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  • Sherlock Holmes Encounters J.C. Penney [View article]
    Retail Maven,

    Your position all along has been that JCP goes down. If AntMIgs fails to see this I suggest he use a level across the top of his monitor.

    I know that you use options to trade and they are complicated by the time element. I have been right so many times on market direction only to be wrong on the time. You and I have commented on the possibility of JCP going below $2. I made the prediction that JCP would go to the low $20,s and although this decline has taken much longer than I imagined I stand by that possibility.
    There are still over a third of the shares short according to Yahoo and that is a possible catalyst for a rise in share price. But that is getting way ahead of ourselves. We have to get a low first. AntMIgs has not been interpreting your articles as I have.
    Jan 5, 2015. 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sherlock Holmes Encounters J.C. Penney [View article]
    Retail Maven,

    It is good to hear from you again.

    I am strictly a technical man but even I wonder what is going through the JCP's boards mind. I doubt that Sol Shenk (Big Lots) would be interested in JCP's junk merchandise if he were still alive. But rapid liquidation is exactly what I see that should have happened to the inventory to prevent snatching what life is left in the chain. Either the board is stupid or they are convinced that the buying public is stupid and so far the buying public has taken them to the woodshed.

    It is as if they don't recognize the problem as lack of value on an incredibly horrible merchandise selection. I for one would love to see JCP turn things around but I have to believe that the current board is totally inept.
    Jan 4, 2015. 06:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney - More Likely To Hit $50 Than $0 [View article]
    Hi Achilles,
    I agree with you on the upside potential that JCP has but I disagree with you that the bottom is in. There could be, and I expect that there will be a bit more upside but the bottom is not in for JCP.
    Jun 11, 2014. 08:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Countdown At J.C. Penney, An Opportunity For Speculators [View article]
    RM,
    "Reporters like Dante predict $22 per share. This prediction makes me wonder how observers make conclusions."
    If you recall I am looking for the low $20's as well. Your comment was "when pigs fly" and I enjoyed the humor.
    I don't know what Dante is using to come up with his prediction but mine is strictly from a technical perspective. I admit that what I see could break down and the target not be realized but until it does that's my story and I'm sticking to it. In the mean time there is a lot of price action to be accomplished. Some up and a lot down. We agree on the down part although I think it could be late fall before that occurs. Timing is elusive though so I just wait.
    May 29, 2014. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Countdown At J.C. Penney, An Opportunity For Speculators [View article]
    RM
    I just thought that I would share my thoughts with you.

    I don't know if it is valid or not but JCP looks to be showing a broadening formation. If you bring up a 2 hour chart you can see it very well. This suggests that JCP could have a 5th wave higher to the $10.50 to $11.00 area. If this does occur that would be the place to short I believe. I think that a November expiration would give it time to work as I believe the market in general will be up and down until then.

    I have been watching for a sell signal but if this works formation works out then I would jump in with both feet.
    May 23, 2014. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Countdown At J.C. Penney, An Opportunity For Speculators [View article]
    RM

    I read in your articles about the fundamentals, personal likes and dislikes, management shortfalls, etc., and the faith of all that take the time to write in what they say. This is called sentiment. Now not everyone writes and gives you their perspective but it is registered in the daily price action. All of the knowledge in the market is registered in this price action - but not in articles such as this. I am coming to have great respect for your analysis and those who write from a truly analytical perspective. There is some rich commentary in some of these comments.

    Whatever the fundamental analysis produces it is sentiment that drives the market. Technical analysis is the only thing that gives us an inkling to what sentiment is and technical analysis is only as good as the guy or gal doing the analysis. These analytical short comings are what gives technical analysis a bad name and no one is correct 100% of the time but it does give you entries and exits to minimize loses.

    I am currently expecting JCP to flirt with the $10 area before tanking to new lows possibly by July. At that point the sentiment will be so extreme that all of the sellers should be through selling leaving only buyers. From the pattern formation to date, and you have to remember that all of the price information is not in and will not be until my anticipated bottom is in (if it occurs), and it gives me a price target in the low $20s. If that does happen there will be pigs flying I hear ( :.

    Now those are predictions from my technical perspective. For those who swear by fundamental analysis I give you (IOC) Take a look at the fundamentals there. The company has a -.83 cents a share and is trading around $58 dollars a share and Yahoo finance has a one year target of $101 dollars. http://yhoo.it/RD9QIo

    Now I ask you, What is at work here, fundamentals or sentiment?
    May 11, 2014. 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Countdown At J.C. Penney, An Opportunity For Speculators [View article]
    RM,
    I hope you don't get discouraged by some of the remarks. We have an opportunity here for discovery if we stick to analysis. I think that you have tremendous experience to draw from and enjoy your writing even if I am strictly tech analysis. We have had fun with this one haven't we.
    May 7, 2014. 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Countdown At J.C. Penney, An Opportunity For Speculators [View article]
    Retail Maven,
    Good to hear from you again. I still do not have a sell signal but strictly from a technical perspective, if I am correct, it would appear that JC Penney has an appointment in the sub $2 area. So maybe the earnings report may not be so good. That's my story and I'm sticking to it for a time longer until proven wrong.

    If you wanted to take a gamble on the down side you could buy August puts a couple of dollars out of the money so that if we are wrong the delta is so low that you could exit with some of your money and if I am right it would be very profitable. Just a suggestion.

    Now on the flip side if I am right about the technical information after the bottom is put in don't get in the way of JCP on the way up.
    May 6, 2014. 06:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Sometimes The Market Gives You A Gift To Buy [View article]
    dg
    I'll do it.
    Apr 16, 2014. 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Sometimes The Market Gives You A Gift To Buy [View article]
    I am going to be bullish just as soon as the bottom is in and we have not been close yet. Let's look at it again in June maybe.

    Your targets look close but just early.
    Apr 15, 2014. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: What To Do After Yesterday's Plunge [View article]
    I guess I will be the negative comment here. Technically speaking, the move above $9 appears to be corrective and not impulsive. I think by June or July we could see a bottom in JCP but we are going to see much lower prices by then.

    As to the RSI, on a couple readings the RSI was down to 16 and the price continued to move down after a brief pause but never putting in a new high.

    I stand by my position that a new low will most likely be put in before we see a bottom.
    Apr 12, 2014. 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Gold Drop Below $1000? [View article]
    I wish I could see what you see. Until I see otherwise this current move down is corrective to the rally beginning on Dec. 31. I see that rally as a 5 wave move and the c wave of a 3-3-5 that began on June 28 2013. ??
    Apr 6, 2014. 08:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Should Rally, But Can Then Drop As Low As $14 [View article]
    Avi,

    It appears what you are describing is a w-x-y. My question was referring to an a-b-c such as figures 1-31 and 1-32 page 45 of Frost and Prechter; was there a technical reason why you are discounting the a-b-c pattern in gold?
    Mar 31, 2014. 07:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Should Rally, But Can Then Drop As Low As $14 [View article]
    Avi,

    Love the articles and glad you decided to keep writing.

    Is there a technical reason that you have discounted the possibility of gold being in an expanded flat where wave c would close above the Aug 22 high.

    Silver could possibly be in a flat as well with wave c being .618% of wave a.

    Would you care to hash that over a bit?

    Thanks
    Mar 30, 2014. 07:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Back By Popular Demand [View article]
    How about being in the 8th inning of the current retracement? I believe we have a lower low yet and then the bulls will be happy - for a time maybe.
    Mar 21, 2014. 01:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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