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Anonymous Vol trader

Anonymous Vol trader
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  • Warren Buffett's Bad Day [View article]
    50bil in 4 years is only 400$/second
    Dec 1, 2014. 05:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jump On GDX To Ride The Moon Shot In Gold [View article]
    You are never really stuck at multi year low, you are always in motion... just lower.
    Oct 31, 2014. 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jump On GDX To Ride The Moon Shot In Gold [View article]
    Well Gold didn't really pan out, but still bad call because the underperformance is extreme...
    -33% GDX vs -8.5% on GLD since article
    Oct 30, 2014. 04:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Disappointment, But Brighter Future For Alon USA Partners [View article]
    1.02$ I guess my estimate wasn't that bad, though I am actually surprised it came out this high because with spreads lower in September I was expecting worse...
    Oct 29, 2014. 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is American Realty Capital Properties A 'Sucker Yield' Bet? [View article]
    To me it isn't.
    The dust hasn't settled but clearly the current move seems warranted and full blown panic not priced in yet... If I were long I would still consider selling (price 9.10 now) because I don't see it bouncing until the fog clears... Accounting errors mean a lot of uncertainty, and uncertainty often leads to panic...
    Oct 29, 2014. 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Accounting issues at American Realty Capital; heads roll [View news story]
    It isn't a bargain yet, even at 9, with accounting anomalies in the picture...
    Oct 29, 2014. 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Canary In Big Blue's Mainframe: Why IBM's Q3 Bust Marks A Turning Point [View article]
    That is my point... leverage is really double edged and leveraging at the top of the cycle is a horrible choice if you end up deleveraging at the bottom... Only time will tell obviously.
    Oct 27, 2014. 01:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Canary In Big Blue's Mainframe: Why IBM's Q3 Bust Marks A Turning Point [View article]
    No I get it, just saying that if you spend all your free cash flow (and some extra) on shares now, if things ever sour and you are no longer generating free cash flow (even if only temporary) you are creating an extremely dangerous situation for your business. Why generate the extra stock volatility? Well maybe because when rewarding managers with stock options, the more the vol the better the reward... What better than an 80% drop in the stock (due to stopping the buyback at business cycle lows to do a capital raise) to strike some stock options?
    Oct 27, 2014. 12:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Canary In Big Blue's Mainframe: Why IBM's Q3 Bust Marks A Turning Point [View article]
    I actually think this reasoning is the surest way to chapter 11 down the road... reinvest all your cash and then some in your business until it no longer provides cash flows... I am not arguing this for Big blue, just a philosophical comment on buybacks...
    Oct 27, 2014. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Canary In Big Blue's Mainframe: Why IBM's Q3 Bust Marks A Turning Point [View article]
    Yes and no, if a particular business has great visibility of cash flow (pipelines/highways...) then great, but yes in a tech company, increasing debt to do buybacks is risky. It doesn't usually take a huge economic slowdown to see earnings drop, and when that happens, leverage bites back at you. I would stay away at least for now... Once you start getting a drop, management is out of the money on its stock options and incentive for higher stocks will become less clear with the possibility of restriking new options lower...
    Oct 24, 2014. 06:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Money By Remaining Calm While Others Panic [View article]
    I am glad the market bounced... Not because I bought shares in the downturn but because market is pretty scary right now, and giving me an opportunity to step out/reduce risk. Vix printing over 30 and market down 3.5% intraday usually leaves scars for more than one week...
    Oct 23, 2014. 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett's Bad Day [View article]
    Berkshire is taxed as a corporation... the tax rate is pretty high FYI... Also, that is assuming you could unwind at highs and then buy back at lows... You do know Berkshire positioning is in the tens of billions, what you can do at an individual level isn't very wise when managing positions as big as these. I as one wouldn't suggest selling the positions, even in retrospect...
    Oct 22, 2014. 10:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett's Bad Day [View article]
    The problem with Warren stocks like KO is that they tend to be overvalued because they are Warren stocks... But to conclude that buy and hold is overrated is a bit farfetched. Warren has close to 0 cost basis on his KO position, selling would trigger a whole lot of taxation, probably better to keep his KO even if returns average less than putting his $ elsewhere...
    Oct 22, 2014. 09:58 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying ZIV: A Better Option Than Shorting VXX [View article]
    Hi Billdf,
    Do not go with that strategy... Take a look at the recent correction, UVXY had a hardly better performance than VXX just because of the leverage linked rehedge carry... UVXY could maybe quadruple in a big correction, but I doubt we could get much better than that. It is probably one of the worst instruments to go long protection...
    Oct 22, 2014. 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying ZIV: A Better Option Than Shorting VXX [View article]
    I have to disagree with your plan because you will get burnt badly. At some point there will be a selloff without a bounce 3 days later, a selloff where vol will invert and where carry will be bad and for a relatively long time (try next time we have a recession on our hands)... And your plan is the best way to maximise your losses in that specific scenario...
    Oct 21, 2014. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
424 Comments
359 Likes