatens-demand-supply-equation?source=feed#comment-346154 346154
Silver coins are really hard to find?

Yeah, Right]]> Mon, 05 Jan 2009 07:34:38 -0500
Silver coins are really hard to find?

Yeah, Right]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113149-gold-recycling-threatens-demand-supply-equation?source=feed#comment-346149 346149
The offers usually included items up to $5,000. Now they have many above $10,000...$11,500 reduced to $8,200.

This is a high end retailer of quality goods.]]> Mon, 05 Jan 2009 07:23:19 -0500
The offers usually included items up to $5,000. Now they have many above $10,000...$11,500 reduced to $8,200.

This is a high end retailer of quality goods.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112653-the-gold-to-oil-ratio-does-matter?source=feed#comment-346144 346144
LOL

When Russia Invaded Georgia, The USD rose against all currencies including GOLD.]]> Mon, 05 Jan 2009 07:00:55 -0500
LOL

When Russia Invaded Georgia, The USD rose against all currencies including GOLD.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113102-could-gold-be-2009-s-trade-of-the-year?source=feed#comment-346054 346054 Mon, 05 Jan 2009 01:35:06 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113097-double-digit-dividends-linn-energy-dow-chemicals-40-86-strategic-income-fund?source=feed#comment-346050 346050 Mon, 05 Jan 2009 01:24:24 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113124-iraq-production-conservation-could-keep-oil-price-in-check-for-years?source=feed#comment-346046 346046 They are cutting output. They are leaving the oil in the ground. IT IS not coming out. Cut means less Production.

So why don't you put all of your smarts together and explain to the poor simpleton how Oil which is no longer coming out of the ground is depleted?

The IEA report issued in Nov.,2008, was forecasting for a period of 25 years. 2006-2030 and projecting demand increases of 1.6% a year at the time. The current projections call for a decline in demand for 2009.

The same report, "the worldwide decline rate for existing production is 6.7% increasing to 8.6% in 2030".

Existing production. Go to Kingsfield site for the report.]]> Mon, 05 Jan 2009 01:19:16 -0500 They are cutting output. They are leaving the oil in the ground. IT IS not coming out. Cut means less Production.

So why don't you put all of your smarts together and explain to the poor simpleton how Oil which is no longer coming out of the ground is depleted?

The IEA report issued in Nov.,2008, was forecasting for a period of 25 years. 2006-2030 and projecting demand increases of 1.6% a year at the time. The current projections call for a decline in demand for 2009.

The same report, "the worldwide decline rate for existing production is 6.7% increasing to 8.6% in 2030".

Existing production. Go to Kingsfield site for the report.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112994-denison-mines-surges-for-no-apparent-reason?source=feed#comment-346034 346034
NXG, speculative also, at .90 has a pe of 9.0.]]> Mon, 05 Jan 2009 00:49:09 -0500
NXG, speculative also, at .90 has a pe of 9.0.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113042-pamela-aden-ready-for-a-rebound?source=feed#comment-346029 346029
"since they rarely make mistakes, I would follow their lead but not if the Dollar goes up..." my specific words.

PA on the USD: "The dollars' strenght has been crisis related.

PA on gold above:"...so its always going to be the currency in time of need when the dollar is not doing so well." She goes on to say that she thinks the dollar will go down.

So if you believe in the Aden Sisters and PA' views specifically, be advised that if the dollar goes up GOLD will Not do well.

Meanwhile, the discussion was about NXG about which I responded but did not introduce.

]]> Mon, 05 Jan 2009 00:44:00 -0500
"since they rarely make mistakes, I would follow their lead but not if the Dollar goes up..." my specific words.

PA on the USD: "The dollars' strenght has been crisis related.

PA on gold above:"...so its always going to be the currency in time of need when the dollar is not doing so well." She goes on to say that she thinks the dollar will go down.

So if you believe in the Aden Sisters and PA' views specifically, be advised that if the dollar goes up GOLD will Not do well.

Meanwhile, the discussion was about NXG about which I responded but did not introduce.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113039-week-in-review-new-year-of-fits-and-starts-likely?source=feed#comment-345975 345975
Come on Pinelli, what's your forecast for 2009 or will you wait till its over.?

What degree did you receive your Bachelor of Arts in?
Did you start investing in 1979 or in 1968?

You have stated that your Profession is in the investment world, are you certified? Its not in your profile? Don't remember that do you? One of hundreds of missives, most very pretentious.

Accounting? Do you happen to have a degree in accounting? Operating earnings allow for dividend payments, cash flow only denotes the excess of cash revenues over the cash outlays in a given period of time.

Canadian Royalty Trust according to their Charters must pay dividends that are at least 50% of their Earnings, not their Cash Flow.

This is 2009, will Linn Energy continue to hedge expected production for the following year, that which is not already hedged for 2010 as management has acted in the past?

If they do, according to your outlook for oil, they will be losing money in 2010.

]]> Sun, 04 Jan 2009 22:58:09 -0500
Come on Pinelli, what's your forecast for 2009 or will you wait till its over.?

What degree did you receive your Bachelor of Arts in?
Did you start investing in 1979 or in 1968?

You have stated that your Profession is in the investment world, are you certified? Its not in your profile? Don't remember that do you? One of hundreds of missives, most very pretentious.

Accounting? Do you happen to have a degree in accounting? Operating earnings allow for dividend payments, cash flow only denotes the excess of cash revenues over the cash outlays in a given period of time.

Canadian Royalty Trust according to their Charters must pay dividends that are at least 50% of their Earnings, not their Cash Flow.

This is 2009, will Linn Energy continue to hedge expected production for the following year, that which is not already hedged for 2010 as management has acted in the past?

If they do, according to your outlook for oil, they will be losing money in 2010.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113032-gaza-war-expect-a-spike-in-oil-gold?source=feed#comment-345765 345765
Relmor: disinformation is one thing, outright lies are another. IMO]]> Sun, 04 Jan 2009 17:39:15 -0500
Relmor: disinformation is one thing, outright lies are another. IMO]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113124-iraq-production-conservation-could-keep-oil-price-in-check-for-years?source=feed#comment-345760 345760
The estimates provided by the IEA where based on a period of time prior to 2006. Included in their 25 year projections, was one very important assumption.

This was that the oil fields would be fully operational. This is not the case now as decreases in demand are prompting production reductions.

If it remains in the ground, the depletion rate decreases.

The old projection is no longer valid. But this is common sense applied to a 25 year projection which was bound to be incorrect just because of the longevity involved.

Realsit: "and production rates can't fall off at existing wells". What if they already have, big time considering the big reduction in refinery utilization.

I am not saying that oil depletion has stopped, all I'm saying is that it has slowed and will continue to slow as economies worldwide continue to slow. The demand side continues to decline.

IMHO]]> Sun, 04 Jan 2009 17:27:14 -0500
The estimates provided by the IEA where based on a period of time prior to 2006. Included in their 25 year projections, was one very important assumption.

This was that the oil fields would be fully operational. This is not the case now as decreases in demand are prompting production reductions.

If it remains in the ground, the depletion rate decreases.

The old projection is no longer valid. But this is common sense applied to a 25 year projection which was bound to be incorrect just because of the longevity involved.

Realsit: "and production rates can't fall off at existing wells". What if they already have, big time considering the big reduction in refinery utilization.

I am not saying that oil depletion has stopped, all I'm saying is that it has slowed and will continue to slow as economies worldwide continue to slow. The demand side continues to decline.

IMHO]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113097-double-digit-dividends-linn-energy-dow-chemicals-40-86-strategic-income-fund?source=feed#comment-345738 345738
Market Ace: when you look at the 10k s of these structures, you will find there is a big difference between operating earnings and the amount paid from these earnings than what is shown in the quotes on Yahoo Finance, MSN Money and MarketWatches' Big Charts.

All of them have negative earnings, MSN does give you an Expected forward PE for LINE...8.8.

You will get similar readings down the line. It is an accounting nightmare, but TurboTax should be able to help you out.



]]> Sun, 04 Jan 2009 16:59:12 -0500
Market Ace: when you look at the 10k s of these structures, you will find there is a big difference between operating earnings and the amount paid from these earnings than what is shown in the quotes on Yahoo Finance, MSN Money and MarketWatches' Big Charts.

All of them have negative earnings, MSN does give you an Expected forward PE for LINE...8.8.

You will get similar readings down the line. It is an accounting nightmare, but TurboTax should be able to help you out.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112999-will-we-have-a-good-2009-not-if-history-is-any-guide?source=feed#comment-345719 345719
If Alt. Energy, fully agree.]]> Sun, 04 Jan 2009 16:39:11 -0500
If Alt. Energy, fully agree.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113042-pamela-aden-ready-for-a-rebound?source=feed#comment-345481 345481
Since they rarely make mistakes, I would follow their lead but not if the USD goes up, only when it drops again.

