Q1 Drilling Shows Patterson Lake Makes The Grade: Literally [View article]
I think most PM's that want to own Alpha Minerals & Fission Uranium already do-- and the people reading these boards are probably maxed out in their personal accounts as well. One could argue the stock is pricing in 15-20 million pounds of uranium in the ground already (though the shallow depth should garner a better valuation).
It will probably take significant summer data and analysts cheerleading a potential takeover to drive new interest. That being said, I'd rather be long going into the summer drilling program too.
Q1 Drilling Shows Patterson Lake Makes The Grade: Literally [View article]
I do agree with the thesis on the Patterson Lake stocks too-- I guess I was just speculating on why Fission and Alpha's valuations are not as high as Hathor at the same stage, given the compelling arguments and data you presented.
I am long a decent chunk of both Fission and Alpha now. The play off the deal closing in Fission was really tremendous, wish we'd loaded up. At least we had something.
Q1 Drilling Shows Patterson Lake Makes The Grade: Literally [View article]
I wonder if some of the share underperformance in Fission/Alpha can be attributed to:
1) uranium investors burned in 2007 bubble and Fukushima crash have stayed away 2) low uranium prices on the market, much closer to actual production cost than before, may mean a lower takeout premium per pound for explorers 3) portfolio managers in general apathetic to anything nuclear after Fukushima
A Sweeter Deal On The Horizon For Prolor Biotech? [View article]
Hi, first great article, thank you.
As of 5/3/13, the Prolor stock is arguably trading like: 1) justifiably angry shareholders might shoot the deal down, and 2) that nobody else will come in and buy it (how can they get past Frost's 20% shareholding, he won't sell to anyone but OPK) and the deal goes through. Since OPK has such risk, a large risk arbitrage discount seems appropriate for Prolor.
I think the odds frankly are high the deal goes through at current levels. Frost is a legend in Israel (he's also chairman of Teva) and has a lot of shareholder and political backing. While I like PBTH's business too, i have to see if I want to be in with OPK as well.
As for the flurry of lawsuits, almost every deal announced is accompanied by class action lawsuits. The lawyers just make a knee jerk reaction and then decide to drop or pursue the case later. I would not read too much into it.
Patterson Lake: Is The Past The Key To The Present? [View article]
i would love for that to happen, but... structurally its difficult for a company like Rio to bid for Fission when the deal with Denison is not yet complete. If, and that's a big if, they were going to buy the Fission patterson lake JV newco, they would wait until well after the dust settles and the books are settled and clear on the Denison takeover.
Patterson Lake: Is The Past The Key To The Present? [View article]
That depends on where you value FSSIF at correct? If you take DNN at $1.20 USD close, x .355 ratio = 42 cents of value for Denison stake. Whatever is leftover, currently about 40 cents, is the value for Patterson Lake (FSSIF closed at .8157). The PL jv was worth 65 cents recently, but now the market is only giving you 42 cents for it. Probably worth it frankly to buy and hedge out the DNN
Patterson Lake: Is The Past The Key To The Present? [View article]
thank you Malcom again for the excellent article.
I have a follow up question regarding the "boulder source." I am a geological novice for sure, but I guess there's an implication this Patterson Lake uranium strip rolled off of something larger? And that's what a lot of juniors recently buying up land to the NE and SW of Patterson Lake are betting on? That doesn't imply, geologically speaking, that Patterson Lake might end up with just a few pebbles of what's larger to the NE or SW? Just a few pebbles doesn't seem the case based on this data but i'm asking more to understand the bigger geological picture. Thanks.
On the stock front, there may have been some warrant related selling in Fission Energy as well, but not as substantial as the placements and raises from Alpha Minerals you mentioned. Regardless, a lot of investors are probably happy to have made a great return so far and take chips off the table-- before more potentially risky assay results and the delay till the summer drilling program. I cannot blame them, especially those who caught the move in Alpha Minerals from the fall till now. However, I agree that there is probably way, way more value here in the long term.
Originally I stumbled on Fission as a trading play on the unique risk arbitrage situation, and after a mistaken sale at 90 cents, I'm back in as a long term holder around 1 CAD. The data, even to this novice, makes for a compelling risk/reward play. I guess in poker terms, these assay results have given investors a great "flop", and at least to me, its worth betting more as the probabilities increase.
Patterson Lake Speaks Again: What The Geology Is Saying [View article]
The entire uranium sector (along with most other commodities) are getting smashed today April 3rd. Crude oil down 2.85% doesn't help anything energy related either.
Patterson Lake Speaks Again: What The Geology Is Saying [View article]
fyi folks i posted a question to Fission Energy on the Agoracom conference online about what their cap ex needs would be and if they expected to do an equity raise anytime soon. Here was the response: Re: Presentation - AGORACOM Online Uranium Conference
in response to Re: Presentation - AGORACOM Online Uranium Conference by bobbafett38
posted on Mar 21, 13 12:42PM Use the IP Check tool [?]
