NOWHEREMAN

Get Out of Commodities - Barron's

To me the fact that this a "Barron"s Cover" only means one thing.

Look for a major jump in commodity prices in conjunction with a continued dive in the US currency. Barron's Covers are notorious, over time, for being incorrect in their assesment of a change in sentiment.

If you have a Bear on the cover, the Bear market of the time is almost over, ditto a Bull. Nothing has changed, Barrons is a contrary indicator at best.

Bullish/bearish analysis of favorable vs unfavorable stories on various companies during the year are never tabulated to see if the analysis was correct.

Because the same people continue to work at Barrons year after year translates into No One Else wants them. Just because a stopped watch is correct every 24 hours, doesn't mean it is useful.

I personally like Barrons. I like the way they put together their Market statistics. I like having the facts about the previous week summarized in a cohesive manner. Abbleson can make it on his own but many times he is years early. I have read his commentaries for over 30 years. His insights are really informative but he is not always right.

What happens to commodity prices when the US accelerates out of a recession? Do they go down because of strenghtening US currency or up regardless because of an increase in the usage of dwindling supplies?

Natural Gas Weekly Storage Update

While interesting, your analysis seems to neglect some points of interest.

All of the charts point to lower storage. While I agree that on a short term basis, say 5 weeks, Nat. gas should trend lower. The fact remains that in May hurricane forecasts will be issued. Personally, I can't see the gulf being free of hurricanes three years in a row.

Speculation will keep prices above where they should be. Additionally, starting in 2009, Gazprom will stop accepting US $$$ for its gas. And $ priced gas will easily breach $10. On a BTU basis, nat. gas is extraordinarily cheap even at that level relative to oil.

Asian Economies Will Provide Strong Support for the Commodities Boom

All too true. Alibaba, the chinese version of Amazon, has about 700,000 companies which it finds buyers/sellers for their products. Quotes in Dollars are good for one week only. It used to be one to two months. The currency of choice is the Euro, although in many cases it is the home currency of buyer/seller.

The demise of the dollar is here.

Meanwhile, 35 years ago there was this Pie(the kind you eat) and there were 6 people eating it. Today there are 12 people eating from a much smaller pie because no one had the foresight to make another pie.

Now lets equate this pie to the availability of natural resources. Twice as many people smaller pie...hmmm.

No matter how many bakers there are trying to make more pies, they will not be able to keep up with demand because they have to tap into the original pie to get their ingrediants.

Burst Bubble? Commodities' Long-Term Story Remains Intact

On top of all the smoke and mirrors by the Fed, This Week Was The Quadruple Witch. Lots of profit taking by both shorts and longs.

The next couple of weeks will involve Window Dressing and end of Quarter contract expirations.

Meanwhile, the financial problems continue.
The Fed has opened the discount window...yes...But only for Investment Grade collateral.

The majors would have to mark to market to find out what was still Investment Grade. The small regional banks will take off since they have suffered from "guilt by association"

Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot: Key Support Lines Challenged

What I see are short term chart interpretations.

These aren't to be used by anyone but traders.

Your placement of support lines is also suspect.
For instance: Coffee has NOT broken a slightly lower uptrend line using the May 23rd date. Corn has support where is broke out above the previous high of 450. Orange juice never had an uptrend and is still trying to find a bottom. Copper's minor move above previous short term resistance will be tested when it goes down to the uptrend line started in Dec. of 07. We are talking 3 months here but thats how trendlines are born.

I could go on and on. The charts are being interpreted in a specific way. While support for copper is considered to be the flat top. Silver's break above its wedge and where initial support will be is not the uptrend line.

All I have said is an opinion...Charts are subject to interpretation and therefore, the interpretation of the chartist involved. To find support/resistance, I use a minimum of 3 years. Short term formations like copper's Cup with Handle are just that...short. Copper hit $4 a few years ago. It has not broken through resistance. I have been charting for over 35 years and I still make Major Interpretive mistakes.

A Warning for U.S. Dollar Bears and Commodity Bulls

While you are right that we will eventually have a correction in commodities and a measured dollar contra
move, your time horizon is suspect. The oil chart shows a 2 year initial leg but our current leg is only a little over a year long. The line you draw above the current leg should be below signifying where support is. A resistance line can be drawn parallel to it from the 2004-2006 leg. This is the potential trading range which is off your chart. What can drive oil up there?

How about the first hurricane in three years in the Gulf?

Is Oil Overpriced at $105/Barrel?

just read Manny O's response......

Europe does more business with the Middle East than it does with the US.

Japan does more business with China than with the US...

Times have changed. The US used to be 40% of the global economy...it is now approaching 20%....

What do we export Manny? Certainly not much in the way of Goods.

What does the rest of the world need that we have?

And when will tariffs start on what we do export as we deliberately devalue the Dollar.

Is Oil Overpriced at $105/Barrel?

Gazprom has already announced that they will not accept dollars in 2009.

The Chinese currency has appreciated more that 10% against the dollar in the last year, it is anticipated to appreciate more than 10% this year.

The Yen has appreciated over 15% in the last 6 months.

I expect full scale intervention might stall its decline or maybe a war somwhere...but time is not on the side of the US dollar....just like it wasn't on the side of the British Pound when it was once the world's reserve currency.

Two Explanations for Surging Oil Prices

In reality, the Mideast is increasing its internal usage of oil far faster than China...take a look at the infrastructure in Dubai.

Does anyone really think the other kingdoms are content and will sit idly on the side while Dubai takes center stage in the region.

I hate to say it but I am starting to believe the Nuclear Plant in Iran IS for domestic power. But Iran cannot admit that in a few years, it will cease exports because of internal consumption demands. So it is trying to conceal this fact with FACE saving sabre rattling.

Platinum and Palladium: Where to from Here?

The Chinese are on a clean air campaign.

In the 70's, Palladium was the catalytic converter of choice but since it was far more expensive than platinum, car makers made the switch.

As more cars are purchased in China, Platinum has been moving up for a few years. I expect platinum will stabilize but palladium has just made its first initial upward thrust.

I would use dollar cost averaging to buy Palladium...it doesn't matter in what form...ingots, mining shares, heck...even jewelry.

Use any

Outlook for Oil: 2008 Thus Far and a Preview of Coming Attractions

All electric cars are a solution of sorts. Altair Nano(ALTI) and Advanced Battery(ABAT) have been developing long lasting, short recharging ion lithium batteries.

The big problem, if they ever come into fashion, will be the power grid's ability to recharge them.

ABAT is a Chinese company which is providing 3,000 electric buses for the olympics.

Altair is in the same business but has recently developed a one Megawatt battery for AES.

Disclaimer: I own both stocks for the long haul.

Is Harvest Energy Trust's Premium Valuation Justified?

Its irrational to look at any of the Canroys as anything but Independent oil companies with massive exploratory assets.

With oil headed to $150-200 within the next 5 years, most of them will either be bought for cash, merge with major oils who have nowhere left to look or set up master limited partnerships elsewhere.

The oil resource war has just begun.