NXG has an annual output of 400,000 oz. of gold, their reserves are being expanded, the Auction Rate problem reamed expansionary projects but cash flow will allow for survival until the Auction Rate principal is reacquired.

States are still settling on this issue with the underwriters.]]> Sun, 04 Jan 2009 12:23:22 -0500
Since they rarely make mistakes, I would follow their lead but not if the USD goes up, only when it drops again.

NXG has an annual output of 400,000 oz. of gold, their reserves are being expanded, the Auction Rate problem reamed expansionary projects but cash flow will allow for survival until the Auction Rate principal is reacquired.

States are still settling on this issue with the underwriters.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113032-gaza-war-expect-a-spike-in-oil-gold?source=feed#comment-345454 345454
If there is a dollar rally I expect it to move from 73 to 80.(boy was I off then, but new figures make for new projections)

....longer term 40-50 is foreseeable.

I was a big time Bull on oil and gold in June, July, even Aug. of last year. Do not believe what you are told by someone else. My posts are there for all to see.

Times change, I saw the chart patterns change but since 90% of my portfolio was in the Canroys and I was playing with the house's money on them, I was willing to ride it out.

I will not stupidly distrust my charts again.]]> Sun, 04 Jan 2009 12:06:17 -0500
If there is a dollar rally I expect it to move from 73 to 80.(boy was I off then, but new figures make for new projections)

....longer term 40-50 is foreseeable.

I was a big time Bull on oil and gold in June, July, even Aug. of last year. Do not believe what you are told by someone else. My posts are there for all to see.

Times change, I saw the chart patterns change but since 90% of my portfolio was in the Canroys and I was playing with the house's money on them, I was willing to ride it out.

I will not stupidly distrust my charts again.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113032-gaza-war-expect-a-spike-in-oil-gold?source=feed#comment-345376 345376
Figures Don't lie. Reality VS projections, I'll take reality.

Kathy: I'll be holding Gold, oil, silver, various long ETFs and ETNs.

I just do not consider the deleveraging process to be over, so I expect the dollar to rise to at least 92, possibly Parity. Given that this is my belief, I don't see a reason to change my holdings.

I have a Dollar stop loss, 78 from where we are. I am not risking a lot.

The scenario you paint is a Gimme. What you say WILL occur, eventually. I projected a USD drop to 40, months ago. That is my ultimate target. I will find that comment for you if you so desire.

We agree on direction, we disagree on timing.

IMHO

]]> Sun, 04 Jan 2009 11:16:06 -0500
Figures Don't lie. Reality VS projections, I'll take reality.

Kathy: I'll be holding Gold, oil, silver, various long ETFs and ETNs.

I just do not consider the deleveraging process to be over, so I expect the dollar to rise to at least 92, possibly Parity. Given that this is my belief, I don't see a reason to change my holdings.

I have a Dollar stop loss, 78 from where we are. I am not risking a lot.

The scenario you paint is a Gimme. What you say WILL occur, eventually. I projected a USD drop to 40, months ago. That is my ultimate target. I will find that comment for you if you so desire.

We agree on direction, we disagree on timing.

IMHO

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113035-where-will-oil-end-2009?source=feed#comment-345333 345333
The real question then is have the World's economies stopped contracting? I posit that conditions continue to worsen.

I also believe that $40 oil will eventually be $80 then $160 then who knows. Timing then is the issue.

I've held my CanRoys for 6 years, and will hold them until they are either bought out or become full fledged corporations with tremendous assets. Get paid while you wait. The world will recover. Timing is not an issue when the payouts will last at least 2 more years.

I Expect oil will be much, much higher by 2011. Get paid while you wait even if it takes another 18 months to double.

IMO

]]> Sun, 04 Jan 2009 10:47:53 -0500
The real question then is have the World's economies stopped contracting? I posit that conditions continue to worsen.

I also believe that $40 oil will eventually be $80 then $160 then who knows. Timing then is the issue.

I've held my CanRoys for 6 years, and will hold them until they are either bought out or become full fledged corporations with tremendous assets. Get paid while you wait. The world will recover. Timing is not an issue when the payouts will last at least 2 more years.

I Expect oil will be much, much higher by 2011. Get paid while you wait even if it takes another 18 months to double.

IMO

]]>