Alexander J. Poulos's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/584353/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1340701/comments?source=feed#comment-18742781 18742781
This comment is addressed to you. Since you called the author out stating "Please go back to Technical Analysis 101" and that DTV won't be seeing $60 anytime soon. In light of this weeks wonderful events, I believe an apology is due. ]]> Sun, 12 May 2013 18:31:15 -0400
This comment is addressed to you. Since you called the author out stating "Please go back to Technical Analysis 101" and that DTV won't be seeing $60 anytime soon. In light of this weeks wonderful events, I believe an apology is due. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1403681/comments?source=feed#comment-18560481 18560481
Agreed. Notice how its broken above 90 recently. Perhaps a run to new highs is in short order. Thanks for reading and commenting.]]> Tue, 07 May 2013 21:10:55 -0400
Agreed. Notice how its broken above 90 recently. Perhaps a run to new highs is in short order. Thanks for reading and commenting.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1403681/comments?source=feed#comment-18466241 18466241
You are welcome.]]> Sun, 05 May 2013 13:44:41 -0400
You are welcome.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1403681/comments?source=feed#comment-18465161 18465161
The underperformance experienced by XOM holders is due to the XTO acquisition and the subsequent fall in commodity prices. That being said we have seen natural gas prices perk up considerably (see chart in linked XOM article) along with strong downstream profits. Crude has been weak however the company has some new projects coming online such as the Kearl Canadian oil sand play that just went operational.

In that time frame XOM continued to buy down shares and raise dividends. I am bullish on them for the next five years and expect them to outperform the market. Thanks for reading and commenting.]]> Sun, 05 May 2013 13:11:43 -0400
The underperformance experienced by XOM holders is due to the XTO acquisition and the subsequent fall in commodity prices. That being said we have seen natural gas prices perk up considerably (see chart in linked XOM article) along with strong downstream profits. Crude has been weak however the company has some new projects coming online such as the Kearl Canadian oil sand play that just went operational.

In that time frame XOM continued to buy down shares and raise dividends. I am bullish on them for the next five years and expect them to outperform the market. Thanks for reading and commenting.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1403251/comments?source=feed#comment-18457201 18457201
Nice article. I am long BMY since last summer when it sold off on the news of the discontinuation of its HCV compound. I minor flaw I noticed in the article. In the last paragraph you mentioned earnings growth to $19.5 billion. Did you mean revenue growth instead? ]]> Sun, 05 May 2013 08:48:46 -0400
Nice article. I am long BMY since last summer when it sold off on the news of the discontinuation of its HCV compound. I minor flaw I noticed in the article. In the last paragraph you mentioned earnings growth to $19.5 billion. Did you mean revenue growth instead? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/938351/comments?source=feed#comment-18289251 18289251
The miss was a temporary blip. I get a kick out of all the so called experts advising not to buy IBM when the best in the world has clearly articulated his position. Buffett has purchased a huge stake in the company and continues to add. His average price was $170 not far from where it is currently trading. As of last quarter he was continuing to add to his position. That's good enough for me. Thanks for commenting.]]> Tue, 30 Apr 2013 17:32:18 -0400
The miss was a temporary blip. I get a kick out of all the so called experts advising not to buy IBM when the best in the world has clearly articulated his position. Buffett has purchased a huge stake in the company and continues to add. His average price was $170 not far from where it is currently trading. As of last quarter he was continuing to add to his position. That's good enough for me. Thanks for commenting.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/938351/comments?source=feed#comment-18285801 18285801
IBM continuing to deliver dividends to shareholders and more importantly significant buybacks. The company methodically plows money into buybacks which will benefit shareholders in the long run. Great news.]]> Tue, 30 Apr 2013 16:28:01 -0400
IBM continuing to deliver dividends to shareholders and more importantly significant buybacks. The company methodically plows money into buybacks which will benefit shareholders in the long run. Great news.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1365341/comments?source=feed#comment-18285421 18285421
You have given them wise advice and yet they choose to ignore it. There was an article in Bloomberg recently that showed the top 5 companies in the world based on market cap since 2000. XOM was on the list for every year and most years it was number one whereas the rest of the time the names fluctuated on and off the list. This speaks to XOM staying power and consistent excellence. Thanks for reading and commenting.]]> Tue, 30 Apr 2013 16:19:11 -0400
You have given them wise advice and yet they choose to ignore it. There was an article in Bloomberg recently that showed the top 5 companies in the world based on market cap since 2000. XOM was on the list for every year and most years it was number one whereas the rest of the time the names fluctuated on and off the list. This speaks to XOM staying power and consistent excellence. Thanks for reading and commenting.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1385151/comments?source=feed#comment-18279691 18279691
EXPD is an excellent well run company that I have been watching for the last couple of years. The company has consistently traded at a higher multiple than the market making it difficult for a long term value investor to eneter into a position. The company is over exposed to foreign trade especially to Asia. Unfortunatly trade has been sluggish as witnessed by EXPD and Fed Ex.

