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  • Is A Synergy Pharmaceuticals Buyout Already In Place? [View article]
    Your share count is off. Really 186M shares after warrants, etc.. are included.

    So, 2.8B / 186M = $15.05/shr.

    Which I still believe is low.

    SGYP has:
    Plecanatide = multi-billion-dollar blockbuster
    Dolcanatide = multi-billion-dollar blockbuster
    Both 100% owned (no partner interest).

    Compare IRWD with Linzess.

    Linzess = first in class but bad side effects.
    50% owned by IRWD, 50% by forest.
    IRWD valued at $1.5B ($10 a share). IRWD just turned down a $30 per share offer. Meaning **SOMEONE** valued IRWD at 4.5B.

    By my count:

    IRWD - 50% of 1 drug. Meh marketability. Valued at $1.5 B. Buyout value offered $4.5B (offer was rejected, too low).

    SGYP - 100% of 2 drugs. (note this is 4x of IRWD's ownership). Fantastic marketability. Valued at $0.8 B.

    Surely a valuation for SGYP of $4.5B similar to IRWD's value is indicated here (and even that may prove a conservative value).

    The author's $2.8B valuation for (Plec + Dolc) is on the ridiculously low end, IMHO.
    Jul 27, 2015. 11:06 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tanker Tanks: Term Structure In Oil Screams 'Buy The Dip!' [View article]
    What they really want is for the oil to be left in the ground.

    That is why you cannot see a logical reason why they would not support a pipeline that would reduce CO2 loading (as opposed to rail).
    Feb 17, 2015. 01:50 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lower crude prices could affect fracking sand, despite continued strong demand [View news story]

    Drilling/completion costs are nearly fixed (for a given well) despite the variable pricing of the well's output (oil/gas/distillate).

    Proppant costs are a small fraction of total drilling/completion costs.

    If heavier use of proppant during frac stim leads to increased production of (oil/gas/distillate) vs. lighter use of proppant (hint: it almost always does), the motivation to use more proppant is still very high.

    Possibly higher if you consider that as profits go down (price of oil/gas/distillates), the focus on efficiency goes up. A small increase in cost (more proppant) leading to a significant improvement in production quantity is still a very good investment, nearly every time.
    Nov 20, 2014. 01:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hi-Crush, frac sand plays slide after Cramer says investors should avoid [View news story]
    Northern White *FRAC* sand is not just sand. That's what you're missing.

    Normal sand sells for ~$15 a ton.

    Northern White sells for ~$75 a ton.

    Extraction costs are comparable. Slightly higher for Northern White, as it needs to be filtered and binned correctly (for particle size and roundness).
    Sep 25, 2014. 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hi-Crush, frac sand plays slide after Cramer says investors should avoid [View news story]
    Funny part is a few days earlier he was all: "The Best Energy Stock EVAR: EMES". Make up your mind.
    Sep 25, 2014. 08:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hi-Crush, frac sand plays slide after Cramer says investors should avoid [View news story]
    It's not as if other alternatives haven't been explored.. CRR is losing huge market share to HCLP/EMES/SLCA because it's manufactured ceramic proppant cannot compete on price to Northern White sand, and is only marginally more effective.

    Sand is as cheap as it's going to get for proppant materials, it appears.
    Sep 23, 2014. 01:27 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Oil & Gas Companies To Buy On Attractive Forward P/E And PEG Ratios [View article]
    Listening to the IPAA OGIS presentation from June 5, 2014 (around the 12 minute mark) and reading between the lines (and based on the increased $190MM capex that they mention), it sure sounds like 10k Bbl/d exit rate for 2014 is likely.

    Also, there is a possible catalyst coming up, Abraxas appears to be presenting at IPAA OGIS San Francisco on Monday 9/22 at 1:30pm.

    Hopefully the stock price will pop in a similar manner to just after the April 2014 IPAA OGIS New York presentation.
    Sep 15, 2014. 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Oil & Gas Companies To Buy On Attractive Forward P/E And PEG Ratios [View article]
    Long AXAS. Huge value on the table right now, ready for the taking. Listen to the Q2 call. It sounded very strongly like they were going to hit 10k Bbl/d by end of year (2014 exit rate).

    I believe the current (unrevised) 8k Bbl/d 2014 exit rate estimate is significantly understating the actual situation.
    Sep 15, 2014. 01:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abraxas Petroleum: My First Trade For Monday [View article]
    I too hope it stays north of $5.

    The 12/2014 $5 CALL and 3/2015 $5.00 / $7.50 CALL look ripe for significant appreciation, assuming oil stays north of $90 or so.

    Disclosure: Long AXAS shares and calls.
    Aug 25, 2014. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abraxas Petroleum's (AXAS) CEO Robert L. G. Watson on Q2 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    It appears that they are trying to sell it.

    Which seems silly to me since it sits right on top of a historical meteor strike site and likely has a fair amount of hydrocarbons in the basin created by said meteor strike.

    However it may be that the "known good commodity" - Bakken/EagleFord - is better / more economical than the "unknown commodity" - Duvernay.
    Aug 7, 2014. 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abraxas Petroleum beats by $0.03, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Agreed. They're killing it. Long.
    Aug 6, 2014. 07:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Abraxas says Q2 production beat guidance [View news story]
    Indeed it was.
    Aug 4, 2014. 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman eyeing online brokers as trading business disappears? [View news story]
    If you believe that ANYTHING other than technology+competition reduced your $200 trade fee to $7 or so, you would be wrong.

    HFT usually actually *INCREASES* fees on normal retail investors due to HFT being able to "shop" around for the largest "liquidity-add" rebate (from the exchange) for a given potential trade. Those rebates are paid with the fees from (slow/dumb/etc..) retail investors.
    Jul 1, 2014. 06:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullard: Forget about Q1 GDP report [View news story]
    Or, newly insured people, instead of having to bear 100% of the (enormously overpriced) Hospital "Charge Master" prices for their healthcare, now only have to pay their (relatively small) monthly premium costs, along with their (relatively small) co-payments.

    In this scenario, a $200/month prescription very quickly goes to $10-$20, and a $50,000 procedure very quickly goes to $500 or less.

    Those kind of swings in "actual-to-the-consume... will put lots of dollars back in the hands of the people buying policies.

    Net Net.. We are talking about hospitals making less money. Patients beholden to those hospitals will be keeping more of their money.
    Jun 26, 2014. 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell-side questions $10B penalty for Citi [View news story]
    This silliness is what happens after "corporations are people, my friend" (Hint: THEY ARE *NOT*).
    Jun 16, 2014. 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment