bobbafett38@yahoo.com

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  • Investing With An Edge: Winthrop Realty  [View article]
    thanks for the update from the company on the listed versus unlisted issue. So then if FUR is delisted in August, the stock will probably trade at a discount, and the more assets left in the shell vehicle, the more of a discount. Institutions in general don't like delisted equities on their books. So that could be an opportunity for investors willing to wait it out...
    Feb 8, 2016. 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing With An Edge: Winthrop Realty  [View article]
    thanks for the color on the unfortunate news behind the cancellation of the Stamford sale.
    Feb 6, 2016. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing With An Edge: Winthrop Realty  [View article]
    They will probably keep a listed vehicle open after August 2016, but we'll find out hopefully on the next conference call for sure.
    Feb 6, 2016. 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing With An Edge: Winthrop Realty  [View article]
    yes i agree with RJM2. The proceeds may come off some. Hopefully not a lot, and there is still possible upside with 701 7th Avenue. That's the real driver of any move up arguably.

    Also this lawsuit against CW Capital seems like a long shot. Bill Ackman and FUR lost the case a few years ago and I don't see why they would win now just because CW Capital made a ton of money. The spirit and letter of the law seemed to favor the senior lenders (as opposed to Ackman and FUR in the mezzanine level).
    Jan 31, 2016. 08:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing With An Edge: Winthrop Realty  [View article]
    The $14.17 nav estimate may be stale, the market has come off some and credit conditions are worsening. Hopefully they can step up the pace of liquidation
    Jan 29, 2016. 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing With An Edge: Winthrop Realty  [View article]
    I've been buying more at $13.10, one of my largest positions. Downside is probably flat if things go bad in the real estate market in the next 8 months of liquidation. Keep in mind that Ashner can tuck away some properties in a post liquidation vehicle for shareholders if he wants, though I don't think he does.
    Dec 31, 2015. 07:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing With An Edge: Winthrop Realty  [View article]
    its definitely a return of capital. you only get taxed on your profits. so if you buy at $13 and the total liquidation is $15, you only get taxed on the $2 profit.
    Dec 24, 2015. 08:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mesabi Trust Is Undervalued And With Iron Ore Price Upside And No Capex  [View article]
    thanks Uncle Walter for the detailed color on MSB. I agree, i'll look at it around $2. It languished between $1-4 for several years in the late 80's during the last operator's bankruptcy and will likely languish a few years again. With iron at $40, and CLF's costs at $49 or more, the math is clear.

    So we wait for the bankruptcy panic price, and then buying MSB is the essentially same as buying a call option on $49 iron ore with a 50 year expiration (and thus a great deal).

    I have traded in and out of this several times over the last decade, the last time being the most heroic cut of my life at $18 (bought at $21). Overall its been a great stock but the odds of CLF bankruptcy are staggeringly high and MSB will take a huge dive if that happens.
    Dec 24, 2015. 07:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing With An Edge: Winthrop Realty  [View article]
    RJM2, they can put some assets in a liquidating trust- but remember they don't want to. That's why they are liquidating in the first place. Its possible they hold the Times Square property longer but not intended.

    Limited downside, i've owned a chunk since the announcement a year ago. Faster payback of capital really increases the IRR dramatically.
    Nov 13, 2015. 12:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fission Uranium: 3 Upside Scenarios In A Market Poised For Recovery  [View article]
    I'm less enthused with a FCU/DML merger, voting against... if its such a good deposit its worth holding and raising enough money to drill and wait and keep the licenses etc
    Aug 7, 2015. 02:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fission Uranium And Denison Mines Will Merge: Good Or Bad?  [View article]
    I'm voting against. The value destruction here is significant and generally speaking Dev has done a good job, raising money at the top in the stock, spinning out Fission 3.0, etc. But this time I think its better to stay alone
    Aug 7, 2015. 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shareholders Of Fission Uranium Should Vote Against Merger With Denison Mines  [View article]
    I didn't feel too strongly about the FCU-DML merger, but now I agree with the author that it should be voted against, and I will vote against it. The selloff in Fission is not just the drop in commodities overall these last few weeks of July/August, but disappointment with giving half the company to DML for not much in return. As long as going concern money can be raised and the PEA doesn't leave Triple R as a stranded, expensive asset, why merge? The market has voted with its feet clearly, shareholders should do so with their proxy cards.

    On another note, the rampant bullishness on the uranium/nuclear industry never seems to take into account construction delays, cancellations, and aging nuclear reactor shutdowns. The analysts at the Canadian investment banks routinely pump the China/India nuclear buildout, without taking into account the NET reactor additions each year, which are much lower the number of reactors under construction. (the report below implies about 20% at least) This would explain why utilities are not rushing into the market to buy uranium and why Cameco and financially distressed Areva are not rushing to buy FCU. They don't have to... yet (hopefully).

    See this PDF paper on the reality of the nuclear industry:
    http://bit.ly/1gjkBeJ
    Aug 7, 2015. 02:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crash Course: How A Mine Is Made  [View article]
    thanks, very well written and extremely helpful. also going in my printed "keep" file on investment wisdom.
    Aug 3, 2015. 12:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fission Uranium: 3 Upside Scenarios In A Market Poised For Recovery  [View article]
    shareholders will probably approve by October if no other bid comes out. its much more difficult than one would imagine to vote down a deal
    Jul 16, 2015. 07:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fission Uranium And Denison Mines Will Merge: Good Or Bad?  [View article]
    I posted this on another Seeking Alpha article on the merger's board (http://seekingalpha.co...) , hoping for some people's thoughts on the questions:

    Most commenters, here and on chat rooms like stockhouse.com's bullboard, are emphatic that FCU is the greatest discovery ever. While I'm long stock and think its pretty good, it may not be so perfect. I have questions and concerns-- concerns that make me more understanding of the decision to merge. Again, i am long stock but there are issues:

    1) Are you sure the PEA is going to be great? What if the lake development issues render the discovery quite costly and not as competitive as everyone thinks? Does anyone know how much it really will cost to dam and open pit the Triple R? What if its not economical at $35/pound uranium? Did FCU merge with DNN because the PEA wasn't coming along as well as hoped?

    2) If Cameco, or Areva, or whoever wanted to buy FCU- why haven't bought it by now? Investors are convinced somebody will buy Fission Uranium- but what if they aren't interested? After Hathor, maybe the utilities and producers want to wait for a sure-fire uranium bull market to begin again? Are utilities risk averse- and would rather buy deposits mid to late cycle than bet on a comeback? Analysts have wrongly predicted a rise in uranium prices and restarts of Japanese reactors for 3 years now. The "inevitable" rally keeps getting pushed back- so far the utilities/majors have been right to wait. Perhaps Dev has already tried everyone and nobody but DNN wanted to merge. Yes he would sell at 2.10 or 3.00 CAD of course, but nobody seems to be making that offer do they?

    3) Cameco hasn't sorted out its CRA tax issue yet. That could wipe out a lot of the cash they raised (cash some believe is meant to buy FCU)-- so perhaps Cameco can't do a major acquisition until that tax issue is resolved? We don't know.

    I don't know the answers to these questions, and would love to hear feedback and facts from folks, but not "biased long" points of view/promotion. I am long, and I think uranium will come back, but it could take years, and perhaps the new DNN/FCU entity is bought at the top in 2020, and not the bottom in 2015... and Lukas Lundin is not a bad guy to be invested with...
    Jul 14, 2015. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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