Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View wh3928's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The Uncertainty Of Gold [View article]
    Gold bug speculating on gold price based on global, regional GDP busness, consumer sentiments, related inflation, US dollar , oil, commodity price.
    EURO recession, China PMI plunged twice below 50 contraction, US ISM plunge to 49.2 , US CPI drop to 1.2 % , strong US dollar due risk aversion, and Yen depreciaiton are responisble recent gold price 30 % plunge to 1200.
    I predicted Gold price rebound.from 1200 recommended buy next year GLD future at 1200 and any futre new low, gainst short gold price rebound to new high ( 1300).
    Gold price rebound from 1200 to 1257 in last two days responding to Japan June business spending rebound 5.9 %, lead Nikkei rebound from 12800 to 13800, and sstrong US housing sales, price rebound .
    Jul 1 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Did The PBOC Blink? Um, Yes [View article]
    PBOC will continue its open arket operation removng excessive liquidity frm real estate shadow banks specuation to cut m2 fro 16 % to 13 %
    Jun 28 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan: No News Is Bad News [View article]
    BOJ give very clear signal, just the speculators do not like its they wanted like our Fed to keep the marekt bulls happy by more stimulus
    which BOJ said give 10 times buy bond to stabalize bond, and happy with the econoic progress in consumers and busliness, leadng to Yen appreciation to 96 and Nikkei plunged 20 % which are normal correction, BOJ does not like built up huge Nikkei bubble like 1988 with inflatio at 0.87 % , Nikkei doubled, real estae bubble developd,
    As I warned 1986 o Tokyo WOrld Congress that US, Japan exessive liquidity lead to 1987 Dow Jones crash, Tokyo housing bubble burst, Nikkei crash 80 %
    Jun 14 07:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Soaring volatility on the Nikkei isn't stopping investors from scooping up options "with something approaching glee," according to SIG's derivatives team (for the uninitiated, higher vols mean higher options prices). Most of the buying in the Japan ETF space is in the form of calls as dip buyers do what they've become accustomed to doing. Two popular ones, EWJ and DXJ are off nearly 10% since Wed. afternoon. [View news story]
    Excessive institutional investors speculation over Japan QE excessive liquidity flooded the financial markets resulted extremely prices overshooting 70 % gain, even more than monetary liquidity gain of 50 % , as m2 increased from 2.2 % to 3.3 % in April., despite 1 Q GDP soared to 3.5%, household spending up 5.2 %, export up 3.2 %, however, business spending drop 0.9 %, country still in defaltion.
    The Nikkei index soared 70 % to 15800, ignoring all global economic weaknesss, including EURO recession, China 1Q 7.7 % GDP slowdown and monetary tightening from 16 to 13 % for housing bubble contraol and recetn US manufacturing ISM plunged to 51.6.
    Finally , mini buble burst , plunged 7.5 % reacting to US Fed possible scale down of QE in summer and China May PMI plunged into 49.6 contractionall will drag Japan 2Q GDP, April trade deficit soared 70 % to 866 billion due to soaring import prices casued by Yen depreciation.will drag Yen into further weakness and cutting into 2Q GDP .
    Nikkei is currently consolidating in 13900- 15,000 , until further real economic improvement, will be draged by Dow Jones correction due to Fed any QE exit expectation
    May 24 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Rally A Function Of Liquidity And Speculation [View article]
    I have tracking accurately ahead last 30 years global institutioal investors speculation over central banks lqiuidity impact on market liquidity ( stock indices prices) industrail sectors demand, asset liquidity prices.
    I appied these country, sectors, asset specific liquidity based asset pricesing mechanism warning World Congress Tokyo 1986 that US
    m2 growth at 10 % excessive liquidity will lead to 1987 crash and Japan 9 % m2 grwoth led to 1989- 1990 Nikkei soared to 38800, housing bubble 650 % ( 1980 m2 soared to 13.6 ), 1990 cut m2 to -3 % can not stop bubble growth.
    and 2007 US m2 at 10 % drove Dow Jone and housing bubble peaking out and burst i n 2008.
    2010 May 6 m2 groth plunge to 3 % led one day Dow Jones flash crash of 1000.
    Speculation over US stocks and Japan, EURO stocks at record peak, Nikkei soared 50 % following QE while EURO facng recession, US, China manufacturig facing contraction.
    business incestment only up 3 %.
    real estate, construction REIT ETF saored 1000 % since 2009.
    US and global stock bubble facing burst in near future QE exits. Pudong
    May 17 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Warren, IBM Is Too Risky [View article]
    I knew it by my proactive sturctural analysis of global econmic impact on IBM earning, It is hard to sustain its profitability to fight global recesison, slowdowm without brekthrough innovation, cloud technology is just another software approach
    IBM stock have to go to 180- 200
    Apr 26 05:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs Predicts 349 IPOs In China In 2013 [View article]
    GS is overoptimistic over China GDP, capital market outlook this year to project 347.
    Ignoring China facing economic transition, reform, continued macro inflation, housing bubble control lead to GDP target of only
    7.5 %, and money supply grwoth below 13 % which will drag A share market to bear market correction.
    IPO activity will be much below last around 200 at most..
    CSRC have not finsihed regulate its IPO busines, aimed to correction excessive speculation to high IPO, high P/E and trading irregularity.
    Apr 11 08:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Stock Prices Continue To Rise, Earnings Continue To Decline [View article]
    Global institutioal investors speculate on US, Japan, ECB QE make market sentiments to multiyear high, ignoring economic problems of recession fear, the inflation, bond bubble s, the declining earning already reaching the limit for bullishness. time for cooloff and hedging against downside risks
    Feb 12 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Bright Spot In China - Not Really That Bright [View article]
    I witness this situation over a year ago when I was in Shanghai, that Apple is losing it market share and under sevre pricing pressure with shrinking profit margin. I predicted Appls stock will plunge from 725 to 450 after Sept IPHONE announcement.
    Apple must responese with products, technical, market, management innovation breakthrough to correct the situation before its stosck rebound from 450.
    Feb 6 04:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned From An Apple Bull [View article]
    We are all overoptimistic about Apple's IPHONE market shares without looking into its global cost performance in US and Asian markets.
    I decided to hedge ( 100 % short as early as early last year When I was in Shanghai, evaluating top Iphone supplier performance , WE found Apple rank no. 6, behind Samsung and other Chinese suppliers.
    Those products are much more intelligent than IPHONE< at fraction of price
    I decideed to short Apple on Sept IPHONE news announcement
    stock rice peaking at 725, I predicted it would go to 400- 450.
    It will be drag lower to 350 if market sentiment is getting worse, at NASDAQ correction.
    I found similar story in Apple IPAD facing threat from Tablet.
    Accoring to last 25 years recession recovery, Outperform momentum strategy fail in serious market share decline PE ratio is not reliable .
    it can go to below 5.0 , if Apple do not have any technology, management, market innovation to stop the bad news from declining market share
    Jan 28 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned From An Apple Bull [View article]
    Apple need technology, products R&D, market, management innovation to give investors confidence as how to stop current
    market shares deceline, before that you need combined long/ short hedging strategy
    Jan 28 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment