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bobbafett38@yahoo.com

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  • BHP iron ore chief says prices not likely to rise above $100/ton again [View news story]
    like I said above: "Whether it works or not, is wise, is another question altogether. But ranting against management here makes no sense until we see the results of this strategy... "
    Dec 16, 2014. 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BHP iron ore chief says prices not likely to rise above $100/ton again [View news story]
    The BHP CEO's comments were merely a prediction not a desire. BHP & RIO are trying to win more profit through market share-- selling more iron ore at cheaper prices can mean more profit for shareholders possibly than selling less iron ore at higher prices. This is a price war and they are trying to knock out the competition. Whether it works or not, is wise, is another question altogether. But ranting against management here makes no sense until we see the results of this strategy...
    Dec 15, 2014. 08:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Winthrop Realty Waves The White Flag - So Should Investors [View article]
    thanks for posting that... $21 may be ambitious, but hey would be great if it happens. I think the real kicker here is that Winthrop pays back large portions of the liquidation quickly, which increases the annualized return dramatically on the leftover portion--- even if the ultimate liquidation value is the conservative $18.35. The wild card still seems to be the Times Square hotel...
    Dec 3, 2014. 07:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Winthrop Realty Waves The White Flag - So Should Investors [View article]
    yeh FUR crushed it. The question is how much of the $18.35 is pricing in rental cash flows versus an increase in valuation for the 701 7th avenue property, but they are still apparently being conservative.
    Nov 7, 2014. 08:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Cliffs Natural Resources Short Thesis Under Question? [View article]
    thanks James very much, that does help. I thought that Mesabi would go on just fine, but needed second opinions and your points about the viability of Northshore prove it clearly. thanks
    Oct 20, 2014. 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Cliffs Natural Resources Short Thesis Under Question? [View article]
    How does the troubles at CLF affect the Mesabi Iron Ore trust by the way (MSB)?
    Oct 20, 2014. 09:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • From Frac Sands To Oil Sands: Athabasca Minerals Has It Covered [View article]
    Any rough estimates out there on financing needed? Just wondering how much dilution will be needed. With the share price getting closer to pre-Firebag story levels, you might be getting all that priced in effectively.... I don't have a position at present but getting an itchy trigger finger
    Oct 2, 2014. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Firebag River - A Red-Hot Canadian Frac Sand Deposit? [View article]
    What is a reasonable cost estimate do you think to get the frac deposit up and running? How much does all the labor and hydrosizers and what not cost? Would drillers signing long term contracts put enough of a down payment in to cover those costs? Seems like that might be tough, and easier for the company to just run a quick secondary while the stock is "hot".

    We are starting to get into "God is in the details" phase of logistics, cost management, client demand, etc etc.
    Aug 31, 2014. 06:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Patterson Lake Asset Consolidation: Fission Aims For Fusion With Alpha [View article]
    This isn't what you are asking in regards to Cameco Phaedo2000, but your question about the strike makes me wonder if Cameco might have a hard time justifying a purchase of a resource like FCU in current conditions. With strikes on its own mines and cutbacks in production, and no visible date for the majority of Japanese reactors to restart, can Cameco justify to its shareholders adding even more pounds in the ground they don't need? Especially if such a purchase required dilutive stock as currency? And before the ongoing tax lawsuit with the government is resolved?

    I am long FCU, and personally think Cameco should buy it on hopes of a very long term uranium recovery. Those pounds in the ground will be more valuable ten years from now than today. But I wonder if there is an auction how serious they would be about purchasing FCU? I hope I'm wrong of course and would love to hear differing opinions and insights.

    Lastly, its definitely of interest what kind of reaction Dev's worldwide trip pitching FCU to global investors and the Chinese got a couple months ago. I am assuming any interested buyers would wait for the NI 43-101. But I'm curious if they all had a "wait and see" attitude in regards to the resource estimate and Japanese restarts, or something worse or something better...
    Aug 29, 2014. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Winthrop Realty Waves The White Flag - So Should Investors [View article]
    Sell your preferred's and buy the underlying stock and get your money back that way :)
    Aug 18, 2014. 08:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Winthrop Realty Waves The White Flag - So Should Investors [View article]
    Its not the right- its the obligation! They are not allowed to pay dividends to common shareholders UNTIL they pay off the preferred-- the seniority status of the preferred's guarantees preferred shareholders the right to the first fruits of liquidation.
    Aug 12, 2014. 09:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Winthrop Realty Waves The White Flag - So Should Investors [View article]
    They are going to pay off the preferred's fast as they can. Management said on the recent conference call: "Under the terms... we are required to give 30 to 60 day notice but it is, as Michael mentioned, our intention to pay that as soon as possible."
    Aug 12, 2014. 08:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Winthrop Realty Waves The White Flag - So Should Investors [View article]
    Does anyone have any info or thoughts on the value of 701 7th Avenue? They listed it in the proxy with an NAV of simply the cash they put in...
    Aug 7, 2014. 07:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Winthrop Realty Waves The White Flag - So Should Investors [View article]
    Either way seems like its worth the risk-- you might end up with a low yielding bond like return in FUR, or a nice chop if the liquidation proceeds turn up higher. At least the downside seems somewhat limited, barring a real estate pricing collapse etc.
    Aug 6, 2014. 07:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Winthrop Realty Waves The White Flag - So Should Investors [View article]
    it might help to listen to the last FUR conference call online.

    FUR Chairman/CEO Michael Ashner has conducted several voluntary REIT liquidations before-- this is not new. Also, he mentioned that they couldn't find anything they wanted to buy, and, to paraphrase, felt the market was toppy. This stock is basically a play on cashing out of the real estate market at a high level, if not the top. They are not waving a white flag.

    One of the main drivers of the stock in the future is what value Winthrop can sell 701 7th Avenue for in Times Square, NYC. This mega building, how much is it worth? $1 billion? $1.2 billion? There is a bit of an embedded call option in the price of FUR based on this one property.

    This liquidation can take two years, so there are dividends payable in the meantime.
    Aug 5, 2014. 08:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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