If the company misses earnings and makes a new low perhaps then it will be time to enter into a position but for now with global trade so sluggish I will pass. Great article and thanks for sharing.]]> Tue, 30 Apr 2013 14:20:58 -0400
EXPD is an excellent well run company that I have been watching for the last couple of years. The company has consistently traded at a higher multiple than the market making it difficult for a long term value investor to eneter into a position. The company is over exposed to foreign trade especially to Asia. Unfortunatly trade has been sluggish as witnessed by EXPD and Fed Ex.

If the company misses earnings and makes a new low perhaps then it will be time to enter into a position but for now with global trade so sluggish I will pass. Great article and thanks for sharing.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1385241/comments?source=feed#comment-18279321 18279321
a fair summation of whats going on with XOM. I noticed you focused on its upstream business yet failed to mention its natural gas component which makes up roughly half of its upstream revenue. With the siginificant jump in nat gas prices recently along with upcoming LNG terminals, XOM should mitigate this problem in the near future. For a more in depth discussion on the natural gas angle see http://seekingalpha.co...

I agree with the team that XOM is a fabulous capital allocater. Many on this site have taken management to task for not paying out higher dividends. In my opinion the current path is the best.]]> Tue, 30 Apr 2013 14:14:33 -0400
a fair summation of whats going on with XOM. I noticed you focused on its upstream business yet failed to mention its natural gas component which makes up roughly half of its upstream revenue. With the siginificant jump in nat gas prices recently along with upcoming LNG terminals, XOM should mitigate this problem in the near future. For a more in depth discussion on the natural gas angle see http://seekingalpha.co...

I agree with the team that XOM is a fabulous capital allocater. Many on this site have taken management to task for not paying out higher dividends. In my opinion the current path is the best.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1380081/comments?source=feed#comment-18237441 18237441
The euro will be devalued but not until after the German election in September. The euro devaluation will be the next great trade.]]> Mon, 29 Apr 2013 15:28:50 -0400
The euro will be devalued but not until after the German election in September. The euro devaluation will be the next great trade.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/924871/comments?source=feed#comment-18233711 18233711 GILD) sofosbuvir and Bristol-Myers Squibb's (BMY) daclatasvir cures 100% of hepatitis C patients in 12 weeks (including those who failed treatment with Vertex's (VRTX) Incivek and Merck's (MRK) Victrelis) and looks to be a better treatment option for those with genotype 3 than a combo of sofosbuvir and another GILD drug ledipasvir. The problem: "GILD very clearly wants to develop in-house," one clinician tells Bloomberg.

BMY looks to have a promising Hep C drug. Looks like the Hep C writedown may have been too hasty.]]> Mon, 29 Apr 2013 14:25:48 -0400 GILD) sofosbuvir and Bristol-Myers Squibb's (BMY) daclatasvir cures 100% of hepatitis C patients in 12 weeks (including those who failed treatment with Vertex's (VRTX) Incivek and Merck's (MRK) Victrelis) and looks to be a better treatment option for those with genotype 3 than a combo of sofosbuvir and another GILD drug ledipasvir. The problem: "GILD very clearly wants to develop in-house," one clinician tells Bloomberg.

