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waynor

waynor
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  • Cisco - All Value And No Growth [View article]
    <Editor's Note: This article covers a stock trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.>

    Dear Editor,

    Cisco is a large company.
    Apr 4 06:07 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Cutting Dividends Adds Shareholder Value [View article]
    Good examples of the effect of dividends on shareholder value. I certainly agree that the dividend is but one of several elements of a companies ability to deliver shareholder value, and not the most important.

    The size of the distribution is clearly a capital allocation decision for the BOD. If the free cash flow can support the goals of the company in other areas, capital maintenance, capital investment, share repurchase, or debt reduction, then the shareholders should be well served if free cash was spent in other ways.

    If Boardwalk (BWP) has over-distributed in the past, then the decision to reduce is the clearly in order. Whether the company will succeed in the future, which is more important, is most certainly in the hands of the Tisch boys at Lowes (L), the general partner, the majority shareholder, and has recently made a $300M credit line available to BWP. If you are not sure where the over-distributions of the past years have gone, just look at the current account of L; a good portion is there. As GP, they have agreed to loan some of that excess cash back to BWP.

    I have watched L for a few years to determine if they are indeed the younger "Buffets" or even the younger "Tischs" who can deliver above average shareholder value over time. Warren and Laurence certainly have. I'm not sure about the boys at this point. For that reason, I'm looking in from the outside on BWP.

    Mar 20 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Cisco Can Boost Its Share Price By 41% According To Carl Icahn [View article]
    CSCO is up 14.5% this year to date and pays a 3% dividend. It is very likely long term shareholders will see a 41% total return on this company over then next few years if Chambers can maintain current OCF growth rate and dividend. I'm not a big fan of share buybacks if the cash can be allocated to higher and better long term uses: R&D, Engineering, Acquisitions, etc. The dividend seem reasonable for a company that must spend 13.5% of revenues on R&D in order to survive and prosper in a highly competitive, high-tech, industry. I'm a big fan of the old hillbilly, who has treated us very well for the last several years, initiating a growing dividend in 2011.
    Oct 28 09:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter & Gamble's Unsustainable Dividend Growth: Something Has To Give [View article]
    I think the BOD at PG and Josh are pretty much in agreement. Isn't that the primary reason for bringing Lafley back -- to maintain growth in this very large company. It is not sustainable to grow the payout faster than FCF; yet, with PG the market has come to expect the dividend and growth in the dividend. For Mr. market to remain happy, Mr. Lafley, if he is successful, will have to get the company to perform to that expectation. The average dividend yield is higher than it has been in the last 20 years: 1995 - 2000, 1.5%; 2000 - 2008, 2%; 2008 - 2013, 3%. If the market was happy at a 2% dividend yield for most of the past 20 years, perhaps an argument could be made to slow the growth in the dividend to allow FCF to catch up.
    Oct 28 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Timberland Investing: What You Need To Know Now [View article]
    Tom,

    Thank you for this valuable contribution on the timber industry big picture. As you follow the macro economic climate for timberlands, if you haven't already found him on SA, may I suggest you also watch the posting of Tom Kametz, a retired timber company executive, who posts his informative opinions on the timber REITs.

    A more specific question: Can the dead timber, lost from the Canadian Pine Beetle, be selectively harvested and sawed into lumber? If so, can you comment on the viability of the harvest?

    Thanks again for this informative posting.
    Aug 3 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comments On Rayonier's 2012 Results [View article]
    Tom,
    Again, I enjoyed your informative review of Rayonier's latest earnings report. I particularly liked your clear explanation of the depletion account. Keep up the good work.
    Feb 22 03:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Timberlands: Who Owns Them And Where Are They? [View article]
    Well done! Very useful, informative, and relevant. Keep up the good work. Waynor
    Dec 23 04:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HP's Best Recovery Plan: Ignore The Analysts [View article]
    Very much agree with Adam and CT. Integrating acquisitions and spinning off businesses takes too much time and effort by senior management and disruption to department management and employees, particularly at this time when the company is reeling from write downs in recently acquired companies and attempting to right the ship, steady the course, and regain credit ratings.

    HPQ needs to stabilize from these distractions as CEO Meg Whitman has indicated they will. HPQ is well aware of the contraction in PC and Printer markets, but they believe they can continue to cut both the number and volume of products and the associated variable costs in order to mitigate margins according to an analyst brief this fall.

    Further, it is hard to believe that another company will pay a reasonable price at this time to acquire the PC and Printer business during this long period of rebuilding.

    Fully agree with CT that an established slow/no growing cash cow can provide needed cash for R&D and growing faster growing business.

    Good write-up!

    Waynor
    Dec 11 02:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon's Risk Profile Has Changed - What You Need To Know [View article]
    Well thought out article. Ray adds to his credibility, even as EXC's management loses a little. When the facts change, Ray changes his analysis. Good move! It is amazing how we tend to stick with our original thesis, even as the company and market moves against us. I include myself in this all to human trait.
    Nov 6 02:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Timber REIT Analysis Of Rayonier [View article]
    Tom, You would be a welcome guest at the Motley Fool REIT board for discussion on these notes and other income investments. Thanks for the detailed posts on the timber industry. Very informative.
    Jun 10 03:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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