Market Rally A Function Of Liquidity And Speculation [View article]
I have tracking accurately ahead last 30 years global institutioal investors speculation over central banks lqiuidity impact on market liquidity ( stock indices prices) industrail sectors demand, asset liquidity prices. I appied these country, sectors, asset specific liquidity based asset pricesing mechanism warning World Congress Tokyo 1986 that US m2 growth at 10 % excessive liquidity will lead to 1987 crash and Japan 9 % m2 grwoth led to 1989- 1990 Nikkei soared to 38800, housing bubble 650 % ( 1980 m2 soared to 13.6 ), 1990 cut m2 to -3 % can not stop bubble growth. and 2007 US m2 at 10 % drove Dow Jone and housing bubble peaking out and burst i n 2008. 2010 May 6 m2 groth plunge to 3 % led one day Dow Jones flash crash of 1000. Speculation over US stocks and Japan, EURO stocks at record peak, Nikkei soared 50 % following QE while EURO facng recession, US, China manufacturig facing contraction. business incestment only up 3 %. real estate, construction REIT ETF saored 1000 % since 2009. US and global stock bubble facing burst in near future QE exits.
I knew it by my proactive sturctural analysis of global econmic impact on IBM earning, It is hard to sustain its profitability to fight global recesison, slowdowm without brekthrough innovation, cloud technology is just another software approach IBM stock have to go to 180- 200
Goldman Sachs Predicts 349 IPOs In China In 2013 [View article]
GS is overoptimistic over China GDP, capital market outlook this year to project 347. Ignoring China facing economic transition, reform, continued macro inflation, housing bubble control lead to GDP target of only 7.5 %, and money supply grwoth below 13 % which will drag A share market to bear market correction. IPO activity will be much below last around 200 at most.. CSRC have not finsihed regulate its IPO busines, aimed to correction excessive speculation to high IPO, high P/E and trading irregularity.
As Stock Prices Continue To Rise, Earnings Continue To Decline [View article]
Global institutioal investors speculate on US, Japan, ECB QE make market sentiments to multiyear high, ignoring economic problems of recession fear, the inflation, bond bubble s, the declining earning already reaching the limit for bullishness. time for cooloff and hedging against downside risks
Apple's Bright Spot In China - Not Really That Bright [View article]
I witness this situation over a year ago when I was in Shanghai, that Apple is losing it market share and under sevre pricing pressure with shrinking profit margin. I predicted Appls stock will plunge from 725 to 450 after Sept IPHONE announcement. Apple must responese with products, technical, market, management innovation breakthrough to correct the situation before its stosck rebound from 450.
We are all overoptimistic about Apple's IPHONE market shares without looking into its global cost performance in US and Asian markets. I decided to hedge ( 100 % short as early as early last year When I was in Shanghai, evaluating top Iphone supplier performance , WE found Apple rank no. 6, behind Samsung and other Chinese suppliers. Those products are much more intelligent than IPHONE< at fraction of price I decideed to short Apple on Sept IPHONE news announcement stock rice peaking at 725, I predicted it would go to 400- 450. It will be drag lower to 350 if market sentiment is getting worse, at NASDAQ correction. I found similar story in Apple IPAD facing threat from Tablet. Accoring to last 25 years recession recovery, Outperform momentum strategy fail in serious market share decline PE ratio is not reliable . it can go to below 5.0 , if Apple do not have any technology, management, market innovation to stop the bad news from declining market share
Apple need technology, products R&D, market, management innovation to give investors confidence as how to stop current market shares deceline, before that you need combined long/ short hedging strategy
Market Rally A Function Of Liquidity And Speculation [View article]
I appied these country, sectors, asset specific liquidity based asset pricesing mechanism warning World Congress Tokyo 1986 that US
m2 growth at 10 % excessive liquidity will lead to 1987 crash and Japan 9 % m2 grwoth led to 1989- 1990 Nikkei soared to 38800, housing bubble 650 % ( 1980 m2 soared to 13.6 ), 1990 cut m2 to -3 % can not stop bubble growth.
and 2007 US m2 at 10 % drove Dow Jone and housing bubble peaking out and burst i n 2008.
2010 May 6 m2 groth plunge to 3 % led one day Dow Jones flash crash of 1000.
Speculation over US stocks and Japan, EURO stocks at record peak, Nikkei soared 50 % following QE while EURO facng recession, US, China manufacturig facing contraction.
business incestment only up 3 %.
real estate, construction REIT ETF saored 1000 % since 2009.
US and global stock bubble facing burst in near future QE exits.
http://bit.ly/16thrPl Pudong
Sorry Warren, IBM Is Too Risky [View article]
IBM stock have to go to 180- 200
Goldman Sachs Predicts 349 IPOs In China In 2013 [View article]
Ignoring China facing economic transition, reform, continued macro inflation, housing bubble control lead to GDP target of only
7.5 %, and money supply grwoth below 13 % which will drag A share market to bear market correction.
IPO activity will be much below last around 200 at most..
CSRC have not finsihed regulate its IPO busines, aimed to correction excessive speculation to high IPO, high P/E and trading irregularity.
As Stock Prices Continue To Rise, Earnings Continue To Decline [View article]
Apple's Bright Spot In China - Not Really That Bright [View article]
Apple must responese with products, technical, market, management innovation breakthrough to correct the situation before its stosck rebound from 450.
Lessons Learned From An Apple Bull [View article]
I decided to hedge ( 100 % short as early as early last year When I was in Shanghai, evaluating top Iphone supplier performance , WE found Apple rank no. 6, behind Samsung and other Chinese suppliers.
Those products are much more intelligent than IPHONE< at fraction of price
I decideed to short Apple on Sept IPHONE news announcement
stock rice peaking at 725, I predicted it would go to 400- 450.
It will be drag lower to 350 if market sentiment is getting worse, at NASDAQ correction.
I found similar story in Apple IPAD facing threat from Tablet.
Accoring to last 25 years recession recovery, Outperform momentum strategy fail in serious market share decline PE ratio is not reliable .
it can go to below 5.0 , if Apple do not have any technology, management, market innovation to stop the bad news from declining market share
Lessons Learned From An Apple Bull [View article]
market shares deceline, before that you need combined long/ short hedging strategy