BMY looks to have a promising Hep C drug. Looks like the Hep C writedown may have been too hasty.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1365341/comments?source=feed#comment-18233621 18233621 XOM) has finally started output at its C$12.9B ($12.7B) Kearl oil sands project in Alberta in Canada. The facility will produce 110,000 bpd of "resource" in its initial phase this year and 4.6B barrels over the next four decades. Kearl is operated by Exxon unit Imperial Oil

This is a major project that will help boost revenues and the bottom line.]]> Mon, 29 Apr 2013 14:23:55 -0400 XOM) has finally started output at its C$12.9B ($12.7B) Kearl oil sands project in Alberta in Canada. The facility will produce 110,000 bpd of "resource" in its initial phase this year and 4.6B barrels over the next four decades. Kearl is operated by Exxon unit Imperial Oil

This is a major project that will help boost revenues and the bottom line.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1365341/comments?source=feed#comment-18233511 18233511
Thanks for commenting. Buybacks can be far more profitable when executed properly. The best time to execute a buyback is when the company has stable revenues and margins along with a low p/e ratio. XOM fits the above criteria very nicely. The cash flow that they generate allows them to buyback a significant amount of shares raising the value of each corresponding share. Remember each share is a claim on future earnings that the company earns. Less shares means a higher percentage of the profit.

Now lets examine the key point here on XOM which is its recent severe underperformance. XOM has underperformed due to the XTO energy transaction combined with the cost of natural gas plummeting. As we can see from the chart I included in the article nat gas has been on a sharp upswing which should pad the bottom line nicely. The XTO energy deal transformed the revenue mix of the company to 50% gas and 50% oil so naturally a drop in nat gas would cause them to underperform a competitor such as CVX which is 65%oil 35% gas.

The key for investment returns is not what has happened in the past but where are we going from here. OIl prices have plateau here and are lower than last year where nat gas is on a strong upswing. What will really set the nat gas market on fire is when the LNG terminals are fully operational which is roughly less then 2 years out. Once they start exporting nat gas to say Japan where the price is more than 3 times the rate we get in the states, I expect XOM to outperform. In the interim while the stock is depressed the share float shrinks which will add a nice tailwind to profits. All that's needed here is patience to allow the story to play out. Hope the following summary helps.]]> Mon, 29 Apr 2013 14:21:46 -0400
Thanks for commenting. Buybacks can be far more profitable when executed properly. The best time to execute a buyback is when the company has stable revenues and margins along with a low p/e ratio. XOM fits the above criteria very nicely. The cash flow that they generate allows them to buyback a significant amount of shares raising the value of each corresponding share. Remember each share is a claim on future earnings that the company earns. Less shares means a higher percentage of the profit.

Now lets examine the key point here on XOM which is its recent severe underperformance. XOM has underperformed due to the XTO energy transaction combined with the cost of natural gas plummeting. As we can see from the chart I included in the article nat gas has been on a sharp upswing which should pad the bottom line nicely. The XTO energy deal transformed the revenue mix of the company to 50% gas and 50% oil so naturally a drop in nat gas would cause them to underperform a competitor such as CVX which is 65%oil 35% gas.

The key for investment returns is not what has happened in the past but where are we going from here. OIl prices have plateau here and are lower than last year where nat gas is on a strong upswing. What will really set the nat gas market on fire is when the LNG terminals are fully operational which is roughly less then 2 years out. Once they start exporting nat gas to say Japan where the price is more than 3 times the rate we get in the states, I expect XOM to outperform. In the interim while the stock is depressed the share float shrinks which will add a nice tailwind to profits. All that's needed here is patience to allow the story to play out. Hope the following summary helps.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1365341/comments?source=feed#comment-18096271 18096271
Your welcome. Covered call writing on a stable company such as this is a great way to augment your dividends. thanks for reading and commenting.]]> Thu, 25 Apr 2013 15:41:39 -0400
Your welcome. Covered call writing on a stable company such as this is a great way to augment your dividends. thanks for reading and commenting.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1365341/comments?source=feed#comment-18070631 18070631
I look at the dividend boost in terms of an annual raise. wish I could get the same at work. I am sure you are a happy shareholder as well. Thanks for reading and commenting.]]> Thu, 25 Apr 2013 08:17:55 -0400
I look at the dividend boost in terms of an annual raise. wish I could get the same at work. I am sure you are a happy shareholder as well. Thanks for reading and commenting.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1365341/comments?source=feed#comment-18049191 18049191
You aren't the only one who's happy about it. I am a bit surprised they announced today instead of with earnings tomorrow.. I am certainly not complaining though.]]> Wed, 24 Apr 2013 16:55:21 -0400
You aren't the only one who's happy about it. I am a bit surprised they announced today instead of with earnings tomorrow.. I am certainly not complaining though.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1365341/comments?source=feed#comment-18047911 18047911 XOM) declares $0.63/share quarterly dividend, 10.5% increase from prior dividend of $0.57. Forward yield 2.81%. For shareholders of record May 13. Payable June 10. Ex-div date May 09

