Seeking Alpha

Anonymous Vol trader

Anonymous Vol trader
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Anonymous Vol trader's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Rates And Reality [View article]
    Thanks, very interesting read, not mainstream for sure.
    Demographics will influence next few years for sure...
    I personally think we are heading to durably lower P/Es to entice buyers as older generations need to sell their risk to younger, poorer generations... However when this materializes I don't know... Complacency tends to slow these shifts, and corporate buybacks offset some of the selling, so probably we would need a recession for this to kick in...
    Then again don't listen to me, I didn't see the 2013 P/E expansion coming...
    Aug 19 05:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairway Group: A Misunderstood Retailer Priced For Outsized Returns Over The Next Decade [View article]
    While considering an investment at IPO price, growth was an important variable, but now the price is 70% lower... it is all about the cash flow.
    Aug 19 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairway Group: A Misunderstood Retailer Priced For Outsized Returns Over The Next Decade [View article]
    If 9m a quarter is the upside you see, maybe you should get out... 36m a year vs an EV of 410m isn't what you'd call huge upside...
    Aug 19 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairway Group: A Misunderstood Retailer Priced For Outsized Returns Over The Next Decade [View article]
    Thanks foodguru, I was wondering about that...
    Opening a business in Manhattan is usually more about Real Estate (leases) than anything else...
    That said FWM could still be a good buy which is what I am trying to figure out...
    The fact that their growth has slowed is a positive to me because it means they will be more selective/price sensitive with their locations, and that they might focus on rationalizing current stores/cash flow to avoid dilution at current stock price...
    Any source of info on those leases?
    If the leases are the problem are the suburban store working better?
    Aug 19 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumers Are Not Buying, Where Is Their Money Hiding? [View article]
    Consumer money->Equity markets
    Aug 18 04:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairway Group: A Misunderstood Retailer Priced For Outsized Returns Over The Next Decade [View article]
    FWM is growing sales at 18% vs 13% for Whole foods (sqrt(FY13/FY11)).
    Yes the companies aren't at the same stage of development, but the difference isn't that huge... WFM still has worldwide potential... whereas FWM is still local, and at this stage no reason the think they will be growing globally.
    Aug 18 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairway Group: A Misunderstood Retailer Priced For Outsized Returns Over The Next Decade [View article]
    Tempting stock, half the price of Whole foods on an EV/sales metric...
    Still, the discount makes sense because Whole foods is actually making money...
    So overall not as blatantly cheap as the graph seems to scream.
    I need more convincing...
    Aug 18 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: You Hate It At $5, But You Love It At $10? [View article]
    First step to a turnaround is cash flow, then profit...
    And cash flow was good.
    Aug 18 09:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: You Hate It At $5, But You Love It At $10? [View article]
    only with hindsight though...
    Aug 18 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Africa Opportunity Fund: Unappreciated, Underestimated And Undervalued. [View article]
    Very much agreed on that point...
    Aug 15 03:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: You Hate It At $5, But You Love It At $10? [View article]
    There are 2 kinds of contrarian investing:
    1/Systematically buying anything that drops a lot
    2/Trying to find hated stocks with a good risk reward and a business model that isn't broken.
    Obviously the second choice sounds better.
    When I bought some JCP close to the bottom, I really felt like it was more of a 1st category buy than a second, and anyone pitching the idea hardly sounded convincing... So right now it sounds unfair to backtrade and say it was a screaming buy.
    And yes I probably feel better about it now at 10 than then because cash flow situation looks better...
    Aug 15 02:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A Secular Move In Natural Gas Producers [View article]
    I prefer your idea on Russia.
    My problem with Nat gas, and that your article doesn't really elucidate is why would Nat Gas go back to levels of the past...
    Sure a cold winter might hurt stockpiles for a while, but that is still only temporary...
    I prefer uranium as my contrarian energy play (although I was a bit early, but that is often the case).
    Aug 15 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • World Wrestling Entertainment: Why Investors Should Stay Away [View article]
    It is actually a smart move that I wouldn't call desperate.
    The only reason for the commitment is when recruiting pre-wrestlemania, because that event in itself is enough of an argument to suscribe to network.
    I am believe they will remove this offer once we approach the main event once again...
    Disclosure: I wasn't involved in the stock until your article, then I went long at 11.05
    Aug 14 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New ETF That Is Like The VIX For High Yield Bonds [View article]
    Look, it is fine if you don't trust our comments, why would you, you don't know us, but you should really ask someone whose competence you trust better than yours to explain what we are trying to say...
    You still haven't understood our point, but let's leave it at that.
    Aug 13 10:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Absurdity Of Believing That Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement [View article]
    I am a poor writer, but good with numbers, but I will write an article on investing/taxation just to get a few ideas cleared up. To me Buffett style investing is more about leverage and taxation than it is about stock picking and timing (although I will not write off these components entirely), and I think an article about it could if not convince people, at least get them thinking about the long term impacts of taxation on returns...
    Aug 13 09:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
357 Comments
313 Likes