NOWHEREMAN

The Sun Is Not Also Rising Over Solar Stocks

firechief: you hit it on the head in your 2nd post. Why would I want to buy solar stocks now while the Bears are rampaging among them forcing price declines?

Waiting for them to stop destroying solar companies is a better option at this point. And it does create greater value for the patient investor.

Dollar cost averaging on the way down is one way of investing. I prefer a different route. I would rather miss the first 10% of upside and then dollar cost average on the way up.

The Sun Is Not Also Rising Over Solar Stocks

PS, I love the Solar sector. I especially like YGE and TSL. I just would like to see some of these stocks go sideways for a while instead of whipsawing everyone with lower lows.

China wants solar to provide 20% of their energy needs within 10 to 20 years. They have an energy policy. YGE and TSL are both Chinese and vertically integrated but after having invested some in the mid-teens, I am unwilling to invest more until I "see the whites of their eyes", so to speak.

I am not against the Solar Sector, I just want to see it stabilize first.

The Sun Is Not Also Rising Over Solar Stocks

Go for it. Buy em. do it now. don't wait.

John, you should know better. You have seen first hand that Technology alone is not sufficent to make a stock go up.

r u serious, I notice ONE thing about your post. You are defintely not interested in the sector. You r not serious enough to put forth any idea whatsoever.

In Bear Markets, even good companies go down.
Anyone hear of a Company named du Pont. Been around for a few years, PE of 8.22. It just broke to a 13 year low. Chemical Company, feedstock oil, profits will surely go up since their raw material prices are going down. Instead, this grand old company is tanking.

Take the cue, don't get involved with Solar Yet, emphasis on yet. I'd love to be able to emphasize words in these posts.

Hey! ruserious, do you know how to underline words in these Posts? Maybe you can help me.

The Sun Is Not Also Rising Over Solar Stocks

Instead of Importing, The Middle East will be exporting.

FYI, currently the Mid East provides 4% of the Worlds Aluminum Smelting, They expect to increase this to 10% within 15 months. Aluminum is an energy intensive Industry.
The warmongering Iran which last week stated that they should attack Israel before they get attacked is in the process of building 8 steel production plants simultaneously. Kuwait is Building its 4 th Major Refinery.

Everyone seems to be focusing on the cities being built in the Middle East. No one seems to focus on the Industrial Complex being built at the same time.

The Sun Is Not Also Rising Over Solar Stocks

Bob: from the tone of your response, you must own one or more of these Solar stocks and just "don't" get it.

The Article gives you a list of Solar stocks which have all been reamed. All were down 50% or more before "ANY" analyst came out with the View that they will be facing hard times. That's normal.

This happened in the "Internet, Housing, Ethanol, Financial, Commodity" Bubbles before the Solar turnaround to the Downside. Each of them had nowhere to go but up and each has Tanked. Solar hasn't been "Singled" out, it is just the latest in a string of sectors where all of the Solar stocks rose in tandem just because the Company Had the Name Solar attached to it. Now they have to prove that their earnings match the previous Hype. If they do, those that do will be bid up again BUT don't expect them all to match what was previously expected in the current Economic environment.

What don't you understand about "Financial Crisis" and "Credit Crunch". Solar has a Great future.

I know it has a Great Future because the Middle Eastern Country of Dubai has started construction of that area's largest Solar complex. A one Million square meter Facility which is expected to be finished within 2 years and will be able to produce Panels as large as 5.7 square meters. They do not have Environmental, credit or energy constraints. They will be able to produce a lot cheaply. That translates into stiff competition just a few years down the road. This is a Country doing the Financing and Construction not a Company.

It is something the US should be doing now but "one crisis at a time" and who can we "Blame Now" seems to be the Motto here.

I guess that you want to blame somebody. Blaming analysts is Good but you should be blaming them for not telling you to get out 6 months ago rather than after "the horse has left the barn".

Solar Cycles and Stocks: The Sun Also Rises

corn ethanol. The great alternative. The darling of the Greens. Stocks double, triple and go splat. Why? Too many companies emerging within an ever increasingly crowded field.

The Solar field is expanding rapidly. But the number of enthusiasts is the same. Those people who were going to be converted to the Technology have been converted. So the question becomes which stocks are going to survive because this is another Bubble.

They go up for no reason other than they have Solar in their names. The PE ratios, if they even have them, are astronomical. (not all, just most) For all of these companies to live up to expectations being built into them is equal to that of the DotCom era. It won't happen. To be sure, there will be winners but don't look for all of them to be. They are alternative energy plays. They go up/down depending on what Oil does.

Lets say there is a global recession, Oil drops to $80. Do any of you actually believe Wind or Solar stocks will move up inspite of a decrease in spending for alternative energy sources which cost more than their Oil counterparts. Especially in a country which does not have an energy policy. The Solar companies which have new Tech., usually have more expensive Tech which will save/produce more in the long run but installations will go to the Lowest Bidders. Spain has reversed course and Germany is about to; no more subsidies.

You can't expect all of these stocks to outperform just because the Current Climate is favorable. Take a look at all of the Corn Ethanol stocks. Remember the LNG fever that drove stocks like Chienere Energy (LNG) to the stars? Look were it started, went and with Terminal in place, is now.

Solar Competition will heat up and prices of goods sold will come down, accross the board. The companies which survive will be the vertically integrated low cost producers. Look at Boeing, loved by everyone, went from $45 to $100 and down to $60 because it relied on external suppliers.

The vertically integrated Solars are in short supply. It would also benefit those who are in Countries with Energy Policies in place.

This is why I went with YGE, I don't look for it to double. I look for it to go up 400% from here.

Solar Cycles and Stocks: The Sun Also Rises

Don't count YGE out.

The One thing that all Solar Energy stocks have in common is ?. Solar panels, yup, thats the play. They sit out there 24/7 usually in arid conditions. Guess what, they have to be cleaned. Once a week, depending on conditions like sand storms, someone will go out to clean them, they will use the liquid of choice, WATER, and considering the locations, all of the water will be lost due to evaporation.

Now you know why T. Boone has been buying up water rights in the most arid parts of the country.

Most of you should have read articles by now about the 21st Century's next Oil. Water is in short supply around the world. Millions of panels. Think about not what Solar costs currently or how its costs compare to current output VS Coal. Think instead of the expenses of keeping those panels clean with a resource that several states are already in Courts trying to obtain the rights to for their citizens.

Lets say you use something other than water to clean these panels, the odds are pretty good that whatever it is, it will be oil based.