A nice raise.]]> Wed, 24 Apr 2013 16:34:39 -0400 XOM) declares $0.63/share quarterly dividend, 10.5% increase from prior dividend of $0.57. Forward yield 2.81%. For shareholders of record May 13. Payable June 10. Ex-div date May 09

A nice raise.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1365341/comments?source=feed#comment-18047001 18047001
Dividend yield is just part of the equation. I look for strong stable companies with excellent capital allocation plans. XOM aggressive buyback and dividend make it superior in my opinion to Chevron at these levels. Combined witht he factthat Natural gas has started to take off the revenue mix will become more favorable for XOM due to the 50/50 split in production. Chevron gets a 65/35 split.

Feel free to follow me, I am working on another article detailing two large cap companies with outstanding capital allocation plans. thanks for reading and commenting.]]> Wed, 24 Apr 2013 16:25:05 -0400
Dividend yield is just part of the equation. I look for strong stable companies with excellent capital allocation plans. XOM aggressive buyback and dividend make it superior in my opinion to Chevron at these levels. Combined witht he factthat Natural gas has started to take off the revenue mix will become more favorable for XOM due to the 50/50 split in production. Chevron gets a 65/35 split.

Feel free to follow me, I am working on another article detailing two large cap companies with outstanding capital allocation plans. thanks for reading and commenting.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1365341/comments?source=feed#comment-18046361 18046361
I looked at the corresponding long term history of XOM. The returns that have been generated are tremendous. What jumped out at me here is at these levels the shares have severely underperformed the market. I expect that to correct itself in the near future and XOM may out perform here.

Buying some here at these rates combined with their capital allocation plan offers a compelling risk reward relationship. Thanks for sharing your experiences and for taking the time to read and comment.]]> Wed, 24 Apr 2013 16:12:40 -0400
I looked at the corresponding long term history of XOM. The returns that have been generated are tremendous. What jumped out at me here is at these levels the shares have severely underperformed the market. I expect that to correct itself in the near future and XOM may out perform here.

Buying some here at these rates combined with their capital allocation plan offers a compelling risk reward relationship. Thanks for sharing your experiences and for taking the time to read and comment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1365341/comments?source=feed#comment-18046131 18046131 Wed, 24 Apr 2013 16:08:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1365341/comments?source=feed#comment-18033011 18033011 XOM) may be the most likely partner, according to PNG Industry News. IOC also says it has adopted a new shareholder rights plan and bylaws, though there's no report of takeover interest

This would certainly blend well with XOM already existing commitments to the area. LNG to Asia is becoming more of a reality.]]> Wed, 24 Apr 2013 11:33:14 -0400 XOM) may be the most likely partner, according to PNG Industry News. IOC also says it has adopted a new shareholder rights plan and bylaws, though there's no report of takeover interest

This would certainly blend well with XOM already existing commitments to the area. LNG to Asia is becoming more of a reality.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1365341/comments?source=feed#comment-18029021 18029021
Correct, this is predominatly due to the drop in natural gas prices. As we can see from the data reported the price of natural gas is in a sustained upswing which should nicely agemnt XOM bottom line.

XOM is unfairly criticzed for not paying a higher dividend. The buybacks are a far better method of capital returns. In a few years don't be surprised if XOM total return outpaces the S%P.

Thanks for reading and commenting.]]> Wed, 24 Apr 2013 10:10:37 -0400
Correct, this is predominatly due to the drop in natural gas prices. As we can see from the data reported the price of natural gas is in a sustained upswing which should nicely agemnt XOM bottom line.

XOM is unfairly criticzed for not paying a higher dividend. The buybacks are a far better method of capital returns. In a few years don't be surprised if XOM total return outpaces the S%P.

