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bobbafett38@yahoo.com

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  • Fission Uranium: 3 Upside Scenarios In A Market Poised For Recovery [View article]
    shareholders will probably approve by October if no other bid comes out. its much more difficult than one would imagine to vote down a deal
    Jul 16, 2015. 07:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fission Uranium And Denison Mines Will Merge: Good Or Bad? [View article]
    I posted this on another Seeking Alpha article on the merger's board (http://seekingalpha.co...) , hoping for some people's thoughts on the questions:

    Most commenters, here and on chat rooms like stockhouse.com's bullboard, are emphatic that FCU is the greatest discovery ever. While I'm long stock and think its pretty good, it may not be so perfect. I have questions and concerns-- concerns that make me more understanding of the decision to merge. Again, i am long stock but there are issues:

    1) Are you sure the PEA is going to be great? What if the lake development issues render the discovery quite costly and not as competitive as everyone thinks? Does anyone know how much it really will cost to dam and open pit the Triple R? What if its not economical at $35/pound uranium? Did FCU merge with DNN because the PEA wasn't coming along as well as hoped?

    2) If Cameco, or Areva, or whoever wanted to buy FCU- why haven't bought it by now? Investors are convinced somebody will buy Fission Uranium- but what if they aren't interested? After Hathor, maybe the utilities and producers want to wait for a sure-fire uranium bull market to begin again? Are utilities risk averse- and would rather buy deposits mid to late cycle than bet on a comeback? Analysts have wrongly predicted a rise in uranium prices and restarts of Japanese reactors for 3 years now. The "inevitable" rally keeps getting pushed back- so far the utilities/majors have been right to wait. Perhaps Dev has already tried everyone and nobody but DNN wanted to merge. Yes he would sell at 2.10 or 3.00 CAD of course, but nobody seems to be making that offer do they?

    3) Cameco hasn't sorted out its CRA tax issue yet. That could wipe out a lot of the cash they raised (cash some believe is meant to buy FCU)-- so perhaps Cameco can't do a major acquisition until that tax issue is resolved? We don't know.

    I don't know the answers to these questions, and would love to hear feedback and facts from folks, but not "biased long" points of view/promotion. I am long, and I think uranium will come back, but it could take years, and perhaps the new DNN/FCU entity is bought at the top in 2020, and not the bottom in 2015... and Lukas Lundin is not a bad guy to be invested with...
    Jul 14, 2015. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fission Uranium: 3 Upside Scenarios In A Market Poised For Recovery [View article]
    Most commenters, here and on chat rooms like stockhouse.com's bullboard, are emphatic that FCU is the greatest discovery ever. While I'm long stock and think its pretty good, it may not be so perfect. I have questions and concerns-- concerns that make me more understanding of the decision to merge. Again, i am long stock but there are issues:

    1) Are you sure the PEA is going to be great? What if the lake development issues render the discovery quite costly and not as competitive as everyone thinks? Does anyone know how much it really will cost to dam and open pit the Triple R? What if its not economical at $35/pound uranium? Did FCU merge with DNN because the PEA wasn't coming along as well as hoped?

    2) If Cameco, or Areva, or whoever wanted to buy FCU- why haven't bought it by now? Investors are convinced somebody will buy Fission Uranium- but what if they aren't interested? After Hathor, maybe the utilities and producers want to wait for a sure-fire uranium bull market to begin again? Are utilities risk averse- and would rather buy deposits mid to late cycle than bet on a comeback? Analysts have wrongly predicted a rise in uranium prices and restarts of Japanese reactors for 3 years now. The "inevitable" rally keeps getting pushed back- so far the utilities/majors have been right to wait. Perhaps Dev has already tried everyone and nobody but DNN wanted to merge. Yes he would sell at 2.10 or 3.00 CAD of course, but nobody seems to be making that offer do they?

    3) Cameco hasn't sorted out its CRA tax issue yet. That could wipe out a lot of the cash they raised (cash some believe is meant to buy FCU)-- so perhaps Cameco can't do a major acquisition until that tax issue is resolved? We don't know.