Given the shallow mineralization at PLS our drilling programs have been relatively inexpensive. Our current 8000m winter program with Alpha Minerals was a $4M program of which we are the operator and a 50% partner. Our summer program has not been announced as of yet however, given our drilling costs we are not anticipating a capital raise anytime soon.
How Much More Downside Is There In Cliffs Natural Resources? [View article]
Takeover rumors in a declining stock are usually a bad sign (desparate longs spreading any rumor to get out higher)- the CLF will probably remain weak. I do think its approaching buy levels, down 80% from the peak after horrible news has been absorbed by the market. The 2009 low was $12-13. I bought a tiny starter position so i could average down without panicking. The leverage for the stock going forward could be Chinese seaborne iron ore prices and any good news coming out of Bloom Lake (or bad). That's probably what the stock will trade off for a long time going forward.
Q1 Drilling Shows Patterson Lake Makes The Grade: Literally [View article]
It will probably take significant summer data and analysts cheerleading a potential takeover to drive new interest. That being said, I'd rather be long going into the summer drilling program too.
Q1 Drilling Shows Patterson Lake Makes The Grade: Literally [View article]
I am long a decent chunk of both Fission and Alpha now. The play off the deal closing in Fission was really tremendous, wish we'd loaded up. At least we had something.
Q1 Drilling Shows Patterson Lake Makes The Grade: Literally [View article]
1) uranium investors burned in 2007 bubble and Fukushima crash have stayed away
2) low uranium prices on the market, much closer to actual production cost than before, may mean a lower takeout premium per pound for explorers
3) portfolio managers in general apathetic to anything nuclear after Fukushima
Q1 Drilling Shows Patterson Lake Makes The Grade: Literally [View article]
A Sweeter Deal On The Horizon For Prolor Biotech? [View article]
A Sweeter Deal On The Horizon For Prolor Biotech? [View article]
As of 5/3/13, the Prolor stock is arguably trading like:
1) justifiably angry shareholders might shoot the deal down, and
2) that nobody else will come in and buy it (how can they get past Frost's 20% shareholding, he won't sell to anyone but OPK) and the deal goes through. Since OPK has such risk, a large risk arbitrage discount seems appropriate for Prolor.
I think the odds frankly are high the deal goes through at current levels. Frost is a legend in Israel (he's also chairman of Teva) and has a lot of shareholder and political backing. While I like PBTH's business too, i have to see if I want to be in with OPK as well.
As for the flurry of lawsuits, almost every deal announced is accompanied by class action lawsuits. The lawyers just make a knee jerk reaction and then decide to drop or pursue the case later. I would not read too much into it.
Patterson Lake: Is The Past The Key To The Present? [View article]
Patterson Lake: Is The Past The Key To The Present? [View article]
Patterson Lake: Is The Past The Key To The Present? [View article]
Patterson Lake: Is The Past The Key To The Present? [View article]
I have a follow up question regarding the "boulder source." I am a geological novice for sure, but I guess there's an implication this Patterson Lake uranium strip rolled off of something larger? And that's what a lot of juniors recently buying up land to the NE and SW of Patterson Lake are betting on? That doesn't imply, geologically speaking, that Patterson Lake might end up with just a few pebbles of what's larger to the NE or SW? Just a few pebbles doesn't seem the case based on this data but i'm asking more to understand the bigger geological picture. Thanks.
On the stock front, there may have been some warrant related selling in Fission Energy as well, but not as substantial as the placements and raises from Alpha Minerals you mentioned. Regardless, a lot of investors are probably happy to have made a great return so far and take chips off the table-- before more potentially risky assay results and the delay till the summer drilling program. I cannot blame them, especially those who caught the move in Alpha Minerals from the fall till now. However, I agree that there is probably way, way more value here in the long term.
Originally I stumbled on Fission as a trading play on the unique risk arbitrage situation, and after a mistaken sale at 90 cents, I'm back in as a long term holder around 1 CAD. The data, even to this novice, makes for a compelling risk/reward play. I guess in poker terms, these assay results have given investors a great "flop", and at least to me, its worth betting more as the probabilities increase.
Will Cameco Bid For Urenco? [View article]
Patterson Lake Speaks Again: What The Geology Is Saying [View article]
Patterson Lake Speaks Again: What The Geology Is Saying [View article]
Re: Presentation - AGORACOM Online Uranium Conference
in response to Re: Presentation - AGORACOM Online Uranium Conference by bobbafett38
posted on Mar 21, 13 12:42PM Use the IP Check tool [?]
Given the shallow mineralization at PLS our drilling programs have been relatively inexpensive. Our current 8000m winter program with Alpha Minerals was a $4M program of which we are the operator and a 50% partner. Our summer program has not been announced as of yet however, given our drilling costs we are not anticipating a capital raise anytime soon.
Patterson Lake Speaks Again: What The Geology Is Saying [View article]
How Much More Downside Is There In Cliffs Natural Resources? [View article]
The leverage for the stock going forward could be Chinese seaborne iron ore prices and any good news coming out of Bloom Lake (or bad). That's probably what the stock will trade off for a long time going forward.