Thanks for reading and commenting.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1340701/comments?source=feed#comment-17910691 17910691 Sun, 21 Apr 2013 18:45:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1274071/comments?source=feed#comment-17446041 17446041
Feel free to ignore, however since you took the time out to respond I will offer my rebuttal to your points. The dollar is not weakening and in fact has strengthened which is a surprise that few expected. Notice how it is trading against the yen and to a lesser effect the Euro. Not to belabor the point however it is well worth addressing again a stronger dollar will cap oil prices. Along with higher fuel miles and the abundance of natural gas coming on board oil will simply not take off from here.

You made reference to when Obama and Bernanke are dismissed a return to normalcy. The price of oil was extremely stable in the 90's and actually failed to keep pace with inflation. Do not be lulled into a false sense of security that oil will constantly go up. The key for oil is supply and the power of the currency it is priced in. As more supply comes on board coupled with better efficiency and an appreciating currency an ascending price is not in the cards.

A disruption to supply similar to when Saddam Hussein invading Kuwait can lead to a sharp price spike however slowing economic growth similar to what Asia went through in the late 90's early 2000's led to a massive slump in the price of oil. Both can happen yet I view them as anomalies.

You are correct, I sold before I published the article and hence the title. I haven't entered into a short position nor will I. The money was reinvested in YCS which has performed marvelously.]]> Wed, 10 Apr 2013 10:17:42 -0400
Feel free to ignore, however since you took the time out to respond I will offer my rebuttal to your points. The dollar is not weakening and in fact has strengthened which is a surprise that few expected. Notice how it is trading against the yen and to a lesser effect the Euro. Not to belabor the point however it is well worth addressing again a stronger dollar will cap oil prices. Along with higher fuel miles and the abundance of natural gas coming on board oil will simply not take off from here.

You made reference to when Obama and Bernanke are dismissed a return to normalcy. The price of oil was extremely stable in the 90's and actually failed to keep pace with inflation. Do not be lulled into a false sense of security that oil will constantly go up. The key for oil is supply and the power of the currency it is priced in. As more supply comes on board coupled with better efficiency and an appreciating currency an ascending price is not in the cards.

A disruption to supply similar to when Saddam Hussein invading Kuwait can lead to a sharp price spike however slowing economic growth similar to what Asia went through in the late 90's early 2000's led to a massive slump in the price of oil. Both can happen yet I view them as anomalies.

You are correct, I sold before I published the article and hence the title. I haven't entered into a short position nor will I. The money was reinvested in YCS which has performed marvelously.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1309491/comments?source=feed#comment-17106741 17106741 Tue, 02 Apr 2013 09:13:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1311711/comments?source=feed#comment-17069121 17069121
Thanks for the positive mention in your article.]]> Mon, 01 Apr 2013 10:57:14 -0400
Thanks for the positive mention in your article.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1309491/comments?source=feed#comment-17068941 17068941 Mon, 01 Apr 2013 10:55:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1309491/comments?source=feed#comment-17062341 17062341
Well said. I believe you have summed it up marvelously! Thanks for reading and commenting.]]> Mon, 01 Apr 2013 08:43:53 -0400
Well said. I believe you have summed it up marvelously! Thanks for reading and commenting.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1309491/comments?source=feed#comment-17061441 17061441
John Chambers has been the CEO of CSCO since the 90's. He oversaw its rapid growth and has presided over its stagnation this last decade. Innovation hasn't stopped under his watch instead we have witnessed multiple contraction as the business has matured and become a more low growth operation.

I am bullish on INTC and CSCO precisely because they have underperformed. I look to enter long term positions in companies that are unloved and they both meet that criteria. As for what will happen if they market crashes? The more overvalued companies will fall the most whereas the cheaper ones have far less to fall.

Thanks for reading and commenting.]]> Mon, 01 Apr 2013 08:22:06 -0400
John Chambers has been the CEO of CSCO since the 90's. He oversaw its rapid growth and has presided over its stagnation this last decade. Innovation hasn't stopped under his watch instead we have witnessed multiple contraction as the business has matured and become a more low growth operation.

I am bullish on INTC and CSCO precisely because they have underperformed. I look to enter long term positions in companies that are unloved and they both meet that criteria. As for what will happen if they market crashes? The more overvalued companies will fall the most whereas the cheaper ones have far less to fall.

Thanks for reading and commenting.]]>