    I don't know the answers to these questions, and would love to hear feedback and facts from folks, but not "biased long" points of view/promotion. I am long, and I think uranium will come back, but it could take years, and perhaps the new DNN/FCU entity is bought at the top in 2020, and not the bottom in 2015... and Lukas Lundin is not a bad guy to be invested with...
    Jul 12, 2015. 03:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If There Is Such A Thing As A Free Lunch In The Markets, Stans Energy's Favorable Settlement Comes Close [View article]
    yep, unfortunately seems like a dud.
    Jun 9, 2015. 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If There Is Such A Thing As A Free Lunch In The Markets, Stans Energy's Favorable Settlement Comes Close [View article]
    I mean Stans management seems open to settling by receiving the license and then mining as per the original plan, as opposed to receiving funds or centerra shares.
    Jun 4, 2015. 03:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The AuRico Gold Spin-Off [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1Po1tfA

    this is the press release with exact details as well
    May 15, 2015. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The AuRico Gold Spin-Off [View article]
    thanks SomaBull for this article. Its particularly compelling when the CEO steps away to run the spinoff... how much of the valuation do you think is attributed to the "call option" on Kemess East? thanks
    May 13, 2015. 08:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If There Is Such A Thing As A Free Lunch In The Markets, Stans Energy's Favorable Settlement Comes Close [View article]
    Any thoughts on recent developments here? Seems like the consensus is the seizure of 47 million shares of Centerra isn't really going to save the day for Stans-- because the Centerra assets are in Kyrgz Republic as well and could be expropriated. Also, it seems Stans management is willing to take the license and mine and that the government could settle the case that way (they would probably write a check over their dead body).
    May 11, 2015. 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Patch Of Green In The Commodity Sea Of Red: What's Driving The Outperformance In Uranium? [View article]
    Though, just to play devil's advocate, will acquirers focus more on the 44 million pounds of high grade indicated, and sort of ignore the headline 79 million number?
    Jan 12, 2015. 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Patch Of Green In The Commodity Sea Of Red: What's Driving The Outperformance In Uranium? [View article]
    105 million pounds... and also, what's a reasonable valuation marketwise and then takeout wise? Rob Chang put out a note Friday night with 1.65 CAD target for market trading and 2.50 takeout. I do have a bad feeling though that Hathor's $11/pound takeover price won't be matched given the current conditions in the energy & uranium markets. But even $7-8/pound isn't too shabby.

    And the possibility of carving out the Triple R deposit and spinning off the rest yet again?
    Jan 11, 2015. 12:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BHP iron ore chief says prices not likely to rise above $100/ton again [View news story]
    like I said above: "Whether it works or not, is wise, is another question altogether. But ranting against management here makes no sense until we see the results of this strategy... "
    Dec 16, 2014. 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BHP iron ore chief says prices not likely to rise above $100/ton again [View news story]
    The BHP CEO's comments were merely a prediction not a desire. BHP & RIO are trying to win more profit through market share-- selling more iron ore at cheaper prices can mean more profit for shareholders possibly than selling less iron ore at higher prices. This is a price war and they are trying to knock out the competition. Whether it works or not, is wise, is another question altogether. But ranting against management here makes no sense until we see the results of this strategy...
    Dec 15, 2014. 08:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Winthrop Realty Waves The White Flag - So Should Investors [View article]
    thanks for posting that... $21 may be ambitious, but hey would be great if it happens. I think the real kicker here is that Winthrop pays back large portions of the liquidation quickly, which increases the annualized return dramatically on the leftover portion--- even if the ultimate liquidation value is the conservative $18.35. The wild card still seems to be the Times Square hotel...
    Dec 3, 2014. 07:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Winthrop Realty Waves The White Flag - So Should Investors [View article]
    yeh FUR crushed it. The question is how much of the $18.35 is pricing in rental cash flows versus an increase in valuation for the 701 7th avenue property, but they are still apparently being conservative.
    Nov 7, 2014. 08:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Cliffs Natural Resources Short Thesis Under Question? [View article]
    thanks James very much, that does help. I thought that Mesabi would go on just fine, but needed second opinions and your points about the viability of Northshore prove it clearly. thanks
    Oct 20, 2014. 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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